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  • stemellor
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 03-22-13
    • 631

    #386
    21 August

    Parlay:
    Atletico vs Barcelona & Chelsea vs Villa - BTTS

    ​2.5 units @ 3.0 on Coral
    Comment
    • stemellor
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 03-22-13
      • 631

      #387
      22 August

      Parlay: Europa League Qualifiers:

      Estoril ML, Udinese ML, Swansea ML & Salzburg vs Zalgiris O2.5

      2 units @ 3.59 on Ladbrokes
      Comment
      • stemellor
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 03-22-13
        • 631

        #388
        Originally posted by stemellor
        Parlay:
        Tampines Rovers ML, Balestier Khalsa DNB (both Singapore S League) & Guangzhou Evergrande ML (ACL)

        ​1 unit @ 4.4 on Paddy Power
        Originally posted by stemellor
        Parlay:
        Atletico vs Barcelona & Chelsea vs Villa - BTTS

        ​2.5 units @ 3.0 on Coral
        1-1 today and +4 units
        Comment
        • stemellor
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 03-22-13
          • 631

          #389
          Originally posted by stemellor
          Parlay: Europa League Qualifiers:

          Estoril ML, Udinese ML, Swansea ML & Salzburg vs Zalgiris O2.5

          2 units @ 3.59 on Ladbrokes
          0-1 today -2 units

          ​Overall record: 74.5-76-8.5. +25.8 units
          Comment
          • stemellor
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 03-22-13
            • 631

            #390
            23 August

            Parlay:
            Borussia Dortmund ML, Monaco ML, Heerenveen vs Ajax O2.5 & Lokomotiva vs Zadar O2.5

            ​2 units @ 4.03 on Paddy Power
            Comment
            • vasilli07
              SBR MVP
              • 05-08-11
              • 3955

              #391
              Damn Udinese!!!
              Comment
              • stemellor
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 03-22-13
                • 631

                #392
                Originally posted by vasilli07
                Damn Udinese!!!
                I know. Really didn't see them losing this after such good results in the last round. Liberec are a decent team, but not in the same class as Udinese.
                Comment
                • vasilli07
                  SBR MVP
                  • 05-08-11
                  • 3955

                  #393
                  Originally posted by stemellor
                  I know. Really didn't see them losing this after such good results in the last round. Liberec are a decent team, but not in the same class as Udinese.
                  I just read the match report.

                  Udinese’s frustration was palpable, as they notched up 14 corners to 0 and 27 shots on goal to seven, not to mention hitting the woodwork three times.
                  Comment
                  • stemellor
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 03-22-13
                    • 631

                    #394
                    Originally posted by vasilli07
                    I just read the match report.
                    Ah, good to know, thanks. Decent pick, just unlucky by the sounds of things. Worth checking Liberec's next few games. They were hot at the end of last season and they look on a decent run again now
                    Comment
                    • stemellor
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 03-22-13
                      • 631

                      #395
                      Originally posted by stemellor
                      Parlay:
                      Borussia Dortmund ML, Monaco ML, Heerenveen vs Ajax O2.5 & Lokomotiva vs Zadar O2.5

                      ​2 units @ 4.03 on Paddy Power
                      -2 units for today
                      Comment
                      • stemellor
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 03-22-13
                        • 631

                        #396
                        24 August

                        Parlay:
                        All Japan J1 - Sanfrecce ML, Albirex Niigata vs Frontale O2.5 & Iwata vs Tokyo O2.5
                        3 units @ 4.09 on Coral

                        Japan J1 - Yokohama F Marinos ML
                        2 units @ 2.5 on Pinny
                        Comment
                        • stemellor
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 03-22-13
                          • 631

                          #397
                          24 August

                          Latvia Virsliga - Ventspils ML
                          To win 1 unit @ 1.95 on Sportingbet

                          England League 2 - Burton Albion ML
                          2 units @ 2.16 on Pinny

                          Parlay:
                          Both England League 2 - Burton Albion ML & Northampton ML
                          1 unit @ 4.73 on Bet365
                          Comment
                          • stemellor
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 03-22-13
                            • 631

                            #398
                            Originally posted by stemellor
                            Parlay:
                            All Japan J1 - Sanfrecce ML, Albirex Niigata vs Frontale O2.5 & Iwata vs Tokyo O2.5
                            3 units @ 4.09 on Coral

                            Japan J1 - Yokohama F Marinos ML
                            2 units @ 2.5 on Pinny
                            Originally posted by stemellor
                            Latvia Virsliga - Ventspils ML
                            To win 1 unit @ 1.95 on Sportingbet


                            England League 2 - Burton Albion ML
                            2 units @ 2.16 on Pinny


                            Parlay:
                            Both England League 2 - Burton Albion ML & Northampton ML
                            1 unit @ 4.73 on Bet365
                            Bad day yesterday -7 units. Ventspils the only winner
                            1-4
                            Comment
                            • stemellor
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 03-22-13
                              • 631

                              #399
                              25 August

                              Brazil Serie A: Atletico Mineiro vs Portuguesa
                              U2.5 goals @ 2.0 on Coral. 2.5 units

                              Parlay:
                              Bahia ML (Brazil Serie A), Barcelona ML, Atletico Madrid ML & River Plate vs Colon U2.5 (Argentina Primera Division)
                              2.5 units @ 4.64 on Bet 365
                              Comment
                              • stemellor
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 03-22-13
                                • 631

                                #400
                                Originally posted by stemellor
                                Brazil Serie A: Atletico Mineiro vs Portuguesa
                                U2.5 goals @ 2.0 on Coral. 2.5 units

                                Parlay:
                                Bahia ML (Brazil Serie A), Barcelona ML, Atletico Madrid ML & River Plate vs Colon U2.5 (Argentina Primera Division)
                                2.5 units @ 4.64 on Bet 365
                                0-2 -5 units. Injury time goal in Brazil and a late goal in the the River game sends both games over

                                Overall record: 75.5-83-8.5. +11.8 units
                                Comment
                                • stemellor
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 03-22-13
                                  • 631

                                  #401
                                  26 August

                                  BTTS Parlay:
                                  Man Utd vs Chelsea & Aab vs Midtylland

                                  ​3.5 units @ 2.59 on Ladbrokes
                                  Comment
                                  • stemellor
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 03-22-13
                                    • 631

                                    #402
                                    Originally posted by stemellor
                                    BTTS Parlay:
                                    Man Utd vs Chelsea & Aab vs Midtylland

                                    ​3.5 units @ 2.59 on Ladbrokes
                                    0-1 yesterday. -3.5 units
                                    Comment
                                    • stemellor
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 03-22-13
                                      • 631

                                      #403
                                      27 August

                                      Parlay:
                                      Kaizer Chiefs ML (South Africa PL) & NOB ML (Argentina Inicial)
                                      2.5 units @ 2.94 on Betsson (better odds available here, but they changed from 3.23 just as I was submitting)

                                      Bayern Munich to win to nil
                                      1 unit @ 2.15 on Ladbrokes
                                      Comment
                                      • stemellor
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 03-22-13
                                        • 631

                                        #404
                                        14 September

                                        Brazil Serie B:

                                        Sport vs Figueirense. New manager for Sport, who is training the team with an emphasis on defence. Sport shouldn't have problems going forwards with Marcos Aurelio in the team. As long as they can concentrate at the back I think they should win this.

                                        1 unit on Sport ML @ 1.8 on Sportingbet
                                        Comment
                                        • stemellor
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 03-22-13
                                          • 631

                                          #405
                                          18 September

                                          Quick parlay for tonight:

                                          Slovan Bratislava ML, Chelsea ML, Barca ML & Orlando Pirates ML

                                          1 unit @ 2.36 on Paddy Power
                                          Comment
                                          • stemellor
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 03-22-13
                                            • 631

                                            #406
                                            21 September

                                            Sweden Allsvenskan: Kalmar vs Gefle
                                            Draw @ 3.4 on Bet365. 0.3 units risk

                                            Spain Primera: Almeria vs Levante
                                            Levante +0.5 @ 2.08 on 188Bet. 0.5 units risk
                                            Comment
                                            • stemellor
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 03-22-13
                                              • 631

                                              #407
                                              22 September

                                              Japan J-League: Cerezo Osaka vs Kashiwa Reysol
                                              Cerezo Osaka DNB @ 1.5 on William Hill. 2 unit risk

                                              Kashiwa played mid-week in the ACL and will play again on Wednesday against Guangzhou Evergrande in the same competition. Kashiwa have very little to play for in J League now and will surely concentrate all their efforts on the ACL. Influential playmaker Leandro Domingues will surely not be risked because of a hip problem with Wednesday in mind.

                                              Cerezo can push on towards third in the league and ACL qualification next year with 3 points tomorrow. Cerezo have an excellent defence, it's just goals that they are struggling for a bit at the moment, but I reckon this is a perfect opportunity for them to win against an opposition that may not be fully focused.

                                              I've taken the DNB option just as cover as Cerezo have drawn their last 4 J League games, although 3 of these have been away from home.
                                              Comment
                                              • stemellor
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 03-22-13
                                                • 631

                                                #408
                                                A quick summary over the last couple of weeks:

                                                Originally posted by stemellor
                                                Parlay:
                                                Kaizer Chiefs ML (South Africa PL) & NOB ML (Argentina Inicial)
                                                2.5 units @ 2.94 on Betsson (better odds available here, but they changed from 3.23 just as I was submitting)

                                                Bayern Munich to win to nil
                                                1 unit @ 2.15 on Ladbrokes
                                                Both losses

                                                Originally posted by stemellor
                                                Brazil Serie B:

                                                Sport vs Figueirense. New manager for Sport, who is training the team with an emphasis on defence. Sport shouldn't have problems going forwards with Marcos Aurelio in the team. As long as they can concentrate at the back I think they should win this.

                                                1 unit on Sport ML @ 1.8 on Sportingbet
                                                Win
                                                Originally posted by stemellor
                                                Quick parlay for tonight:

                                                Slovan Bratislava ML, Chelsea ML, Barca ML & Orlando Pirates ML

                                                1 unit @ 2.36 on Paddy Power
                                                Loss
                                                Originally posted by stemellor
                                                Sweden Allsvenskan: Kalmar vs Gefle
                                                Draw @ 3.4 on Bet365. 0.3 units risk

                                                Spain Primera: Almeria vs Levante
                                                Levante +0.5 @ 2.08 on 188Bet. 0.5 units risk
                                                Both wins
                                                Originally posted by stemellor
                                                Japan J-League: Cerezo Osaka vs Kashiwa Reysol
                                                Cerezo Osaka DNB @ 1.5 on William Hill. 2 unit risk

                                                Kashiwa played mid-week in the ACL and will play again on Wednesday against Guangzhou Evergrande in the same competition. Kashiwa have very little to play for in J League now and will surely concentrate all their efforts on the ACL. Influential playmaker Leandro Domingues will surely not be risked because of a hip problem with Wednesday in mind.

                                                Cerezo can push on towards third in the league and ACL qualification next year with 3 points tomorrow. Cerezo have an excellent defence, it's just goals that they are struggling for a bit at the moment, but I reckon this is a perfect opportunity for them to win against an opposition that may not be fully focused.

                                                I've taken the DNB option just as cover as Cerezo have drawn their last 4 J League games, although 3 of these have been away from home.
                                                Push

                                                Overall summary: 78.5-87-9.5. +6.3 units
                                                Comment
                                                • stemellor
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 03-22-13
                                                  • 631

                                                  #409
                                                  26 September

                                                  Serie A: Inter vs Fiorentina

                                                  Over 2.5 goals @ 1.85 on Ladbrokes. 1 unit risk
                                                  Comment
                                                  • stemellor
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 03-22-13
                                                    • 631

                                                    #410
                                                    29 September

                                                    Parlay:
                                                    Boca Juniors ML & Stoke vs Norwich U2.5

                                                    ​1 unit @ 2.82 on 188Bet
                                                    Comment
                                                    • stemellor
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 03-22-13
                                                      • 631

                                                      #411
                                                      4 October

                                                      Argentina Primera Division: Argentinos Juniors vs Belgrano
                                                      Argentinos Juniors DNB @1.91 on 188Bet. 1 unit risk
                                                      Comment
                                                      • stemellor
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 03-22-13
                                                        • 631

                                                        #412
                                                        13 October

                                                        Argentina Primera Division: Velez vs Olimpo
                                                        Velez -0.75 @ 1.84 on 188Bet

                                                        Odds look generous here as Olimpo have been poor away from home this season and H2H at Velez have seen 6 wins out of 7 for Velez. Dominguez is out suspended, but apart from that Velez have a full squad.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • stemellor
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 03-22-13
                                                          • 631

                                                          #413
                                                          Overall summary: 80.5-89-9.5. +7 units

                                                          Hi all, I'm back after a long break. I have a couple of plays for today.

                                                          EPL: Crystal Palace vs Liverpool
                                                          I think Liverpool will win this one, but the odds on them doing so look too short for me. Sturridge should return tonight, but it's not clear if he's 100% match fit and the nerves are bound to set in here for Liverpool with City winning. Tony Pulis won't allow his side to just be beaten tonight and Selhurst Park can be a tough place to go to. Just Dikgachoi as a question mark for Palace, although he has been important in their recent good form.
                                                          I have Liverpool with a c.45% chance of winning and I think they will sneak a nervy 1 goal victory.

                                                          Taking Crystal Palace +1.5 AH @ 2.02 on Marathonbet, 1 unit risk

                                                          Sweden Allsvenskan: Falkenbergs vs Gefle
                                                          Falkenbergs don't really look like a top tier team and have a very small squad.
                                                          Falkenbergs Injuries are Zlatan Krizanovic (cruciate ligament), Matteo Blomqvist-Zampi (cruciate ligament), Godsway Donyoh (knee) and only have 1 recognised striker.
                                                          Gefle have no injuries and suspensions and play with a full squad.
                                                          Neither side are in good form, but I have Gefle with a c.45% chance of winning which make the odds appealing here.

                                                          Taking Gefle with the DNB insurance at @ 2.10 on Marathonbet, 1 unit risk
                                                          Comment
                                                          • stemellor
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 03-22-13
                                                            • 631

                                                            #414
                                                            Not quite how I saw the Liverpool game playing out, but a win and a push today.

                                                            Japan J-League: Kashima Antlers vs Nagoya Grampas

                                                            Antlers are fighting to go to the top of the J League and have a full squad to chose from where as Grampas are losing players every week. 10 players are listed as doubtful or unavailable for tomorrow's game:

                                                            Doubtful: Ryunosuke Noda(left knee), Yusuke Muta(left foot), Reo Mochizuki (hip), Joshua Kennedy(left thigh), Kensuke Nagai, Shun Obu
                                                            Injured/unavailable:Ryota Tanabe(right knee), Yuto Mori(right knee), Tomoya Koyamatsu(left knee), Ryosuke Tone(lumbar vertebra)

                                                            i think Antlers can win comfortably here.
                                                            Taking Antlers -1 AH @ 2.20 on Marathonbet, 1 unit risk

                                                            Japan J-League 2: Shonan Bellmare vs Tochigi

                                                            Shonan have won all 10 J2 league games this year. Tochigi have a good away record, but I think Shonan are a class above anyone they have played so far.

                                                            Taken Shonan -1 AH @ 1.90 on 188Bet, risking to win 1 unit
                                                            Comment
                                                            • stemellor
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 03-22-13
                                                              • 631

                                                              #415
                                                              Originally posted by stemellor
                                                              Not quite how I saw the Liverpool game playing out, but a win and a push today.

                                                              Japan J-League: Kashima Antlers vs Nagoya Grampas

                                                              Antlers are fighting to go to the top of the J League and have a full squad to chose from where as Grampas are losing players every week. 10 players are listed as doubtful or unavailable for tomorrow's game:

                                                              Doubtful: Ryunosuke Noda(left knee), Yusuke Muta(left foot), Reo Mochizuki (hip), Joshua Kennedy(left thigh), Kensuke Nagai, Shun Obu
                                                              Injured/unavailable:Ryota Tanabe(right knee), Yuto Mori(right knee), Tomoya Koyamatsu(left knee), Ryosuke Tone(lumbar vertebra)

                                                              i think Antlers can win comfortably here.
                                                              Taking Antlers -1 AH @ 2.20 on Marathonbet, 1 unit risk

                                                              Japan J-League 2: Shonan Bellmare vs Tochigi

                                                              Shonan have won all 10 J2 league games this year. Tochigi have a good away record, but I think Shonan are a class above anyone they have played so far.

                                                              Taken Shonan -1 AH @ 1.90 on 188Bet, risking to win 1 unit
                                                              All square with the last 4 bets 1 win, 2 pushes and a loss.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • stemellor
                                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                                • 03-22-13
                                                                • 631

                                                                #416
                                                                Swiss Challenge League: Wil 1900 vs Locarno

                                                                This is just based on numbers (form and previous H2H) as I can't find any team info. I have Wil winning by 2 goals at around even odds. The odds have dropped too far on the straight win as I have them at around 65% of winning, but the -1.5 AH is still +ev. Locarno should be fighting to stay in the league, but have been heavily beaten recently away by the 2 teams above them. Unless there are any significant team changes then this has value.

                                                                Taken Wil -1.5 AH @ 2.20 on Marathonbet. 1 unit risk.

                                                                Sweden Allsvenskan: Hacken vs Brommapojkarna
                                                                Team news:
                                                                Hacken

                                                                Suspended: Walid Atta
                                                                Injuries / unavailable: Alexander Jeremejeff (foot)

                                                                Brommapojkarna
                                                                Injuries / unavailable: Andreas Eriksson (cruciate ligament)
                                                                Hacken should be able to win this game comfortably as they should match up well. I have Hacken winning by 2 goals at around even odds.

                                                                Taken Hacken @ 2.19 on 188Bet. 1 unit risk.

                                                                Swiss Super League: Grasshoppers vs St Gallen

                                                                Grasshoppers without captain Salatic suspended and Ben Khalifa injured. St Gallen with a long list of absentees. The motivation and form is all with Grasshoppers as they are still playing to catch Basel for the title. St Gallen are in a safe mid-table position.
                                                                I have Grasshoppers with a c.65% change of winning, so there is a small amount of value in this line.

                                                                Taken Grasshoppers to win @ 1.57 on Coral. Risking 1 unit.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • stemellor
                                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                                  • 03-22-13
                                                                  • 631

                                                                  #417
                                                                  Two wins and a loss from the last 3 games, but Hacken needed a 92nd minute goal to win by 2 clear goals. +0.76 units

                                                                  Overall record 83.5-91-11.5. +7.76 units
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • onemoregoal
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 02-04-13
                                                                    • 8149

                                                                    #418
                                                                    doesnt matter how u win em dude
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • stemellor
                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                      • 03-22-13
                                                                      • 631

                                                                      #419
                                                                      Originally posted by onemoregoal
                                                                      doesnt matter how u win em dude
                                                                      Yeah, nice to be on the right side of injury time goals. I see you've been killing it in your thread since I've been away.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • stemellor
                                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                                        • 03-22-13
                                                                        • 631

                                                                        #420
                                                                        Swiss Challenge League: Lausanne vs Thun
                                                                        Thun ML @ 1.83 on Coral. 1 unit risk

                                                                        Romania Liga 1: Pandurii vs Viitorul Constanta
                                                                        Viitorul Constanta +0.5 AH @ 1.93 on Pinny. 1 unit risk

                                                                        Sweden Allsvenskan: Orebro vs Falkenberg
                                                                        Orebro ML @ 1.70 on Marathonbet. 1 unit risk.
                                                                        Comment
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