It's tough to make that call over a week, just the stuff I'm posting has so much variance.
Even though I don't always subscribe to, or view the markets as efficient anytime the majority of lines move our way, it seems like it should be considered a good thing.
But you are getting at an important part of this results analysis and I really dropped some hints you might have picked up on, or it's true what they say that you are just one creative mutherfukker in your own right.
I mentioned expecting a performance against the close, hoping the closer stabilizes, even threw out the term consolidation with no explanation on what I meant.
And in weeks past, we've been talking about the charts, when they go the same, converge, diverge. I think, efficient or not, I would always rather be beating the close over time and losing money, than the other way around. But we're analyzing all this, in real time, showing not only that there's plenty of money to be made when struggling against the closer but that the whole host of relationships have variance.
That's one place I'm heading here, I think I mentioned one Fund having gone through the "cycle." We need the world to fall that way, a real time example, and then hopefully I will have written enough in previous posts and be able to do something similar to predicting the UPSET Basket slide, with highlighted charts.
I may cut off the first parts of those running average charts so we can zoom in, getting more detail.
It's fun too, I don't think it's too dry if you're following along.
I don't claim to know it all, that said some things I keep saying are best taught by example. It's a long term project here.
In the end, though, after all the variance, more often than not, if you beat the closer handily across the board in a given week, you're going to make money that week, or at least get even. Not always though, obviously.
But when it comes to implications for further weeks, I suppose it's about making sense of that noise.
Excited about the haymaker Fund, and the implications a reversal will have for revealing even more. Watching these market "functions" play out, even if my spread and Total plays are struggling, is still a good watch.
It seemed like I was beating the closer this week pretty good in a few places and I get this feeling there's going to be a unit pop somewhere along the way. Things just feel due.
This post kind of got long...lol. I suppose no matter what gets laid down, we have to always remember that we are dealing in probabilities, even if some (like some chart technicals) seem like pretty high probability. For those, it's like we're trading a high probability conclusion only to have uncertainty stick it's nose back in place.
For example, yeah, I can tell you the moving averages crossing means we have some legs left in the direction we're headed, with pretty darn good certainty too (it's the nature of the stat), but that's all that will tell you, unfortunately. Or is it? Maybe we should consider the distance those lines apart, and how the trend in relation.
A sort of, MACD, or moving average convergence divergence metric. More than just whether they cross or not. But even so, with the charts in rotation order and so many games going off at once, is it useful? There's a long and short term to consider.
Even though I don't always subscribe to, or view the markets as efficient anytime the majority of lines move our way, it seems like it should be considered a good thing.
But you are getting at an important part of this results analysis and I really dropped some hints you might have picked up on, or it's true what they say that you are just one creative mutherfukker in your own right.
I mentioned expecting a performance against the close, hoping the closer stabilizes, even threw out the term consolidation with no explanation on what I meant.
And in weeks past, we've been talking about the charts, when they go the same, converge, diverge. I think, efficient or not, I would always rather be beating the close over time and losing money, than the other way around. But we're analyzing all this, in real time, showing not only that there's plenty of money to be made when struggling against the closer but that the whole host of relationships have variance.
That's one place I'm heading here, I think I mentioned one Fund having gone through the "cycle." We need the world to fall that way, a real time example, and then hopefully I will have written enough in previous posts and be able to do something similar to predicting the UPSET Basket slide, with highlighted charts.
I may cut off the first parts of those running average charts so we can zoom in, getting more detail.
It's fun too, I don't think it's too dry if you're following along.
I don't claim to know it all, that said some things I keep saying are best taught by example. It's a long term project here.
In the end, though, after all the variance, more often than not, if you beat the closer handily across the board in a given week, you're going to make money that week, or at least get even. Not always though, obviously.
But when it comes to implications for further weeks, I suppose it's about making sense of that noise.
Excited about the haymaker Fund, and the implications a reversal will have for revealing even more. Watching these market "functions" play out, even if my spread and Total plays are struggling, is still a good watch.
It seemed like I was beating the closer this week pretty good in a few places and I get this feeling there's going to be a unit pop somewhere along the way. Things just feel due.
This post kind of got long...lol. I suppose no matter what gets laid down, we have to always remember that we are dealing in probabilities, even if some (like some chart technicals) seem like pretty high probability. For those, it's like we're trading a high probability conclusion only to have uncertainty stick it's nose back in place.
For example, yeah, I can tell you the moving averages crossing means we have some legs left in the direction we're headed, with pretty darn good certainty too (it's the nature of the stat), but that's all that will tell you, unfortunately. Or is it? Maybe we should consider the distance those lines apart, and how the trend in relation.
A sort of, MACD, or moving average convergence divergence metric. More than just whether they cross or not. But even so, with the charts in rotation order and so many games going off at once, is it useful? There's a long and short term to consider.
