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lost in the interesting exchange below is the salient fact about what the girl ordered......
burrito bowl chowin' fat girls gotta eat, stoopin' to the level of blowin' guys for a meal..... sad......
I need to go through my old email and find the one from a babe who happened to copy me on a joke she rec'd from her dad and had sent out to her entire mailing list. We started talkin' raunchy on it, and she didn't realize she was sending our sex chat to her whole f'n mailing list, including her dad and brothers.... who both responded with some funny shit.... like "not sure why your sending me this, sis"......Comment -
hot pockets, of course, no wonder i'm not getting laidComment -
for dessert, serve her up an ALABAMA HOT POCKET......Comment -
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was thinking, wow what a beautiful bond between man and animal. then i erupted in laughterComment -
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I'm putting this here because I started that open parlay Monday. It was supposed to be a 4 pick but actually had 4 open spots...lol.
So the second play in the 5 pick open parlay is Jordan Spieth -155 OVER Justin Thomas for Round 2...
I promise no Fuk Spieth rants regardless of the outcome. Also, I think it's best in these open parlays to make ones only involving golf, and not mixing golf matchups with other sports. That said, I just bough this...To Win Short Description Open Football - 151 Clemson/Alabama over 51 -110 for Game
Golf - 7223 J. Spieth -155 for Game
That's an open 4 pick aimed at just golf. I also have the individual -1/2 over Thomas.To Win Short Description Open Football - 151 Clemson/Alabama over 51 -110 for Game
Golf - 7223 J. Spieth -155 for GameOpen Golf - 7223 J. Spieth -155 for Game Golf - 7223 J. Spieth -½ -125 for Game
Spieth has fuked me in the second round many times, he owes me one.
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I actually got a shitty number on Spieth for no good cause. I had it last night at -140, but not in that trading account.
Just plain mistake as they had it at -140 as well. I didn't create a moneyline yet (not enough data) to compare to the market, but other market metrics said to buy it. I guess I beat the closer...lol/
Spieth out early with a 1 stroke lead.
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nice bodComment -
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pass the mic to flow
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easy seattle pound playComment -
Easy Seattle pound play, eh? Let's talk it out from my perspective and see where we end up. I hope this doesn't end up too long and I hope I don't write a long post, think it's too much info, and then just delete it without submitting...lol...I've done that before.
Anyway, you remember the performance from last week and Clemson was an obvious settlement, but now we're back to NFL; on a more micro level. All four favorites mean something could be coming; could be.
The numbers are like this...
Sharp forecast has Atlanta winning 31-21. For some insight...the defenses are about the same but Atlanta just plain scores more and it shows in many metrics. This 10 point margin triggers a bet on Atlanta to -5.5. At 6 points, there is no longer a bet triggered. The line moving to -6.5 is suspect here, until we see the next forecast. The forecast has 52 points, in line with the market.
The stacking forecast shows Atlanta winning 31-16. With this margin of victory, we capture more numbers and that line can go much, much higher. This forecast was correct against the moneyline and spread on all four games last week. The TOTAL is closer to the opener and as it gets OVER 51 and we see 51.5, it could indicate an UNDER bet.
The non-predictive public gauge has Atlanta winning in a closer game 28-21.
I see a whole lot of Atlanta to win, that’s for sure. As far as the TOTAL is concerned, I can see pressure on the OVER from a few different groups and I have the line opening at 49.5. I think the books were expecting OVER money and encouraged it all the while sideling some of the sharper groups.
This public OVER pressure is a bit high in certain ways, but it enters a range of too high, easily taking some UNDER money after 51.5, even though it has gone as high as 52.5. This is what it looks in the market place as well. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it drop to 51 in the sharper houses.
By all rights, this game should be the OVER. That OVER pressure is there for a reason and sidelining some groups while directing others towards the UNDER surely implies the OVER could come. I don’t like the line opener or its movement, and will have to pass as far as posting it here, unless it hits goes below 51 before game time. It just carries unnecessary risk, in addition to being the first game of the weekend, but at 51 or 50.5, one has to think the OVER is the shot, at least trading wise.
As the first game, it can be difficult to assess the flow of money. Like I said before, the sharper forecast and its moneyline prediction can be a huge gauge for the playoffs. Last week there were three ties predicted with the sharper forecast, while they may indicate generous underdog odds against the moneyline, it doesn’t outright predict a winner.
I think the spread at -6.5 has moved too far to get involved with the forecasts and an Atlanta win without covering either the early -3.5 or even this late -6.5 is a decent settlement. In fact, that swelled stacking forecast’s margin of victory of 15 points, capturing the numbers 11, 13, and 14 that aren’t in the sharper forecast, may be showing in the market place.
That type of swelling, taking a line even a half point too far, tends to spell doom for the public and those buyers. Atlanta even looks like a bargain at -6.5, being a tick below 7.
I can’t get Atlanta in these conditions. Does that mean we pick up Seattle? Not necessarily, but if you do, make it at +6.5, you made need that space.
I wouldn’t take the UNDER in these conditions either. Seattle playing it close in low scoring game seems too obvious, not economic decision making analysis.
So in the trading account, and for the sake of trying to bet through all the playoff games in this thread, and because it seems like the best settlement, I will take Seattle Seahawks +6.5 (-104) over Atlanta Falcons.
This is tricky here, as we are both trying to outsmart the marketplace and the books.
Also recognize that while this is bold, the flow of money this weekend begins with this game, and I’ve written countless times how that carries extra risk. Bet wisely and manage that money properly. When I say I can’t take Atlanta here, it may be the very result the market wants; sneaking it in while some of us pass.
I would seek OVER if it can hit 51. I may get creative here with on OVER 50.5 and pay the price for an OPEN parlay.
One final thing, if Seattle jumps out ahead early, I will be hitting the Atlanta moneyline live. It’s not what they bring; it’s how they bring it.
Good Luck.
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Here are some plays...
Short Description Football - 301 Seattle Seahawks +6½ -104 for Game Football - 301 Seattle Seahawks +6½ -109 for Game
Football - 301 Seattle Seahawks/Atlanta Falcons over 50½ -134 buying 1 for GameShort Description Golf Futures - 2017 Golf Events - PGA - Sony Open in Hawaii - Odds to win the Sony Open In Hawaii 2017 - Spieth, Jordan +550 Golf Futures - 2017 Golf Events - PGA - Sony Open in Hawaii - Odds to win the Sony Open In Hawaii 2017 - Field (any other player) +450 - Game Total: Over 50.5 -112.121 - Sat Jan 14 2017 16:28EST: SEA Seahawks @ ATL Falcons
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Tried to get +7.5 (-127) early but it's a no go.
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I nibbled at Atlanta -158 live, I'm not sure it will get to plus odds but Seattle up 14-0 wouldn't surprise me.
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Not sure any better numbers are going to come up for us...
Short Description Golf Futures - 2017 Golf Events - PGA - Sony Open in Hawaii - Odds to win the Sony Open In Hawaii 2017 - Spieth, Jordan +550 Golf Futures - 2017 Golf Events - PGA - Sony Open in Hawaii - Odds to win the Sony Open In Hawaii 2017 - Field (any other player) +450 - Game Total: Over 50.5 -112.121 - Sat Jan 14 2017 16:28EST: SEA Seahawks @ ATL Falcons - Money Line: ATL Falcons -157.576 - Sat Jan 14 2017 16:28EST: SEA Seahawks @ ATL Falcons 
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For the next game the sharper forecast has New England winning 28-7. It’s clear and notable that New England has a very good defense. This triggers a New England play up to -13.5. The line has not been in reach as it opened near at -16. This line also triggers an UNDER bet down to 41 points.
The stacking forecast shows New England winning, with a score of 31-10. That’s basically the same 21 point margin and the same UNDER prediction as the sharper forecast. This stacking forecast has been successful on the spread and moneyline so far in the playoffs.
The public gauge has a close game with New England winning 23-10.
We see the line move away from the forecasts for obvious reasons. While there was some buying of the favorite, in line with the forecasts and we’ve seen some -16.5 trades hit, we’re looking at an abnormally large spread and underdog moneyline. We have a NFL playoff team at better than +800. And just taking the +16 has been a market reaction; being a little bit more in line with the public gauge.
The TOTAL opened at 45 and has moved downward, towards the sharper forecasts. The sharper forecast results have been 0-3 thus far against TOTALS, were sidelined the last two games and this game in New England represents an UNDER play.
Some metrics on whether this TOTAL play will go OVER or UNDER are split. Therefore I am passing on the taking the UNDER. I don’t like all this agreement with the forecasts.
I can’t fault an NFL bettor for taking the better than 8-1 on the moneyline, after all it is an NFL playoff game. In this game in particular, unnamed metrics indicate an underdog as well as an upset.
In fact, for the trading account, that's exactly what I did. I have picked up Houston Texans +16 and +935 over New England Patriots.
Good Luck.
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The line moved so I struck again...lol...
Short Description Football - 303 Houston Texans +935 for Game Football - 303 Houston Texans +16 -105 for Game Football - 303 Houston Texans +17 -110 for Game Football - 303 Houston Texans +1020 for Game 
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If that TOTAL drops a bit early, I would consider it live for the OVER.
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Missed it at 41.5 but was able to get in at OVER 43.5...
Short Description Golf Futures - 2017 Golf Events - PGA - Sony Open in Hawaii - Odds to win the Sony Open In Hawaii 2017 - Spieth, Jordan +550 Golf Futures - 2017 Golf Events - PGA - Sony Open in Hawaii - Odds to win the Sony Open In Hawaii 2017 - Field (any other player) +450 - Game Total: Over 43.5 -127.273 - Sat Jan 14 2017 20:06EST: HOU Texans @ NE Patriots 
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I added +21.5...
One of those efforts to thicken my position...Short Description Golf Futures - 2017 Golf Events - PGA - Sony Open in Hawaii - Odds to win the Sony Open In Hawaii 2017 - Spieth, Jordan +550 Golf Futures - 2017 Golf Events - PGA - Sony Open in Hawaii - Odds to win the Sony Open In Hawaii 2017 - Field (any other player) +450 - Game Total: Over 43.5 -127.273 - Sat Jan 14 2017 20:06EST: HOU Texans @ NE Patriots - Point Spread: HOU Texans +21.5 -122.222 - Sat Jan 14 2017 20:06EST: HOU Texans @ NE Patriots
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One more time at these levels, +18.5...
Short Description Golf Futures - 2017 Golf Events - PGA - Sony Open in Hawaii - Odds to win the Sony Open In Hawaii 2017 - Spieth, Jordan +550 Golf Futures - 2017 Golf Events - PGA - Sony Open in Hawaii - Odds to win the Sony Open In Hawaii 2017 - Field (any other player) +450 - Game Total: Over 43.5 -127.273 - Sat Jan 14 2017 20:06EST: HOU Texans @ NE Patriots - Point Spread: HOU Texans +21.5 -122.222 - Sat Jan 14 2017 20:06EST: HOU Texans @ NE Patriots - Point Spread: HOU Texans +18.5 -117.172 - Sat Jan 14 2017 20:06EST: HOU Texans @ NE Patriots 
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I want to bang them all.
All of them.Comment -
I've been buying up Houston DDD. And now it's a game!
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