The Seer's 2012 NCAAF & NFL thread
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The SeerSBR Posting Legend
- 10-29-07
- 10641
#3466Comment -
tblues2005SBR Hall of Famer
- 07-30-06
- 9235
#3467Thanks the Seer for giving us a preview.Comment -
coitus_maximusSBR Wise Guy
- 01-05-12
- 870
#3469As long as the number is under 10. I see a 10pt win.Comment -
Joe SharpSBR MVP
- 06-01-09
- 3011
#3470Roll TideComment -
The SeerSBR Posting Legend
- 10-29-07
- 10641
#3471from my post on Dec 3rd:
Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.
A few comments on this game:
Much has been talked about with the ND front 7 on D vs Bama's O line. I feel there are battle that need to be talked about and they favor Bama. Bama's defensive front 7 is better than ND's offensive line especially in the redzone. Bama has the number 1 red zone scoring defense in the country. ND's redzone offense is 119th & they get TDs only 46% of the time. The other area I expect Bama to take advantage of is ND's secondary. It's the weak link in the secondary and AJ McCarron is number 1 in the country in passing efficiency, completing 67% of his passes at 9.3 yds per attempt (not completion) 26 TDs & only 3 INTs. There are other reasons such as ND committing more penalties & Bama's ability to make defensive adjustments. Mobile QBs are not that big of a deal vs Bama. As we've seen Manziel is a once in a generation player but Bama made adjustments against him. In the Texas A&M game, after the first quarter, Manziel led his team to only 1 TD & 1 fg. Gholston is no Manziel. I think he has more of a chance of turnovers than touchdowns. The 2 previous championship double digit underdogs have won outright but the spread has never matter in the BCS title game. Either the favorite has covered the number easily or the dog has won outright. If you like ND you could take the ML but right now after being bet down the value is actually better to take Bama on the ML. The one thing that keeps me from dropping 5 units on this game is the motivation factor. It will seemingly have to favor ND here & we've seen how important that is in these bowls. It's tough to quantify. Louisville was a good team but they played well over their heads vs Florida. Spare me the Lou is great comments, they got blown out by Syracuse & beaten by UCONN. LSU who is used to going to BCS games was much less motivated than Clemson & also loses due to bone head game management by Les MIles when it was obvious they had much better talent. If those were playoff games then we see different results. Saban is the best at keeping his team focused but these are still 18-22 year old kids and they are predictable at times and unpredictable at times. Bama stayed at a hotel on South Beach where it was a big party atmosphere Saturday night. ND stayed 12 miles away. Alabama fans feel entitled & ND fans are happy to be there. There's a reason teams haven't repeated but I just can't make a case for ND scoring much into double digits while I'm sure Bama gets there minimum 24 -27 points. No play for me on the total as these games often turn into blowouts. I've won a bunch in these bowls & 3 units won't hurt so I'm letting it roll on the Tide (no pun intended). GL I'm off to a party.Comment -
No coincidencesSBR Aristocracy
- 01-18-10
- 76300
#3472Good luck tonight Seer.
Nice season pal.Comment -
mudman890SBR Rookie
- 10-21-12
- 7
#3473What does everyone think about the Irish over 6.5 points in the second half. U gotta think they will score at least 1 td. It's -150 but I think it's good valueComment -
matt711SBR MVP
- 07-09-12
- 2283
#3474from my post on Dec 3rd:
Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.
A few comments on this game:
Much has been talked about with the ND front 7 on D vs Bama's O line. I feel there are battle that need to be talked about and they favor Bama. Bama's defensive front 7 is better than ND's offensive line especially in the redzone. Bama has the number 1 red zone scoring defense in the country. ND's redzone offense is 119th & they get TDs only 46% of the time. The other area I expect Bama to take advantage of is ND's secondary. It's the weak link in the secondary and AJ McCarron is number 1 in the country in passing efficiency, completing 67% of his passes at 9.3 yds per attempt (not completion) 26 TDs & only 3 INTs. There are other reasons such as ND committing more penalties & Bama's ability to make defensive adjustments. Mobile QBs are not that big of a deal vs Bama. As we've seen Manziel is a once in a generation player but Bama made adjustments against him. In the Texas A&M game, after the first quarter, Manziel led his team to only 1 TD & 1 fg. Gholston is no Manziel. I think he has more of a chance of turnovers than touchdowns. The 2 previous championship double digit underdogs have won outright but the spread has never matter in the BCS title game. Either the favorite has covered the number easily or the dog has won outright. If you like ND you could take the ML but right now after being bet down the value is actually better to take Bama on the ML. The one thing that keeps me from dropping 5 units on this game is the motivation factor. It will seemingly have to favor ND here & we've seen how important that is in these bowls. It's tough to quantify. Louisville was a good team but they played well over their heads vs Florida. Spare me the Lou is great comments, they got blown out by Syracuse & beaten by UCONN. LSU who is used to going to BCS games was much less motivated than Clemson & also loses due to bone head game management by Les MIles when it was obvious they had much better talent. If those were playoff games then we see different results. Saban is the best at keeping his team focused but these are still 18-22 year old kids and they are predictable at times and unpredictable at times. Bama stayed at a hotel on South Beach where it was a big party atmosphere Saturday night. ND stayed 12 miles away. Alabama fans feel entitled & ND fans are happy to be there. There's a reason teams haven't repeated but I just can't make a case for ND scoring much into double digits while I'm sure Bama gets there minimum 24 -27 points. No play for me on the total as these games often turn into blowouts. I've won a bunch in these bowls & 3 units won't hurt so I'm letting it roll on the Tide (no pun intended). GL I'm off to a party.Comment -
matt711SBR MVP
- 07-09-12
- 2283
#3475Too bad i was stupid and took ND...BOL in the playoffsComment -
moodyt2SBR Sharp
- 11-04-09
- 448
#3476Seer who is the best college football team in the country?Comment -
tblues2005SBR Hall of Famer
- 07-30-06
- 9235
#3477A very good year the seer. Your not going to see our troll say that too!!Comment -
briedwardSBR Wise Guy
- 03-24-12
- 982
#3479Seer - who do you like for Seahawks/Falcons? Prior to the Clemons injury, I really liked the Seahawks to win the NFC. Now I'm not as confident.Comment -
Joe SharpSBR MVP
- 06-01-09
- 3011
#3480Seer, Congratulations on a great College season and thank you, for taking the time to post and share!! Good luck, through the NFL playoffs!!
Comment -
The SeerSBR Posting Legend
- 10-29-07
- 10641
#3481thanks man
thanks
thanks chiefComment -
daimoshokageSBR Hall of Famer
- 02-07-11
- 8935
#3482Keep throwing the darts seer..Comment -
The SeerSBR Posting Legend
- 10-29-07
- 10641
#3483
Seattle +3 -120 1 unitComment -
DirtyBird1500SBR Wise Guy
- 11-17-11
- 723
#3485I added Seattle myself. Clemons was better vs the run but Irvin should do as well in passing situations. This looks to be a real close game but I think the match up favors the Seahawks & they should win it outright but I'm taking the fg cushion. I think Atl is the worst one seed I've seen in a while but they've burned me a few times this year in situations I didn't expect them to cover so I'm just laying 1 unit.
Seattle +3 -120 1 unit
I have to believe my Falcons are going to get over the hump this year and win at least this one. Should be a great game though.
GLComment -
tblues2005SBR Hall of Famer
- 07-30-06
- 9235
#3486This is no shock that he didn't say anything good about how you season ended either did he? The fading from him made him downright broke.Comment -
BuckeyeNickSBR Rookie
- 10-09-12
- 25
#3487anything for today seer?Comment -
BuckeyeNickSBR Rookie
- 10-09-12
- 25
#3488seer, any leans on the g b/s f game?Comment -
The SeerSBR Posting Legend
- 10-29-07
- 10641
#3489a few more tidbits to pass on in the first game today
With Manning at QB, the Broncos are 6-1 ATS & 7-0 SU as a home fave
In Den 11 game win streak, they scored 30 points or more in 9 of those games & 7 were double digit victories
Manning has covered 8 straight vs Balt. He knows this defense well.
pass efficiency- Broncos: 1.42, the Ravens:1.03
sack differential- Broncos: +31, Ravens: -1
turnover margin- Broncos:-1, Ravens: +8
On the total, there may be overreaction to cold weather. since 2005 in games below 32 degrees the over is 67-46. Since the total has dropped in this game to 44 now, the over may be a bit more attractive.
GLComment -
DirtyBird1500SBR Wise Guy
- 11-17-11
- 723
#3491I love the over in DEN/BAL now that it has dropped to 44. Think its a great play.Comment -
The SeerSBR Posting Legend
- 10-29-07
- 10641
#3494late game adding:
SF -3 even 1 unit (Bovada)
lean overComment -
BostongamblerBARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 02-01-08
- 35581
#3495Good luck SeerComment -
BankingwithBASBR Rookie
- 11-12-10
- 13
#3497Why do u "love" Sf tonight? u do realize they are playing Aron Rodgers right?Comment -
briedwardSBR Wise Guy
- 03-24-12
- 982
#3500I got burned on Denver today. Didn't think in a million years Denver defense would implode. Flacco normally does terrible vs Del Rio defenses. Perhaps we will see on the NBC Sports show, 'Turning Point,' how Flacco did things differently to succeed.
Hopefully we get our money back with Seattle.Comment
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