The Seer's 2012 NCAAF & NFL thread

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  • The Seer
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 10-29-07
    • 10641

    #176
    5 pm central game:

    Tennessee -3 -110 5 units

    5 units is my highest rated play

    Last year, the Vol offense had 23 first downs to the Gators 17. Bray still threw for near 300 yards & 3 TDs even after Hunter was injured on the first series. The difference in that game was a few big plays by Rainey and Demps. One was a short pass that Demps took 83 yards for a TD. Since that game UT has added alot of size and speed to the defense and Rainey and Demps are no longer there. I think that is the major difference in this game. The Vols now have the big playmakers and the Florida offense does not. Florida has shown that they are not explosive on offense and have to grind games out. Even though the Gator RB Gillislee will play, he will not be 100% In all my experience in football, there is never a such thing as a "slight" groin injury on a RB or WR or DB for that matter. Florida is going to be forced to make some plays down the field. This Vol defense is more talented than the A&M defense that got 8 sacks in 24 drop backs. Last years Volunteer bend-but-dont-break defense sacked Brantley 3 times. This year they have a much more attcking multiple-3-4 base unit. The Vols LB crew will put a ton of pressure on Driskel & should force him into some mistakes. Again, look for sophomores AJ Johnson and Curt Maggit to have a major impact on this game.
    Flipping the sides, the Gator defense has been highly touted. This same defense only sacked Bray 1 time last year. The Vol offense has allowed 1 sack this year. They only gave up 1 sack to the Gators in the game last year. This is also the same offensive line that only gave up 18 sacks total in 2011 after playing teams including Georgia, Alabama, LSU, & S. Carolina. This was also an offensive line that started 4 as sohomores last year, now they have a senior, 3 juniors, & a soph. I'm not sure where people are thinking that Bray is going to be harassed much by Florida. Bray has also showed alot of maturity this year so far. Instead of primarily forcing the ball deep, he has checked it down when needed. I expect TE Mychal Rivera to get plenty of looks underneath especially early. Florida claims they will play alot of press man which I think could very well burn them. With WRs Hunter and Patterson being 6'3" & 6'4" & running 4.4 & 4.3 (Patterson even runs a 10.3 100 meters), it will be a tall task on any teams dbs with Bray throwing one of the best deep balls in college football. Florida LB Jelani Jenkins out & hey will start a freshman, Antonio Morrison, in his place. This is not a good game for a freshman to be starting but what really hurts that defense is the leadership of Jenkins.

    Much has been made out of who wins the rushing battle will win the game but that is very misleading. Many of those games when say Florida would get up big they would then run the hell out of the football. The Tebow gators relied heavily on the run . Fulmer's teams were predominantly run the ball first teams. That really doesn't apply to this version of UT. The Vols don't need to win the rushing battle, all they really need is effective rushing attempts.

    This is still a young Tennessee team with only 2 regular senior starters so far. The belief there is that they had a real shot last year and the air went out when Hunter went down early. They are a confident bunch that truly believes they can win this game unlike so teams of the past that weren't so much. Florida played a tough road game last week in the Texas heat and got banged up. It's going to be hard for them to turn around and go play in front of a rabid fan base of 100,000 vs a quick strike offense & attacking defense that will be feeding off of crowd. I think this game has blow out potential written all over it. The only chance Florida has is to get some turnovers and slow the game down and I don't think they have the advantage in personel that they used to have to be able to do that. There's too much positive energy going the Vols direction here.

    Good luck.
    Go hard or go home.
    Comment
    • jihadvillager
      SBR MVP
      • 11-25-11
      • 2134

      #177
      Comment
      • SwisherSweet420
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 01-18-10
        • 922

        #178
        good luck im all over Tenn tonight feeling much better your on them as well. Good luck to us both
        sbr
        Comment
        • JJJ
          SBR MVP
          • 05-03-11
          • 2610

          #179
          Get em Seer
          Comment
          • Dank_Fire
            SBR MVP
            • 05-13-09
            • 2269

            #180
            Awesome. I liked Tenn, just got down on em GL Seer
            Comment
            • jihadvillager
              SBR MVP
              • 11-25-11
              • 2134

              #181
              my line just moved to -3.5 -100 tenn. (already locked it when you posted luckily)- damn! wish we got on top of that fumble
              Last edited by jihadvillager; 09-15-12, 05:14 PM.
              Comment
              • The Seer
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 10-29-07
                • 10641

                #182
                need a score here
                Attached Files
                Comment
                • jihadvillager
                  SBR MVP
                  • 11-25-11
                  • 2134

                  #183
                  gonnA be a sweaty one. lets hope our D holds up- bray pulling a cutler throwin the ball to fl- need to clean up
                  Last edited by jihadvillager; 09-15-12, 05:30 PM.
                  Comment
                  • rake922
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 12-23-07
                    • 11692

                    #184
                    Any leans on the miss state game?
                    Comment
                    • The Seer
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 10-29-07
                      • 10641

                      #185
                      Originally posted by rake922
                      Any leans on the miss state game?
                      yes,

                      Troy +15 -110 2 units
                      Bowling Green +3 -110 1 unit
                      Comment
                      • jihadvillager
                        SBR MVP
                        • 11-25-11
                        • 2134

                        #186
                        cmon richardson- thought we were dead on NW. came thru! need your tip to come thru on FL int
                        Last edited by jihadvillager; 09-15-12, 06:10 PM.
                        Comment
                        • Louisvillekid1
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 10-17-07
                          • 52143

                          #187
                          I'm really liking the Idaho/LSU u 52.5, what's your thoughts on this matchup?
                          Comment
                          • jihadvillager
                            SBR MVP
                            • 11-25-11
                            • 2134

                            #188
                            nice tip on fl int! came through!
                            Comment
                            • The Seer
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 10-29-07
                              • 10641

                              #189
                              Originally posted by Louisvillekid1
                              I'm really liking the Idaho/LSU u 52.5, what's your thoughts on this matchup?
                              no opinion on that

                              adding one before kickoff:

                              Stanford +9 1/2 -110 1 unit
                              Comment
                              • The Seer
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 10-29-07
                                • 10641

                                #190
                                more late games:

                                Utah State +14 1/2 -115 1 unit
                                San Jose St -11 -110 1 unit
                                Comment
                                • The Seer
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 10-29-07
                                  • 10641

                                  #191
                                  looks like I'm buried on the Tennessee game

                                  last game tonight:

                                  UCLA -17 -110 2 units
                                  One of the best rushing teams in the country vs one of the worst rush defenses
                                  GL
                                  Comment
                                  • jihadvillager
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 11-25-11
                                    • 2134

                                    #192
                                    Thanks for the plays seer - too many penalties and turnovers for tenn- no more plays tonight?
                                    Comment
                                    • The Seer
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 10-29-07
                                      • 10641

                                      #193
                                      Originally posted by jihadvillager
                                      Thanks for the plays seer - too many penalties and turnovers for tenn- no more plays tonight?
                                      Florida found something last week in the second half and I was totally wrong about them. Only game left is UCLA.
                                      Comment
                                      • jihadvillager
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 11-25-11
                                        • 2134

                                        #194
                                        Thanks seer - past in the past look forward!
                                        Comment
                                        • jihadvillager
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 11-25-11
                                          • 2134

                                          #195
                                          What do you think of texans -1 niners -.5 teaser tomorrow? Seems square but lions secondary banged up and Houston probably should win. Wouldn't bet either of these straight up but wondered on your thoughts. I know you generally prefer teasing dogs from 2-8 instead of faves.- Seahawks +9 Carolina +8.5 is probably a sharper teaser but I feel less confident about that .
                                          Last edited by jihadvillager; 09-15-12, 11:38 PM.
                                          Comment
                                          • The Seer
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 10-29-07
                                            • 10641

                                            #196
                                            Originally posted by jihadvillager
                                            What do you think of texans -1 niners -.5 teaser tomorrow? Seems square but lions secondary banged up and Houston probably should win. Wouldn't bet either of these straight up but wondered on your thoughts. I know you generally prefer teasing dogs from 2-8 instead of faves.- Seahawks +9 Carolina +8.5 is probably a sharper teaser but I feel less confident about that .
                                            I actually like Det and Jax in those games but I haven't exactly set the world on fire this year with these NFL games.
                                            I'm gonna wait a bit before I do any teasers til I get a better hold on these teams and these replacement refs.
                                            Comment
                                            • jihadvillager
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 11-25-11
                                              • 2134

                                              #197
                                              Thanks seer- texans moved off 7 to 6.5 with low juice- smells fishy and divisional game.- jax has some injuries on the front lines I don't know why the spread would move down when everyone's betting on Houston. Going to keep it simple stick with your sharp plays.
                                              Last edited by jihadvillager; 09-16-12, 11:08 AM.
                                              Comment
                                              • The Seer
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 10-29-07
                                                • 10641

                                                #198
                                                Early games:

                                                Indy +3 -110 2 units
                                                NYG -7 -120 2 units
                                                Philly -3 even 2 units
                                                Miami +2 -110 2 units
                                                Jax +7 -115 2 units

                                                leans Arz, Car
                                                Comment
                                                • The Seer
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 10-29-07
                                                  • 10641

                                                  #199
                                                  I was half asleep when I put these in. Normally I would just take Mia on the ML in that situation. I might end up putting a unit on Az and Car.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • jihadvillager
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 11-25-11
                                                    • 2134

                                                    #200
                                                    Followed all as usual but surprised you took nyg instead of tb, your leans are looking good too on azcar but still early
                                                    Comment
                                                    • The Seer
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 10-29-07
                                                      • 10641

                                                      #201
                                                      adding:

                                                      St L +4 -110 2 units
                                                      Comment
                                                      • jihadvillager
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 11-25-11
                                                        • 2134

                                                        #202
                                                        surprised no seahawks play! that game started early!
                                                        Comment
                                                        • The Seer
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 10-29-07
                                                          • 10641

                                                          #203
                                                          Originally posted by jihadvillager
                                                          surprised no seahawks play! that game started early!
                                                          Didn't like 3, maybe 4, will see what happens at the half
                                                          The Cowboys are much better than last year
                                                          adding:

                                                          Pitts -4 -110 1 unit
                                                          Comment
                                                          • jihadvillager
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 11-25-11
                                                            • 2134

                                                            #204
                                                            I cannot believe the giants came back. wow! luckily i bought the hook like you. edit- game not over i just jinxed us.- sigh of relief
                                                            Last edited by jihadvillager; 09-16-12, 03:27 PM.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Lazyboy311
                                                              SBR Sharp
                                                              • 05-04-10
                                                              • 409

                                                              #205
                                                              Originally posted by jihadvillager
                                                              I cannot believe the giants came back. wow! luckily i bought the hook like you. edit- game not over i just jinxed us.- sigh of relief
                                                              Same exact story here...was at the airport and in a rush, almost clicked through on 7 1/2 when I realized it. Had to pay 125 but damn that paid off....except the multiple swings of emotion/heart attack that came with it there at the end lol
                                                              Comment
                                                              • The Seer
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 10-29-07
                                                                • 10641

                                                                #206
                                                                picked up a few units looks like if things hold up

                                                                late game:

                                                                Detroit +7 -110 2 units
                                                                Comment
                                                                • jihadvillager
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 11-25-11
                                                                  • 2134

                                                                  #207
                                                                  Originally posted by The Seer
                                                                  picked up a few units looks like if things hold up

                                                                  late game:

                                                                  Detroit +7 -110 2 units
                                                                  I like the sharp pick, revenge angle & Overreaction to week one, did you know about the injuries to the secondary of Det though? I also have a teaser I did when drunk and need SF -.5 for the last leg.. would you personally hedge Det ML or let it ride?
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • The Seer
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 10-29-07
                                                                    • 10641

                                                                    #208
                                                                    Originally posted by jihadvillager
                                                                    I like the sharp pick, revenge angle & Overreaction to week one, did you know about the injuries to the secondary of Det though? I also have a teaser I did when drunk and need SF -.5 for the last leg.. would you personally hedge Det ML or let it ride?
                                                                    I'm aware. 7 is alot. I'd let it ride though.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • jihadvillager
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 11-25-11
                                                                      • 2134

                                                                      #209
                                                                      much thanks. still gonna take lions +7 and hope for the gap- thanks for the advice!
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • alabasterf
                                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                                        • 09-03-12
                                                                        • 228

                                                                        #210
                                                                        Thanks for the picks this week. Any play for tonight?
                                                                        Comment
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