Lets talk about gambling

[lakerboy]

Okay see we all have our own ways of making bets and how we come to that decision. Some of us just bet for fun and a few bet because they are in this to make money over time. Now im not one to write long stories but i always wanted to talk about gambling on the forum cause that's the one thing that brings us together.


I wanna talk about how we decide to make bets and what are the influencing factors for bets. We all look at lines and analyze games and make our decisions but it seems to me that some of us spend too little or too much time on capping games.

Some things that i have noticed over the years in gambling

1. When the line moves against you it is almost a CERTAIN LOSS.

2. You decide on a certain play but lines change and you think twice and leave it and it ends up being a winner.

3.You decide on a certain play but you say lets wait a bit and think about it. In the meantime you are losing value like no tomorrow and you end up taking it at a lower value and the line moves back the other way . This not only loses but leaves buyout options costly.

4.You go with your "gut" and it doesn't work for 3 days and then you give up that routine and just when you go against your gut or leave it all your gut plays win.

5.You devise a system( math or other)that you have been practicing with( with good results) and when put into use it fails miserably for a few weeks but just when you give up on it, it wins nonstop and when you jump back with it you lose your shirt.

6. You believe in your so called "capping " ability and think you know certain teams inside out and keep betting on them or against them and after you are buried you realize that you cant predict this stuff.

7. You look at an opening line and say" omg red sox are only -125 with lester versus the royals" and bet it for a couple of units. Then when you look later in the day or the next morning the line is -115. The square in you says" lets take more on". You should have known you already lost this bet over time.

8. You wait until the last minute to make a play on the ie (eagles) at +4.5. 2 days ago you could have had +5.5. The eagles are down 21-10 with 2 minutes left and get a td but miss a 2 pt conversion to leave them down 21-16. They get the onside kick and march down the field and run out of time with the ball near the goalline. Of course you lose your bet and cry" game is fixed". NO you fukked up.

9. You think you did well by fading the public and the line has moved in your favor big time. The lakers opened at -12 ( you took mil +12) and as closing time is approaching you are sitting looking pretty as the line is -10.5 with 5 minutes left before the game starts. All of the sudden the line moves to -11 then -11.5 and then -12. You say so what. Then you check the last move and it was -12.5 as the closing line. IF you continue to watch this game and think you win more than 50% of the time you are not versed.

10. You ran out of nine lives. You forgot to fade Brock Landers.

[ApricotSinner32]

I don't think I want to give too much information for free on a public forum. Not because most could implement what I do handicapping games but It would just take too long to explain.

[No coincidences]

What Brock hears when LB is schooling him on the craft:

[No coincidences]

Just take home dogs from +3 to 6 and road dogs from +1 to 2.5 for the rest of your life and be done with it.

Nothing else. Just that.

[rfr3sh]

Rlm is just an indicator not a for sure winner

[boeing power]

good points LB, however people remember their loses much more than the wins

tonight for example most bet LOU tech at +11.5, then the line went to +12.5

but they still covered so you take the win and move on

if they had not covered you would be saying you knew that it was a loser once the line moved against you

[lakerboy]

good points LB, however people remember their loses much more than the wins

tonight for example most bet LOU tech at +11.5, then the line went to +12.5

but they still covered so you take the win and move on

if they had not covered you would be saying you knew that it was a loser once the line moved against you

but that game had some weather issues. same as mlb games. when the weather is involved its never a good idea to have a bet on that game.

[pimike]

but that game had some weather issues. same as mlb games. when the weather is involved its never a good idea to have a bet on that game.

Great points on that write -up. Most people lose cause they force plays for action.

[forloveofthegame]

cant believe i read that whole thing

[Vegas_bond]

IF you continue to watch this game and think you win more than 50% of the time you are not versed.

10. You ran out of nine lives. You forgot to fade Brock Landers.

You forgot to beat the closing line.

[Sunde91]

Beating the closer is the clear most important thing in betting, but it is an obvious myth to say a game is even remotely a certain loser if the line moves against you.

exhibit A:

TCU/Baylor total had 60% on Over, opened 55.5, dropped to 53.5, then dropped 2 more points in the hours before kickoff from 53.5 to close 51.5 (pinnacle). It went over by 42.5 to 46.5 points

You play steam because you have the chance to beat the closer and gain an edge (which is often a small 1-2%), not because of some fairy tale belief that "sharps" with a crystal ball moved it and you will be ensured a win.

And in the end, odds are still theoretical, contrived by oddsmakers to a degree of certainty. Prove that outcomes are the result of a strong/weak line or are the result of variance.

[Cap dat 4ss]

Making +even bets is clearly the most important thing in betting.

[sweethook]

man your right on , and its a lot of action to get in on , the more you get the more you want. no way i was gone move out $ on cfb so early . . but dam sure did i saw +ev and stayed with it ,came back to true odds and got +$ ,, gl

[ballahollic2]

cant believe i read that whole thing

haha i thought the same thing after i read this

[vyomguy]

I trust my model...not any line movements. Each have their own methods.

[Marginalis]

I don't think I want to give too much information for free on a public forum. Not because most could implement what I do handicapping games but It would just take too long to explain.

[vitalyo]

Great post !
When to Bet? It depends on the sport and your handicapping ability , how good you are to predict line movements .Finding value /inaccurate odds early on is the key .

2. You decide on a certain play but lines change and you think twice and leave it and it ends up being a winner.

If you second guess yourself you gonna get lost , so it is important to trust your own judgment . Books can move the line for various reasons and for newbie it can be misleading (closing line) .Books might choose to reduce the odds on Yanks win to discourage more people from betting on them , move the line and so on , balance the money .It's all depends on the game and a sport you chose to bet . So there is no magic formula .

In soccer ,the games i pick i am more then 60% accurate on predicting the line movements.Once i find a value i don't wait for better odds . I try to bet my games at least one day before the kick off and i am not worried betting too far in advance because you can't win them all.
Team news or injuries can happen to ether side so betting early(if i found a value) doesn't bother me . Unless it's a large wager .

GL.

[Streakster777]

If are bets lose we can always say:

We lost the bet, but we were on the right side.

[8ArIvd5]

but that game had some weather issues. same as mlb games. when the weather is involved its never a good idea to have a bet on that game.

like when the wind's blowing to CF at 125490328493284723984mph in wrigley during a sunday day game. those games are very hard to predict a total.

[8ArIvd5]

Okay see we all have our own ways of making bets and how we come to that decision. Some of us just bet for fun and a few bet because they are in this to make money over time. Now im not one to write long stories but i always wanted to talk about gambling on the forum cause that's the one thing that brings us together.


I wanna talk about how we decide to make bets and what are the influencing factors for bets. We all look at lines and analyze games and make our decisions but it seems to me that some of us spend too little or too much time on capping games.

Some things that i have noticed over the years in gambling

1. When the line moves against you it is almost a CERTAIN LOSS. BS

2. You decide on a certain play but lines change and you think twice and leave it and it ends up being a winner. irrelevant to our decision-making process.

3.You decide on a certain play but you say lets wait a bit and think about it. In the meantime you are losing value like no tomorrow and you end up taking it at a lower value and the line moves back the other way . This not only loses but leaves buyout options costly. don't take the line unless it moves in your favor

4.You go with your "gut" and it doesn't work for 3 days and then you give up that routine and just when you go against your gut or leave it all your gut plays win. that sucks.

5.You devise a system( math or other)that you have been practicing with( with good results) and when put into use it fails miserably for a few weeks but just when you give up on it, it wins nonstop and when you jump back with it you lose your shirt. it's called variance.

6. You believe in your so called "capping " ability and think you know certain teams inside out and keep betting on them or against them and after you are buried you realize that you cant predict this stuff. that sucks

7. You look at an opening line and say" omg red sox are only -125 with lester versus the royals" and bet it for a couple of units. Then when you look later in the day or the next morning the line is -115. The square in you says" lets take more on". You should have known you already lost this bet over time. isn't that how billy walters gets the lines he wants?

8. You wait until the last minute to make a play on the ie (eagles) at +4.5. 2 days ago you could have had +5.5. The eagles are down 21-10 with 2 minutes left and get a td but miss a 2 pt conversion to leave them down 21-16. They get the onside kick and march down the field and run out of time with the ball near the goalline. Of course you lose your bet and cry" game is fixed". NO you fukked up. reference to paco?

9. You think you did well by fading the public and the line has moved in your favor big time. The lakers opened at -12 ( you took mil +12) and as closing time is approaching you are sitting looking pretty as the line is -10.5 with 5 minutes left before the game starts. All of the sudden the line moves to -11 then -11.5 and then -12. You say so what. Then you check the last move and it was -12.5 as the closing line. IF you continue to watch this game and think you win more than 50% of the time you are not versed. again, how does this relate to the decision-making process?

10. You ran out of nine lives. You forgot to fade Brock Landers. Brock Landers should not be faded.

What a bunch of rubbish.

[GunShard]

My own important rules for gambling:

#1. Money management is extremely important. Use a money management system and stick with it religiously. Give yourself a limit per week and know when to quit. You should be using 1% of your bankroll for each bet.

#2 Bet because you can win. Never bet for the action or just because it's your favorite team. Be selective. Pick your spots and wait for the right opportunity.

#3. Pay attention to the lines all the way to the end of the week, try to make profit off the line. Always shop for the best line, Always! You should have an account in multiple books.

#4. Know that you are making profits off of other gamblers, you are not making profit off of the casinos and line makers. That's why they adjust the lines accordingly.

#5. Stay emotionless all the time. Bet like a robot. There's no place for emotions in this profession.

#6. Patience & Discipline is the key. Develop these skills.

#7. Know when to fade the public.

#8. I personally would avoid playing pre season, due to imbalanced teams and teams who are just experimenting. The first few weeks of the NFL regular season is a guessing game.

#9. Pay attention to injuries to important players, it can effect the outcome of a game.


Here are rules I took from someone on the internet:

1. Establish a base line for the game to determine value when a line is more or less than your number. You can do this by using power ratings and weekly adjustment charts to update each team's power rating weekly.

2. Situational handicapping- look for things like revenge, maybe a player is shooting his mouth off, key injuries. Note; linemakers are sharp and generally build the line to compensate for the injury, it's when the public overbets the injury to look at playing the otherside.

3.Statistical handicapping- does a team have a top ranked rushing or passing game going against a low ranked defense. Turnovers?

4. Fundemental handicapping- are their any strong trends or coaching advantages. How well do they play on the road? What is their red zone %, are they able to run the clock out with a lead, etc...

[Inkwell77]

My own important rules for gambling:

#1. Money management is extremely important. Use a money management system and stick with it religiously. Give yourself a limit per week and know when to quit. You should be using 1% of your bankroll for each bet.

#2 Bet because you can win. Never bet for the action or just because it's your favorite team. Be selective. Pick your spots and wait for the right opportunity.

#5. Stay emotionless all the time. Bet like a robot. There's no place for emotions in this profession. (PREACH!)

#6. Patience & Discipline is the key. Develop these skills.

#7. Know when to fade the public.

#9. Pay attention to injuries to important players, it can effect the outcome of a game.

Those first 3 are so important! So important.

Only had 3 bets yesterday and one of them was just betting back the other side to get a 4 point middle between two key numbers (6-10, the bet back did not hit).



Here are some rules I like to try to follow:

Never bet on garbage teams

The stats that you get on a sheet in a sportsbook are worthless. Would a sportsbook really provide you with information that would help you win their money?

Never write off a team just because every time you bet that team you lose (unless they are garbage)

Never bet a game you have not researched. The amount of research and the actual information is different for everybody, but try to come up with some sort of profitable model/angle.

The steam is not the be all end all, you don't want to go against steam, but if your info is good: go, steam movements are on the wrong side probably 49% of the time

Fade the heavy public teams when it makes sense. Lakers, Steelers, Cowboys, Yankees, Red Sox, all these type of teams are most likely slightly overvalued

When you have inside info before the books go large (3, 4, 5 units) and hedge back/scalp if you have to (Manning out for week 1, some player is sick, turmoil in the locker room, fan support/energy, stadium issues, etc.)

[t-wizzle]

You forgot to beat the closing line.

About half of his points involved beating the closer.



Good stuff LB. You know your shit. To summarize: beat closing lines and TRUST your system if it has proven to work.

[obamaismyuncle]

My own important rules for gambling:

#1. Money management is extremely important. Use a money management system and stick with it religiously. Give yourself a limit per week and know when to quit. You should be using 1% of your bankroll for each bet.

#2 Bet because you can win. Never bet for the action or just because it's your favorite team. Be selective. Pick your spots and wait for the right opportunity.

#3. Pay attention to the lines all the way to the end of the week, try to make profit off the line. Always shop for the best line, Always! You should have an account in multiple books.

#4. Know that you are making profits off of other gamblers, you are not making profit off of the casinos and line makers. That's why they adjust the lines accordingly.

#5. Stay emotionless all the time. Bet like a robot. There's no place for emotions in this profession.

#6. Patience & Discipline is the key. Develop these skills.

#7. Know when to fade the public.

#8. I personally would avoid playing pre season, due to imbalanced teams and teams who are just experimenting. The first few weeks of the NFL regular season is a guessing game.

#9. Pay attention to injuries to important players, it can effect the outcome of a game.


Here are rules I took from someone on the internet:

1. Establish a base line for the game to determine value when a line is more or less than your number. You can do this by using power ratings and weekly adjustment charts to update each team's power rating weekly.

2. Situational handicapping- look for things like revenge, maybe a player is shooting his mouth off, key injuries. Note; linemakers are sharp and generally build the line to compensate for the injury, it's when the public overbets the injury to look at playing the otherside.

3.Statistical handicapping- does a team have a top ranked rushing or passing game going against a low ranked defense. Turnovers?

4. Fundemental handicapping- are their any strong trends or coaching advantages. How well do they play on the road? What is their red zone %, are they able to run the clock out with a lead, etc...

money management is way over rated. I've cashed out a ton of times and have never used money management ever.

[Sawyer]

money management is way over rated. I've cashed out a ton of times and have never used money management ever.

oh my god..

[Tech N9ne]

Unless your Billy Walters it don't matter what you do you will lose long term.

[obamaismyuncle]

oh my god..

Completely true. I try not to ever chase but as far as 1% of my BR per play, **** that.

[brooks85]

Okay see we all have our own ways of making bets and how we come to that decision. Some of us just bet for fun and a few bet because they are in this to make money over time. Now im not one to write long stories but i always wanted to talk about gambling on the forum cause that's the one thing that brings us together.


I wanna talk about how we decide to make bets and what are the influencing factors for bets. We all look at lines and analyze games and make our decisions but it seems to me that some of us spend too little or too much time on capping games.

Some things that i have noticed over the years in gambling

1. When the line moves against you it is almost a CERTAIN LOSS.

2. You decide on a certain play but lines change and you think twice and leave it and it ends up being a winner.

3.You decide on a certain play but you say lets wait a bit and think about it. In the meantime you are losing value like no tomorrow and you end up taking it at a lower value and the line moves back the other way . This not only loses but leaves buyout options costly.

4.You go with your "gut" and it doesn't work for 3 days and then you give up that routine and just when you go against your gut or leave it all your gut plays win.

5.You devise a system( math or other)that you have been practicing with( with good results) and when put into use it fails miserably for a few weeks but just when you give up on it, it wins nonstop and when you jump back with it you lose your shirt.

6. You believe in your so called "capping " ability and think you know certain teams inside out and keep betting on them or against them and after you are buried you realize that you cant predict this stuff.

7. You look at an opening line and say" omg red sox are only -125 with lester versus the royals" and bet it for a couple of units. Then when you look later in the day or the next morning the line is -115. The square in you says" lets take more on". You should have known you already lost this bet over time.

8. You wait until the last minute to make a play on the ie (eagles) at +4.5. 2 days ago you could have had +5.5. The eagles are down 21-10 with 2 minutes left and get a td but miss a 2 pt conversion to leave them down 21-16. They get the onside kick and march down the field and run out of time with the ball near the goalline. Of course you lose your bet and cry" game is fixed". NO you fukked up.

9. You think you did well by fading the public and the line has moved in your favor big time. The lakers opened at -12 ( you took mil +12) and as closing time is approaching you are sitting looking pretty as the line is -10.5 with 5 minutes left before the game starts. All of the sudden the line moves to -11 then -11.5 and then -12. You say so what. Then you check the last move and it was -12.5 as the closing line. IF you continue to watch this game and think you win more than 50% of the time you are not versed.

10. You ran out of nine lives. You forgot to fade Brock Landers.

Don't forget the number you fall under lakerboy

11. You have no life and you like to play pretend on SBR for the attention.



you didnt answer me yesterday..

I read your reasons for not being a pro, thanks for the entertainment, so what are you reasons for not being in BTP or MLB contest?

[will2survive]

Number 10!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!---The Fademeister is well in place

[CHUBNUT]

The mind plays funny tricks on fragile gamblers.

[paco]

Unless your Billy Walters it don't matter what you do you will lose long term.

Im sure even old Billy had a few losing seasons.

[CHUBNUT]

If your sensible, not impulsive, get the best number at the time and stay away from baseball, your not going to lose much if anything. A little bit of extra hard work puts you over the line.

[affest]

I have no idea about line change. It's too coincidence to call anyways.

[k13]

good points LB, however people remember their loses much more than the wins

tonight for example most bet LOU tech at +11.5, then the line went to +12.5

but they still covered so you take the win and move on

if they had not covered you would be saying you knew that it was a loser once the line moved against you

The original line was +13 if not higher. That was the initial sharp move.

[TomG]

Although there is a degree of truth to some of your points, your post as a whole is a jumbled mix of gambling and psychological fallacies (mostly confirmation bias).

Don't feel bad though. Every gambler feels the same. The goal is not to feel otherwise but to realize the feelings are an illusion.

Now go forth and sin no more.