Are Totals Going To Be Lower In NFL By Moving Kickoffs To 35?

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  • jjgold
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 07-20-05
    • 388179

    #36
    Still rarely going to see long run banks anymore where teams start on the 50 or something like that
    Will take longer to score
    Comment
    • McBa1n
      SBR MVP
      • 01-02-06
      • 2642

      #37
      The ball stays on the 20 if downed and gets spotted at the 40 if kicked out of bounds, like normal.
      I think you'll see around the same returns for scores. An important caveat, if I remember correctly, is that players will have 5 yards to start their run to cover the kick, instead of 15 yards. This is a great equalizer and might actually increase scoring. Not so much that players will return the kicks (although it should be worth the gamble in most situations), but it might create an extra amount of time for the returner to get up the field. Remember, most NFL player's straight line speed can take 20-30 yards to generate, by limiting that time, you create tenths/hundredths of seconds in critical situations on making plays on kicks. How it will play is tough to figure out exactly, but it's quite possible team's starting position averages won't change as much as you'd think, and that's where the real impact on totals will come in - starting field position.
      Comment
      • mrpooh
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 01-12-11
        • 558

        #38
        i would think at first no change, since no on knows
        Comment
        • kingdom
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 07-25-10
          • 10099

          #39
          Originally posted by Mr. Jones
          Will not significantly change things.
          i agree. i was a much better gambler before i started over analyzing everything...
          Comment
          • Skidcom
            SBR MVP
            • 11-17-06
            • 1796

            #40
            It was the first thing I thought
            Comment
            • actionjunkee
              SBR High Roller
              • 11-15-10
              • 124

              #41
              yeah lame. and wayyy more touchbacks right??
              Comment
              • zoso11871
                SBR Sharp
                • 01-04-10
                • 452

                #42
                Yes-I think this will make for slightly lower totals.
                Comment
                • iwantcougars
                  SBR MVP
                  • 09-29-09
                  • 2156

                  #43
                  i think it will maintain in the same range, except for great game management (manning, rodgers and the like), can increase the chance of putting points, but it will make the 1q tota more hard to cap
                  Comment
                  • iwantcougars
                    SBR MVP
                    • 09-29-09
                    • 2156

                    #44
                    after some research yeah it will make some difference, since the touchback will have the ball on the 20 instead of 25 as proposed, kickers will go for touchbacks. Less scoring due there will be less returns and more touchbacks
                    Comment
                    • cloudagh
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 04-08-07
                      • 486

                      #45
                      You have to believe that some people somewhere are going to go huge on this for the first few games.
                      Comment
                      • McBa1n
                        SBR MVP
                        • 01-02-06
                        • 2642

                        #46
                        I want to bring back the point that players will be given 5 yards MAXIMUM to start their runs on kick return coverage, unlike the last 1 billion years of the NFL. This is a big deal. According to Elias information, moving the ball back (in the 5 years prior to rule change and 5 years after rule change) from the 35 to the 30, TDs from kick returns doubled, on average. That alone is 1.x-2.0 points per game. However, with the current changes and things I explained earlier in this thread about player maximum speed, it's likely to be .5-1.x TOPS. I think, it is conceivable, that kick returns for TDs can go in any direction.

                        Touchbacks under the same Elias criteria yielded something like 1 in 6 more touchbacks per kickoff. I think that number will move to 1 in 5 (maybe 2-5% more), with so many 'kick off specialists' but crappy FG kickers ala Cundiff in Baltimore. But you also have to consider, that teams may NOT employ a 3rd kicker on their roster based on this change. Guys like Ryan Longwell will NEVER hit the endzone outdoors - and same with a dickload of kickers. Also, with the change - kickers are more inclined to have less altitude on balls and try to drive their kickoffs 6+ yrds deep in the endzone. This creates HUGE problems for kickers as it's easy to screw up technique trying to kick the ball on a lower trajectory. Also, when a ball is kicked on a more driven than 'hang time' trajectory, it gives the returner upwords of .5 seconds and sometimes more, of making decisions in the open field.

                        I think you have to take into account player's ability for maximum speed in a shorter window. One thing a DICKLOAD of NFL players lack is acceleration to max-speed on kick coverage. Max speed takes quite awhile in most situations on the field. Most players have most of their explosion in small windows, but not in straight line speed.

                        This is getting silly now in breaking it down, but I still think this change might drop the 'norm' 1 point, at best, on totals. You also have to take into account that offenses during the previous 35 to 30 change did not have the same rules to benefit receivers, which made totals increase. The only guys it WILL impact are guys like Brad Smith or Devin Hester or Josh Cribbs (my fav NFL player), only just. Great players still find the end zone. I think it might actually help the BETTER special teamers only just. a hundredth of a second is a long time in the NFL. If you give the best that - they are gone.
                        Comment
                        • Frostware
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 11-20-10
                          • 205

                          #47
                          I would think lower and slower.
                          Comment
                          • Igetp2s
                            SBR MVP
                            • 05-21-07
                            • 1046

                            #48
                            Originally posted by McBa1n
                            I want to bring back the point that players will be given 5 yards MAXIMUM to start their runs on kick return coverage, unlike the last 1 billion years of the NFL. This is a big deal. According to Elias information, moving the ball back (in the 5 years prior to rule change and 5 years after rule change) from the 35 to the 30, TDs from kick returns doubled, on average. That alone is 1.x-2.0 points per game. However, with the current changes and things I explained earlier in this thread about player maximum speed, it's likely to be .5-1.x TOPS. I think, it is conceivable, that kick returns for TDs can go in any direction. Touchbacks under the same Elias criteria yielded something like 1 in 6 more touchbacks per kickoff. I think that number will move to 1 in 5 (maybe 2-5% more), with so many 'kick off specialists' but crappy FG kickers ala Cundiff in Baltimore. But you also have to consider, that teams may NOT employ a 3rd kicker on their roster based on this change. Guys like Ryan Longwell will NEVER hit the endzone outdoors - and same with a dickload of kickers. Also, with the change - kickers are more inclined to have less altitude on balls and try to drive their kickoffs 6+ yrds deep in the endzone. This creates HUGE problems for kickers as it's easy to screw up technique trying to kick the ball on a lower trajectory. Also, when a ball is kicked on a more driven than 'hang time' trajectory, it gives the returner upwords of .5 seconds and sometimes more, of making decisions in the open field. I think you have to take into account player's ability for maximum speed in a shorter window. One thing a DICKLOAD of NFL players lack is acceleration to max-speed on kick coverage. Max speed takes quite awhile in most situations on the field. Most players have most of their explosion in small windows, but not in straight line speed. This is getting silly now in breaking it down, but I still think this change might drop the 'norm' 1 point, at best, on totals. You also have to take into account that offenses during the previous 35 to 30 change did not have the same rules to benefit receivers, which made totals increase. The only guys it WILL impact are guys like Brad Smith or Devin Hester or Josh Cribbs (my fav NFL player), only just. Great players still find the end zone. I think it might actually help the BETTER special teamers only just. a hundredth of a second is a long time in the NFL. If you give the best that - they are gone.
                            What difference does all that make if the kicker can kick the ball out of the end zone? Nobody else on the field matters anymore.
                            Comment
                            • dngf
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 12-25-08
                              • 5926

                              #49
                              I think it will be less than 1/2 point, so probably unnoticeable in totals/
                              Comment
                              • iQon
                                SBR MVP
                                • 04-08-10
                                • 1483

                                #50
                                Why would totals go up because of touchbacks? The average field position from kickoffs were routinely at the 25 yard line, or better every year. Losing 5 yards is huge.

                                Anyway, I think there's potential teams will work on hangtime and kickoffs will resemble punt returns. There could be a lot of fair catches inside the 10 yard line. I don't think linesmakers will be able to adjust from Opening Week, though.
                                Comment
                                • iwantcougars
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 09-29-09
                                  • 2156

                                  #51
                                  Mcba1n interesting stuff. Yeah i think there will be more fair catches inside the 20, which will held the scoring considerably, and there will be fewer returns to the 40-50 yards so scoring will be a little hard for most teams
                                  Comment
                                  • Domestic
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 02-10-09
                                    • 6323

                                    #52
                                    Probably a one point difference or so.
                                    Comment
                                    • BetWeather
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 06-30-10
                                      • 796

                                      #53
                                      it will make a big difference in totals !!!!

                                      A teams chance of scoring when starting from the 40 rather
                                      than the 20 yrd line is 35% to 40% greater !

                                      3 more touch-backs in a game will result in a 4.5 point
                                      drop in total averages.

                                      2 more touch-backs in a game will result in a 3 point
                                      drop in total averages.


                                      Going to be slamming the under the first 2 weeks of the season.
                                      Comment
                                      • mwhelan11
                                        SBR Hustler
                                        • 03-24-11
                                        • 75

                                        #54
                                        yes total lines will be affected but you can find great value because will be off
                                        Comment
                                        • BetWeather
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 06-30-10
                                          • 796

                                          #55
                                          Unfortunately I am a Chiefs fan !!!!

                                          We need the ball on the 40 at least 3 times a game to
                                          have any chance
                                          Comment
                                          • SBRMAN23
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 01-07-11
                                            • 6905

                                            #56
                                            If you think about a lot of players Dnt take back a bunch of tds on kickofff so with more touchbacks more time stays .on the clock instead of some one wasting seconds all the time taking it out and only getting to the 20 anyway
                                            Comment
                                            • SportsBettingPro
                                              SBR Hustler
                                              • 10-07-10
                                              • 60

                                              #57
                                              The difference will be minimal -> maybe 1/2 point on average. You have to keep in mind that if a possession doesn't lead to a score the -5 yards difference (theoretically) results in +5 yards for the other team. So, it only really makes a difference for drives that end right on the boundary between FG and punt and (maybe) TD and FG.

                                              That said, it is highly possible the public will hit this "angle" hard, driving the early totals below fair value, so this might result in off totals none-the-less.
                                              Comment
                                              • AlphaOmega
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 12-31-08
                                                • 1146

                                                #58
                                                Let's get the season going on first then we van argue about this more
                                                Comment
                                                • BetWeather
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 06-30-10
                                                  • 796

                                                  #59
                                                  Originally posted by SportsBettingPro
                                                  The difference will be minimal -> maybe 1/2 point on average. You have to keep in mind that if a possession doesn't lead to a score the -5 yards difference (theoretically) results in +5 yards for the other team. So, it only really makes a difference for drives that end right on the boundary between FG and punt and (maybe) TD and FG.

                                                  That said, it is highly possible the public will hit this "angle" hard, driving the early totals below fair value, so this might result in off totals none-the-less.
                                                  it will make a big difference in totals !!!!

                                                  A teams chance of scoring when starting from the 40 rather
                                                  than the 20 yrd line is 35% to 40% greater !

                                                  3 more touch-backs in a game will result in a 4.5 point
                                                  drop in total averages.

                                                  2 more touch-backs in a game will result in a 3 point
                                                  drop in total averages.


                                                  Going to be slamming the under the first 2 weeks of the season.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • actionjunkee
                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                    • 11-15-10
                                                    • 124

                                                    #60
                                                    yeah it'll make a significant difference i think.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • BetWeather
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 06-30-10
                                                      • 796

                                                      #61
                                                      Going to be slamming the under the first 2 weeks of the season.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • AlphaOmega
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 12-31-08
                                                        • 1146

                                                        #62
                                                        I will see how the line movement is before I make my play. Vegas will always be prepared for situations like this.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • vitalyo
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 12-05-07
                                                          • 1615

                                                          #63
                                                          Originally posted by BetWeather
                                                          Unfortunately I am a Chiefs fan !!!!

                                                          We need the ball on the 40 at least 3 times a game to
                                                          have any chance
                                                          LOL .
                                                          Comment
                                                          • McBa1n
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 01-02-06
                                                            • 2642

                                                            #64
                                                            Originally posted by Igetp2s
                                                            What difference does all that make if the kicker can kick the ball out of the end zone? Nobody else on the field matters anymore.
                                                            This is why I made the point on kickers 'shanking' kicks more often. Imagine swinging a golf club and trying to get that extra distance - it creates a greater chance for a mishit ball. Also, that means the ball will likely not travel as high as kicks previously were, going for the 'out of the endzone' kick, meaning returners will have more time (1/2 a second to a full second) more time in space, coupled with the extra time gained from players coming down the field slightly slower, should the ball not land out of the endzone.

                                                            I agree, most kickers are going to try to boot it out of the endzone - I expect that there will be more touchbacks. But I also expect a lot more ineffective kick offs and potentially more space for a returner (only just).
                                                            Comment
                                                            • LVHerbie
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 09-15-05
                                                              • 6344

                                                              #65
                                                              Obviously it is going to affect scoring but also depends on any adjustments being made to the numbers...
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Onefreedm1nd
                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                • 06-15-10
                                                                • 282

                                                                #66
                                                                I don't see it making that much of a difference but it kills my guy J Cribbs in fantasy
                                                                Comment
                                                                • steve18
                                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                                  • 11-26-09
                                                                  • 662

                                                                  #67
                                                                  Interesting question.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • darren125
                                                                    Restricted User
                                                                    • 01-04-11
                                                                    • 135

                                                                    #68
                                                                    I think changes in the totals would be more reactive.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • BetWeather
                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                      • 06-30-10
                                                                      • 796

                                                                      #69
                                                                      Field position is HUGE.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Wrecktangle
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 03-01-09
                                                                        • 1524

                                                                        #70
                                                                        With the lockout and both sides waiting until the last moment to settle, and then if nobody plays or trains until the first game, it's difficult to say just where totals will go to.

                                                                        National F*cked-up League.
                                                                        Comment
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