Traps for college football this week based on opening lines

**jjgold** · 11-29-10, 10:25 PM

**Brock Landers** · 11-29-10, 10:32 PM

The Illinois game is tough...after minnesota i would have told you they were going to lose outright. After the Northwestern game i don't know how Fresno could stop their running game.

Going to be HIGH Scoring most likely.

Oh and Oklahoma is going to smoke Nebraska

**SCRAGGS** · 11-30-10, 01:17 AM

pavy how has this been going?

**illfuuptn** · 11-30-10, 01:21 AM

Pavy have you been betting the other side of these games or just not betting them? Back in the day I would've thought betting the traps was wayyyyyyyyy -ev and betting the other sides was only slightly -ev but as I've matured as a sports bettor I think there is value and you should be betting against the traps in many instances.

**hhsilver** · 11-30-10, 01:36 AM

i don't understand your logic on many of these. Why do you think S Fla, Mia O, and some others are traps? Did you notice how the line moved by early Monday on those ?

( is your list the teams you would back or fade? )

**proaviator** · 11-30-10, 01:45 AM

So fade your list...

**hoku808pc** · 11-30-10, 02:13 AM

I think he is saying to fade the list... I could be wrong though...

I also would like to know how you came to the conclusion of these games being traps...

Just curious and still learning bro... thanx

**Jonah** · 11-30-10, 03:41 AM

Az line the most suspect

**tony_come** · 11-30-10, 03:49 AM

The meaning of "trap"?

**Nickelicious** · 11-30-10, 04:08 AM

Of the "traps" you mention, I am betting on Miami of Ohio.

**Nickelicious** · 11-30-10, 04:17 AM

Originally posted by tony_come

The meaning of "trap"?

One team is potentially overlooking an opponent because they are looking forward to their next game (since this is the last week before the bowl games, this would not be the case with these games).

One team is potentially underrating an opponent and thinking they will get an easy win (this could be the case here).

One team believes they have an "insurmountable advantage" over an opponent and will kick their opponent's ass (similar to the previous point, yet different), but in fact, they are overrating their competitive advantage and therefore not cover the spread.

**pacerboy** · 11-30-10, 04:18 AM

lolz

**pacerboy** · 11-30-10, 04:19 AM

Originally posted by Nickelicious

One team is potentially overlooking an opponent because they are looking forward to their next game (since this is the last week before the bowl games, this would not be the case with these games). One team is potentially underrating an opponent and thinking they will get an easy win (this could be the case here). One team believes they have an "insurmountable advantage" over an opponent and will kick their opponent's ass (similar to the previous point, yet different), but in fact, they are overrating their competitive advantage and not cover the spread.

this

**pavyracer** · 11-30-10, 08:21 AM

I'm betting the opposite of these plays. My definition of "trap" is based on the location of the hook on opening lines at 3, 7, 10 and 14. I have explained this before in another thread. It's hitting at 15-2 in the 3 weeks I posted it this year.

**Pete0** · 11-30-10, 10:53 PM

pavy, at what point do u take the wagers in general ?

i seem to be too late for most of them

lot of movement.

**pavyracer** · 11-30-10, 10:59 PM

Pete,

My system is based on the opening lines. Some of these games get hammered early in the week.

**Pete0** · 11-30-10, 11:10 PM

I see. Might still tease a few.

I will keep a lookout for your games early on in the future

Keep up the good work

**hoku808pc** · 12-01-10, 12:29 AM

Hey Pavy...

So when exactly do actually lock in the bet???

Right before game time??

If it works, I might have to tail a few...

Thanx

**M.W.** · 12-01-10, 11:53 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

I'm betting the opposite of these plays. My definition of "trap" is based on the location of the hook on opening lines at 3, 7, 10 and 14. I have explained this before in another thread. It's hitting at 15-2 in the 3 weeks I posted it this year.

NIU opened at -14. There was no hook.

UCLA and Wash St opened at +9. No hook.

I don't understand.

**M.W.** · 12-01-10, 11:56 PM

Nebraska opened at +2.5, not +3.5, so according to your theory Oklahoma is the trap.

Also UCF opened at +8, not +9.5.

**steve18** · 12-02-10, 01:11 AM

Illinois might be a little high, but I can see them beating Fresno State by a fg. Miami Ohio is gonna hang tough. They have been a great story this year.

**Sunde91** · 12-02-10, 03:04 AM

5-6 Oregon State, that just lost 38-0, is a trap against #1 team with lowest spread in a month getting massive public action.

Yes.

**BigdaddyQH** · 12-02-10, 09:01 AM

So you think that every game that has an opening line that you disagree with is a Trap game? One of the dumber posts that Ihave seen in a long time Pavy. Obviously you have no clue as to what the term "trap game" means. Also, I do not see any posted record for the season, so do not tell me about a 15-2 run.

**WorkHorse** · 12-02-10, 09:24 AM

I still don't know what "trap game" means. It the most overused, silly, boring term used on this forum. Trap is looking past another team??? We are at the end of the season for God's sake.

**pavyracer** · 12-02-10, 11:43 AM

OK..lets make this simple. If you don't understand how my 15-2 system works don't follow it. I have only used it for 3 weeks during the 15-2 run. It's documented in another thread with the same title. And the opening lines I took from sbrlines.com. Everything is well documented. This is a very good system for the 3 weeks that I have used it according to the 15-2 record.

**FrozenMAN** · 12-02-10, 01:13 PM

Originally posted by Brock Landers

The Illinois game is tough...after minnesota i would have told you they were going to lose outright. After the Northwestern game i don't know how Fresno could stop their running game.

lose out for the rest of the year LOLOL...WHO IS THIS GUY???? that minny loss really killed us as after last week we got everything we needed to happen and with that W we woulda been #4 in the big ten and headed to the capital one or outback bowl, which are both still slim shots of making by ya never know.....7-5 will be a nice season but a couple plays here and there vs minn/mich/mizzou/osu ya never know, coulda been an EASY 9 wins and even maybe 10

ILLINOIS WILL SHOW UP BIG TIME VERSUS THE DAWGS IN THE VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND LOOK TO SEAL UP A NICE 7-5 SEASON AND A DATE FOR A POSSIBLE GATOR BOWL GAME, IF NOT THEN THE TEXAS BOWL.....WE WANT TO AVENEGE THAT DISASTER AND WILD GAME FROM LAST YEAR IN THE HOUSE OF PAIGN...

FRESNO THOUGH SOLID, IS 2 FACED THIS YEAR AND THOUGH THEY'RE PRETTY GOOD AND TOUGH AT HOME, THE ILLINI LED BY THE ARM OF MR. SCHEELHAASE AND THE LEGS OF MR. LESHOURE WILL DO A NUMBER ON EM AND RESULT IN A

35-21 ILLINI VICTORY

**raiders510** · 12-02-10, 11:39 PM

hey pavy.....that au/azu game is 20-20 with about 24 seconds left in the game.....is it possible your first call of the week is gonna hit? Damn man....im about to lay 1 unit on each of your lines there. haha

**Extra Innings** · 12-02-10, 11:54 PM

**raiders510** · 12-02-10, 11:58 PM

7.5pt 2team ncaaf teaser for tomorrow on fresno state and n illinois

**MartinBlank** · 12-03-10, 12:01 AM

Good list, and I agree----lots of traps ahead.

**docvinny** · 12-03-10, 05:09 PM

thanks for putting this list up

**tailin junkie** · 12-03-10, 05:11 PM

does the same apply to miami (oh) +17.5 or +18...just want to know if the line movement changes anything?

**pavyracer** · 12-03-10, 05:31 PM

Originally posted by tailin junkie

does the same apply to miami (oh) +17.5 or +18...just want to know if the line movement changes anything?

Closing line does not factor in my picks. I post those early in the week based on opening lines. I would have to go back in the last 3 weeks and check if the closing line affected the outcome of the bet if placed on original line. For example last night line opened at -6.5 and closed at -4.5 and fading Arizona on either line would still have cashed your bet.

**vitalogist** · 12-03-10, 09:15 PM

Washington and Fresno are STRONG PLAYS.