Craps Is Beatable

**King Mayan** · 08-07-13, 10:04 PM

**crackerjack** · 08-07-13, 10:23 PM

Originally posted by curious

Perhaps I misunderstood. I thought you doubled up on every roll. What you mean is, I think, that you bet the don't pass. Then wait for an outcome. If you lose you double up. You are betting that no one player will beat the pass line again and again and again. Let's see how many times you can do this before you hit table limit.

A table with a limit of $100 to $5000
First Bet $100
Second bet $200
Third bet $400
Fourth bet $800
Fifth bet $1600
Sixth bet $3200
You can't double again because you are up against table limit now.

So, you are betting that no one will beat the pass line more than 6 times in a row.

But, when that lucky shooter does beat the pass line 7 times in a row you are now down $6,300. So to get even again with your $100 per shooter profit, you have to beat 63 shooters. OUCH. You better pack a lunch, your going to be at the casino a while.

You are betting shooter doesn't make 15 passes, not 7. You don't bet until 8 passes have been made...

**tto827** · 08-07-13, 10:34 PM

Originally posted by crackerjack

You are betting shooter doesn't make 15 passes, not 7. You don't bet until 8 passes have been made...

Idiotic statement. Chances of 15 passes being made starting from 8 is the exact same as 7 being made initially.

Previous outcomes in no way affect future outcomes.

All you'd be doing is sitting their waiting forever so your money lasts longer.

**AceSportsbook** · 08-09-13, 12:53 AM

Originally posted by tto827

Idiotic statement. Chances of 15 passes being made starting from 8 is the exact same as 7 being made initially.

Yeah, exactly. This gets confused so often, the misconception has its own name: The Gambler's Fallacy. Past outcomes do not affect future ones.

Although, to the subject of the thread, Craps is beatable. If you can set the dice just enough to reduce the occurrences of 7 slightly, you can change the house edge to negative and favor the player. Since the edge is so small in some cases, it only takes rolling 4 or 5 less sevens over 500 rolls to get an advantage.

**Broncos** · 08-09-13, 01:47 AM

The odds do not change. The probability does! ODDs <> PROBABILITY!

**konck** · 08-09-13, 02:28 AM

Lol so many players die chasing unreal jj I sat box in the 80's on a game that lasted 3 hrs an 8 mins I was probably involved in. Over 100 games that went at least 1hr 15 mins probably 500 in the hour range they all bust you if u start with 5 lose 10 in a row u lose 5k

**eidolon** · 08-09-13, 03:41 AM

i go to the Indian casino here, and they don't use the numbers on the dice, they use cards. So you roll 2 dice, but they just decide on which card to pick up if the sum is even or odd. Sucks balls. Buy I have noticed that when large odd cards come up, they come up frequently (12,12)

**jjgold** · 08-09-13, 04:30 PM

Best way is when you roll pass line and then back it up

**Killer_Demo** · 08-09-13, 09:32 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Best way is when you roll pass line and then back it up

Especially if the point is 4 or 10 pays 2 to 1

**robert_wrath** · 08-27-13, 08:08 AM

One issue I realize about betting on the "Wrong Side" is this:

I the roller hits 3-6 points - what I call the Turn of the Tide, immediately switch to the "Right Side". This will minimize the loses sustained.

**jjgold** · 08-27-13, 09:25 AM

Love craps

**andywend** · 08-27-13, 08:07 PM

Originally posted by Justin7

I don't say this lightly...

Craps is beatable, but it has a 3-month learning curve.

Stanford Wong (author of numerous blackjack books and "sharp sports betting) is hosting a seminar on "dice setting and controlled rolling" in Vegas in early October.

Are you claiming that Wong can control the outcome of at least one die by a particular way of dice setting even though both dice are required to hit the wall with each roll? Even if he can do this, its all a matter of time before casinos put the clamp on it and figure out a defense for it.

**Sam Odom** · 08-27-13, 08:22 PM

Craps is fun when the table is rolling... Only reason to play

**gauchojake** · 08-27-13, 09:06 PM

I have regularly beaten the craps machines at TI, Mirage, and Talking Stick.

**kyhawk** · 08-28-13, 06:09 AM

This thread is perfect example of why casinos always thrive. The hold for casinos on craps is the lowest, but the idea you can beat it longterm is ridiculous. The best thing that ever happened in the history of blackjack for casinos is that book about beating blackjack. Keep drinking the Jim Jones Koolaid if you must.

**jjgold** · 08-28-13, 08:11 AM

I wonder if those automated black jack tables are better than the live tables?

**Smoke** · 08-28-13, 08:28 AM

Dice control is only way

**jjgold** · 08-28-13, 06:18 PM

some of these online sites let you roll without making bets which is an edge

Just wait until dice lose or win like 5 times in a row and then go other way

**AceSportsbook** · 08-30-13, 03:42 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

some of these online sites let you roll without making bets which is an edge

Just wait until dice lose or win like 5 times in a row and then go other way

... question for you. If I roll a regular dice five times in a row and get a "6" every time, what are the odds of rolling a 6 on my next roll?

**Sam Odom** · 08-30-13, 07:23 AM

1-12

**jjgold** · 08-30-13, 08:17 AM

Ace no idea

Dice control works but takes years of practice

**Fishhead** · 08-30-13, 10:40 AM

Without "dice control", there are only two, possibly three, venues in the entire city that offer what I would consider worthwhile +EV craps......................

**kyhawk** · 08-30-13, 12:15 PM

I doubt there are few places in Vegas that even offer double odds. Ridiculous to play without that edge at least. Single odds is just burning money, but Vegas will thrive regardless.

**kyhawk** · 08-30-13, 12:21 PM

If you must play at least take 10X odds. I was wrong about few double odds. From Las Vegas Craps Survey.

Las Vegas Craps Survey - Gaming Guides - Wizard of Vegas

http://wizardofvegas.com/guides/craps-survey//

Survey of Craps rules in Las Vegas and surrounding areas

Introduction

Last update: June 24, 2013 — Casino Royale downgraded to 20x, Las Vegas Club downgraded to 3-4-5x.The purpose of this page is to show how much you can bet on the odds at the various Las Vegas casinos. The table also shows the combined house edge on the pass (and come) bet, assuming full odds are taken, and the combined house edge on the don't pass (and don't come). For 2x odds I assume the player can bet 2.5 his line bet on a point of 6 or 8. 3,4,5x means the player can bet 3 times his line bet on a point of 4 or 10, 4 times on a 5 or 9, and 5 times on a 6 or 8.I welcome readers to correct me if any of this information is outdated.

Aria	3,4,5x	0.374%	0.273%
Bally's	3,4,5x	0.374%	0.273%
Belagio	3,4,5x	0.374%	0.273%
Bill's Gambling Hall and Saloon	3,4,5x	0.374%	0.273%
Caesars Palace	3,4,5x	0.374%	0.273%
Casino Royale	20x	0.099%	0.065%
Circus Circus	2x	0.572%	0.431%
Cosmopolitan	3,4,5x	0.374%	0.273%
Encore	3,4,5x	0.374%	0.273%
Excalibur	3,4,5x	0.374%	0.273%
Flamingo	3,4,5x	0.374%	0.273%
Harrah's	3,4,5x	0.374%	0.273%
Imperial Palace	3,4,5x	0.374%	0.273%
Luxor	3,4,5x	0.374%	0.273%
Mandalay Bay	3,4,5x	0.374%	0.273%
MGM Grand	3,4,5x	0.374%	0.273%
Mirage	3,4,5x	0.374%	0.273%
Monte Carlo	3,4,5x	0.374%	0.273%
New York New York	3,4,5x	0.374%	0.273%
Palazzo	3,4,5x	0.374%	0.273%
Paris	3,4,5x	0.374%	0.273%
Planet Hollywood	3,4,5x	0.374%	0.273%
Riviera	10x	0.184%	0.124%
Stratosphere	10x	0.184%	0.124%
Treausre Island	3,4,5x	0.374%	0.273%
Tropicana	3,4,5x	0.374%	0.273%
Venetian	3,4,5x	0.374%	0.273%
Wynn	3,4,5x	0.374%	0.273%

Binion's	5x	0.326%	0.227%
California	2x	0.572%	0.431%
El Cortez	10x	0.184%	0.124%
Fitzgeralds	3,4,5x	0.374%	0.273%
Four Queens	5x	0.326%	0.227%
Fremont	2x	0.572%	0.431%
Golden Gate	10x	0.184%	0.124%
Golden Nugget	3,4,5x	0.374%	0.273%
Las Vegas Club	3,4,5x	0.374%	0.273%
Main Street Station	20x	0.099%	0.065%
Plaza	3,4,5x	0.374%	0.273%

Aliante Station	10x	0.184%	0.124%
Arizona Charlie's Boulder	10x	0.184%	0.124%
Arizona Charlie's Decatur	5x	0.326%	0.227%
Boulder Station	10x	0.184%	0.124%
Cannery	10x	0.184%	0.124%
Club Fortune	3x	0.374%	0.273%
Eastside Cannery	20x	0.099%	0.065%
Ellis Island	3,4,5x	0.374%	0.273%
Fiesta Rancho	10x	0.184%	0.124%
Gold Coast	3,4,5x	0.374%	0.273%
Green Valley Ranch	10x	0.184%	0.124%
Hard Rock	3,4,5x	0.374%	0.273%
Hooters	3,4,5x	0.374%	0.273%
Jerry's Nugget	2x	0.572%	0.431%
Joker Wild	10x	0.184%	0.124%
LVH	3,4,5x	0.374%	0.273%
Lucky's	5x	0.326%	0.227%
M	3,4,5x	0.374%	0.273%
Orleans	3,4,5x	0.374%	0.273%
Palace Station	10x	0.184%	0.124%
Palms	3,4,5x	0.374%	0.273%
Rampart	10x	0.184%	0.124%
Red Rock	10x	0.184%	0.124%
Rio	3,4,5x	0.374%	0.273%
Sam's Town	20x	0.099%	0.065%
Santa Fe Station	10x	0.184%	0.124%
Silver Nugget	3,4,5x	0.374%	0.273%
Silverton	10x	0.184%	0.124%
South Point	2x	0.572%	0.431%
Speedway	5x	0.326%	0.227%
Suncoast	5x	0.326%	0.227%
Sunset Station	10x	0.184%	0.124%
Terrible's	3,4,5x	0.374%	0.273%
Texas Station	10x	0.184%	0.124%
Tuscany	3,4,5x	0.374%	0.273%
Westin Causarina	3,4,5x	0.374%	0.273%
Wild Wild West	2x	0.572%	0.431%

Fiesta Henderson	10x	0.184%	0.124%
Hacienda	2x	0.572%	0.431%
Joker Wild	10x	0.184%	0.124%
Railroad Pass	2x	0.572%	0.431%

Gold Strike	2x	0.572%	0.431%
Whiskey Pete's	3,4,5x	0.374%	0.273%
Buffalo Bills	3,4,5x	0.374%	0.273%
Primm Valley	3,4,5x	0.374%	0.273%

**kfranz31** · 08-30-13, 06:10 PM

ypu have to watch the rollers also when one rolls a long roll what are the odds he rolls long again.....not very often..there is also no system 100 percent...but you can find good system percentages

**jjgold** · 08-30-13, 08:17 PM

kyhawk is correct

10x odds only way to go

**allabout the $$$** · 08-30-13, 09:26 PM

not finding 10x odds in ac

**jjgold** · 08-30-13, 10:33 PM

allabouthrmoney your probably right

ac a dump too

place going bankrupt

**chipper** · 09-02-13, 01:51 AM

15 passes in a row is rare BUT it will happen and when it does you'll still have your system BUT the casino will have your money!

**Fishhead** · 09-02-13, 07:50 AM

When I'm feeling heat from a particular casino, I usually hit up the craps table for half an hour a couple times a month to keep them off balance.

**BarkingToad** · 09-02-13, 08:48 AM

Seems like wasted effort, it may take a few hours before someone hits 8 in a row sometimes. Boring.

**darkhat** · 01-19-14, 11:08 AM

**Sam Odom** · 01-19-14, 11:33 AM

Originally posted by Fishhead

When I'm feeling heat from a particular casino, I usually hit up the craps table for half an hour a couple times a month to keep them off balance.

**broadway6** · 01-19-14, 11:52 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

All you do is wait for the roller to win 8 rolls in a row and then bet against him and keep doubling up. In dice they are not huge runs like in roulette where red can come out 20 times in a row. The dice game this will not happen or rarely happen and plus your are already have the odds in your favor betting the 9 consective roll. The only thing is you might be there for log periods of time and need a paper and pencil to keep track. It is a good way to grind like 60 to 80 a day.

I went last night and this happened twice and I then made my don't pass line bet on the nine roll, the first time I won on the first try and the second time on the 3rd try.

I made $200 and left.

this made me chuckle...

**Trep** · 01-31-14, 01:46 AM

Dice setting does work...just takes tons of practice. If Stanford Wong/etc state it does, it really does.

My hardway set is pretty good....but only at certain tables as each casino actually has different length/bumps/etc. You really just need to tap back wall and off. If pit boss isn't watching closely you can actually land in front of back wall and end there. Just sprinkle some light 2-ways so the stickman/etc don't pester you either.

Anyhow, I'm just too degenerate to practice and pace myself, but I think I actually hit 53 tops in my best roll.