6-16-2025
Rays -120
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6-15-2025
Giants +1.5
Royals -148
Dodgers team total under 5 -148Leave a comment:
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6-10-2025
Angels -155
Giants -225
We don’t normally like laying this kind of juice. In fact, we actively avoid it most of the time. But sometimes, the numbers justify it — and today’s Giants vs Rockies matchup is one of those cases.
The line is sitting around –225, which implies a 69% win probability. That’s steep. But our internal model — which weighs starting pitcher quality, bullpen performance, offensive metrics, and home/road splits — projects the Giants closer to 73% to win. That gives us about a +4% edge over the market, which is significant when all signals align.
Matchup Breakdown:- Starting Pitchers: Kyle Harrison (SF) vs Carson Palmquist (COL).
Harrison’s been solid: 4.34 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 19 K in 18.2 IP. Palmquist? 8.50 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, high walk rate. Clear mismatch. - Bullpens: Giants pen ranks top 10 in ERA/WHIP; Rockies’ pen is bottom-tier in both.
- Offense: SF has consistent producers in Ramos, Chapman, Flores. Colorado is hitting .219 as a team with one real threat (Hunter Goodman).
- Trends: Giants are hot — 5 straight wins. Rockies are 6–25 at home this season. Not a typo.
This isn’t a YOLO pick. It’s not a square “better team wins” take. It’s a spot where every edge stacks up: SP, bullpen, offense, team form, home/road trend, and even motivation.
We’ll usually pass on laying –225. But when our model says it should be –270 or worse, we listen.
Final Play: Giants ML (–225)
Let’s cash it.
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- Starting Pitchers: Kyle Harrison (SF) vs Carson Palmquist (COL).
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I created a model for MLB that is threatening to end the industry.
It started slow but then I made some tweaks to it and now its on fire. Im super excited about this. Its 11-3 on my last 14 MLB plays up around 12 units.
The model is based on advanced statistics, trends and lines. What is extremely encouraging is it picks only a couple games a day and barring negative variance it seems to be spot on, especially on the totals. I'll start posting here so people can see for themselves.
6-5-25
Giants -114
Mets/Dodgers under 9.5 -109
Pirates/Astros under 7.5 +100
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