I created a model for MLB that is threatening to end the industry.

[mjsuax13]

That's what I said. Why bother grading if the system is so great? Just bet each play on your book and let the book grade it and show us the cash out.

Right?! Why not bet $1 million a game and sit back and collect your winnings and laugh at all of us minions.

[stevenash]

It really is a simple exercise but he isn’t betting at all. We’ve seen this 1000 times over the years.

I got this, MJ.

Mr. Wreckers' straight-up record is indeed 41-34-3.
He's made 78 wagers over the past 38 days.

Of those 78 wagers, he bet the favorite 72 times, three times he bet the dog, and the other three wagers were a pick.
77 of the 78 bets were one-unit flat bets, the other was a 2* bet, which, horrors of horrors, failed.

So what we have here is a flat betting serial chalk layer.
Always a winning formula in the world of baseball betting.

The three underdogs that Mr. Wrecker bet had odds of +122, +110, and +105
( I know, pretty ballsy, huh?)
The dogs went 2-1.

Assuming 1* = 100 dollars, he collected 3,900 dollars on the chalk, and picked up another 232 dollars on the two dogs that won (+122, and +110) for a total of 4,132 dollars.

With the juice, his 37 losses cost him 4895 dollars, for a net loss of 763 dollars (-7.63*)

Sixteen of those 37 losses he laid -150 or greater, six of those were losses of -170 or greater, and a -210 loss to boot.

Which goes to show what I've been preaching here for the last fourteen years, there's no quicker burial in sports betting than volume betting baseball chalk, especially when 77 out of 78 bets are 1* flats.

[HoleWrecker]

What’s funny is the headline in this thread and your record keeping. You are too dumb to realize that’s why you are getting massive heat.

No whats funny is they make bozos like you moderators and wonder why this site is a joke now. I updated the record several times. You guys just get off on playing toxic internet boy.

[HoleWrecker]

The two unit play was Pirates/Astros under and it hit. I remember that one. This is fucking absurd. I know for an absolute fact that my picks are up in this thread.

[HoleWrecker]

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  HoleWrecker
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  #36
  06-25-25, 03:28 AM
  6/25/2025
  
  Twins First 5 Innings -130
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  HoleWrecker
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  #37
  06-25-25, 02:08 PM
  6-25-2025
  
  
  
  Angles F5 -140
  
  Twins F5 -130
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  HoleWrecker
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  #38
  06-25-25, 04:51 PM
  Detailed Pick Breakdown

  June 5th	Giants Moneyline	Moneyline	-114	Loss	-1.14
  June 5th	Mets vs Dodgers Under 9.5	Total (Under)	-109	Loss	-1.09
  June 5th	Pirates vs Astros Under 7.5	Total (Under)	+100	Win	+1.00
  June 5th	Twins Moneyline	Moneyline	-186	Loss	-1.86
  June 6th	Giants Moneyline	Moneyline	+122	Win	+1.22
  June 7th	Astros vs Guardians Under 7.5	Total (Under)	-120	Win	+2.00 (2 units)
  June 8th	Phillies vs Pirates Under 7	Total (Under)	-115	Win	+1.00
  June 8th	Twins Moneyline	Moneyline	-170	Win	+1.00
  June 9th	Reds vs Guardians Under 8.5	Total (Under)	+100	Loss	-1.00
  June 10th	Angels Moneyline	Moneyline	-155	Win	+1.00
  June 10th	Giants Moneyline	Moneyline	-225	Win	+1.00
  June 11th	Angels Moneyline	Moneyline	-130	Win	+1.00
  June 13th	Mets Moneyline	Moneyline	-159	Loss	-1.59
  June 13th	Royals Moneyline	Moneyline	-152	Win	+1.00
  June 15th	Royals Moneyline	Moneyline	-148	Loss	-1.48
  June 15th	Giants +1.5 Runs Line	Run Line	N/A	Win	+1.00
  June 15th	Dodgers Team Total Under 5	Team Total (Under)	-148	Push	0.00
  June 16th	Rays Moneyline	Moneyline	-120	Win	+1.00
  June 16th	Mariners Moneyline	Moneyline	-166	Loss	-1.66
  June 16th	Nationals Moneyline	Moneyline	-165	Loss	-1.65
  June 17th	Giants Moneyline	Moneyline	-153	Win	+1.00
  June 18th	Blue Jays Moneyline	Moneyline	-110	Win	+1.00
  June 19th	Braves/Mets First 5 Innings Under 4.5	Total (Under)	-115	Win	+1.00
  June 19th	Giants Moneyline	Moneyline	-168	Win	+1.00
  June 19th	Rays/Tigers First 5 Innings Under 4.5	Total (Under)	-125	Win	+1.00
  June 20th	Giants Moneyline	Moneyline	-120	Loss	-1.20
  June 20th	Rays/Tigers First 5 Innings Under 4.5	Total (Under)	-125	Win	+1.00
  June 20th	Rockies/Dbacks Over 12	Total (Over)	-110	Loss	-1.10
  June 20th	Angels/Astros First 5 Innings Under 4	Total (Under)	+100	Win	+1.00
  June 22nd	Giants Moneyline	Moneyline	-150	Win	+1.00
  June 22nd	Dodgers Moneyline	Moneyline	-220	Win	+1.00
  June 23rd	Braves First 5 Innings	Total (Under)	-150	Win	+1.00
  June 23rd	Angels Full Game	Moneyline	+100	Win	+1.00
  June 24th	Giants Moneyline	Moneyline	-170	Loss	-1.70
  June 24th	Yankees Moneyline	Moneyline	-153	Loss	-1.53
  June 24th	Phillies/Astros First 5 Innings Under 3.5	Total (Under)	+105	Win	+1.05

[HoleWrecker]

June 7th Astros/Guardians under 7.5 for 2 units. WIN

[stevenash]

June 7th Astros/Guardians under 7.5 for 2 units. WIN

What are you laying?
-110, -115?

[HoleWrecker]

What are the people here smoking? Thats a better question.

[stevenash]

I see it now, -120.

[mjsuax13]

No whats funny is they make bozos like you moderators and wonder why this site is a joke now. I updated the record several times. You guys just get off on playing toxic internet boy.

Oh please… you’ve been here an hour and are another ghost. The site will survive with or without both of us. You are just buried and angry you got called out. Enjoy your hole wrecking!

[mjsuax13]

I got this, MJ.

Mr. Wreckers' straight-up record is indeed 41-34-3.
He's made 78 wagers over the past 38 days.

Of those 78 wagers, he bet the favorite 72 times, three times he bet the dog, and the other three wagers were a pick.
77 of the 78 bets were one-unit flat bets, the other was a 2* bet, which, horrors of horrors, failed.

So what we have here is a flat betting serial chalk layer.
Always a winning formula in the world of baseball betting.

The three underdogs that Mr. Wrecker bet had odds of +122, +110, and +105
( I know, pretty ballsy, huh?)
The dogs went 2-1.

Assuming 1* = 100 dollars, he collected 3,900 dollars on the chalk, and picked up another 232 dollars on the two dogs that won (+122, and +110) for a total of 4,132 dollars.

With the juice, his 37 losses cost him 4895 dollars, for a net loss of 763 dollars (-7.63*)

Sixteen of those 37 losses he laid -150 or greater, six of those were losses of -170 or greater, and a -210 loss to boot.

Which goes to show what I've been preaching here for the last fourteen years, there's no quicker burial in sports betting than volume betting baseball chalk, especially when 77 out of 78 bets are 1* flats.

Well done. The industry is looking forward to more plays!

[str]

Here art SBR, you get a little of everything.

One thing you can count on is the mods here WANT you to win. They WANT you to succeed.

A winning thread with solid info and a reason WHY a play is or is not made, drives more views and more interest. It is logical information in a game where very little is typically displayed.

Who doesn't want to see that?

So don't get mad at them for commenting or doing the math for all to see.

Nobody says any of this stuff is easy. We all know that.

Attacking people makes you or anyone instantly lose all credibility.

Hope that makes sense to you.

[pavyracer]

It has been proven over and over again in MLB that a model to work needs data for current season. By the time enough data is collected to validate the system the season is over. So it never works.

[EnTaroTuna]

The two unit play was Pirates/Astros under and it hit. I remember that one. This is fucking absurd. I know for an absolute fact that my picks are up in this thread.

June 7th Astros/Guardians under 7.5 for 2 units. WIN

Lol, can't even keep his story straight on the only 2 unit bet he made. What's funnier is that neither of these unders hit anyway. I already showed him that these 2 bets were logged improperly.

Are you using ChatGPT to grade the results for you? The results generally line up but it misclassified 5 bets in that table:
6/5 Giants ML Loss - Giants won
6/5 Pirates/Astros Under 7.5 - 10 runs
6/7 Astros/Guardians Under 7.5 - 8 runs, went over in extra innings
6/13 Royals ML Win, lost to Athletics
6/21 Angels/Astros F5 Under 4 - 8 runs first 5 innings

Don't know how to make it any clearer that his record keeping is trash. I previously thought he wasn't doing it on purpose, that it was just ChatGPT grading them wrong or something, but now I know he's just trolling for comments.

[louisvillekid]

I'm now thinking whoever is behind this acct is an SBR employee or paid by them to deliberately shit-post.

No way someone is being this retarded for free.

[stevenash]

One thing you can count on is the mods here WANT you to win. They WANT you to succeed.

A winning thread with solid info and a reason WHY a play is or is not made, drives more views and more interest. It is logical information in a game where very little is typically displayed.

Who doesn't want to see that?

So don't get mad at them for commenting or doing the math for all to see.

Nobody says any of this stuff is easy. We all know that.

Attacking people makes you or anyone instantly lose all credibility.

You missed your calling, Mr. Str.
You have diplomacy up and down your veins, sir.

Except for a few sociopaths suffering from ASPB, nobody gets satisfaction from others' failures.
Captain Obvious once said, Nothing succeeds like success, If a group of posters gets on a heater, the positive buzz will spread like wildfire.

It's not mandatory, but when someone creates a pick thread or writes up a spot play, I would like to know as to why they're backing that side. That's just my preference, though, and it's not mandatory. As Jack McCoy used to say, "it lends towards credibility."

I used to catch grief, not so much these days, but I love to write up eight-paragraph plays.
Peavy still breaks my balls about my long-winded musings.
That's just my style, I love to write, especially sports, what can I tell you, I'm just a geek from way back.
Point being, whatever works for you, go for it.

Simplicity and efficiency often go hand in hand.
The same principle applies here; the easiest way to track your plays is to post a brief recap the following day. Did you win or lose? How many units were won or lost, etc, if you update your records as they happen, or the day after, the possibility of confusion is reduced to almost nil, and it removes a lot of doubt regarding one's integrity. In any business, especially this one, once you lose trust from your peers, the chances of redemption are also gone.

The quickest way to fall out of favor is to not track your plays, then come back a week later and state (this is a hypothetical), "I went 9 -2 last week for an 8.18* net profit, when in actuality they went six and six for the week and lost a few units.
What's even worse than that is when you try to point out the errors, you get shouted down by the offender that he's correct, and it's we who are all wrong, while hurling 'f' bombs and other choice perjoratives while doing so.
Nothing pisses me off more than somebody who verbally abuses my family or my dogs, and whatnot.
And in some perverse, abstract way, the dysfunctional family here at SBR
is family too, just don't hog all the smashed taters at the dinner table, please.

(I can hear you guys now, by the way, "Hey Nash, get on with it already, you're wearing me out here already, just wrap it up already, you windbg you)

I need to wrap this up anyway and move on to other things.
My best advice?

If somebody doesn't know the answer to a particular question, just say I don't know, but I can research that.
That reply will always get you a truckload of respect.

If somebody points out an honest mistake you made, the reply that'll get you 100 percent respect every time is "I'm sorry, that was an honest mistake, thank you for pointing that out to me."

Banning a user is always the last resort, unless it's a habitual spammer, or an incorrigible jakass user that doesn't get it, and never will get it after several suspensions (timeouts) where push comes to shove, and we have no other options left.
Opti had to drill that into my thick blockhead when I started moderating here almost three years ago.

Finally (but I'm not making promises that I can't keep), if being a jackass and a goofball were a bannable offense, I would have sized nine myself to the gutter at least 40 times over by now.

[ttwarrior1]

just wait for nfl this season. Im predicting the fav to win 90 percent

[HoleWrecker]

7-18-2025





Welcome back MLB. Lets wreck the 2nd half.



Detroit Tigers F5 ML -135

[HoleWrecker]

7-18-2025



Minnesota Twins Team Total over 5.5 -140

Detroit Tigers F5 ML -135