2025 NBA Finals: Thunder vs. Pacers
SBR's C Jackson Cowart writes We'll be treated to a new NBA champion this year as the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers face off in the 2025 NBA Finals with Game 1 set for Thursday at 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC).
The Thunder (-700) are the biggest NBA Finals favorites since 2018 as they look to punctuate one of the best seasons in league history with their first championship since relocating from Seattle in 2008. They'll have to get past the Pacers (+550), who are seeking their first title in franchise history.
Thunder vs. Pacers stats
All advanced and traditional statistics from NBA.com; rank based on the regular season.
⭐ Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Tyrese Haliburton
Where else could we start? The two NBA Finals MVP odds favorites are among the most exciting stars in the sport with Gilgeous-Alexander cashing his NBA MVP odds in the regular season and Haliburton emerging as a postseason hero.
SGA has earned criticism as a "free-throw merchant" en route to MVP honors, but the Thunder star also ranked third in made 2-pointers per game (9.2) while shooting a ridiculous 57.1% inside the arc. He also paced the league in total win shares (16.7) - ending Nikola Jokic's four-year run - and defensive win shares (4.8) while ranking fifth in steals per game (1.7).
That defensive prowess will be tested against Haliburton, who has excelled as a conductor with the ball in his hands but hasn't faced a unit as historically stingy as OKC's. The Thunder's perimeter length could pose issues for Haliburton at the point of attack, while Indiana will need the likes of Haliburton and Andrew Nembhard to frustrate Gilgeous-Alexander to have any shot in this series.
Expert prediction: Who wins the 2025 NBA Finals?
Look, it's hard to go against history. The Thunder posted the second-best net rating in NBA history, and the other four teams in the top five all won the title. OKC's odds to win this series (-700) - which represent an 87.5% chance - are tied for the seventh-shortest of all time; the other six won it all.
I have a tremendous amount of respect for these Pacers, who play a cohesive style of basketball that accentuates the talents of their starting five and force opponents to match their impressive depth. The only problem? Oklahoma City is deeper, more athletic, and simply more skilled on both ends of the court.
The Thunder have lost a combined four games in their last two series, so I won't be surprised when Indiana's pace and outside shooting earn it a win - likely in Game 3 or Game 4 at home. But I fully expect Oklahoma City to shut the door in Game 5 and clinch the city's first-ever championship in front of its fans.
✅ Best bet: Thunder in five games (+250 via DraftKings)
* if necessary
The Thunder (-700) are the biggest NBA Finals favorites since 2018 as they look to punctuate one of the best seasons in league history with their first championship since relocating from Seattle in 2008. They'll have to get past the Pacers (+550), who are seeking their first title in franchise history.
Thunder vs. Pacers stats
All advanced and traditional statistics from NBA.com; rank based on the regular season.
| Offensive rating | 119.2 (3rd) ✅ | 115.4 (9th) |
| Defensive rating | 106.6 (1st) ✅ | 113.3 (T-13th) |
| Net rating | 12.7 (1st) ✅ | 2.1 (13th) |
| Points per game | 120.5 (4th) ✅ | 117.4 (7th) |
| Assists per game | 26.9 (12th) | 29.2 (3rd) ✅ |
| Rebounds per game | 44.8 (11th) ✅ | 41.8 (28th) |
| Field-goal percentage | 48.2% (7th) | 48.8% (3rd) ✅ |
| 3-point percentage | 37.4% (6th) ✅ | 36.8% (9th) |
| Turnovers per game | 11.7 (1st) ✅ | 13.2 (T-3rd) |
| Opponent points per game | 107.6 (3rd) ✅ | 115.1 (17th) |
| Blocks per game | 5.7 (2nd) ✅ | 5.5 (6th) |
| Steals per game | 10.3 (1st) ✅ | 8.5 (9th) |
⭐ Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Tyrese Haliburton
Where else could we start? The two NBA Finals MVP odds favorites are among the most exciting stars in the sport with Gilgeous-Alexander cashing his NBA MVP odds in the regular season and Haliburton emerging as a postseason hero.
SGA has earned criticism as a "free-throw merchant" en route to MVP honors, but the Thunder star also ranked third in made 2-pointers per game (9.2) while shooting a ridiculous 57.1% inside the arc. He also paced the league in total win shares (16.7) - ending Nikola Jokic's four-year run - and defensive win shares (4.8) while ranking fifth in steals per game (1.7).
That defensive prowess will be tested against Haliburton, who has excelled as a conductor with the ball in his hands but hasn't faced a unit as historically stingy as OKC's. The Thunder's perimeter length could pose issues for Haliburton at the point of attack, while Indiana will need the likes of Haliburton and Andrew Nembhard to frustrate Gilgeous-Alexander to have any shot in this series.
Expert prediction: Who wins the 2025 NBA Finals?
Look, it's hard to go against history. The Thunder posted the second-best net rating in NBA history, and the other four teams in the top five all won the title. OKC's odds to win this series (-700) - which represent an 87.5% chance - are tied for the seventh-shortest of all time; the other six won it all.
I have a tremendous amount of respect for these Pacers, who play a cohesive style of basketball that accentuates the talents of their starting five and force opponents to match their impressive depth. The only problem? Oklahoma City is deeper, more athletic, and simply more skilled on both ends of the court.
The Thunder have lost a combined four games in their last two series, so I won't be surprised when Indiana's pace and outside shooting earn it a win - likely in Game 3 or Game 4 at home. But I fully expect Oklahoma City to shut the door in Game 5 and clinch the city's first-ever championship in front of its fans.
✅ Best bet: Thunder in five games (+250 via DraftKings)
- Game 1: Thursday, June 5 at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
- Game 2: Sunday, June 8 at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City (8 p.m. ET, ABC)
- Game 3: Wednesday, June 11 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
- Game 4: Friday, June 13 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
- Game 5: Monday, June 16 at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC)*
- Game 6: Thursday, June 19 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC)*
- Game 7: Sunday, June 22 at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City (8 p.m. ET, ABC)*
* if necessary
