NBA WCF: Timberwolves vs Thunder Predictions

**SBR Andy** · 05-20-25, 10:17 AM

NBA Western Conference Finals predictions from SBR's Gabe Henderson:

Thunder to Win Series (-303 Caesars)

"Truth be told, Oklahoma City had little to play for in the regular season. Fans and skeptics wanted to see how this young Thunder team would fare in its second straight postseason, and after sweeping Memphis, the top seed answered that question in emphatic fashion against Denver.

The Nuggets - who possess a championship-winning core, experience, and the world's best player - gave OKC everything it could handle and then some. However, the Thunder showed maturity and poise beyond their years and won the series in seven games. Now, there's little question about who the title favorites are going forward.

While Minnesota has made quick work of Los Angeles and Golden State to get here, the Lakers and Warriors were deeply flawed teams. The Timberwolves dominated both with physicality and size, with the former not having a starting-level big on its roster and the latter missing Stephen Curry for all but 13 minutes.

This isn't intended to detract from Minnesota's accomplishments, but rather to put the situation into context before analyzing the Western Conference Finals. In the end, Oklahoma City has all of the necessary tools to dominate the Timberwolves.

The Thunder are among the best defensive teams in history. Mark Daigneault's men thrive on creating turnovers, and they are among the best transition teams in the league, as we saw in Game 7 against the Nuggets. Meanwhile, Minnesota can get careless in possession, which plays right into its opponent's hands.

The holes that the Timberwolves exploited with Rudy Gobert won't be there against Oklahoma City, which has two seven-footers (Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren) as rim protectors. If the Thunder's defense plays as well in this series as it did against Denver, it's unlikely Minnesota has an answer.

The Timberwolves are talented enough to steal a pair of games in this series, especially if they overwhelm OKC from 3-point range. Nevertheless, unless Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle play the best basketball of their lives, the West's top seed should take care of business rather easily."

Timberwolves vs Thunder series best bets:

Thunder win series 4-2 (+390 FanDuel)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to score 25+ in every game (+270 FanDuel)
Alex Caruso to record 1+ made 3-pointer in every game (+320 FanDuel)

**brock** · 05-20-25, 12:30 PM

Tonight's game I see a -6.5. My take Oklahoma -6.5

**SBR Andy** · 05-20-25, 12:34 PM

Timberwolves vs Thunder Game 1 player prop picks from SBR's Gabe Henderson:

Rudy Gobert Under 9.5 points (-120 BetMGM)

"Gobert has been a big talking point in these playoffs due to his stellar closeout games against both Golden State and Los Angeles. He scored 17 and 27 points in those games, respectively, but he's still gone Under 10 points at an 80% clip this postseason.

Oklahoma City will play a two-big lineup at times, which is very different from the small-ball approaches taken by the Lakers and Clippers. The Thunder have elite-level rim protectors across the board, so don't expect Gobert to get much action in the scoring department."

Alex Caruso Over 1.5 made 3-pointers (+116 FanDuel)

"Caruso has been Mr. Consistent from beyond the arc this postseason, cashing this prop for us in the past. He went Over 1.5 made 3-pointers in five of seven games in the last series, so it's surprising to see our best sports betting apps still offering the play at plus-money."

Bonus bet: Jalen Williams to record a double-double (+1300 DraftKings)

"Williams has just three double-doubles this season, but he's gotten close numerous times in the playoffs and against the Timberwolves. J-Dub's assist numbers are up in the postseason, as he averages 5.7 per game, and even touched double-digits in Game 6.

Minnesota's biggest flaw is its inability to take care of the basketball. The Thunder could capitalize on these mistakes, turning turnovers into transition points, assisted by anyone on the floor."

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 05-20-25, 12:47 PM

Thunder win series 4-2 (+390 FanDuel)
...Sort of like this one. Seems just about right to me.
...I like the angle on OKC not going full-throttle in the Reg Season. DEN pressed them, and they had just enough.
...MINN has played as well as possible. So, OKC is on notice.
...MINN is solid. They're too good to get blanked. OKC could be 3-2 going into Gm6, which would make +390 a great price.

**Zawad** · 05-20-25, 01:03 PM

I also take Oklahoma -6.5

**Headsterx** · 05-20-25, 03:09 PM

The Finals that NBA doesn’t want will happen…

Pacers v. Thunder

**ttwarrior1** · 05-20-25, 04:14 PM

going to 7

**stevenash** · 05-20-25, 07:08 PM

Tons of value on the Wolves to win the series, and Minny has a big edge with playoff experience, not only that, Minny's 1-8 roster is deeper (IMO) than OKC's 1-8 rotation.

Even if I'm wrong, and trust me on this, I've been wrong before, and I'll be wrong again, Minny (IMO) is the way to go here.

**SBR Andy** · 05-21-25, 07:25 AM

The Thunder dominate the second half to take Game 1 by a score of 114-88.

Updated series odds via DraftKings: Thunder -650 / Timberwolves +475

**Optional** · 05-26-25, 03:08 PM

Gabe Henderson writes, The Oklahoma City Thunder look to bounce back from an embarrassing loss last time out to the Minnesota Timberwolves, and they'll take the floor for Game 4 at 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) from Target Center in Minneapolis.

Game 4 trends

Oklahoma City is 25-19-2 against the spread on the road, and it boasts a 56.1% cover rate (23-18-2) as an away favorite.
Edwards has grabbed nine boards in all three games during the Western Conference Finals.
Caruso has posted two-plus made 3-pointers in six of his past 10 games.
Alexander-Walker has cleared this prop in his last two outings against the Thunder.
Gilgeous-Alexander has gone Over this total in six of 14 playoff games, including once against Minnesota.

Game 4 analysis

Minnesota beat the brakes off Oklahoma City in Game 3. Anthony Edwards and Co. handed the Thunder their worst loss in playoff history en route to a 143-101 victory to pull one game back in the series.

While there's much to get excited about in the Land of 10,000 Lakes, the optimism is cautious. Oklahoma City is 3-0 on the back of a loss this postseason. The Thunder have won those bounceback opportunities by an average of 26.67 points per game, largely thanks to Gilgeous-Alexander scoring 31.67 PPG in those spots.

Best Thunder vs. Timberwolves parlay picks

Our NEW NBA player prop odds tool can help you find the best NBA odds across legal sportsbooks in your area!

✅ 1st leg: Thunder -3.5 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ 2nd leg: Anthony Edwards Over 8.5 rebounds (+120) ⭐⭐⭐
✅ 3rd leg: Alex Caruso Over 1.5 made 3-pointers(+145) ⭐⭐⭐
✅ 4th leg: Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 8.5 points(-110) ⭐⭐⭐
✅ 5th leg: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 31.5 points(-105) ⭐⭐

Best odds: +3822 via BetMGM ($10 to win $382.12)

Game 4 odds movement

Unsurprisingly, the NBA Championship odds favorite Thunder are favorites. The visitors opened as 3.5-point favorites, but the line has continued to decrease throughout the day as the Timberwolves continue to get the bulk of the wagers (52%), and you can get the favorite with a spread as small as -2.5 points.

The Over has seen the bulk of the action on the total (69%) as the opening line has moved from 217.5 to as high as 219.5

**Optional** · 05-28-25, 05:09 AM

Will Oklahoma City book its place in the 2025 NBA Finals? Or can Anthony Edwards help keep Minnesota's season alive?

Gabe Henderson writes; The Oklahoma City Thunder are within one win of the NBA Finals for the first time since 2016, and they take the court in Game 5 against the Minnesota Timberwolves with a chance to wrap up the Western Conference Finals. Our Timberwolves vs. Thunder player props highlight key individuals who could impact the outcome.

⛹️ Best Timberwolves vs. Thunder player props

✅ Chet Holmgren Over 15.5 points (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
✅ Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 9.5 points (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Chet Holmgren Over 15.5 points ⭐⭐⭐

Holmgren has been one of the X-factors for Oklahoma City, coming up especially clutch during the close Game 4 victory in Minnesota. He's been phenomenal at both ends of the floor, averaging 17 points and two blocks + steals per game in the series.

The Gonzaga product has cleared this prop comfortably in two of the last three outings against the Timberwolves. The only outlier was the blowout in Game 3, when the center played just 21 minutes.

Holmgren is in line for another productive night in Game 5, so we'll take a flier on him to go Over 15.5 points at our best sports betting sites.

✅ Best odds: -105 via BetMGM (bet $10 to win $9.52 profit)

Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 9.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Bonjour, did you know Alexander-Walker is the cousin of the notorious free-throw merchant, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander? Sorry to steal your thunder, and no pun intended, Doris Burke. All jokes aside, Minnesota's prized Canadian has been hugely profitable for us throughout the last three games.

Alexander-Walker has gone Over 9.5 points at a 75% clip in this series. Oddsmakers at our best sports betting apps have raised his total by a point to account for his uptick in scoring. But that won't deter us from playing this market. He's stymied Oklahoma City's defense recently, putting up 17.3 points per game since Game 2.

The chance at an even-money return is worth the extra point for someone who has comfortably chipped in with double-digit points in his last three appearances.

✅ Best odds: +100 via DraftKings (bet $10 to win $10 profit)

**ProSportsEdge** · 05-28-25, 06:34 AM

Originally posted by SBR Andy

The #6 Minnesota Timberwolves take on the #1 Oklahoma City Thunder in the NBA Western Conference Finals.

Series Odds via DraftKings: Thunder -330 / Timberwolves +265

Can the well-rested Twolves give OKC a run after they went 7 games with Denver or is the Thunder's depth too much to handle? Post your series and game predictions in this thread!

Wolves got the fight, but OKC’s depth might be too much. Should be a great series—Thunder in 6!