Clinton is 50 to 1 has to be worth a shot
-
-
In the last election I was convinced that hill would beat trump in a rematch before they went w Joe
I doubt this happens again tho as she looks pretty bad now
I am w u that could b a very deep sleeper tho
somebody nobody is looking at now 100-1 or more
remember trump was 100-1 in 2016Comment -
i think it can only be kamala if it isnt brandon. if she were to be skipped, black women would shitt their pantsComment -
Trump was 100/1 b4 he got elected. Political pundits thought it was impossible.
The polling projections are sometimes flawed. If there is a bias in the polling, the projection is wrong.
This one is tough to read:
*Is there any scenario where Biden has another term?
...If Silver is a respected Political projector, he would indicate that it's quite possible.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Trump is winning the election unless they assassinate him.Comment -
Noone can beat Trump. Everyone is seeing how wrong they were.Comment -
Comment -
You quoted another poster's "no one can beat Trump" post.
Then replied "only if it isn't Biden" implying anyone other than Biden would get squashed by Trump.
You followed that up with "100% he (Trump) beats Sleepy Joe" completely contradicting your prior statement.
Man are you dumb.Comment -
Had you quoted a "49ers are definitely winning the Super Bowl" post and then replied with "only if it isn't Purdy" how else would one interpret that other than "Niners win SB with anyone other than Purdy?"
Make sense, blockhead?
Are we all invited to your kindergarten graduation?Comment -
I thought there was no way Trump could possibly get elected in 2016, and I think there’s no way Biden can possibly get elected in 2024. Do with this information as you wish
I’m no politioso as I find life to be depressing enough as it is to closely follow politics, but the right seems to be comprised of 1) MAGA and 2) whatever the hell a conservative was before Trump came out of the sewer. MAGA folks will obviously vote for Trump and the other normal conservatives who may not like his felonious fornicating ways will reluctantly vote for him as well because there’s zero chance they’ll vote Biden because they’re terrified of anything in the world as they know it changing or their religion or status quo being challenged at all. And the right actually votes, so not voting is not an option for most of these people.
The left however is already splintered into way too many factions as it is and the Democratic Party has no idea how to unite their side of the aisle at all, and now there’s a blathering nursing home patient who’s supposed to inspire them; therefore, you’ll get much more third party dissension and general voter apathy where they don’t vote for anyone because the choices make them curl up into a ball and have to take a personal week off of work to sit in a dark corner covered in a blanket, crying intermittently into their bowl of granola and vegan yogurt. There’s also a lot of people who would otherwise vote blue who will not cast a vote for Biden due to Biden’s support for Israel in the Gaza situation.
And all these factors will equal a Trump victory in my ever so humble opinion. As stated before I’ve been wrong about these things before though. I also didn’t think Bush could get re-elected in 04 either. Fade or followComment -
I think if the left chooses Harris she’ll likely lose and I think if they choose Gavin Newsom then he would win. I think he could present well enough to get blue voters off their chairs where they’d otherwise be apathetic
However, the reason I did so many paragraphs on Trump v Biden and not a longshot as the thread suggests is because I have zero faith in the democratic party to do anything that ever makes any fukking sense. Bernie Sanders would have beaten Trump, I mean so many young people who didn’t show up for Hillary would have shown up for Bernie, and I do think Newsom would get more folks out than Biden. But they are too dumb to do anything that makes senseComment -
If they want to replace Biden and still be able to use his $90 some million campaign cash, it would have to be Kamala. Because she is also listed as a candidate on the Biden for President account. Otherwise it could go to charity, the DNC, or a super PAC.
But damn, RFK Jr. is a hugggeeee underdog. Even under Kamala (which is surprising, because I find that she is just horribly unpopular with most voters).Comment -
Betting against MAGA is the gift that keeps on giving. 18' 20' 22' they just keep coming back with the same ole slop.
Still adding 1K a month to the Dem Party + odds.Comment -
The 127M in the Biden coffin i mean coffers can only be transferred to Kamala no one else as she is on the ticket with him so the campaign funds would go to her.
she is polling 50% of the women's vote vs 43% for trump.
an all female ticket of Kamala and Gretchen would beat trump.
they get 60% of the female votes and would hold MI, WI, PA, the blue wall.
they would get to 270 electoral college votes and win the 2024 general election.
women's rights are on the ballot and two women would carry that flag all the way to the finish line.
AZ and NV are going Red this year but GA would likely go Blue again in '24 if it is kamala and gretchenComment -
Comment -
Cmon, man. What is YOUR play?
You trying to hit a 20/1 shot? Why do you think that's +EV?
In fairness to Johnny, he is right about the history of Presidential elections. If you go back a ways, Betting mkt dogs often got home. Truman over Dewey being the most famous.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Here is what I was looking for:
2016: Trump was around +400 just days b4 the election.
1976: Carter +100 (vs Ford)
1948: Truman +1500 (vs Dewey) - in one of the great Underdog wins of All Time.
1876 to 1892: The small Dog won five straight times.
...It usually has to do with the polling coming out of a region biased to a certain party.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Trump was +4500 in June 2015. I bet $200 on him at +4000. Should have bet more I knowHere is what I was looking for:
2016: Trump was around +400 just days b4 the election.
1976: Carter +100 (vs Ford)
1948: Truman +1500 (vs Dewey) - in one of the great Underdog wins of All Time.
1876 to 1892: The small Dog won five straight times.
...It usually has to do with the polling coming out of a region biased to a certain party.
On election eve 2016, after Crooked won one or two small east coast States, Trump was getting +1100 on live betting. I know because I kept betting $20 and 3 different books. He fluctuated for a bit to +1000 then up a little then down to +800 and I continued to place bets. Then not to long after, when he was around +200, then it went to Trump -400 and kept on rising. I could be wrong but I think it actually went down to almost even money after Hillary looked as if she was gonna take a State, but that didn't last long.Comment -
Dwight, that's still a nice score. Salud.Trump was +4500 in June 2015. I bet $200 on him at +4000. Should have bet more I know
On election eve 2016, after Crooked won one or two small east coast States, Trump was getting +1100 on live betting. I know because I kept betting $20 and 3 different books. He fluctuated for a bit to +1000 then up a little then down to +800 and I continued to place bets. Then not to long after, when he was around +200, then it went to Trump -400 and kept on rising. I could be wrong but I think it actually went down to almost even money after Hillary looked as if she was gonna take a State, but that didn't last long.
I kept waiting for Silver's projection to go 90/10 on Hillary. But it didn't. He was steady at Hillary 70/30. Which means that Trump +400 would have been a +50% ROI.
People are so lame on understanding odds. Post-mortem, people thought that Silver should explain why he had Hillary as Fav. No, he was much closer to actual than the betting mkt.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Purely speaking regarding betting.
In 2016, I really felt that Trump was gonna win. People were ready for it. Millions that voted for Obama switched.
In 2020, I had the feeling they weren't gonna let him win. I didn't make a single wager. Something felt off. He should have won in a landslide. That whole year was weird. A world wide pandemic tends to do that. Sure enough, Trump got millions more votes than any other incumbent in history and Biden who hid in the basement for months, got 12 million more votes than Obama. LOL.
2024 - Trump is going to win the election no matter who runs against him. Unless they kill him.Comment -
I am hearing that Biden will resign on Monday.Comment -
Let's go Brandon!Comment
