NFL week 04- Contrarian Angles

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Going to try this as a weekly thread.

Just looking for a few things:
1) Explicitly state your play. "Fading A, backing B".
2) Quote your live line, at approximate -110 odds.
...I say this for tracking purposes!

*Give a reason to FADE the anti-team.
*Give a reason why you think it may play out differently than most might think.

Thanks!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Results have been better than anyone could possibly expect in 1st 3 weeks:

*I canceled out any plays where there was 1x on each side.

wk01: 5-2 ATS
wk02: 10-0 ATS
wk03: 10-1 ATS. Admittedly, that included four guys nailing the Colts. So, not all independent selections.
YTD: 25-3 ATS

Will continue to try this. Thanks, and Good Luck.

[Machba]

Great thread Goat

[gauchojake]

We will bury the board this week!!

[pologq]

definitely a good idea each week. kudos chuck.

[USCPHILLYGUY]

I’m liking the Raiders -2 this week vs. Denver

You watched that Denver game last night. Enough said.

[jjgold]

I’m liking the Raiders -2 this week vs. Denver

You watched that Denver game last night. Enough said.

every week a new week NFL never ever make a bet off last weeks games

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Great thread Goat

Salud, Mach. Thank you.

Guys are really putting their thinking caps on. Putting that Harvard education to use.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

definitely a good idea each week. kudos chuck.

Salud, Polo. Keep kicking ass, my man.

[USCPHILLYGUY]

every week a new week NFL never ever make a bet off last weeks games

I swear you’re a fuckin killjoy

[edawg]

Don't know if you want O/U but like the U48 in Cleve/Atl game teams combined are 6-0 over and feel number is a little bit inflated because of it. Also Cleveland is really a dink and dunk run the clock type team.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Texans +6...I'm going to fade the Chargers until Herbert shows that he isn't severely compromised. Pro Bowl LT Slater is out for the season with a torn muscle more bad news.

[OldBill]

great thread chuck so far the success is unreal i have one thats pretty solid vs all teams teams that were huge negatives ats the spread then go plus ats have failed in next game just past week Patriots failed at home and it wasnt that huge negative only -9.5 ats and plus 1/2

defense failed them offense went toe to toe with ravens Jets also was negative 8.5 ats then +7.5 got thumped at home vs bengals - 9 ats as home puppy 49ers also was - 15.5 then huge plus 12.5 thtas 28 points neg to pos - 1.5 at denver poof lost by 1 point 11-10

will post my top play sat night

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Texans +6...I'm going to fade the Chargers until Herbert shows that he isn't severely compromised. Pro Bowl LT Slater is out for the season with a torn muscle more bad news.

Jake is booked on HOU +6. Thanks...and Good Luck.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Don't know if you want O/U but like the U48 in Cleve/Atl game teams combined are 6-0 over and feel number is a little bit inflated because of it. Also Cleveland is really a dink and dunk run the clock type team.

Sure, edawg, I'm flexible. Good Luck, hope you keep the winning streak going.

edawg on Clev/Atl UND 48. Very nice logic, too.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

great thread chuck so far the success is unreal i have one thats pretty solid vs all teams teams that were huge negatives ats the spread then go plus ats have failed in next game just past week Patriots failed at home and it wasnt that huge negative only -9.5 ats and plus 1/2

defense failed them offense went toe to toe with ravens Jets also was negative 8.5 ats then +7.5 got thumped at home vs bengals - 9 ats as home puppy 49ers also was - 15.5 then huge plus 12.5 thtas 28 points neg to pos - 1.5 at denver poof lost by 1 point 11-10

will post my top play sat night

Cok-tease.

[TheLock]

Jaguars +6.5 -110
Bengals -3 -130


The 6.5 is a tease to get all the squares on the world beater Eagles. I like this one the best out of the two.

You have to lay a lot of juice on the slow starting Bengals outplaying the “soon-to-be-17-0 Dolphins”

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Jaguars +6.5 -110
Bengals -3 -130


The 6.5 is a tease to get all the squares on the world beater Eagles. I like this one the best out of the two.

You have to lay a lot of juice on the slow starting Bengals outplaying the “soon-to-be-17-0 Dolphins”

Lock, putting you down for Jax +6.5. For record-keeping, I don't want to stray from -110.

Good Luck on the Jags. Hope you continue your hot streak.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Playing: 274 Raiders -2. (Fading: Broncos).

USC stole some of my thunder in post 6. For me, it has to be the Raiders this week.

0-3 Fav, only winless team in the league. Broncos IMHO are a phony 2-1. Broncos' early schedule has been light, one of the weakest SOS in league YTD. They somehow lost to the Seahawks, and I think they're a tomato-can.

Is the Denver HC a professor of mathematics? Sends out the kicker to make longest outdoor sea-level FG in league history. "Cmon, **."

Only thing that worries me (a little) is that the Broncos might be the more physical team. Raiders have yet to score a rushing TD. But that's a league-wide trend.

Looking for the Bronco SOS to show itself here. "The Autumn Wind is a pirate..."

[agendaman]

there are some live dogs this week gents.i like these so far.tennessee plus 3 vs. colts.my main reason is derrick henry will shine here.i also like seattle plus 6 vs lions.metcalfe and lockett.finally buffalo will not lose 2 inarow.plus 3.5 pts.is just fine.josh allen threw 63 times last week for 400 yds and 3tds.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

I’m liking the Raiders -2 this week vs. Denver

You watched that Denver game last night. Enough said.

Playing: 274 Raiders -2. (Fading: Broncos).

USC stole some of my thunder in post 6. For me, it has to be the Raiders this week.

0-3 Fav, only winless team in the league. Broncos IMHO are a phony 2-1. Broncos' early schedule has been light, one of the weakest SOS in league YTD. They somehow lost to the Seahawks, and I think they're a tomato-can.

Is the Denver HC a professor of mathematics? Sends out the kicker to make longest outdoor sea-level FG in league history. "Cmon, **."

Only thing that worries me (a little) is that the Broncos might be the more physical team. Raiders have yet to score a rushing TD. But that's a league-wide trend.

Looking for the Bronco SOS to show itself here. "The Autumn Wind is a pirate..."

Like the Raiders as well in this spot. 0-3 and they are desperate and the Broncos are 2-1 but have a lot of issues.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

there are some live dogs this week gents.i like these so far.tennessee plus 3 vs. colts.my main reason is derrick henry will shine here.i also like seattle plus 6 vs lions.metcalfe and lockett.finally buffalo will not lose 2 inarow.plus 3.5 pts.is just fine.josh allen threw 63 times last week for 400 yds and 3tds.

Salud, agenda, GL. Was reading some of the statline from the Buf/Mia game:

*Hard to believe BUF lost. Mia D was on the field for 90 plays. Allen looks great, rush game took a while to get going.

[pologq]

titans +3. i got no faith in the colts. colts should have lost that game last week and still look crappy to me. the chiefs lost that game more than the colts won.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

titans +3. i got no faith in the colts. colts should have lost that game last week and still look crappy to me. the chiefs lost that game more than the colts won.

Matt Ryan is beyond awful when getting pressured.

[Mr KLC]

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Texans +6...I'm going to fade the Chargers until Herbert shows that he isn't severely compromised. Pro Bowl LT Slater is out for the season with a torn muscle more bad news.

Jake's angle on Charger injuries is a good one. Slater out, and Herbert playing compromised.

I'm turning over a new leaf this year re: Touts. If they say something valuable, I'll give them credit. Teddy Covers pointed out the multiple Charger injuries. He liked the early #. Anyone holding +6 or +6.5 has to feel good, b/c that ticket is going to have good BTCL value.

[jjgold]

The Raiders were in every game they just fell behind too early

[jackpot269]

Sorry guys I was on Pats last week killed our perfect week!
My Raiders have been a huge disappointment, could have won all 3 but found a way to lose! I hope they don't continue that trend hopefully they want! I have a rule that I break every year at some point and multiple times some years
No betting on the Raiders or BAMA they almost always lose or not cover if I do, it's the jacks jinx!
Will check back with a pick later, I need to check on a few numbers first

[jackpot269]

The Raiders were in every game they just fell behind too early

Was beating the Cards by 20 at the half

[comet52]

Detroit clearly better than Seattle but line has moved from -6.5 to -4.5. What is that about?

[Nate rasta]

49ers money line.
Everyone is going to be all over the Rams because 49ers look like crap last week but 49ers play good against the Rams and they should have a bounce back game at home Monday night.lay the juice on the money line

[johnnyvegas13]

49ers money line.
Everyone is going to be all over the Rams because 49ers look like crap last week but 49ers play good against the Rams and they should have a bounce back game at home Monday night.lay the juice on the money line

Trent Williams our big tho

[CappinTerp]

Don't bet the NFL much but good idea here...I like betting contrarian games...will bet a few games here.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Detroit clearly better than Seattle but line has moved from -6.5 to -4.5. What is that about?

I don't follow injuries like I used to. Was listening to my guy Gridiron Blitz (a Lion fan):

S Walker out
RB Swift ??

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Don't bet the NFL much but good idea here...I like betting contrarian games...will bet a few games here.

GL, Terp. Guys in here are trying. So far so good (YTD).