Wnba 2021

**KVB** · 06-12-21, 03:46 PM

Hey Morino next game in just over 3 hours.

You see that line jump this morning?

Did you get double digits? There was value up there and I wouldn't be surprised if this line goes from 9 to 8.5 and/or lower.

That was a huge reaction and there's boung to be some pullback to bring it back down.

**thomorino** · 06-13-21, 11:03 AM

Sun +4.5

**thomorino** · 06-13-21, 11:17 AM

I bet this game 2 hours ago and see now the line has moved to 5, I will of course grade the bet at the line I posted the bet at

**carolinakid** · 06-13-21, 11:36 AM

the best play in that game imo is the under

**thomorino** · 06-13-21, 11:52 AM

Originally posted by carolinakid

the best play in that game imo is the under

Seattle plays fast and they don’t have any interior defense with Howard gone, I’m not betting unders in Seattle games

**lonegambler23** · 06-13-21, 11:55 AM

Originally posted by thomorino

Seattle plays fast and they don’t have any interior defense with Howard gone, I’m not betting unders in Seattle games

so this is going way under

**KVB** · 06-13-21, 11:55 AM

Originally posted by thomorino

Sun +4.5

Faders take the +4.5 (+100) here and Morino's play will be at -110.

Because I am a nice guy.

Good Luck.

**KVB** · 06-13-21, 11:58 AM

Originally posted by thomorino

I bet this game 2 hours ago and see now the line has moved to 5, I will of course grade the bet at the line I posted the bet at

Tell it to someone who cares you lie all the time about your bets, that's why I was assigned this thread.

Because of that you are paranoid and make posts like this one I quoted.

**KVB** · 06-13-21, 12:00 PM

Here the numbers from an actual capper, me.

These are simple early season numbers still and I would expect many to come to the near exact same conclusions as my stacking forecast. The public gauge not so much as it is beyond the scope of everyone here.

		Stacking		Public
		Percentages		Guage

13-Jun	SEA	80		78
	CON	80		80

	WAS	84	85	86
	ATL	81		83

	NY	79		77
	PHO	85		85

	DAL	77	78	82
	LV	88	89	90

**thomorino** · 06-13-21, 12:50 PM

Originally posted by lonegambler23

so this is going way under

Originally posted by KVB

Faders take the +4.5 (+100) here and Morino's play will be at -110.

Because I am a nice guy.

Good Luck.

Originally posted by KVB

Tell it to someone who cares you lie all the time about your bets, that's why I was assigned this thread.

Because of that you are paranoid and make posts like this one I quoted.

Originally posted by KVB

Here the numbers from an actual capper, me.

These are simple early season numbers still and I would expect many to come to the near exact same conclusions as my stacking forecast. The public gauge not so much as it is beyond the scope of everyone here.

		Stacking		Public
		Percentages		Guage

13-Jun	SEA	80		78
	CON	80		80

	WAS	84	85	86
	ATL	81		83

	NY	79		77
	PHO	85		85

	DAL	77	78	82
	LV	88	89	90

Bipolar boy is angry today I see.

Dumb shits.

**carolinakid** · 06-13-21, 01:54 PM

1st half went under the 78 so far

**thomorino** · 06-13-21, 01:55 PM

Originally posted by carolinakid

1st half went under the 78 so far

Yeah the sun are down a key player.

**KVB** · 06-13-21, 02:00 PM

Originally posted by carolinakid

1st half went under the 78 so far

Sea opening the early can of whoop ass too. It's up to them what happens from here.

**Buckandadime** · 06-13-21, 03:01 PM

Originally posted by thomorino

Sun +4.5

Originally posted by thomorino

Yeah the sun are down a key player.

**KVB** · 06-13-21, 03:03 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Faders take the +4.5 (+100) here and Morino's play will be at -110.

Because I am a nice guy.

Good Luck.

This is a typo, obviously.

Faders will get -4.5 (-107)

My bad, y'all.

**thomorino** · 06-13-21, 10:31 PM

Originally posted by Buckandadime

You are a dumb shit

**thomorino** · 06-13-21, 10:32 PM

1-1

+.7 units

**KVB** · 06-15-21, 12:10 PM

Again a basic forecast with the stacking percentages forecast and I would suspect many others to come to very similar if not the same numbers.

The public gauge is a different story.

		Stacking		Public
		Percentages		Guage

15-Jun	SEA	91		91
	IND	71	72	77

	CHI	79		78
	MIN	80		84

	NY	75		77
	LV	92		91

I'd like to see a modicum of intelligence, as well as interest from some at SBR here. There are many things I can teach and elemtary handicapping using the WNBA is a great thing to start for those who want to learn.

3 games today anyone watching these markets? Volume from my contacts are all very light, across the spectrum of markets.

**KVB** · 06-15-21, 05:19 PM

The bettors can not get enough of Seattle here and that line has grown to 15.5.

Notice the 20 point stacking forcast and the 14 point public gauge. That early line of -12 at BOL had no chance of holding.

Books have been happily taking the bets on Seattle but they have shown us movement.

Seattle a very popular bet tonight, for a WNBA game.

The betting public is starting to like the amount of data being accumulated and sharper money will be entering the picture here. I, for one, welcome it. It also might represent the Faders in this thread coming back and Morono will get outpaced by actual bettors.

**jjgold** · 06-15-21, 05:22 PM

I don’t know what does the statistics are on a big favorite 10 or more in the WNBA

**KVB** · 06-15-21, 08:41 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

I don’t know what does the statistics are on a big favorite 10 or more in the WNBA

Static stats like that are only so useful, we will learn in this thread about weighting more recent time periods differently, I think.

Anyway, it's not good, Gold. The favorites win those about 44.5 % of the time over about 15 years of data including the Seattle cover tonight.

But there was a recent bad year of that, so to speak, and we really could be seeing the market shift. I do expect the big favorites to cover more this year and expect them to be profitable by overall being closer to even instead of sharply biased toward the underdog. The profit comes in trading. There are multi-decade factors at play here Gold.

Could be a market bottom as the books are less apt to make the line so big in the face of the larger Forecasts. In fact, for years, the larger spread forecasts were notoriously terrible when predicitng the favorite.

There have been periods of drastic losses followed by a more sideways vig grind for the bettor who's bet the big favorites to cover over the last couple of decades.

Here's what it's looked like over the past 10 years for spreads of -10 or more, covering 318 plays....

**KVB** · 06-16-21, 11:07 AM

The two big favorites covered yesterday.

**KVB** · 06-16-21, 12:39 PM

We are still in a relatively simple data crunching phase for any season. The stacking forecast is still failry basic and I would expect many others to come to the same or similar numbers.

Either way, LA is getting more credit in forecasting than the line shows.

		Stacking		Public
		Percentages		Guage

16-Jun	PHO	80		75
	LA	79	80	78

**KVB** · 06-17-21, 01:56 PM

Same story, same level of sophistication...

		Stacking	Public
		Percentages	Guage

17-Jun	ATL	82	81
	WAS	84	87

	SEA	89	90
	IND	71	75

	MIN	83	81
	DAL	81	86

	CON	76	79
	CHI	83	75

	NY	74	78
	LV	91	92

**KVB** · 06-18-21, 02:21 PM

Same story, but getting sharper here.

		Stacking	Public
		Percentages	Guage

18-Jun	PHO	80	76
	LA	81	79

Public likes LA here, I'm actually thinking of countering the line move with PHO on the spread.

It's on my radar.

Here's my record so far in the thread...

	Date	Play	1 Unit
			per bet

665	24-May	DAL +1.5 (-112)	-1
		NY +1.5 (-115) LIVE	0.87
652	25-May	CON/SEA UNDER 162.5 (-113)	-1
662	28-May	MIN/SEA UNDER 166.5 (-107)	0.93

		Total	-0.2

As everyone knows, I'm a grinder.

I'm just waiting for the market to settle a little bit then we'll see about running a WNBA campaign.

**asiagambler** · 06-19-21, 10:54 AM

Does anyone have any opinion on Connecticut Sun (+7.5) @ Chicago Sky ?

Mainly does Connecticut have any chances to win ?

Thank you

**KVB** · 06-19-21, 12:56 PM

Originally posted by asiagambler

Does anyone have any opinion on Connecticut Sun (+7.5) @ Chicago Sky ?

Mainly does Connecticut have any chances to win ?

Thank you

I don't really like Con to win that game. In fact I kind of like CHI to cover there, but it's no bet for me.

**KVB** · 06-19-21, 12:57 PM

Smae story here with the numbers, many should be able to come to the Stacking Forecast conclusions, they aren't very complex right now, I would expect others to have the same or similar numbers.

		Stacking	Public
		Percentages	Guage

19-Jun	CON	74	79
	CHI	84	76

	IND	78	78
	WASH	86	88

	MIN	84	82
	DAL	80	86

**KVB** · 06-19-21, 01:03 PM

Originally posted by asiagambler

Does anyone have any opinion on Connecticut Sun (+7.5) @ Chicago Sky ?

Mainly does Connecticut have any chances to win ?

Thank you

Notice I have the public gauge with Connecticut winning but the stacking forecast has Chicago.

I think the public gauge and sentiment is wrong here.

I think.

**randyrohm** · 06-19-21, 08:40 PM

What are the best sportsbooks to use that post lines early and take 1st quarter and 1st half totals before they are ironed out? I didnt know this thread was here. I may go back and read it all....

**thomorino** · 06-19-21, 08:57 PM

Originally posted by asiagambler

Does anyone have any opinion on Connecticut Sun (+7.5) @ Chicago Sky ?

Mainly does Connecticut have any chances to win ?

Thank you

The Sun have been complete trash without Jones, Inwouldnt bet gem or bet over in Sun games Jones isn’t playing, they can’t score

**KVB** · 06-19-21, 09:44 PM

Originally posted by asiagambler

Does anyone have any opinion on Connecticut Sun (+7.5) @ Chicago Sky ?

Mainly does Connecticut have any chances to win ?

Thank you

Originally posted by KVB

I don't really like Con to win that game. In fact I kind of like CHI to cover there, but it's no bet for me.

Originally posted by KVB

Notice I have the public gauge with Connecticut winning but the stacking forecast has Chicago.

I think the public gauge and sentiment is wrong here.

I think.

		Stacking	Public
		Percentages	Guage

19-Jun	CON	74	79
	CHI	84	76

Chicago with the 10 point win ended making the opinion of the stacking forecast correct here over the public gauge.

**KVB** · 06-19-21, 10:26 PM

To be fair, the opposite happend when Dallas beat Minn by 18 points.

MIN		84		82
DAL		80		86

**KVB** · 06-20-21, 12:20 PM

Here are the numbers...

		Stacking	Public
		Percentages	Guage

20-Jun	NY	77	75
	LA	84	82

Both Forecasts have a 7 point LA win and from the market perspective it seems the bettors in general, what few there are, have put more pressure on the NY moneyline than anything else and that has caused the market to drop.

What do the bettor's know?

**KVB** · 06-20-21, 12:53 PM

I recognize the risk here with two units on one team but both qualify for me here and I picked up...

612		20-Jun	LA -2.5 (-109)
612			LA -150

Good Luck.

HAWT!!!!