2020 Election. The State by State Odds and MATH

[jt315]

This is what no doubt had his handler’s ripping the retard from his basement .

[pavyracer]

• [*=left]Sep. 5: Trump’s momentum has been staunched. His odds went from -117 to -116. Biden improved from -106 to -109.
  
  [*=left]Aug. 31: Trump’s uptick continued and he is now favored over Biden (-117 to -106, on average)
  
  [*=left]Aug. 28: The candidates are now almost dead-even. Biden is -115 on average. Trump is -110.

[Judge Crater]

Keep going

[JohnGalt2341]

That's why the odds to win pa were+400 three weeks ago and are now+160 right?

In post #1 on June 26th Biden was -265 in PA and now he's -200. So yeah, it's changed but I don't remember seeing anything as dramatic as your post above. Maybe I missed it when this happened. But as far I could tell, PA has remained fairly steady for the last 4 months or so.

[RoyBacon]

@NateSilver538
17hIf the polls aren't tightening since the debate—and with 62 million people having voted—we're sort of getting to the point where the only way Trump can win is with a major polling error, bigger than in 2016 (or if the election is stolen somehow).


@NateSilver538Actually Trump's odds (12%) are quite close to the chances of catching an inside straight (9%), low but still well within the realm of normal things you see in any poker session, and not the much less likely thing you are describing (0.3%).(Also, who plays draw poker anymore?)

Maybe those are his numbers if the game was played today. This is super complex and that actual MOE is realistically 5%+/-.

That takes you from drawing for an inside straight to hitting any pair on the river.

If you stumble back on 2016 the same people said the exact same thing looking at almost the exact same data. Kind of spooky.

[jt315]

Our new @trafalgar_group #2020Election#BattlegroundState#PApoll conducted Oct 24-25 shows undecided shrinking and a narrow Trump lead for the first time:

48.4% @realDonaldTrump


47.6% @JoeBiden


2.2% @Jorgensen4POTUS


0.7% Other

1.0% Und. See Report: https://thetrafalgargroup.org/news/pa-pres-102520/

[RudyRuetigger]

In Florida, 1,508,165 voters who didn't cast a ballot in 2016 have already voted in the 2020 general election.Registered Dems have an 11.7% advantage among these surge voters, almost triple their 4.3% lead with those early voters who did vote in '16.

[pavyracer]

[Mike Huntertz]

In post #1 on June 26th Biden was -265 in PA and now he's -200. So yeah, it's changed but I don't remember seeing anything as dramatic as your post above. Maybe I missed it when this happened. But as far I could tell, PA has remained fairly steady for the last 4 months or so.

I've been watching 538 for a while and PA has always been 2-7% Biden. If I saw(which I didn't) +400 I would have jumped on Trump.
Not saying some obscure book didn't put it out, but not 5D, Pinnacle, BetChris.
That would be a live dog of which I would have already hedged.

[Judge Crater]

This is the pollster who Robocalls only land lines, they also ask the responders how their neighbors are voting.

To their credit, they alone hit in Michigan and PA in 2016 ( also predicted Trump would win the popular vote )
In the 2018 midterms, they got destroyed in almost all their predictions. They predicted the Republican's would pick up house seats (they lost 41 seats)

The poll below has Trump winning 49.9% of the 18-24 vote.

Our new @trafalgar_group #2020Election#BattlegroundState#PApoll conducted Oct 24-25 shows undecided shrinking and a narrow Trump lead for the first time:

48.4% @realDonaldTrump


47.6% @JoeBiden


2.2% @Jorgensen4POTUS


0.7% Other

1.0% Und. See Report: https://thetrafalgargroup.org/news/pa-pres-102520/

[vitterd]

Our new @trafalgar_group #2020Election#BattlegroundState#PApoll conducted Oct 24-25 shows undecided shrinking and a narrow Trump lead for the first time:

48.4% @realDonaldTrump


47.6% @JoeBiden


2.2% @Jorgensen4POTUS


0.7% Other

1.0% Und. See Report: https://thetrafalgargroup.org/news/pa-pres-102520/

Lmao

[jt315]

Lmao

Feel free to post those polls showing Biden with double PA leads .

Guess who had to get ripped from his basement and had to defend himself after his disastrous debate on Thursday ?

But by all means . Please take the air out of the ball and try to run out the clock.

[vitterd]

Feel free to post those polls showing Biden with double PA leads .

Guess who had to get ripped from his basement and had to defend himself after his disastrous debate on Thursday ?

But by all means . Please take the air out of the ball and try to run out the clock.

You find the one fake poll that has trump up one point. Perhaps that cuck with the bow tie might wanna look at the numbers and stop making shit up. He will disappear just like you after Tuesday. The beating is underway.

Leave and never come back!!

[jt315]

You find the one fake poll that has trump up one point. Perhaps that cuck with the bow tie might wanna look at the numbers and stop making shit up. He will disappear just like you after Tuesday. The beating is underway.

Leave and never come back!!

You don’t have any balls to post your Biden huge PA lead polls pee squatter .

The beast told Joe yesterday you better get your ass out of this basement and to Pa and start ‘splaining yo self !

[vitterd]

You don’t have any balls to post your Biden huge PA lead polls pee squatter .

The beast told Joe yesterday you better get your ass out of this basement and to Pa and start ‘splaining yo self !

I posted the early numbers. It’s a beating. It’s a massive beating!! I posted the early voting numbers. They are bigger than the polls!

[burdman]

The complete lack of self awareness from the Trump cult is astonishing.

Might be the smartest person on SBR. A bunch of racist trumpers that think they know everything couldn’t be more wrong over and over

[RudyRuetigger]

Leave and never come back!!

i can actually picture you saying that


i bet you stomped your foot and crossed your arms too







what a fukkin soyboy

[burdman]

i can actually picture you saying that


i bet you stomped your foot and crossed your arms too







what a fukkin soyboy

Nobody is laughing but you

[vitterd]

i can actually picture you saying that


i bet you stomped your foot and crossed your arms too







what a fukkin soyboy

You’re a drunk fool and Id pound your empty melon.

[ByeShea]

Biggest difference between 2016 and today is that Hillary, while her rallies were sparsely attended and few and far between, wasn't confined to her basement most of the last month of the election.

Somehow it's different now.... riiiiiighhhhtt.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">RCP battleground poll average:<br><br>𝗢𝗰𝘁. 𝟮𝟵, 𝟮𝟬𝟭𝟲<br>• Florida: (Tied)<br>• Pennsylvania: Clinton +5.6<br>• Michigan: +7<br>• Wisc: +6.2<br>• NC: +3.2<br><br>𝗧𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆<br>• Florida: Biden +1.2<br>• Pennsylvania: +5.1<br>• Michigan: +7.8<br>• Wisc: +4.6<br>• NC: +1.5<br><br>👉🏻 <a href="https://t.co/ZBRpAvXwZT">https://t.co/ZBRpAvXwZT</a> <a href="https://t.co/GZmTCAxlSI">https://t.co/GZmTCAxlSI</a></p>&mdash; Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) <a href="https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1320172303984934915?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >October 25, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[RudyRuetigger]

You’re a drunk fool and Id pound your empty melon.

Posts: 40,093



show me one useful one

[vitterd]

Biggest difference between 2016 and today is that Hillary, while her rallies were sparsely attended and few and far between, wasn't confined to her basement most of the last month of the election.

Somehow it's different now.... riiiiiighhhhtt.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">RCP battleground poll average:<br><br>𝗢𝗰𝘁. 𝟮𝟵, 𝟮𝟬𝟭𝟲<br>• Florida: (Tied)<br>• Pennsylvania: Clinton +5.6<br>• Michigan: +7<br>• Wisc: +6.2<br>• NC: +3.2<br><br>𝗧𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆<br>• Florida: Biden +1.2<br>• Pennsylvania: +5.1<br>• Michigan: +7.8<br>• Wisc: +4.6<br>• NC: +1.5<br><br>👉🏻 <a rel="nofollow" href="https://t.co/ZBRpAvXwZT">https://t.co/ZBRpAvXwZT</a> <a rel="nofollow" href="https://t.co/GZmTCAxlSI">https://t.co/GZmTCAxlSI</a></p>&mdash; Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) <a rel="nofollow" href="https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1320172303984934915?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >October 25, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

This is why you are always wrong. 2016 was a referendum on Hillary, 2020 is a referendum on trump. This is nothing like 2016. Biden lead has been stable. He hits 50 percent in a number of battleground, trump doesn’t hit 50 in any. You have no idea what you’re in for next week.

[vitterd]

Posts: 40,093



show me one useful one

The one you just quoted.

[RudyRuetigger]

The one you just quoted.

you democrats are so fukkin clueless


i feel bad for you


i bet you are 60 year old hippy, 140lb soaking wet with no guns


yet want to defund the police


best of luck bro


im not going to lie, a part of me wants biden to win just to see you guys get absolutely fukked over

[KVB]

LMAO, keep watching those lines fellas.

A lot of betting with your heart and political opinions in here. That’s like being a sports fan and trying to meaningfully gamble on your team.

[RudyRuetigger]

LMAO, keep watching those lines fellas.

A lot of betting with your heart and political opinions in here. That’s like being a sports fan and trying to meaningfully gamble on your team.

Lines dont matter


why?


Because they dont allow state parlays

this is a low level prop

[Judge Crater]

“Political malpractice”: Veteran GOP pollster Frank Luntz calls the Donald Trump re-election effort the "worst campaign I’ve ever seen."


If you can post something from someone not being paid by the GOP about Trump being ahead or tied, that's information we could use.

Biggest difference between 2016 and today is that Hillary, while her rallies were sparsely attended and few and far between, wasn't confined to her basement most of the last month of the election.

Somehow it's different now.... riiiiiighhhhtt.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">RCP battleground poll average:<br><br>헢헰혁. ퟮퟵ, ퟮퟬퟭퟲ<br>• Florida: (Tied)<br>• Pennsylvania: Clinton +5.6<br>• Michigan: +7<br>• Wisc: +6.2<br>• NC: +3.2<br><br>헧헼헱헮혆<br>• Florida: Biden +1.2<br>• Pennsylvania: +5.1<br>• Michigan: +7.8<br>• Wisc: +4.6<br>• NC: +1.5<br><br> <a rel="nofollow" href="https://t.co/ZBRpAvXwZT">https://t.co/ZBRpAvXwZT</a> <a rel="nofollow" href="https://t.co/GZmTCAxlSI">https://t.co/GZmTCAxlSI</a></p>&mdash; Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) <a rel="nofollow" href="https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1320172303984934915?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >October 25, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[RudyRuetigger]

Quit quoting dumbasses...here was Frank Luntz on election night 2016:


In case I wasn't clear enough from my previous tweets:Hillary Clinton will be the next President of the United States. #ElectionNight





6:43 PM · Nov 8, 2016 from Manhattan, NY·Twitter for iPhone


Frank Luntz



@FrankLuntz

[JohnGalt2341]

Biggest difference between 2016 and today is that Hillary, while her rallies were sparsely attended and few and far between, wasn't confined to her basement most of the last month of the election.

Somehow it's different now.... riiiiiighhhhtt.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">RCP battleground poll average:<br><br>헢헰혁. ퟮퟵ, ퟮퟬퟭퟲ<br>• Florida: (Tied)<br>• Pennsylvania: Clinton +5.6<br>• Michigan: +7<br>• Wisc: +6.2<br>• NC: +3.2<br><br>헧헼헱헮혆<br>• Florida: Biden +1.2<br>• Pennsylvania: +5.1<br>• Michigan: +7.8<br>• Wisc: +4.6<br>• NC: +1.5<br><br> <a rel="nofollow" href="https://t.co/ZBRpAvXwZT">https://t.co/ZBRpAvXwZT</a> <a rel="nofollow" href="https://t.co/GZmTCAxlSI">https://t.co/GZmTCAxlSI</a></p>&mdash; Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) <a rel="nofollow" href="https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1320172303984934915?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >October 25, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Look at the voter turnout prices from BetOnline below.

Voter Turnout in the U.S Presidential Election

01:00 PM

Over 149.5 million voters

-225

Under 149.5 million voters

+160

Voter Turnout in the U.S. Presidential Election

01:00 PM

Over 60.5 %

-150

Under 60.5 %

+110

Does that look the same or different than 2016?

Here's a link for you to look it up.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout_in_the_United_States_presidential_elections

Scroll down to "Turnout Statistics" in the link above. Do you see a difference between 2020 and 2016?

[RudyRuetigger]

Look at the voter turnout prices from BetOnline below.

Voter Turnout in the U.S Presidential Election

01:00 PM

Over 149.5 million voters

-225

Under 149.5 million voters

+160

Voter Turnout in the U.S. Presidential Election

01:00 PM

Over 60.5 %

-150

Under 60.5 %

+110

Does that look the same or different than 2016?

Here's a link for you to look it up.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout_in_the_United_States_presidential_elections

Scroll down to "Turnout Statistics" in the link above. Do you see a difference between 2020 and 2016?

Neither of those matter for the results Galt


Democrat parts of Florida and Arizona are not going well with turnout for dems

[Judge Crater]

I do not think Biden or the Democrats is counting on winning Florida, hence the lack of campaigning there.

Follow the money. Where are the campaigns spending resources?

[JohnGalt2341]

Neither of those matter for the results Galt


Democrat parts of Florida and Arizona are not going well with turnout for dems

First off, I want to congratulate you for leaving a post in this thread without insulting someone. I know how hard it is for you to not act like a child in every single one of your posts. Bravo!

My feeling is, the voter turnout will be MUCH higher than 2016. And this is going to hurt Trump, not help him.

I guess we'll see in the days and weeks to come.

[DwightShrute]

First off, I want to congratulate you for leaving a post in this thread without insulting someone. I know how hard it is for you to not act like a child in every single one of your posts. Bravo!

My feeling is, the voter turnout will be MUCH higher than 2016. And this is going to hurt Trump, not help him.

I guess we'll see in the days and weeks to come.

what makes you think that?

[burdman]

I do not think Biden or the Democrats is counting on winning Florida, hence the lack of campaigning there.

Follow the money. Where are the campaigns spending resources?

Obama was just in Florida with a massive rally just for icing on the cake.

if by some miracle trump wins, people are gonna wish he wouldn’t starting that night

[RudyRuetigger]

Obama was just in Florida with a massive rally just for icing on the cake.

if by some miracle trump wins, people are gonna wish he wouldn’t starting that night

yea, bro


MASSIVE