2020 Election. The State by State Odds and MATH

[thomorino]

Maybe, we will see.

I do not trust Robocall polls because they are not allowed to call cell phones, only land lines. These land line owners tend to be much older and own their homes.

https://www.marketingcharts.com/demo...nd-gen-x-77051

They also vote much more, old people vote at far higher rates than younger people.

[Kermit]

Trump hit 3 cities in Pa today. If he wins Pa, he wins the election.

Meanwhile in Philly(where most of the Biden votes come from) they just recorded their 400th murder today. That is the most murders in the city since 2006. And with over 2 months to go, they'll more than likely break even more records this year.

[CWD]

[beerman2619]

Trump wins this election easy. Hunter will take care of his daddy after this election. Smoke crack with his pops and change his depends. Maybe both will look at child porn on his laptop. Think his Wife Jill will go bang some younger dudes and divorce Joe.

[RoyBacon]

poll conducted by InsiderAdvantage for the Center for American Greatness of 400 likely voters in Pennsylvania shows Donald Trump now leading in the state. The poll was conducted the evening of October 25 by both IVR and live cell phone interviews. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent and is weighted for age, race, gender, and political affiliation. The results:
Donald Trump: 48.4%
Joe Biden: 45.5 %
Jo Jorgensen: 3 %
Undecided: 3 %

Within margin of error.

All three of the states Trump won before are too close to call; WI, MI and PA. I think he wins WI easily.

[chico2663]

that oil comment cost biden penn. the leading search on google in penn is can i change my vote.

[vitterd]

poll conducted by InsiderAdvantage for the Center for American Greatness of 400 likely voters in Pennsylvania shows Donald Trump now leading in the state. The poll was conducted the evening of October 25 by both IVR and live cell phone interviews. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent and is weighted for age, race, gender, and political affiliation. The results:
Donald Trump: 48.4%
Joe Biden: 45.5 %
Jo Jorgensen: 3 %
Undecided: 3 %

Within margin of error.

All three of the states Trump won before are too close to call; WI, MI and PA. I think he wins WI easily.

Maybe the worst pollster there is.

[vitterd]

Trump hit 3 cities in Pa today. If he wins Pa, he wins the election.

Meanwhile in Philly(where most of the Biden votes come from) they just recorded their 400th murder today. That is the most murders in the city since 2006. And with over 2 months to go, they'll more than likely break even more records this year.

The early vote is so overwhelming dem.

[rkelly110]

Trump hit 3 cities in Pa today. If he wins Pa, he wins the election.

Meanwhile in Philly(where most of the Biden votes come from) they just recorded their 400th murder today. That is the most murders in the city since 2006. And with over 2 months to go, they'll more than likely break even more records this year.

How many did you go to? Asking for a friend so as to stay away from you for 14 days.......

[lakerboy]

The early vote is so overwhelming dem.

That's why the odds to win pa were+400 three weeks ago and are now+160 right?

[RoyBacon]

How many did you go to? Asking for a friend so as to stay away from you for 14 days.......

LMAO tards and their covid. Dude it ain't The Plague. I know an overweight 74 year old who got over it in a couple of days.

[SimpleJack]

LMAO tards and their covid. Dude it ain't The Plague. I know an overweight 74 year old who got over it in a couple of days.

Your wife probably has good genes. Death sentence for some.

[Kermit]

How many did you go to? Asking for a friend so as to stay away from you for 14 days.......

He had one here just 2 weeks ago. I didn't go. I'm not into camping out all day for things like that.

[Mike Huntertz]

That's why the odds to win pa were+400 three weeks ago and are now+160 right?

Where did you get +400 three weeks ago?

[vitterd]

That's why the odds to win pa were+400 three weeks ago and are now+160 right?

This could not be more false

[pavyracer]

Where did you get +400 three weeks ago?

In his dreams. Trump was actually about even with Biden in PA in September.

[chico2663]

LMAO tards and their covid. Dude it ain't The Plague. I know an overweight 74 year old who got over it in a couple of days.

I have lost 5 family members dip shit.

[ByeShea]

In his dreams. Trump was actually about even with Biden in PA in September.

Your first mistake was believing polls. Data suggests Biden not doing particularly well in any swing state (and take away the fictitious polls, can you really be surprised?)

Data shows Trump meanwhile winning FL & AZ & NC ... and in MI it looks like he's flipping Oakland County, 2nd biggest in the state. GOP turnout there off the charts, just ask Michael Moore.

Time for that last minute push, Joe!




Joe? Where's Joe?



Anyone seen Hunter?

[RoyBacon]

I have lost 5 family members dip shit.

I'm throwing the BS flag on that one. Link me to their orbits. Probably just told you they died so they get the fvvk away from your weird bean-vomit smelling azz. Just one theory.

[vitterd]

Your first mistake was believing polls. Data suggests Biden not doing particularly well in any swing state (and take away the fictitious polls, can you really be surprised?)

Data shows Trump meanwhile winning FL & AZ & NC ... and in MI it looks like he's flipping Oakland County, 2nd biggest in the state. GOP turnout there off the charts, just ask Michael Moore.

Time for that last minute push, Joe!




Joe? Where's Joe?



Anyone seen Hunter?

This is completely false. I mean, absolutely the opposite is happening.

[Mike Huntertz]

Your first mistake was believing polls. Data suggests Biden not doing particularly well in any swing state (and take away the fictitious polls, can you really be surprised?)

Data shows Trump meanwhile winning FL & AZ & NC ... and in MI it looks like he's flipping Oakland County, 2nd biggest in the state. GOP turnout there off the charts, just ask Michael Moore.

Time for that last minute push, Joe!




Joe? Where's Joe?



Anyone seen Hunter?

Please post the data.

[Judge Crater]

Trump gains overnight

Betfair
Biden -200
Trump +198

Trump was at +192 earlier, seems to be grinding back up.

I think this maybe was caused by the Philadelphia riots overnight. I didn't see anything else in the news to cause a ten cent drop.

[vitterd]

Please post the data.

He has none. It’s all nonsense and lies. ByeShea follows some guy on twitter named Larry and listens to him. The guy has been wrong about every race he’s ever predicted.

[lakerboy]

In his dreams. Trump was actually about even with Biden in PA in September.

He was +400 in Vegas on oct 4

These were odds on oct 16



You think he was even then went to+250? Lol paver.

He is +160 today

[vitterd]

Action network? Wtf?

[Judge Crater]

From Dave Wasserman of non-partisan Cook Political Report's Twitter feed today

Let's see...what should we put more faith in?

1) A molehill of state-level online polls from attention-seeking, off-brand pollsters? Or...

2) A mountain of district-level polls from established pollsters tasked w/ helping their parties make smart resource allocation decisions

[lakerboy]

Action network? Wtf?

Bottom line odds have dropped on trump

[RoyBacon]

From Dave Wasserman of non-partisan Cook Political Report's Twitter feed today

Let's see...what should we put more faith in?

1) A molehill of state-level online polls from attention-seeking, off-brand pollsters? Or...

2) A mountain of district-level polls from established pollsters tasked w/ helping their parties make smart resource allocation decisions

Like 2016? Yea, let's be dumb azzes and make the same mistake twice. LOL

I agree Trump is losing and I obviously agree with the "markets". But everyone including the markets KNOW there is a Trump under count to factor in. The only question is how much is it?

[vitterd]

Bottom line odds have dropped on trump

Bet trump then. Let me know how that works out. I posted the early pa voting numbers last night.

[vitterd]

Pa early voting 1.4 million

71 dems
20 Repubs
9 others

New voters who are voting for first time

66 Dems
17 repub
17 other

I mean. Just take a look

[lakerboy]

Bet trump then. Let me know how that works out. I posted the early pa voting numbers last night.

I took it last week+190. I don't need to let you know how it works out. You will find out soon.

[vitterd]

I took it last week+190. I don't need to let you know how it works out. You will find out soon.

I already know but I can’t wait to see all the disappearing acts next week.

[Judge Crater]

absolutely correct, the big electoral sites ( 538, Larry Sabato, Cook Report, etc.) all put odds of Trump much longer than the betting markets. I am not sure there is value for trump in the betting markets as they are already discounted.

Like 2016? Yea, let's be dumb azzes and make the same mistake twice. LOL

I agree Trump is losing and I obviously agree with the "markets". But everyone including the markets KNOW there is a Trump under count to factor in. The only question is how much is it?

[RoyBacon]

absolutely correct, the big electoral sites ( 538, Larry Sabato, Cook Report, etc.) all put odds of Trump much longer than the betting markets. I am not sure there is value for trump in the betting markets as they are already discounted.

The most damning stats I've seen is the already voted polls. Trump is down 8ish points in the midwest. Even if you take out the dems over sample and massage the MOE you come up with too big of a hill to take on election day.

Close? Yes. Value? As a famous SBR gambler once said; there ain't much value in losing.

[Judge Crater]

@NateSilver538
17hIf the polls aren't tightening since the debate—and with 62 million people having voted—we're sort of getting to the point where the only way Trump can win is with a major polling error, bigger than in 2016 (or if the election is stolen somehow).


@NateSilver538Actually Trump's odds (12%) are quite close to the chances of catching an inside straight (9%), low but still well within the realm of normal things you see in any poker session, and not the much less likely thing you are describing (0.3%).(Also, who plays draw poker anymore?)

The most damning stats I've seen is the already voted polls. Trump is down 8ish points in the midwest. Even if you take out the dems over sample and massage the MOE you come up with too big of a hill to take on election day.

Close? Yes. Value? As a famous SBR gambler once said; there ain't much value in losing.