Let’s talk ncaaFB week 13!

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  • CappinTerp
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 11-26-09
    • 9650

    #176
    Hey banker , whats up ? Was looking at this OSU/PSU game. This line does look a little too high. And the high price has little to do with Youngs return. IMO the PSU defensive secondary is it's weak link. And the OSU passing attack will have a field day.....the over on this game is worth a look !....................................... ....BOL
    Comment
    • Buckandadime
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 04-21-15
      • 8847

      #177
      Originally posted by 2daBank
      Jfc. Ya’ll realize navy has won 16 straight on senior day? Sounds like something mr Nash should have told us!!

      Please don’t be like the dickhead who told me that stuff didn’t matter when I said I was pounding pats off a loss and bye last week. I agree a lot of trends are stupid, some are not and while they don’t guarantee anything they certainly make for some strong bets!!
      Don't know the record but it's Senior Day at Tulsa..
      Montgomery's first recruitment class is graduating..
      2 players that lead the conference in tackles and interceptions are both seniors...
      Food for thought..
      Comment
      • asiagambler
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 07-23-17
        • 6827

        #178
        Looks like windy conditions in Wyoming tonight. May not bode well for CSU
        Comment
        • asiagambler
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 07-23-17
          • 6827

          #179
          Rutgers +1041

          Small bet. I think Michigan State is finished. Lost 5 in a row to mostly good teams but they've struggled to put away bad teams too. Let Indiana come back to tie. Let Illinois come back from 25 down and lost outright

          Losing their best defensive player hurts and they are dealing with lots of injuries too. Rutgers can run the ball a little and their QB has improved from horrific to just below average

          Rutgers playing hard for interim coach and players should be excited to get Greg Schiano back. Senior day for them as well

          Michigan State having trouble running the ball and their QB has been underwhelming. If Rutgers can get some turnover luck, I think this has a chance
          Comment
          • Tanko
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 09-19-09
            • 5141

            #180
            Originally posted by asiagambler
            Looks like windy conditions in Wyoming tonight. May not bode well for CSU

            Idk... I'm seeing 8 mph winds tonight is not too bad. Source: http://www.donbest.com/ncaaf/weather/
            AG, you seeiing something different?

            Also, I vaguely remember reading about someone doing an analysis on how wind impacts game performance. The trend I thought indicated significant impact on passing games starts once you go above 12-13 mph. They had used data over years. Wish I'd kept the reference. I've kind of used that as a reference point over the years for "passing" team plays.
            Comment
            • Tanko
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 09-19-09
              • 5141

              #181
              Hawaii/SD St Projected weather 18 mph winds. Now that is going to impact the passing game.

              I haven't looked at the layout of the Hawaii stadium to see how it would play out "on the field". I think its open on the ends.?.?
              Some stadiums are not domes but enclosed enough, wind may not be as big an impact.
              Comment
              • U2.5
                SBR MVP
                • 02-21-14
                • 1953

                #182
                Originally posted by Tanko
                Hawaii/SD St Projected weather 18 mph winds. Now that is going to impact the passing game.

                I haven't looked at the layout of the Hawaii stadium to see how it would play out "on the field". I think its open on the ends.?.?
                Some stadiums are not domes but enclosed enough, wind may not be as big an impact.
                I would wager hawaii often has winds that are higher than "normal" seeing as they are out in the middle of the pacific. I don't have any data to support that, it's just a theory.
                Comment
                • 2daBank
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 01-26-09
                  • 88966

                  #183
                  Originally posted by fecgp40
                  I took GT just before kickoff last night at +2.5. I loved the line move. Not sure if it's just my perception and I'm full of crap (very possible!) but it seems to me when a team goes from a short fave to a short dog they usually cover. Seems kind of strange because the supposed "sharp" money moving the line would be on the losing side more often than not? I dunno. Thoughts?
                  Someone I have a great deal of respect that posted on here years ago always told me he loved teams that opened as favs and flipped to dogs. The logic being he trusted oddsmakers line more than the money that flipped it which I thought was sound. I’ve never tracked it cause well I’m lazy and not much a tracker! But ever since we had that conversation I’ve always been cognizant of that to the point im wary if I agree w move and more confident when I’m against. Can’t say how much weight it holds but my perception lines up w yours and think it has served me fairly well.

                  Dunno why you wernt in here posting anything bout it tho since we had some discussion?!?! Party foul bro! Wouldn’t have taken much to push me into a tech play, I was close anyways!! As I mentioned tho for some reason I was seeing it as tech being fav, had I realized I coulda got plus money I prob would have played, lol. Just couldn’t stomach trusting them as favs!!
                  Last edited by 2daBank; 11-22-19, 03:04 PM.
                  Comment
                  • 2daBank
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 01-26-09
                    • 88966

                    #184
                    Originally posted by ElJefe305
                    I locked in Miami -18.5 earlier on Tuesday before the line move. I would still take it at -20.5; might look like a homer play given my avatar lol, but FIU is straight trash and this is a neutral site game at Marlins Park, the former home of one of the most electric environments in all of college football in the old Orange Bowl. The players on Miami have been talking all week about playing on "sacred ground" and know that this is FIU's Super Bowl per say. Don't look at last year's score - obviously Malik Rosier was an abomination at the QB position and Mark Richt just flat out ran 5 plays all frickin year (inside run, outside run, bubble screen, verts, TE shallow cross) which is why we couldn't score for sh!t.

                    The offense just hung 55 on Louisville and it could have been 60+ no problem if we didn't take the foot off the gas. Jarren Williams is the truth, this offense is just starting to click, and there's no way FIU scores more than 17 (including garbage time). I think it'll be, at worst, 45-17.
                    We like “homer plays” from guys that bring good info as you are! We just don’t like the blind homer dipshits!

                    I’ve always said fans of teams should be a great resource for us but unfortunately too many of them have emotional blinders both ways. Some like a moron Vikings homer I won’t mention refuses to say anything negative about his team and totally useless to us. Others so damaged they can never see the good!! You sound like one the rare reasonable ones I wish we had more of! Welcome to thread.
                    Comment
                    • 2daBank
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 01-26-09
                      • 88966

                      #185
                      Originally posted by ElJefe305
                      Anyone tempted by taking Texas as a dog again? I did it last week both spread and ML and it nearly worked out, we all know Herman is a beast as an underdog ATS. I can't tell if Baylor is still going to be hungover from that brutal choke job against OU, or they'll come out pissed and make a statement.
                      I lean horns. I’m not sure the hangover per-say be a issue since this always a huge game in Baylor’s minds so I don’t see a letdown. I do think something that will be a issue is how worn down bears appeared in the 4th qrtr of that game. What I’m starting to think a fair take on Baylor is the top half of their roster is good enough to compete with just about anyone but they lack the depth of the big boys so at this point in season and late in games I think teams like sooners or Texas who have 4-5 star guys on the bench have a big advantage late in games.

                      As disappointing Herman has been in horns fans eyes he still remains excellent as a dog not only covering at a insanely high clip but also winning a great deal of them outright. I think if horns spread the field and go hurry up right from the jump they will have a very good chance of wearing bears down. I don’t like laying points w bears as is cause their offense tends to look very lackluster. Even last week a great deal of their total came curtesy of hurts making mistakes early and giving them lot of short fields.,
                      Comment
                      • 2daBank
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 01-26-09
                        • 88966

                        #186
                        Originally posted by STANDARD BET
                        Taking a peak at the game tonight. Anyone leaning CO State?
                        I already posted 1st half +3.5. Little afraid Wyoming wears them down as the game goes on but think CSU can compete early. Actually think they have a decent shot at the upset but I do think they need to be leading/close at half to have a shot. They actually rank fairly closely to wyo in 1st half play, but they tend to fade late and wyo physical play wears teams down late.

                        Hence 1st half play for me, I think CSU will have success moving ball thru air, just need them to avoid the turnovers and they be right in this game imo.
                        Comment
                        • 2daBank
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 01-26-09
                          • 88966

                          #187
                          Originally posted by BigdaddyQH
                          "Nearly worked out" means it lost. Herman is becoming a major disappointment at Texas. He has lost 10 games in two seasons and is showing no improvement at all this season. This team was suppose to challenge for the Big 12 title and instead, will finish as just another also-ran in the Big 12. I would not touch Texas.
                          They covered the spread is what it means. I understand not touching horns but I wouldn’t touch Baylor laying a td.
                          Comment
                          • 2daBank
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 01-26-09
                            • 88966

                            #188
                            Originally posted by ElJefe305
                            It did lose but I put more on the spread than ML so I came out perfectly content...no doubt he is becoming a big disappointment there. He's bringing in elite talent and yet still struggles to field a competent defense and has a QB that makes way too many mistakes in Ehlinger. I probably won't touch this game but thought it could be interesting to analyze.
                            He isn’t working out the way I’m sure horns fans envisioned but they still great dogs under him. I think you on right track w horns and the points.
                            Comment
                            • 2daBank
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 01-26-09
                              • 88966

                              #189
                              Originally posted by CappinTerp
                              Hey banker , whats up ? Was looking at this OSU/PSU game. This line does look a little too high. And the high price has little to do with Youngs return. IMO the PSU defensive secondary is it's weak link. And the OSU passing attack will have a field day.....the over on this game is worth a look !....................................... ....BOL
                              Make sure you check the weather. I’ve heard some wet/cold conditions around Midwest and east this Saturday which i think would help psu defense a great deal. Honesty I have no interest in this game far as betting it. I think number a good 3-4 points inflated but for good reason as I have no interest stepping in front that osu train.
                              Comment
                              • 2daBank
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 01-26-09
                                • 88966

                                #190
                                Originally posted by asiagambler
                                Looks like windy conditions in Wyoming tonight. May not bode well for CSU
                                Ugh. Yea that not good for CSU. I didn’t even look for some dumb reason, we talking lot of wind?
                                Comment
                                • 2daBank
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 01-26-09
                                  • 88966

                                  #191
                                  Originally posted by Tanko
                                  Idk... I'm seeing 8 mph winds tonight is not too bad. Source: http://www.donbest.com/ncaaf/weather/
                                  AG, you seeiing something different?

                                  Also, I vaguely remember reading about someone doing an analysis on how wind impacts game performance. The trend I thought indicated significant impact on passing games starts once you go above 12-13 mph. They had used data over years. Wish I'd kept the reference. I've kind of used that as a reference point over the years for "passing" team plays.
                                  Oh thank goodness. Hope your forecast is correct!! Lol.

                                  Personally I don’t sweat anything under 15 mph.
                                  Comment
                                  • 2daBank
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 01-26-09
                                    • 88966

                                    #192
                                    Originally posted by asiagambler
                                    Rutgers +1041

                                    Small bet. I think Michigan State is finished. Lost 5 in a row to mostly good teams but they've struggled to put away bad teams too. Let Indiana come back to tie. Let Illinois come back from 25 down and lost outright

                                    Losing their best defensive player hurts and they are dealing with lots of injuries too. Rutgers can run the ball a little and their QB has improved from horrific to just below average

                                    Rutgers playing hard for interim coach and players should be excited to get Greg Schiano back. Senior day for them as well

                                    Michigan State having trouble running the ball and their QB has been underwhelming. If Rutgers can get some turnover luck, I think this has a chance
                                    This though has crossed my mind once or twice throughout the week but then I realize who I’d be trusting and get a little sick to stomach! Lol. If there was ever a game buttgers could pull one out I’d say this is it vs a dumpster fire sparty team, but have they really fallen that far? I dunno. I damn sure wouldn’t back sparty, even if you gave me sparty -350 to win don’t think I’d take it, which obviously should mean I love this play, but I don’t. Lol
                                    Comment
                                    • 2daBank
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 01-26-09
                                      • 88966

                                      #193
                                      Originally posted by Buckandadime
                                      Don't know the record but it's Senior Day at Tulsa..
                                      Montgomery's first recruitment class is graduating..
                                      2 players that lead the conference in tackles and interceptions are both seniors...
                                      Food for thought..
                                      You know I love that Tulsa team. Not too interested backing them as favs tho.
                                      Comment
                                      • 2daBank
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 01-26-09
                                        • 88966

                                        #194
                                        Ok. Think I answered everyone who posted since last night!! If I missed any I apologize and just bring it up again!!

                                        Updated Card so far:

                                        Gophers -12.5
                                        Temple/cincy u47.5
                                        Beavers +10.5
                                        CSU 1st half +3.5
                                        Comment
                                        • 5mike5
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 09-21-11
                                          • 51975

                                          #195
                                          Minnesota QB is starting. Great news
                                          Comment
                                          • stevenash
                                            Moderator
                                            • 01-17-11
                                            • 65448

                                            #196
                                            Texas A&M will beat Georgia outright.
                                            I’m serious as a heart attack.
                                            Comment
                                            • 2daBank
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 01-26-09
                                              • 88966

                                              #197
                                              Originally posted by Lance Flaun
                                              @kentelola is the best in the gambling business!
                                              No automated system, you talk to the real deal. #sportsbetting
                                              Kill yourself you miserable piece of trash. We post more winners a week than your boyfriend ever has. Nobody here needs his garbage plays. You in the wrong spot you panhandling loser.

                                              “Real deals” don’t have to sell picks. We here sharing for free.
                                              Comment
                                              • 2daBank
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 01-26-09
                                                • 88966

                                                #198
                                                Originally posted by stevenash
                                                Texas A&M will beat Georgia outright.
                                                I’m serious as a heart attack.
                                                Meh. Could happen. Safe to say you love the points? Lol.

                                                Nasher what about your navy boys and that 16 senior day wins in a row?!!!! Good play this week?
                                                Comment
                                                • 2daBank
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 01-26-09
                                                  • 88966

                                                  #199
                                                  Originally posted by 5mike5
                                                  Minnesota QB is starting. Great news
                                                  Nice!! Feel great getting in at -12.5!! Thanks mike!!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • stevenash
                                                    Moderator
                                                    • 01-17-11
                                                    • 65448

                                                    #200
                                                    Originally posted by 2daBank
                                                    Meh. Could happen. Safe to say you love the points? Lol.

                                                    Nasher what about your navy boys and that 16 senior day wins in a row?!!!! Good play this week?
                                                    Navy and A&M for me tomorrow.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • 2daBank
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 01-26-09
                                                      • 88966

                                                      #201
                                                      Originally posted by stevenash
                                                      Navy and A&M for me tomorrow.
                                                      You playing Aggies ml?? They such a pain in the ass cause it usually comes down to whether you get good or bad Mond. The problem for me is AM doesn’t tend to show well vs the ranked teams.

                                                      Navy looks really good, think they gonna make my card. Little worried about their pass d, and little worried smu rates very good in some run d metrics. That said they also have tendency to have issues maintaining gap discipline which obviously a terrible thing against the military academies!! That has shown to be very true vs navy as well, navy has scored 30-43-75 the last 3 meetings!!!
                                                      Comment
                                                      • stevenash
                                                        Moderator
                                                        • 01-17-11
                                                        • 65448

                                                        #202
                                                        Originally posted by 2daBank
                                                        You playing Aggies ml?? They such a pain in the ass cause it usually comes down to whether you get good or bad Mond. The problem for me is AM doesn’t tend to show well vs the ranked teams.

                                                        Navy looks really good, think they gonna make my card. Little worried about their pass d, and little worried smu rates very good in some run d metrics. That said they also have tendency to have issues maintaining gap discipline which obviously a terrible thing against the military academies!! That has shown to be very true vs navy as well, navy has scored 30-43-75 the last 3 meetings!!!
                                                        Aggies and Navy strong for me ATS
                                                        Aggies for like 10 bucks on the money line.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • 2daBank
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 01-26-09
                                                          • 88966

                                                          #203
                                                          Originally posted by stevenash
                                                          Aggies and Navy strong for me ATS
                                                          Aggies for like 10 bucks on the money line.
                                                          What number get on navy?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • fecgp40
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 02-01-11
                                                            • 5750

                                                            #204
                                                            Originally posted by 2daBank
                                                            Someone I have a great deal of respect that posted on here years ago always told me he loved teams that opened as favs and flipped to dogs. The logic being he trusted oddsmakers line more than the money that flipped it which I thought was sound. I’ve never tracked it cause well I’m lazy and not much a tracker! But ever since we had that conversation I’ve always been cognizant of that to the point im wary if I agree w move and more confident when I’m against. Can’t say how much weight it holds but my perception lines up w yours and think it has served me fairly well.

                                                            Dunno why you wernt in here posting anything bout it tho since we had some discussion?!?! Party foul bro! Wouldn’t have taken much to push me into a tech play, I was close anyways!! As I mentioned tho for some reason I was seeing it as tech being fav, had I realized I coulda got plus money I prob would have played, lol. Just couldn’t stomach trusting them as favs!!
                                                            Party foul accepted Banker. I'm guilty. I did like Tech all week, but wasn't in love with the play. A guy I respect texted me right before game time saying he liked GT and between that and the line move was enough to push me on them. I literally locked it in one minute before kickoff!! This week has been crazy for me and I haven't had much time for posting. I hate it when work gets in the way of what's really important!! LOL! Craziness behind me now though. Let's get it this weekend!
                                                            Comment
                                                            • fecgp40
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 02-01-11
                                                              • 5750

                                                              #205
                                                              Originally posted by 2daBank
                                                              You playing Aggies ml?? They such a pain in the ass cause it usually comes down to whether you get good or bad Mond. The problem for me is AM doesn’t tend to show well vs the ranked teams.

                                                              Navy looks really good, think they gonna make my card. Little worried about their pass d, and little worried smu rates very good in some run d metrics. That said they also have tendency to have issues maintaining gap discipline which obviously a terrible thing against the military academies!! That has shown to be very true vs navy as well, navy has scored 30-43-75 the last 3 meetings!!!
                                                              Navy's pass D could be a big problem vs. SMU. This certainly could be a high scoring back and forth game as neither team may be able to stop the other. I guess the question is how much clock does Navy chew up on their drives?
                                                              Comment
                                                              • fecgp40
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 02-01-11
                                                                • 5750

                                                                #206
                                                                Originally posted by 2daBank
                                                                We like “homer plays” from guys that bring good info as you are! We just don’t like the blind homer dipshits!

                                                                I’ve always said fans of teams should be a great resource for us but unfortunately too many of them have emotional blinders both ways. Some like a moron Vikings homer I won’t mention refuses to say anything negative about his team and totally useless to us. Others so damaged they can never see the good!! You sound like one the rare reasonable ones I wish we had more of! Welcome to thread.
                                                                I'm going to jump on the homer bandwagon here and agree Miami covers vs. FIU. If Jaren William's plays anything like he has been, Miami should put up 50 + with ease against FIU.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • fecgp40
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 02-01-11
                                                                  • 5750

                                                                  #207
                                                                  Originally posted by 5mike5
                                                                  Minnesota QB is starting. Great news
                                                                  Minny up to -14 at my book. I hate to mention this, but does this play fall into the "nobody is on NW" category? I agree Minny should cover but this just makes me nervous.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • 2daBank
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 01-26-09
                                                                    • 88966

                                                                    #208
                                                                    Originally posted by fecgp40
                                                                    Navy's pass D could be a big problem vs. SMU. This certainly could be a high scoring back and forth game as neither team may be able to stop the other. I guess the question is how much clock does Navy chew up on their drives?
                                                                    Always the question and I find incredibly hard to answer. I do think they gonna have more success hitting big chunk plays than sustaining lot of long ones cause smu run d does some things surprisingly well, their problem is they also get gashed for big ones and poor gap discipline vs navy a recipe for disaster.

                                                                    I do think we should expect a clean game from navy qb after last week nightmare. I went back and watched replay of the ND game and wasn’t as if they had problems moving the ball, it was just the turnovers buried them in a huge hole. Turns out that game wasn’t nearly the ass kicking I thought/appeared to be. Perry took full responsibility for it as you would expect a navy kid and think he will play much better here.

                                                                    Can smu continue matching them if navy plays clean and every smu drive leaves has no margin for error? That would be my question and I think the answer is no, they will make mistakes that allows navy to push a lead. Navy gets up a few scores and it game over imo. No smu comeback here as navy will then bleed them!
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Cuse0323
                                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                      • 12-09-09
                                                                      • 30169

                                                                      #209
                                                                      Doing everyone on CSU a favor, and all in on Wyoming -5.5
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • 2daBank
                                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                                        • 01-26-09
                                                                        • 88966

                                                                        #210
                                                                        Originally posted by fecgp40
                                                                        Minny up to -14 at my book. I hate to mention this, but does this play fall into the "nobody is on NW" category? I agree Minny should cover but this just makes me nervous.
                                                                        I dunno, prob be lopsided, just dunno if it has huge appeal to be one the more highly bet games? I’m not real worried bout it. At -14 tho that would be my cutoff, not sure I’d even play there honestly. Of course I think push the fear at 14 not really a loss so guess still ok. I have it around 31-14 but that total is only 39.5 so maybe I’m over shooting w scoring? 14 could def be high for NW! Lol. Feel fairly confident gophers can give us 4 tds.
                                                                        Comment
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