Great write ups KVB
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I think BC beats Toronto by 10+. Only thing Im weary of is off bye for TorontoComment -
take both dogs and both unders as the worst you do is 2-2
forget handicappingComment -
CALGARY STAMPEDERS AT OTTAWA REDBLACKS
Lance’s thoughts: Calgary has shown some vulnerability this season, while Ottawa still plays like an expansion team. The only reason this game will be close is because it’s being played in Ottawa’s rowdy TD Place in Ottawa. Calgary will need Cornish to play like he did last game to provide Mitchell with the time to throw the ball downfield and open up a two-dimensional Stamps attack. Ottawa will need to take advantage of the energy from the crowd early, but even if they do, it will be downhill from there.
Kelly Bale: Calgary 32 – Ottawa 11
Matthew Bin: Calgary 29 – Ottawa 15
Matthew Crockett: Calgary 35 – Ottawa 14
Nicholas Di Giovanni: Calgary 27 – Ottawa 15
Connor Ferguson: Calgary 35 – Ottawa 21
Lance Keiser: Calgary 27 – Ottawa 25
Michael Wilts: Calgary 35 – Ottawa 24
TORONTO ARGONAUTS AT B.C. LIONS
Kelly’s thoughts: The Argos have had an impressive start to 2015 despite their horrible schedule. They sit atop the eastern division standings with a record of 2-1, thanks to contributions from new faces and old. Trevor Harris and Chad Owens have found some chemistry over the past two weeks but I don’t think we’ve seen the best from them yet. But the B.C. Lions are hitting their stride after convincing back-to-back victories over the Saskatchewan Roughriders where the Lions outplayed their opposition in all three phases of the game. Rookie punter Richie Leone and veteran quarterback Travis Lulay are leading the way with some great numbers. The field position Leone’s leg has bought Travis Lulay has been game changing. Take the Lions plus four points in what should be the CFL’s game of the week.
Kelly Bale: Toronto 22 – B.C. 27
Matthew Bin: Toronto 26 – B.C. 32
Matthew Crockett: Toronto 28 – B.C. 25
Nicholas Di Giovanni: Toronto 27 – B.C. 24
Connor Ferguson: Toronto 28 – B.C. 27
Lance Keiser: Toronto 31 – B.C. 26
Michael Wilts: Toronto 20 – B.C. 28
WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS AT EDMONTON ESKIMOS
Mike’s thoughts: The pesky Bombers are like mosquitos buzzing in the Eskimos ears over the last five games at Commonwealth Stadium. It’s no secret the Eskimos have the top-ranked defence in the CFL, which should be prefect repellent for Winnipeg’s second-ranked offence. The Bombers front seven have a hard time stopping the run, which will have the Eskimos rookie running back Shakir Bell licking his chops after his impressive debut last week. The key to an Eskimos win is forcing the Bombers to play on a longer field, a battle the Eskimos can win with solid defense and capitalizing offensively as Nichols gets more comfortable throwing the ball.
Kelly Bale: Winnipeg 26 – Edmonton 38
Matthew Bin: Winnipeg 22 – Edmonton 30
Matthew Crockett: Winnipeg 28 – Edmonton 24
Nicholas Di Giovanni: Winnipeg 17 – Edmonton 33
Connor Ferguson: Winnipeg 20 – Edmonton 34
Lance Keiser: Winnipeg 20 – Edmonton 26
Michael Wilts: Winnipeg 12 – Edmonton 33
HAMILTON TIGER-CATS AT SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS
Matt C’s thoughts: This is it! This is the week the losing stops. The Riders are facing the Ticats in Regina with all those angry watermelons. Hamilton had a low scoring defensive battle last week with Montreal that dropped them to 1-2. This will be Hamilton’s fourth road game this season and will be in the most hostile territory possible: Mosaic Stadium is going to be very loud this Friday. Both teams have shown that they can get the ball into the end zone but are lacking defensive stopping power. Look for Dressler to run the score up early but expect Collaros to connect with Banks to even the game up later on.
Kelly Bale: Hamilton 17 – Saskatchewan 42
Matthew Bin: Hamilton 35 – Saskatchewan 19
Matthew Crockett: Hamilton 21 – Saskatchewan 24
Nicholas Di Giovanni: Hamilton 42 – Saskatchewan 9
Connor Ferguson: Hamilton 45 – Saskatchewan 20
Lance Keiser: Hamilton 35 – Saskatchewan 31
Michael Wilts: Hamilton 43 – Saskatchewan 30Comment -
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there's a great youtube channel if anyone is interested in watching CFL replays.
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The line has been set to trap trend bettors and those who use means instead of medians to handicap. While Toronto has covered all three spreads they’ve faced, those trying to get Toronto to fail ATS are outnumbered by the line ignorant dog bettors and the early season line creators.
As the line drops below 3 public steam will pile on and I believe the underdog will find itself a losing bet. In my opinion the books are taking a position in British Colombia.
This could be one of the signs a gambler like Khan could take into account as he determines when “the favorites start to cover.”
I’m picking up British Colombia -3 (+102) as well as British Colombia -2.5 (-115) over and may consider a larger position as things develop tomorrow.
Good Luck
Just picked up British Colombia -2 (-108) for my last piece of this game. Pinny offers -3 (+113)...this is also a good bet.
I think you're right PorkChop, BC going to crush them. I don't think it's going to be pretty for Toronto. I smell a tease killer kind of game tonight.
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I know is the CFL thread but any thought on the CUBS Phillies game? I'm thinking of a Lions parlay & its been a while since I have seen the cubs a 2-1 favourite.
I like Lester & I am aware that the Phillies line up is worse than some minor league teams but...
The Cubs -300 at some books?
C'monComment -
Everyone talked about how easy the Dodgers were yesterday and now this shit? Cubs -300 just seems so hard to swallow that is might be good.
I could write a ton on the high priced baseball bets and how some even have value, and how the books are milking that landscape with some of these pitchers, but not here.
Sometimes the toughest bets to make end up being the best ones out there. So I guess we have to ask ourselves, which bet is tougher to make...
Phillies, period. Or Cubs -300, even with Lester. -250 starts to make more sense.
I'm not really sure myself. As the first game in the rotation tonight, it may be in a lot of parlays. This game has WTF? or parlay killer written all over it.
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KVB - thanks for the insights. I have Ottawa favored by 1 tonight, but don't trust the model quite yet. Also show slightly under at ~43.5.
My stronger play though is over 53 in the late game. I have that one in the 60s. I'm giving that play a whirl tonight but expect (hope?) my numbers will be more reliable after another week or so of games. (For example, the Calgary blowout road loss is skewing things quite a bit, but I still have Ottawa favored if I throw that out.) FWIW, I have Toronto winning as well, but not playing that either b/c my totals tend to come around before the sides.
Regardless, GL to all!Comment -
Good luck Guy, I look forward to your posts over the coming weeks. I agree about totals coming around before sides, like the NFL, the Total markets tend to be a bit softer than the sides.
Glad to here about Toronto also, I hope it's a trap.
Good Luck on the OVER tonight, I'm getting the sense that we are going to see ton of points on Sunday night, so I'm a little weary. Who knows. we mightt get a ton of points today.
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Cheers to you as well. I'll post what I have, and I don't get my feelings hurt if there are disagreements. As long as I'm not hitting 50/50, there's probably something useful in there.
I don't have my numbers handy for the Sat and Sun games, but I should be able to post those later tonight.
I have what I think is a very strong Arena total for tomorrow that I'll post as soon as 5Dimes drops the juice.
Out of curiosity, does anyone have JR O'Donnell's 3* CFL play? He has been pretty good this year.Comment -
Game one has Calgary leading 19-17 at half. That was my game prediction. Picking up Calgary vs. Ottawa 2nd half UNDER 24 (-110).
Good Luck.Comment -
OK. I was going off the top of my head earlier. Here is what I have for the games this week. Keep in mind that these probably need a couple of weeks for better reliability:
Ottawa -4.5 46.3
BC +20.4 67.4 (really skeptical of the side on this one)
Edmonton -2.6 54.3
Sas +17.2 72.1 (this one is fishy too)Comment -
Jul 24, 2015
3:41 PM
#600160682
Placed by Web
Single #600160682
Football - Point Spread
Calgary Stampeders @ Ottawa Redblacks
Ottawa Redblacks 4.5 (-110) Jul 24, 2015 4:00 PM
Outcome: Win
Date settled: Jul 24, 2015 7:08 PM
$110.00
$100.00
Jul 24, 2015
6:45 PM
#600182358
Placed by Web
Single #600182358
Football - Point Spread
Toronto Argonauts @ British Columbia Lions
Toronto Argonauts 3.0 (-120) Jul 24, 2015 7:00 PM
$120.00
$100.00Comment -
cfl a really grea,t product, most games i've seen has been down the wire. The new rule on giving space on receivers really makes the game exciting.Comment -
nice hits, gk.Comment -
Thread is one of the better ones I've seen on SBR in a long time. Appreciate your guys' willingness to stick your necks out.Comment -
Since week 3 began every simple, unsophisticated model has been 8-2 against the point spread, but only 3-7 against the money line.
Those winning bettors, for reasons of handicapping and money management, will likely be shaken out before mid season. It happens every year, in almost every market.
Good games today for sure.
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better to be lucky than good. if i lose 3 bets in a row, i'm out.Comment -
I’ve included above pieces for Saturday’s game from an earlier post. I do believe the books were protecting themselves from early OVER betting when they moved the opening line for Winnipeg at Edmonton from 51.5 to 52.5. However, I may have given unsophisticated bettors too much credit for betting early, they do usually move on game day.
After further review, I believe some heavier line movers took advantage of the books sensitivity to the OVERS and manipulated the market.
With the rough line created, with admittedly weaker stats, a great deal of extra value is created when the line is 52.5 rather than 51.5. I talked about key numbers, as in the NFL, and there are key numbers with totals. These do evolve and suffice to say at this point getting Under 52.5 is a far better deal than Under 51.5, even with one team having only three games played…the market as a whole has plenty of games under its belt.
Those who know this will put this knowledge to use. I believe the market was manipulated upward only to be hammered down by the same bettors.
As such, while we risk a 51 or 52 point game and the value is not the same, I believe there is enough there with the evidence I have and am also going with what I see as sharp money by picking up UNDER 51 (-122) & Under 50.5 (-102) for Winnipeg versus Edmonton.
Good Luck
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Learning from mistakes is important, it’s actually the best we learn, even better than by example, and is one reason to reflect on previous work. Even if no real mistakes were made, reflection can bring new insights and set you up for future plays.
I made two plays that failed on Friday. In both games, the sides dropped and the game results followed with two dogs. The total numbers also dropped, but this time the results were against the move, going over.
From a line movement and result perspective, the same thing happened in both games.
Consider this from earlier…
While I was busy trying to get the unsophisticated Toronto backers to lose in a trap my most sophisticated line of the week, the Under that had value in the Calgary vs. Ottawa game also steamed down.
Perhaps I was trapped. After all, whose money is a better target for the books early on…the unsophisticated bettor I’ve been talking about, who, no matter how much is won, the books know will give back eventually or money using a sharper line, whom the books might want to discourage early as they may go toe to toe all year long?
It’s something to think about.
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I also like Portland+5Comment -
CFL Saturday / Sunday
10-4 for the season
Saturday night:
Edmonton-5.5
Sunday:
Hamilton+1Comment -
Good Luck Guy, Good Luck True.
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I like Edmonton tonight to.
I wish I could find alternative point spreads cause I think the cover 15+Comment -
This post is from the first game this week. The remaining two games fit the bill of still having one team with only 3 games played.
I tend to agree with you guys in regards to Edmonton tonight. This is Edmonton’s 4th game so it could be a statement by them. While I have Edmonton with 24 or 27 points, it’s Winnipeg’s 17 points that seem more solid for me here. Edmonton could always continue a defensive statement and I think it’s Winnipeg who may struggle tonight. Money the books took in on team totals last night may come back to the bettors tonight.
As such, I’m going with Winnipeg Team Total UNDER 22.5 (-110) in the Winnipeg vs. Edmonton game. If I were a gambling man with no money plan, I might load up here.
Further, it is my belief that the books have correctly handled their business in these last two games and look to split bettors, it’s just difficult to see their own opinions…making the standard juice the game winner for the house.
Should Edmonton cover this spread tonight, I think Saskatchewan may get their first win. I’m not taking a position yet for a couple of reasons. First, there is more information we have yet to receive; second, it seems this week has been more about an even keel with Total bettors than sides, and finally Saskatchewan still seeks their first win…a market pull in and of itself that is partially responsible for them being favored by 1 point at home tomorrow.
Good Luck
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