close first half, now it looks like a blowout.
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italy -7.5 in the nextComment -
i like italy to win 1-12, Italy clearly the better team but Scotland have some quality in douglas and nrl experience in key position with wallace. They should keep it close. Italy won their last encounter by 16 against wales but they scored an 80min try.Comment -
SANDO SANDO SANDO SANDO!!! USA pick... Banked!
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penetrate italyComment -
can't believe scotland is going to pull off another flukeComment -
game of the tournament.
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Any leans on the Cook islands game Sando??Comment -
Sando, did you watch last PNG game vs. France?Comment -
Im a bit confused about PNG-Samoa game, Samoa get points vs NZ only in second half when NZ rested some players and get loosen a bit, thinking about PNG tonightComment -
I think if Ben Roberts plays well Samoa roll the guy is an enigma though, if he can get that back line ticking on the back of that massive pack there really isn't much in the way of stopping them. Goal kicking has to be an issue in terms of covering Milford was 2/5 hard to see him improving that stat judging by how he was kicking, PNG seem to have that problem as well though! Maybe the under after typing that as shanked kicks can kill overs.
Samoa were only in that game for twenty minutes against the Kiwis and although it's probably because NZ let their foot off the gas the Samoans showed what they can do when old uncle mo is on there side, twenty points in 13 minutes!
*Taking the under 48.5 NZ TabComment -
Taking PNG +14.4 tonightComment -
Ouch this isn't going to last long. PNG giving this one away.Comment -
the worst pick everComment -
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Thoughts on Tonga vs. Cook islands (sorry to hijack thread Sando :P but all the people interested come here, no point in making a thread for one post)
From their earlier games, Tonga failed to deliver against scotland when most people rated them as probably 4th or 5th best team in the cup. Cook Islands lost to a USA side that has been clearly underrated after their consecutive wins. I watched the USAvWales game and the USA defence was very structured and desperate. So many one on one tackles that made a huge impact on the game. The key thing that i noticed in the defence of the lower teams was their inability to secure the ball and prevent offloads. Also it took longer for players to bring down the ball carrier. From this, the USA illustrated they were not just a fluke team but had a game plan and played with structure. How does this matter to tonga vs cookislands?
Basically, the first Cook islands' lose against usa was not a fluke but a difference in quality. On paper you can see the NRL experience of Cook islands but note many of the players like drury low, zane tetvano, dominique peyroux etc. are fringe first graders having played 2 or 3 games in the starting 13 and playing a handful more off the bench. When you put these guys into 80min situations and without NRL quality players to play alongside them, it is very hard for them to make a impact. Dylan Napa is the standout from the Cook island's team adding aggression, go forward and hits like a hammer. Zeb Taia is a very solid workhorse who will make the tackles and carries with him a lot of NRL experience. He has also played in super league so he is adjusted to the weather conditions/environment in the UK. The one vital weakness in the cook island's team is brad takarangi playing 5/8. He has NEVER played 5/8 at club level and isnt that great in the centres. He would be much more better in this tournament playing centres against inexperienced wingers/centre opposition. Whilst isaac john was solid when panthers were in form, he isn't a great defender and lacks creativity and quality in attack. I havn't seen him try to make cut out passes or run arounds, sweeps etc. His kicking game is also very weak and he is mostly a ball runner. Overall not a great player to play the key position of HB which needs to direct team and provide field position.
The tongan team has NRL experience across 1-17 and they are very very scary opposition. When you got guys like hurrell and tafau in the backline with taumololo running in the forwards, opposition will be intimidated. Their surprise lose against Scotland in the first game was mainly due to poor play (maybe attributed to the fact that it was the first time many of these players played in the UK conditions) and also underration of Scotland. Scotland managed to draw against Italy who i consider the best of the lower teams. I am wiling to suggest Italy is the 5th best team on form. Tonga has very solid forward running props in kite and moimoi and dangerous wider runners in sika manu and taumololo who are nearly impossible to stop at the line. The flair, attacking prowness of their backline is unmatched. However, like cook islands, their weakness lies in their halves pairing. Both are solid NYC players (u20s) but NRL quality is another level (playing with boys to men). Both young halves lack experience, leadership and inability to direct the team. They have also only played with each other a couple of times. You really need your halves to provide field position and direction, even salvage or motivate the team when they are losing in scoreline or momentum. Other than that, they are better than cook islands in every other position, maybe even in prop forwards.
Games between island nations is less focused on defence and more on "who can score more points." the problem with this strategy/attitude is the weather conditions of UK being wet, slippery and much colder than the Australian climate these players are used to. For the Aussie fans, from what i understand its somewhat similiar to playing in Canberra. The line is currently at +/-18.5 and this will really depend on the ground conditions. If it is in fine conditions, look for hurrel/tafua to terrorise their opposition. However if its wet we will see a lot of errors and dropballs. From what i can see the line of +18.5 is much too generous especially considering the much more defensive pack cook islands have. From my perspective it would be around 12-14 +/-. Having said that, you never know the outcome between two islander nations who rely on attack.
My prediction: Cook islands +18.5Comment -
Got Cook +20 I think I will tail you there
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I think Tonga cover here. The Cook Islands won't have any answers.Comment -
Went to the game last night between png and Samoa, got on in play after the 1st try at -22 Samoa. Think Tonga will blow Cook Islands away in the first half, they underestimated Scotland last time and will be up for this from the off. Tonga -8.5 first half handicap Evs bet365Comment -
No play tonight, Sando?Comment -
Thank you for the tip
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World Cup back on tonight.
Working on a play for tonight now...Comment -
Tough Game today. Scotland is in a must win situation and the USA are already qualified. If the spread was -3.5/-4 then yes but -6.5?. Also the underdogs in this WC are 10-4 ATS.Comment -
Scotland v USA
1* Scotland to win by 1-12 ($3.10/+210 Centrebet/Sportingbet)
Both have been impressive this tournament, however Scotland more so with the win and the draw coming against two opponents who would have both likely beaten the US. Scotland with a more settled team and one of the best halves in the entire competition in Danny Brough, who has an outstanding kicking game and when partnered with Peter Wallace actually makes a pretty good halves combo. Scotland also with that extra touch of class with Douglas in the forward pack and Linnet in the back line, and their rising star fullback - 20 year old Matthew Russell. Also of importance is that USA have already qualified for the QF's, whereas Scotland have not, and as a result it will be hard for the US to match Scotland's intensity you would think. I am more worried about Scotland winning by more than 12 points than I am about Scotland not winning, however I quite like this bet and think the price being offered is great value as well. USA will fight hard, but Scotland should get the job done in the end.Comment -
Nvm, saw the other option now. How confident are you in this pick compared to the others you have hit?Comment -
How about Australia? Can they cover a 56.5 line?Comment -
What's your take on the Scotland vs USA game Lordkai?? Do you think as the Americans have already qualified through to the next round that they will be content just to get through this one without any injuries? Scotland would be the more desperate team in this match you would thinkComment -
Scotland should cover but I will wait for USA squad announcement, prefer to play over in this game, even if it is 50,5Comment
missed a kicked right in front
