Superbowl Props That Have Caught Your Eye

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  • slacker00
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 10-06-05
    • 12262

    #36
    Originally posted by andywend
    Mike, I wasn't asking your opinion on whether you like the over/under on the individual quarterback passing yard totals as that opinion has nothing to do with whether or not the wager I mentioned has value.

    Once again, I'll ask the question:

    What is fair value on either quarterback passing for 300 or more yards in the Super Bowl when their projected totals are 233 (Big Ben) and 256 (Warner)?

    +240 seems way too high on this
    Jumping to 300 from 256 & 233 is tougher than you seem to think it is. I'll try to illustrate in terms of current data.

    Ben threw for 300 yards only 7 times in 73 regular season starts. In the playoffs he is 1 for 9 throwing 300. So, fair odds on him throwing for 300 in the Super Bowl is over 9 to 1.

    Kurt threw for 300 yards 18 times out of 47 regular season games with the Cards. In the playoffs he's 0 for 3 throwing 300 with the Cards. So, fair odds on Kurt throwing 300 in the Super Bowl has to be at least 3 to 1, considering the defense he's going against.

    So, true odds for the pair is probably about 2 1/2 to 1. Your bet is reasonable, if you feel you've got some type of handicapping edge, but I wouldn't be doing backflips or anything about it with respect to the other two individual passing props you indicate above.



    As far as their individual 233 & 256 o/u, I'd take Ben with the under 233 and Kurt with the over 256. Ben has only thrown for over 233 in 21 of his 73 regular season starts and 3 of 9 in the playoffs. Kurt has thrown over 256 in 27 of his 47 games with the Cards and 2 of 3 in the playoffs. Kurt was even better with the Rams, if you want to dig into those stats, but I stuck with his Cardinal stats only because it's more relevant to his current teammates, situations & coaches.
    Comment
    • BigAL
      Restricted User
      • 01-27-09
      • 461

      #37
      Originally posted by Smogs
      One caught my eye - boldin's longest reception, under 21.5 yards @ -120. i dont think the steelers will allow any more yards than that. I havent looked at boldins stats tbh but it caught my eye, ill look into it further

      Steelers have allowed a miniscule amount of long 20+ passing plays this year
      Comment
      • Smogs
        SBR MVP
        • 12-31-08
        • 4173

        #38
        Cheers bigAL, looks a tasty bet
        Comment
        • Portlander
          SBR Sharp
          • 09-22-08
          • 292

          #39
          The Greek has that prop at 230.5 sounds like you are getting a good deal.
          Comment
          • andywend
            SBR MVP
            • 05-20-07
            • 4805

            #40
            Slacker, thank you for your response and your comment about going from 256 to 300 being a tough jump.

            Since I posted the question, the line on Kurt Warner has moved up to 263 1/2 and the line on Big Ben has moved to 238 1/2.

            As far as Big Ben throwing for 300 or more yards, I would make quite a large wager on that if I could indeed get 9-1.

            I haven't done any real research on the statistics because I don't feel its necessary. I'm relying on the passing yard projections being accurate.

            Justin, if you're out there, I would sure appreciate your estimation of the fair value of either QB throwing for 300 yards or more solely based on the 238 yard (Big Ben) and 263 yard (Warner) projections.

            I just placed my 3rd max wager on this getting +240, +220 and now +200 @ Greek.

            Slacker, I'm doing those "cartwheels" right now but will probably be singing a different tune after the game.
            Comment
            • Albinorhino
              SBR Hustler
              • 10-10-08
              • 95

              #41
              How is first play from scrimmage a Run -130 or pass -110? I'm leaning towards a play on the Run.
              Comment
              • ryanspeer2001
                SBR MVP
                • 03-30-08
                • 3149

                #42
                Originally posted by [B
                Albinorhino[/B];1456439]How is first play from scrimmage a Run -130 or pass -110? I'm leaning towards a play on the Run.
                heh, my nickname from high school.
                Comment
                • Albinorhino
                  SBR Hustler
                  • 10-10-08
                  • 95

                  #43
                  Originally posted by ryanspeer2001
                  heh, my nickname from high school.

                  It is the petname my then girlfriend but now wife gave me.
                  Last edited by Albinorhino; 01-28-09, 10:32 AM.
                  Comment
                  • oakas
                    SBR MVP
                    • 02-17-07
                    • 1464

                    #44
                    This one caught my eye.

                    Will there be a blocked or missed field goal?

                    YES +120

                    What do you guys think of this one.
                    Comment
                    • Albinorhino
                      SBR Hustler
                      • 10-10-08
                      • 95

                      #45
                      Originally posted by oakas
                      This one caught my eye.

                      Will there be a blocked or missed field goal?

                      YES +120

                      What do you guys think of this one.

                      Rackers has been known for missing a few fgs, Reed seems pretty solid. Blocks are not that common. Maybe a small wager.
                      Comment
                      • Art Vandeleigh
                        SBR MVP
                        • 12-31-06
                        • 1494

                        #46
                        Roethlisberger over 1.5 rushing attempts -200 (Greek)
                        Roethlisberger over 8.5 rushing yards +115 (matchbook)

                        Roethlisberger rushed 7 times for 25 yards and 1 TD against Seattle in Super Bowl XL. Am I the only one who thinks he'll lay it on the line again in another Super Bowl, and go for it on his own if he has a chance and the situation is right?
                        Comment
                        • freeVICK
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 01-21-08
                          • 7114

                          #47
                          what do you guys think about james farrior over 8.5 total tackles
                          Comment
                          • RockBottom
                            SBR MVP
                            • 12-03-08
                            • 1448

                            #48
                            Warner -.5 passing td vs Big Ben +180 5 Dimes. If they score, it is probably by pass.
                            Comment
                            • UntilTheNDofTimE
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 05-29-08
                              • 9283

                              #49
                              I love " will both teams make a 33 yrd or longer field goal"
                              Yes +155
                              Comment
                              • oakas
                                SBR MVP
                                • 02-17-07
                                • 1464

                                #50
                                Originally posted by oakas
                                This one caught my eye.

                                Will there be a blocked or missed field goal?

                                YES +120

                                What do you guys think of this one.
                                2 more I really like.

                                Total Sacks OVER 5 -130

                                Will 3 Cardinals score (Kickers and 2 pt. conv. count) YES +125

                                Good luck.
                                Comment
                                • slacker00
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 10-06-05
                                  • 12262

                                  #51
                                  Originally posted by andywend
                                  Slacker, thank you for your response and your comment about going from 256 to 300 being a tough jump.

                                  Since I posted the question, the line on Kurt Warner has moved up to 263 1/2 and the line on Big Ben has moved to 238 1/2.

                                  As far as Big Ben throwing for 300 or more yards, I would make quite a large wager on that if I could indeed get 9-1.

                                  I haven't done any real research on the statistics because I don't feel its necessary. I'm relying on the passing yard projections being accurate.

                                  Justin, if you're out there, I would sure appreciate your estimation of the fair value of either QB throwing for 300 yards or more solely based on the 238 yard (Big Ben) and 263 yard (Warner) projections.

                                  I just placed my 3rd max wager on this getting +240, +220 and now +200 @ Greek.

                                  Slacker, I'm doing those "cartwheels" right now but will probably be singing a different tune after the game.
                                  Hey andywend, I was looking at the defensive stats for both teams. Pittsburgh has only allowed one 300 yard passer in 2 years (35 games), that was Tom Brady in his record breaking year last year. Arizona isn't bad either only allowing 3 passers over 300 yards in 19 games this year.
                                  Comment
                                  • alittlemoresound
                                    SBR Sharp
                                    • 12-14-08
                                    • 472

                                    #52
                                    prop bet i luv

                                    arizona to punt or score 1st.....

                                    punt -175
                                    score -even

                                    dam arizona aint gonna score in the superbowl before they punt at least once! steelers D is sick
                                    Comment
                                    • pimike
                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                      • 03-23-08
                                      • 37139

                                      #53
                                      SWEED TO SCORE A TD + 700



                                      this is a winner
                                      Comment
                                      • BigAL
                                        Restricted User
                                        • 01-27-09
                                        • 461

                                        #54
                                        Originally posted by slacker00
                                        Hey andywend, I was looking at the defensive stats for both teams. Pittsburgh has only allowed one 300 yard passer in 2 years (35 games), that was Tom Brady in his record breaking year last year. Arizona isn't bad either only allowing 3 passers over 300 yards in 19 games this year.

                                        rivers thru for 300+ in the steelers last game
                                        Comment
                                        • JGILL50
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 10-31-08
                                          • 836

                                          #55
                                          Originally posted by UntilTheNDofTimE
                                          I love " will both teams make a 33 yrd or longer field goal"
                                          Yes +155
                                          how about my man hockeytowns first made field goal over 32.5 yards thats anything from the 16yd line and out i love it
                                          Comment
                                          • oakas
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 02-17-07
                                            • 1464

                                            #56
                                            I think I found another good one.


                                            Will Ben Roeth throw an interception......YES -135
                                            Comment
                                            • betplom
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 09-20-06
                                              • 13444

                                              #57
                                              Will Arizona ever have the lead?

                                              No +191
                                              Comment
                                              • so im zach
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 01-07-09
                                                • 585

                                                #58
                                                Originally posted by Art Vandeleigh
                                                Roethlisberger over 1.5 rushing attempts -200 (Greek)
                                                Roethlisberger over 8.5 rushing yards +115 (matchbook)

                                                Roethlisberger rushed 7 times for 25 yards and 1 TD against Seattle in Super Bowl XL. Am I the only one who thinks he'll lay it on the line again in another Super Bowl, and go for it on his own if he has a chance and the situation is right?
                                                I'm a fan.
                                                Comment
                                                • so im zach
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 01-07-09
                                                  • 585

                                                  #59
                                                  Antrel Rolle Solo + Assisted Tackles OVER 4.5 -155
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Chi_archie
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 07-22-08
                                                    • 63167

                                                    #60
                                                    Originally posted by betplom
                                                    Will Arizona ever have the lead?

                                                    No +191

                                                    I don't like that too much.... I think Zona might come out quick and more then likely they'll have the ball first since Steelers usually defer if they win and zona usually takes the ball first if they win the toss
                                                    Comment
                                                    • donjuan
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 08-29-07
                                                      • 3993

                                                      #61
                                                      I hear betting any props at +100 or better is automatically a great bet during the Super Bowl. Fire away.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • JamesBrown
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 04-07-08
                                                        • 3860

                                                        #62
                                                        Will either team have at least 3 or more unanswered scores NO +160
                                                        First score of the game will be FIELD GOAL OR SAFETY +155
                                                        Team to score last will win the game NO +160
                                                        Edgerrin James will score at least one touchdown YES +350
                                                        Comment
                                                        • gizmo2431
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 01-11-08
                                                          • 971

                                                          #63
                                                          5011ROETHLISBERGER 1ST RUSH ATEMPT
                                                          o1½-120
                                                          Comment
                                                          • john22132
                                                            SBR Rookie
                                                            • 12-06-08
                                                            • 14

                                                            #64
                                                            Historical matchup - Total Passing Yards Ben Roethlisberger Super Bowl XL vs Ben Roethlisberger Super Bowl XLIII Ben Roethlisberger had 123 Passing Yards in Super Bowl XL. Player must start game for wagers to have action. Singles only.
                                                            (6112) Ben Roethlisberger Super Bowl XL +96½ (+130) Sat@11:00p
                                                            Competitor6113) Ben Roethlisberger Super Bowl XLIII

                                                            Seems like an easy one??
                                                            Comment
                                                            • freeVICK
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 01-21-08
                                                              • 7114

                                                              #65
                                                              will either team convert a 4th down -200?
                                                              Comment
                                                              • slacker00
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 10-06-05
                                                                • 12262

                                                                #66
                                                                Originally posted by slacker00
                                                                Hey andywend, I was looking at the defensive stats for both teams. Pittsburgh has only allowed one 300 yard passer in 2 years (35 games), that was Tom Brady in his record breaking year last year. Arizona isn't bad either only allowing 3 passers over 300 yards in 19 games this year.
                                                                Disregard these stats. I was taking raw passing numbers which subtracted sack yardage from passing yardage totals. I didn't realize that at the time. I'd redo my study, but I'm just too damn lazy at this moment.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • DwightShrute
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 01-17-09
                                                                  • 103157

                                                                  #67
                                                                  steelers -17.5 +350
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • slacker00
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 10-06-05
                                                                    • 12262

                                                                    #68
                                                                    Originally posted by john22132
                                                                    Historical matchup - Total Passing Yards Ben Roethlisberger Super Bowl XL vs Ben Roethlisberger Super Bowl XLIII Ben Roethlisberger had 123 Passing Yards in Super Bowl XL. Player must start game for wagers to have action. Singles only.
                                                                    (6112) Ben Roethlisberger Super Bowl XL +96½ (+130) Sat@11:00p
                                                                    Competitor6113) Ben Roethlisberger Super Bowl XLIII

                                                                    Seems like an easy one??
                                                                    Why the convoluted phrasing? It's the same as:
                                                                    Ben under 219 1/2 +130

                                                                    That's about the going rate right now.


                                                                    I like this one:
                                                                    Roethlisberger vs Warner - most gross passing yrds
                                                                    902 Kurt Warner -24½ passing yrds -120
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • jh0720
                                                                      SBR Rookie
                                                                      • 01-31-09
                                                                      • 36

                                                                      #69
                                                                      BetOnline has:
                                                                      total net passing yards:
                                                                      under 670.5 @ -165

                                                                      isn't this a very good pick or am i missing something?
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Smogs
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 12-31-08
                                                                        • 4173

                                                                        #70
                                                                        Originally posted by jh0720
                                                                        BetOnline has:
                                                                        total net passing yards:
                                                                        under 670.5 @ -165

                                                                        isn't this a very good pick or am i missing something?
                                                                        Isnt it total yards?

                                                                        My props are boldin's longest reception - under 21.5 yds
                                                                        I also like arizona rushing yds under 80 - i think they will test the passing out after the edge gets stopped early.

                                                                        Thats it so far, found it really hard but maybe warner under 260 yards, if he gets picked early or pressured we'll see a lot of 3 and outs

                                                                        My thinking is a pitts win and for that to happen it will have to be a low scoring game, a shootout = ari win
                                                                        Comment
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