Superbowl Props That Have Caught Your Eye

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  • SportsLockPicks
    SBR MVP
    • 12-03-07
    • 3386

    #1
    Superbowl Props That Have Caught Your Eye
    So far, the most lopsided value i see is in third down and short yardage recieving back Mewelde Moore at a whopping 40-1 to score the SuperBowls first TD, not bad. Yeah, parker is 4-1 and has the first two opportunities inside the ten, but this is just a good bet if you ask me...anyone else see anything worth throwing something on?
  • pimike
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 03-23-08
    • 37139

    #2
    My prop of the game is OVERTIME YES, I think were due here. I put 500to win 5,000 on it.
    Comment
    • SportsLockPicks
      SBR MVP
      • 12-03-07
      • 3386

      #3
      not these teams...10-1? thats what it pays..not worth it...philly/pitt i could see tying, but not here..good luck though
      Comment
      • rm18
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 09-20-05
        • 22291

        #4
        Originally posted by SportsLockPicks
        So far, the most lopsided value i see is in third down and short yardage recieving back Mewelde Moore at a whopping 40-1 to score the SuperBowls first TD, not bad. Yeah, parker is 4-1 and has the first two opportunities inside the ten, but this is just a good bet if you ask me...anyone else see anything worth throwing something on?
        I think Gary Russell has taken over the short yardage role from him.

        Moore also is questionable for the game as well looks like a trap.
        Comment
        • SportsLockPicks
          SBR MVP
          • 12-03-07
          • 3386

          #5
          i considered that, if he hadn't moore would be about 18-1
          Comment
          • seaborneq
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 09-08-06
            • 22556

            #6
            no score in any quarter +220 looks good to me. I hit that one in the Eagles-Pats SB also.
            Comment
            • slacker00
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 10-06-05
              • 12262

              #7
              Originally posted by SportsLockPicks
              Mewelde Moore at a whopping 40-1 to score the SuperBowls first TD
              I like it, if you feel like he'll play. That's the real gamble with this prop. Remember, he returns punts too. I was looking at this prop, but couldn't pull the trigger.



              Originally posted by pimike
              OVERTIME YES
              I need better odds than 10 to 1. Maybe 20 to 1 and I'll take it.



              Originally posted by seaborneq
              no score in any quarter +220 looks good to me. I hit that one in the Eagles-Pats SB also.
              I like it.
              Comment
              • SportsLockPicks
                SBR MVP
                • 12-03-07
                • 3386

                #8
                no score in any q should pay more than that..don't like it
                Comment
                • gizmo2431
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 01-11-08
                  • 971

                  #9
                  WHICH TEAM WILL RECORD THE FIRST QB SACK IN GAME?
                  Steelers EVEN
                  Comment
                  • t-bone
                    SBR MVP
                    • 03-18-08
                    • 3732

                    #10
                    Edgerin James UNDER 42.5 rushing yards -105........EASY
                    Comment
                    • Smogs
                      SBR MVP
                      • 12-31-08
                      • 4173

                      #11
                      Do we think that arizona will rush over 77 yards @ -110? I dont think they will as i feel the run will be ineffective when they are close in scores, but as soon as pitts start scoring i see warner having to throw.
                      Comment
                      • moconnor
                        SBR Rookie
                        • 01-14-09
                        • 8

                        #12
                        I agree - this is way off

                        Originally posted by gizmo2431
                        WHICH TEAM WILL RECORD THE FIRST QB SACK IN GAME?
                        Steelers EVEN
                        Regular Season Sacks: Steelers 51, Cardinals 31
                        Playoffs: Steelers 7, Cardinals 7

                        Looks like a clear advantage to Pitt here.
                        Comment
                        • seaborneq
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 09-08-06
                          • 22556

                          #13
                          Originally posted by SportsLockPicks
                          no score in any q should pay more than that..don't like it
                          How much do you want your props to pay? It is up to +250 now. I consider anything +200 a pretty good prop.
                          Comment
                          • Portlander
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 09-22-08
                            • 292

                            #14
                            Originally posted by seaborneq
                            How much do you want your props to pay? It is up to +250 now. I consider anything +200 a pretty good prop.

                            Well if the "true" odds should be giving you +500 would +220 still be a good bet? I think if you look at the % of games in the season that went into overtime.. if you could get an average, you could get an idea of what it should pay, compare the likelyhood of the teams in question and then judge if you have a good deal... (and I dont know.. maybe +220 is good)

                            If you are just having fun playing props.. then take whatever sounds good..
                            Comment
                            • Portlander
                              SBR Sharp
                              • 09-22-08
                              • 292

                              #15
                              Originally posted by moconnor
                              Regular Season Sacks: Steelers 51, Cardinals 31
                              Playoffs: Steelers 7, Cardinals 7

                              Looks like a clear advantage to Pitt here.
                              I like the sacks, but will the Cards offensive line carry them through a few posessions? If they last one set, some of your advantage would be gone..

                              If you are getting it for even odds though it is hard to see how you could go too wrong.. I might take some of that action myself.. These things are fun to root for..
                              Last edited by Portlander; 01-25-09, 09:36 PM.
                              Comment
                              • durito
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 07-03-06
                                • 13173

                                #16
                                Originally posted by moconnor
                                Regular Season Sacks: Steelers 51, Cardinals 31
                                Playoffs: Steelers 7, Cardinals 7

                                Looks like a clear advantage to Pitt here.

                                at the very least you have to look at sacks allowed too
                                Comment
                                • seaborneq
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 09-08-06
                                  • 22556

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by Portlander
                                  Well if the "true" odds should be giving you +500 would +220 still be a good bet? I think if you look at the % of games in the season that went into overtime.. if you could get an average, you could get an idea of what it should pay, compare the likelyhood of the teams in question and then judge if you have a good deal... (and I dont know.. maybe +220 is good)

                                  If you are just having fun playing props.. then take whatever sounds good..

                                  What does overtime have to do with this?
                                  Comment
                                  • andywend
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 05-20-07
                                    • 4805

                                    #18
                                    There is one prop offered that far outshines the rest.

                                    By far and away the best prop I have seen across the entire internet:

                                    Will there be a 300 yard passer on either team?

                                    I took the YES @ +240 and again @ +220 for the max each time.

                                    Warner over/under passing yards is around 256 while Big Ben's total is 233.

                                    What am I missing here as it appears to me that this prop should be priced close to even money.
                                    Comment
                                    • pimike
                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                      • 03-23-08
                                      • 37139

                                      #19
                                      Neither will go over the orginal line, so that bet looks bad to me.
                                      Comment
                                      • andywend
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 05-20-07
                                        • 4805

                                        #20
                                        Your opinion that neither quarterback will go over their posted total for passing yards isn't really relevant in determining whether or not the bet I mentioned has value.

                                        Perhaps Justin or one of the other regulars can chime in on what a fair line would be for either QB to have 300 or more passing yards when their projected totals are 233 and 256 respectively?
                                        Comment
                                        • moconnor
                                          SBR Rookie
                                          • 01-14-09
                                          • 8

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by durito
                                          at the very least you have to look at sacks allowed too
                                          Cards Sacks allowed Regular Season: 28
                                          Steelers Sacks Allowed Regular Season: 49

                                          Cards SA Playoffs : 3
                                          Steelers SA Playoffs: 5

                                          Now the line looks about right although I still like the Steelers here with the matchups involved. Pitt will not be concerned about stopping the run because the know that they can stop the Arizona run game. Their focus will be on disrupting the Cards passing game with pressure. The Cards will have to worry about both the run and the pass and will not focus on one over the other in preparation. The Steelers will come in on the attack against Warner.
                                          Comment
                                          • pimike
                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                            • 03-23-08
                                            • 37139

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by andywend
                                            Your opinion that neither quarterback will go over their posted total for passing yards isn't really relevant in determining whether or not the bet I mentioned has value.

                                            Perhaps Justin or one of the other regulars can chime in on what a fair line would be for either QB to have 300 or more passing yards when their projected totals are 233 and 256 respectively?
                                            If you don't understand then I'm sure Justin will not be able to help you.

                                            What part of no one throwing more than 300 yard don't you understand?

                                            Not trying to be rude, but you posted your play and asked what we thought, I told you what I thought, know you say my opnion isn't relevant. Maybe I am missing something, but not sure I am.

                                            Good luck
                                            Comment
                                            • pimike
                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                              • 03-23-08
                                              • 37139

                                              #23
                                              This one may have some value


                                              WILL EDGERRIN JAMES SCORE A TOUCHDOWN IN THE GAME?

                                              YES - +350
                                              Comment
                                              • Portlander
                                                SBR Sharp
                                                • 09-22-08
                                                • 292

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by seaborneq
                                                What does overtime have to do with this?
                                                Ah sorry was looking at that "no overtime" prop, but the concept of figuring out true odds still applys.
                                                Comment
                                                • pimike
                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                  • 03-23-08
                                                  • 37139

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by Portlander
                                                  Ah sorry was looking at that "no overtime" prop, but the concept of figuring out true odds still applys.
                                                  No O/T is like 3300 for 100 I like plus a 1000 will be O/T
                                                  Comment
                                                  • andywend
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 05-20-07
                                                    • 4805

                                                    #26
                                                    Mike, I wasn't asking your opinion on whether you like the over/under on the individual quarterback passing yard totals as that opinion has nothing to do with whether or not the wager I mentioned has value.

                                                    Once again, I'll ask the question:

                                                    What is fair value on either quarterback passing for 300 or more yards in the Super Bowl when their projected totals are 233 (Big Ben) and 256 (Warner)?

                                                    +240 seems way too high on this
                                                    Comment
                                                    • pimike
                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                      • 03-23-08
                                                      • 37139

                                                      #27
                                                      I noticed ther was a wager on over 1 missed field goals by both teams is +450, that looks like something I may take a shot on.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • reno cool
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 07-02-08
                                                        • 3567

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by andywend
                                                        Mike, I wasn't asking your opinion on whether you like the over/under on the individual quarterback passing yard totals as that opinion has nothing to do with whether or not the wager I mentioned has value.

                                                        Once again, I'll ask the question:

                                                        What is fair value on either quarterback passing for 300 or more yards in the Super Bowl when their projected totals are 233 (Big Ben) and 256 (Warner)?

                                                        +240 seems way too high on this

                                                        This is an interesting question. I think you'd better off looking at how often these teams passed and allowed for over 300 rather than the avg. Then you might need regress to the mean and god knows what else. The avg alone tells me nothing.
                                                        Last edited by reno cool; 01-27-09, 06:26 AM.
                                                        bird bird da bird's da word
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Dark Horse
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 12-14-05
                                                          • 13764

                                                          #29
                                                          Last score of the game not a TD +160

                                                          I took that because it's going to be a game-deciding FG.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Rufus
                                                            SBR High Roller
                                                            • 03-28-08
                                                            • 107

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by durito
                                                            at the very least you have to look at sacks allowed too
                                                            sacks allowed is a far more significant predictor
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Rufus
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 03-28-08
                                                              • 107

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by pimike
                                                              I noticed ther was a wager on over 1 missed field goals by both teams is +450, that looks like something I may take a shot on.
                                                              If you were getting +450 on over 0.5 missed FGs, maybe, but you need 2 missed field goals to win your bet. The two kickers have missed 6 or 7 FGs combined all season. Lets assume that they've been a little on the lucky side and that they should have missed 8 or 9 FGs. This still implies a price of -920 or -715 on under 1 missed FG, depending on which you use. I have a large bet on the under here at -550.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • SamsNCharge99
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 10-22-08
                                                                • 41242

                                                                #32
                                                                there are like over 200 props for the game, for players, teams, game, its CRAZY
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Chi_archie
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 07-22-08
                                                                  • 63167

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by andywend
                                                                  Mike, I wasn't asking your opinion on whether you like the over/under on the individual quarterback passing yard totals as that opinion has nothing to do with whether or not the wager I mentioned has value.

                                                                  Once again, I'll ask the question:

                                                                  What is fair value on either quarterback passing for 300 or more yards in the Super Bowl when their projected totals are 233 (Big Ben) and 256 (Warner)?

                                                                  +240 seems way too high on this
                                                                  I think the Steelers have allowed over 200 yards passing NOT 300
                                                                  like 1 time maybe 2 times this year... Peyton Manning is the only one I know of.

                                                                  heck the steelers have only allowed over 300 yards total offense once or twice this year...

                                                                  Ben doesn't pass for over 300 usually unless they are coming from behind in a shoot out
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Smogs
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 12-31-08
                                                                    • 4173

                                                                    #34
                                                                    One caught my eye - boldin's longest reception, under 21.5 yards @ -120. i dont think the steelers will allow any more yards than that. I havent looked at boldins stats tbh but it caught my eye, ill look into it further
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • seaborneq
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 09-08-06
                                                                      • 22556

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Fitz +700 to score the first TD of the game. Love it and did it.
                                                                      Comment
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