My first day at SBR........

**Dollars2Donuts** · 03-14-13, 10:22 AM

168514859-1	3/14/13 11:22am	$100.00	$188.00	Pending	3/14/13 7:05pm Reduced Hockey 3 Chicago Blackhawks -1½ +188* <SMALL>vs</SMALL> Columbus Blue Jackets
168514859-2	3/14/13 11:22am	$162.00	$100.00	Pending	3/14/13 7:05pm Reduced Hockey 3 Chicago Blackhawks -162* <SMALL>vs</SMALL> Columbus Blue Jackets
168514859-3	3/14/13 11:22am	$50.00	$110.00	Pending	3/14/13 7:05pm Reduced Hockey 5 Pittsburgh Penguins -1½ +220* <SMALL>vs</SMALL> Toronto Maple Leafs
168514859-4	3/14/13 11:22am	$108.00	$100.00	Pending	3/14/13 7:05pm Reduced Hockey 5 Pittsburgh Penguins/Toronto Maple Leafs Over 6 -108*
168514859-5	3/14/13 11:22am	$50.00	$116.00	Pending	3/14/13 7:35pm Reduced Hockey 10 Tampa Bay Lightning -1½ +232* <SMALL>vs</SMALL> New York Islanders
168514859-6	3/14/13 11:22am	$120.00	$100.00	Pending	3/14/13 7:35pm Reduced Hockey 10 Tampa Bay Lightning -120* <SMALL>vs</SMALL> New York Islanders
168514859-7	3/14/13 11:22am	$120.00	$100.00	Pending	3/14/13 8:05pm Reduced Hockey 11 New York Rangers/Winnipeg Jets Over 5 -120*
168514859-8	3/14/13 11:22am	$50.00	$115.00	Pending	3/14/13 8:05pm Reduced Hockey 16 St. Louis Blues -1½ +230* <SMALL>vs</SMALL> Phoenix Coyotes
168514859-9	3/14/13 11:22am	$133.00	$100.00	Pending	3/14/13 8:05pm Reduced Hockey 16 St. Louis Blues -133* <SMALL>vs</SMALL> Phoenix Coyotes
168514859-10	3/14/13 11:22am	$102.00	$100.00	Pending	3/14/13 10:35pm Reduced Hockey 21 Los Angeles Kings/San Jose Sharks Over 5 -102*

**Dollars2Donuts** · 03-14-13, 10:27 AM

168515250-1

3/14/13 11:26am

$50.00

$70.00

Pending

3/14/13 7:05pm NHL Hockey 5 Pittsburgh Penguins Over 3½ +140* vs Toronto Maple Leafs

168515384-1

3/14/13 11:27am

$132.00

$100.00

Pending

3/14/13 7:05pm Reduced Hockey 5 Pittsburgh Penguins -132* vs Toronto Maple Leafs

**Dollars2Donuts** · 03-14-13, 10:33 AM

Today's POD:

168515959-1

3/14/13 11:32am

$270.00

$250.00

Pending

3/14/13 10:35pm Reduced Basketball 703 New York Knicks/Portland Trailblazers Under 194½ -108*

**Dollars2Donuts** · 03-14-13, 10:47 AM

168517813-1

3/14/13 11:47am

$63.50

$50.00

Pending

3/14/13 1:05pm Reduced Baseball 910 Toronto Blue Jays -127* vs New York Yankees (Fixed Price)

**TheMoneyShot** · 03-14-13, 10:50 AM

What is this thread all about? Donuts?

**Dollars2Donuts** · 03-14-13, 11:01 AM

Originally posted by TheMoneyShot

What is this thread all about? Donuts?

Ssshhhh, don't tell anyone! We baked goods addicts need our privacy!

D2D

**Dollars2Donuts** · 03-14-13, 11:10 AM

168521848-1	3/14/13 12:10pm	$103.00	$100.00	Pending	3/14/13 2:25pm Reduced Basketball 723 Penn State/Michigan Under 132 -103*
168521848-2	3/14/13 12:10pm	$103.00	$100.00	Pending	3/14/13 6:30pm Reduced Basketball 725 Nebraska/Purdue Under 120 -103*
168521848-3	3/14/13 12:10pm	$107.00	$100.00	Pending	3/14/13 8:55pm Reduced Basketball 727 Northwestern/Iowa Under 123½ -107*

**Dfjay9** · 03-14-13, 11:12 AM

Do you use a model or trends for your unders?

**Dollars2Donuts** · 03-14-13, 11:22 AM

Originally posted by Dfjay9

Do you use a model or trends for your unders?

I use models for other things.....although I like my women with a little more meat on them......

Ok, on a more serious note, I use my brain....watching the games, psychology and most importantly.....feel.

**StevenSuarez** · 03-14-13, 11:57 AM

You can never go wrong with Big Ten unders. GL today pal.

**Dollars2Donuts** · 03-14-13, 12:00 PM

168527887-1

3/14/13 1:00pm

$60.00

$78.00

Pending

3/14/13 7:00pm World Classic Baseball 931 Dominican Republic 1st 5 Innings +130* vs United States (Fixed Price)

**Dollars2Donuts** · 03-14-13, 12:05 PM

Originally posted by StevenSuarez

You can never go wrong with Big Ten unders. GL today pal.

Thanks SS, it has been a challenging week.....winning more wagers than I am losing, but 4 of the last 5 days we are down units.....nothing huge, but this is the first time in three months where I am second guessing myself in tough spots and instead of making these games NO PLAYS, I am hitting the wrong side.

Looks like today is going to be another rough start in Minny....and I may lower my units bet tomorrow.....

GL to you and to e1

D2D

**Coreos** · 03-14-13, 01:19 PM

Am I seeing things wrong or is it really Bluejays 15 - 1 at the top of the 3rd??? Figures I would miss this one haha.

**geebert74** · 03-14-13, 01:58 PM

Nope, thats the score...

**2178ice** · 03-14-13, 02:33 PM

Ima go with your POD today hopefully its a winner

! Thanks for the pick! Good luck today bud!

**Dollars2Donuts** · 03-14-13, 02:41 PM

Not going well........nobody is missing a shot. This is kind of a joke....no defense in a game like this.....ugly.

168521848-1

3/14/13 12:10pm

$103.00

$100.00

Pending

3/14/13 2:25pm Reduced Basketball 723 Penn State/Michigan Under 132 -103*

No way this game stays under.......

....on pace to go over by 30+ points

Looks like another 0-2 start today.......

**alamo** · 03-14-13, 03:16 PM

Seems right now like all the small plays are cashing (Jays going to win easily) but anytime we stake over 100 their going down. Frustrating for sure.

**Dollars2Donuts** · 03-14-13, 03:51 PM

Adding:

168577461-1

3/14/13 4:51pm

$110.25

$105.00

Pending

3/14/13 5:30pm Reduced Basketball 771 Texas State/Denver Under 130½ -105*

**Dollars2Donuts** · 03-14-13, 03:53 PM

Originally posted by alamo

Seems right now like all the small plays are cashing (Jays going to win easily) but anytime we stake over 100 their going down. Frustrating for sure.

Yep...if I was tailing myself I would be betting the exact same units on every play....we haven't had a day under .500 in the last two weeks....

1-2 start to today, and yes, lost on the two bigger plays.....hopefully the rest go a little easier on us!

**Jayvegas420** · 03-14-13, 05:42 PM

Which hockey game is your favourite?
Gun to your head.

**fitguy67** · 03-14-13, 06:28 PM

Originally posted by Jayvegas420

Which hockey game is your favourite?
Gun to your head.

the one risking the most $ would be a good way to see this...

in keeping with the "put your money where your ~~mouth is~~ confidence lies" principle

(if there was a tie for first...rather than risk "Murphy's Law" (you kow, you keep the losers and dump the winners)...I'd divide up my desired stake between the tied candidates)

**fitguy67** · 03-14-13, 07:36 PM

Originally posted by Dollars2Donuts

Yep...if I was tailing myself I would be betting the exact same units on every play....we haven't had a day under .500 in the last two weeks....

1-2 start to today, and yes, lost on the two bigger plays.....hopefully the rest go a little easier on us!

that is a key ingredient to LONGEVITY...terrible (and wonderful) runs come and go leading to unpleasant (and pleasant) periods...whether the ebb and $-flow thru time is bearable or not depends entirely on bet-sizing

bet-size variation FOR SURE magnifies the $-size of each swing (both up and down)...magnifying variance...thus magnifying the "risk of ruin"=the probability of a down-swing doing serious damange to the account

bet-variation MAY EITHER increase or decrease the expected growth-rate of the account (depending on how well you "cap yourself"=guage your own confidence
________________
accordingly, when i take picks from (ie. tail) any source, I totally ignore quoted differences in bet size...
______________

To further thwart the enemy, varaiance...there's one other thing you can do...

bet EVERYTHING (BOTH DOGS AND FAVORITES) TO WIN (not everything to risk as most Europeans do...not faves to win and dogs to risk as Americans do)...but EVERYTHING to win...THE EXACT SAME AMOUNT=1 UNIT

this keeps your bet on dogs...which are much more likely (higher odds=lower winning %=higher losing %) to go on an extended slump...
it keeps your dog bets smaller so the dog-losses contribute lighter to any downswing...

____________

I just throw this out there to think about...
It's hard enough to have a winning night...let alone to have a night where the RIGHT ones win.

Mr. Murphy=the head of the gambling-god union...just loves a card with a big "multiple" between smallest and biggest bets...i picture the gambling gods looking down on our bets like each one is a different "mole" in the Whack-a-mole" game...and as the number of units on a play increases these guys' interest in whacking them rises proportionally...the only way to thwart this--and the unnecessary additional variance it causes--is to send every bet ("mole") into the chute with the same weight

Doing this reduces the upswing when the gods smile on the bet-sizing choices...but, more importantly to me, it also reduces the size of the downslide when the bet-sizing choices aren't "clicking" .

________________

i just put this out there to consider...it's certainly not THE way...but it is the lowest-variance way to handle any given set of bets...

whether it's for you depends on your tolerance for variance...if you're super-chicken lyk me...no better way to go than play EVERYTHING to TO WIN ONE UNIT

**Dollars2Donuts** · 03-14-13, 08:30 PM

I am getting killed all over the place. When I left this morning I had a funny feeling all day.......almost considered doing a full board reversal. I kind of knew that this would happen.....instincts I guess?

This will be my biggest losing day in the last three months.....and I should have known it was coming.

I hope people faded me today.......

**Dollars2Donuts** · 03-14-13, 08:41 PM

Wow...got lucky with a last second Pittsburgh goal.....that will slightly (and I really mean slightly) soften tonight's blow.....

**DocZ** · 03-14-13, 08:43 PM

Penguins just hooked you up!

**DocZ** · 03-14-13, 08:43 PM

You beat me to it.

**Dollars2Donuts** · 03-14-13, 08:46 PM

Hawks SO win to break even on that game.....a little luck coming back our way......still in VERY tough all over the board.

**fitguy67** · 03-14-13, 08:54 PM

Originally posted by Dollars2Donuts

Hawks SO win to break even on that game.....a little luck coming back our way......still in VERY tough all over the board.

and in the last few minutes in Toronto...a LOT of nicely-timed "positive variance" comes thru for Pittsburg...and the SDCIG (Secret Donut-Cooperative Investment Group)

**Dollars2Donuts** · 03-14-13, 09:03 PM

Originally posted by fitguy67

and in the last few minutes in Toronto...a LOT of nicely-timed "positive variance" comes thru for Pittsburg...and the SDCIG (Secret Donut-Cooperative Investment Group)

LOL, I like it....but even with those tonight is still not going well....Tampa Bay hurts (they have cost me too much so far this season, when will I learn??), the WPG/NYR game won't go over unless NTR tie it in the 3rd.....

The UNDER is looking good in the DR/USA WBC game I guess....so that's a positive!!

**DocZ** · 03-14-13, 09:21 PM

Let's go, 3 up 3 down and wrap up the Dom-USA game.

**Coreos** · 03-14-13, 09:24 PM

And the Blues have scored again, so that helps too.

**fitguy67** · 03-14-13, 09:26 PM

In-the-nick of time deliveries of good fortune seem to bustin' out all over now...

STL went up 2-then-3 goals and our puckline seems reasonably safe...

and the DR scored 2 (so far) in the top of the 9th...

and let's not forget that Iowa looks solid to ring the dinner bell on the +160 5-team teaser

**Dollars2Donuts** · 03-14-13, 09:32 PM

Congrats to the DR.......

What a beautifully played game.....I may be a 40 year old, white collar Canadian.....but I think I just fell in love with a country.

Well done

**fitguy67** · 03-14-13, 09:33 PM

edit: failed "reverse jinx" attempt...result: empty-netter, not the tying goal we needed

**Coreos** · 03-14-13, 09:36 PM

Originally posted by fitguy67

Reverse Jinx Alert!!!

It's too bad that it is absolutely impossible for a team to score a goal very late in the third period like this, and force overtime...I mean, I don't think anything like that has ever happened in the history of ice hockey...maybe the Rangers will be the first "modern era" team to do so...

Well it almost worked - but it was the Jets that scored.