Nunya's Completely Unrelated to MMA betting Value Bus.

**Vaughany** · 10-23-12, 06:23 AM

Very nice

**PunisherIND** · 10-23-12, 09:01 AM

nunya, thanks again for putting me on to that intrade site. never heard of it before, and then last night one of the analysts on cnn mentioned the site (i think his point was that the debate did not have any effect on the market, according to intrade).

anyway, some more lines of note on 5d

Gary Johnson popular vote over 0.49999% -280 (fair value -395)
Republicans control the Senate +425 (fair value +320)
Colorado Amendment 64 won't pass -110 (fair value -120)

**PunisherIND** · 10-23-12, 09:13 AM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

Colorado Amendment 64 won't pass -110 (fair value -120)

spoke too soon. +125 now.

**PunisherIND** · 10-23-12, 09:18 AM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

anyway, some more lines of note on 5d

Gary Johnson popular vote over 0.49999% -280 (fair value -395)
Republicans control the Senate +425 (fair value +320)
Colorado Amendment 64 won't pass -110 (fair value -120)

lol limited to $50 on the gary johnson line and $25 on the colorado amendment.

nunya must be at $25 and $10. lol.

**NunyaBidness** · 10-23-12, 11:05 AM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

nunya, thanks again for putting me on to that intrade site. never heard of it before, and then last night one of the analysts on cnn mentioned the site (i think his point was that the debate did not have any effect on the market, according to intrade).

anyway, some more lines of note on 5d

Gary Johnson popular vote over 0.49999% -280 (fair value -395)
Republicans control the Senate +425 (fair value +320)
Colorado Amendment 64 won't pass -110 (fair value -120)

Hmmm, I've never checked, but did Intrade leave the market open during the debate? Every sportsbook seems to take the lines down right before. Either way, Romney's actually gone up on intrade since then.

Laying off the Gary Johnson line myself. I thought about it for a while, and I would think Intrade bettors would be above the norm in libertarian tendancies and might be pushing that line out of whack. Either way there is very little activity in that market.

Love the Colorado 64 bet though.

**PunisherIND** · 10-23-12, 11:13 AM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Hmmm, I've never checked, but did Intrade leave the market open during the debate? Every sportsbook seems to take the lines down right before. Either way, Romney's actually gone up on intrade since then.

Laying off the Gary Johnson line myself. I thought about it for a while, and I would think Intrade bettors would be above the norm in libertarian tendancies and might be pushing that line out of whack. Either way there is very little activity in that market.

Love the Colorado 64 bet though.

i wasnt checking, but the guy on cnn said there were some spikes on intrade during the debates, but the closing number was the same as the opening number.

**v1y** · 10-23-12, 12:25 PM

I can not beleive i played obama at -240 a month ago. god i'm a penetrating square.

**PunisherIND** · 10-23-12, 01:06 PM

Originally posted by v1y

I can not beleive i played obama at -240 a month ago. god i'm a penetrating square.

lol, i share these sentiments.

but i am partly consoled by the fact that i got romney to win FL at -120.

**NunyaBidness** · 10-23-12, 01:06 PM

I've got some down at worse prices than that. After the 47% thing it looked like it was Lockbama.

**PunisherIND** · 10-23-12, 01:27 PM

money is coming back on obama a little bit. moved from -190 to -220 on 5d this afternoon.

**omalley21** · 10-23-12, 05:31 PM

free harvard stats course -> http://www.extension.harvard.edu/ope...ng-probability

**NunyaBidness** · 10-23-12, 05:39 PM

There's this one too.

https://www.coursera.org/course/stats1

**Beelzebubzy** · 10-23-12, 09:26 PM

any value in Demi Lovato group to win X Factor at +400

**Vaughany** · 10-24-12, 03:24 AM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

There's this one too.
https://www.coursera.org/course/stats1

Just a moment...

http://www.udacity.com/overview/Course/st101/CourseRev/1

**Vaughany** · 10-24-12, 09:08 AM

Who do y'all think wins the WSOP Final table this wknd? Im thinkin Greg Merson takes it...has the story after bouncing back from drug addiction!

**NunyaBidness** · 10-24-12, 11:06 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Who do y'all think wins the WSOP Final table this wknd? Im thinkin Greg Merson takes it...has the story after bouncing back from drug addiction!

No opinion here, haven't watched any coverage this year and don't think I've ever played with or even heard of any of these guys.

I have a bet on the winner to be under 27 years old at +125, but that was before the ME started, and I have no idea who I'm even rooting for now! Hell, it could be a loss already or a lock!

**Vaughany** · 10-24-12, 11:20 AM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

No opinion here, haven't watched any coverage this year and don't think I've ever played with or even heard of any of these guys.

I have a bet on the winner to be under 27 years old at +125, but that was before the ME started, and I have no idea who I'm even rooting for now! Hell, it could be a loss already or a lock!

ha I think it's split about 50/50 maybe one or two more under 27! Jesse Sylvia who was chip leader is 26, pretty sure Salaburu, Russell Thomas, Merson, and Balsiger are all under 27...Balsiger is 21 I think. I've been watchin the highlights of final 30 or so during my lunch breaks at work...been some entertaining stuff

**NunyaBidness** · 10-24-12, 11:29 AM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

anyway, some more lines of note on 5d
Colorado Amendment 64 won't pass -110 (fair value -120)

Interesting this line is moving the opposite direction of the intrade line, up to +140 now, and its on the cover page for 5dimes with a big marijuana leaf. Strange.

**NunyaBidness** · 10-24-12, 11:31 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

ha I think it's split about 50/50 maybe one or two more under 27! Jesse Sylvia who was chip leader is 26, pretty sure Salaburu, Russell Thomas, Merson, and Balsiger are all under 27...Balsiger is 21 I think. I've been watchin the highlights of final 30 or so during my lunch breaks at work...been some entertaining stuff

Sounds like I'm a pretty smart capper, then! I stopped watching TV poker years ago, the players were so terrible, watching them get crowned as the champion was frustrating.

**NunyaBidness** · 10-24-12, 11:54 AM

At this point Obama at intrade is arbable against every online site. Going to be wiring funds today.

**PunisherIND** · 10-24-12, 12:09 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Interesting this line is moving the opposite direction of the intrade line, up to +140 now, and its on the cover page for 5dimes with a big marijuana leaf. Strange.

im glad you brought this up. i noticed this yesterday when the line moved to +130, but intrade was going the other direction. i made a mental note to ask you about it, but then i smoked some weed and forgot.

not sure what to make of it, but i did add some more at +130.

**PunisherIND** · 10-24-12, 12:22 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

At this point Obama at intrade is arbable against every online site. Going to be wiring funds today.

market manipulation?? i was reading about this yesterday. seems there was some funny business going on.

**NunyaBidness** · 10-24-12, 12:58 PM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

market manipulation?? i was reading about this yesterday. seems there was some funny business going on.

link?

Only thing I can figure is it's a different set of guys making wagers in different spots. Perhaps the online guys tend to be more liberal and pot-heads. I trust the Intrade numbers to be closer to the truth simply due to the volume involved.

I can't really think of a way you could manipulate these markets as they're backed by real dollars on both sides. If the price was moved artificially, it would get pounded back to parity.

Perhaps pinny has decided they want exposure on Romney and the other books are simply falling in line. Pinny's limits on this are 20k, so they should be getting pounded.

Have to say, I'm completely uncomfortable in my Obama position.

**PunisherIND** · 10-24-12, 01:25 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

link?

Only thing I can figure is it's a different set of guys making wagers in different spots. Perhaps the online guys tend to be more liberal and pot-heads. I trust the Intrade numbers to be closer to the truth simply due to the volume involved.

I can't really think of a way you could manipulate these markets as they're backed by real dollars on both sides. If the price was moved artificially, it would get pounded back to parity.

Perhaps pinny has decided they want exposure on Romney and the other books are simply falling in line. Pinny's limits on this are 20k, so they should be getting pounded.

Have to say, I'm completely uncomfortable in my Obama position.

this is basically what the articles say -- that there might have been short term manipulation, but once the market gets wind that the movement wasnt based on any real news, they will take advantage of the artifical movement.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/10/23/how-to-manipulate-prediction-markets-and-boost-mitt-romneys-fortunes/

Should Presidential Campaigns Spend More Money Manipulating Intrade?

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/10/should-presidential-campaigns-spend-more-money-manipulating-intrade/264000/

Could a campaign re-direct their tens of millions of marketing dollars to bid up the candidate's stock price for a final month to bolster his Comeback Narrative?

**NunyaBidness** · 10-24-12, 01:51 PM

Interesting articles, thanks. If anything, it indicates that intrade numbers are more accurate that one would assume.

**Vaughany** · 10-24-12, 02:09 PM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

Lol No worries. I'm not one of these guys who will give you shit if it doesn't hit. But I played it tiny anyway.

1-0 up after 20mins

**NunyaBidness** · 10-24-12, 02:56 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

1-0 up after 20mins

Now it's tied! You owe me $100!!!!!

**Vaughany** · 10-24-12, 03:05 PM

Actually they are losing

**NunyaBidness** · 10-24-12, 03:10 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Actually they are losing

Now you owe me $200!!!!!

**PunisherIND** · 10-24-12, 03:22 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

1-0 up after 20mins

lol vaughany, next time keep you trap shut until the game is over!

**Vaughany** · 10-24-12, 03:25 PM

Apologies boys! Jinxed the play big time..this is an absolute shocker

**Vaughany** · 10-24-12, 03:26 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Now you owe me $200!!!!!

lol

**Vaughany** · 10-24-12, 03:27 PM

Worst thing is my four other plays are all gonna hit but still gonna be in the red because of this one

**PunisherIND** · 10-24-12, 04:13 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Interesting this line is moving the opposite direction of the intrade line, up to +140 now, and its on the cover page for 5dimes with a big marijuana leaf. Strange.

intrade has this at 50-50 now. still value on NOT getting passed at +140. however, in light of yesterday's movement, the line might actually get better.

**NunyaBidness** · 10-24-12, 04:14 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Worst thing is my four other plays are all gonna hit but still gonna be in the red because of this one

Quit your crying, I lost ONE HUNDRED DOLLARS. That shit doesn't grow on trees. I don't even no what this game they were playing is. I trusted you, I believed in you, I counted on you. How could you let this happen to my TWO THOUSAND NICKELS!?!!?!?!??

I gave you a 2% edge on the Debate prop for $50 limits and this is how you repay me?

I hope you think about me and my TEN-THOUSAND PENNIES when you go to bed tonight. I know I will be.