2012-13 NFL picks

**No coincidences** · 01-13-13, 06:53 PM

Originally posted by brizo42

Just bad luck. You make this same play 100 times and it will hit 55+ times, no worries.

You've obviously never followed the totals I play.

**BigDofBA** · 01-13-13, 07:12 PM

So glad I only went one unit on Houston.

I feel stupid for just not taking the over. Oh well.

**No coincidences** · 01-13-13, 07:14 PM

Originally posted by BigDofBA

So glad I only went one unit on Houston.

I feel stupid for just not taking the over. Oh well.

This was a 10-3 game with 4 minutes left in the second quarter, believe it or not.

**No coincidences** · 01-13-13, 07:19 PM

That was a classic end to this under debacle. LOL.

That's 45 points in the last 21 minutes of action -- or a pace of 131 points over an entire 60-minute game.

**No coincidences** · 01-13-13, 07:20 PM

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

Fukkin Coin reading them lines like a Professor,

I'm proud of you man!

You are clueless.

**PAULYPOKER** · 01-13-13, 07:21 PM

You act like this doesn't ever happen

Fact is,

this happens roughly 50% of the time............

**No coincidences** · 01-13-13, 07:23 PM

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

You act like this doesn't ever happen

Fact is,

this happens roughly 50% of the time............

You being wrong? No, it's much more than that.

**PAULYPOKER** · 01-13-13, 07:25 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

You are clueless.

Am I?

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

1/13/2013 4:30 PM NFL Football 115 Houston Texans/New England Patriots* Over 26 -110 for 2nd Half

1/13/2013 4:30 PM NFL Football 115 Houston...

**No coincidences** · 01-13-13, 07:26 PM

2-2, -0.69U today
105-83, +39.73U thread

**BigDofBA** · 01-13-13, 07:27 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

That was a classic end to this under debacle. LOL.

That's 45 points in the last 21 minutes of action -- or a pace of 131 points over an entire 60-minute game.

I've come to the realization that you can't figure up "pace" on totals. The NBA is the worst. Teams score 65 one quarter and 34 the next.

I had a "rare" good weekend betting NBA totals and the majority of them looked like sure losers yet they miraculously hit. What's even funnier is that the totals that looked like sure winners lost.

It's really not over until its over. It's gotten to the point where it's almost better when I'm way off of the pace because then I'm pleasantly surprised instead of pissed off that I just lost a bet that looked like a sure winner.

**No coincidences** · 01-13-13, 07:28 PM

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

Am I?

1/13/2013 4:30 PM NFL Football 115 Houston...

Keep bumping your winners, ignoring your losers and playing mind games with your bullshit locks/jinxes/reverses. That's all you can do and all you are good at. Now here's your daily 2 points. Hopefully someone can lend you 3 more so that you can wager on a late NBA game. Go away.

**BigDofBA** · 01-13-13, 07:37 PM

No F*cking way. I grabbed Houston +10.5 at 5dimes when it was 7-3 in the first quarter.

That two point conversion was huge. I had already given up.

**PAULYPOKER** · 01-13-13, 07:48 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Keep bumping your winners, ignoring your losers and playing mind games with your bullshit locks/jinxes/reverses. That's all you can do and all you are good at. Now here's your daily 2 points. Hopefully someone can lend you 3 more so that you can wager on a late NBA game. Go away.

**No coincidences** · 01-20-13, 02:39 PM

SF -185 (9.25U to win 5)

**PAULYPOKER** · 01-20-13, 02:43 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

SF -185 (9.25U to win 5)

I don't trust them on the ATS either,

good play........

**Clutch24** · 01-20-13, 02:49 PM

Better value -2.5 -155 No coin

**PAULYPOKER** · 01-20-13, 02:53 PM

Originally posted by Clutch24

Better value -2.5 -155 No coin

I don't even completely trust the -2.5,

don't get me wrong,

SF will most likely win,

but there were a shit load of ATL games decided this year by 2 points or less.......

**No coincidences** · 01-20-13, 05:45 PM

NE -7.5 (2.2U to win 2)
BAL TT under 21.5 (2.2U to win 2)

**PAULYPOKER** · 01-20-13, 06:32 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

NE -7.5 (2.2U to win 2)
BAL TT under 21.5 (2.2U to win 2)

I'm shocked coin

**BigDofBA** · 01-20-13, 06:38 PM

Baltimore is the square side. That doesn't mean it won't cash but there is a reason that they are +9.

**No coincidences** · 01-20-13, 08:13 PM

Doesn't really make sense to play this, but I think NE -3 2H is the play.

**Dfjay9** · 01-20-13, 08:17 PM

I'm on Pats -7.5 also. Layed off then 2nd half and got over 23 instead. Semi hedge against a Balty rally imo.

**No coincidences** · 01-20-13, 09:03 PM

Wow -- Pats completely gagging.

**Dexter** · 01-20-13, 09:05 PM

Originally posted by BigDofBA

Baltimore is the square side. That doesn't mean it won't cash but there is a reason that they are +9.

what was the reason they were +9? i dont get what you're saying...

**No coincidences** · 01-20-13, 09:06 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

what was the reason they were +9? i dont get what you're saying...

Second straight week they're going to cash SU as +9 dogs.

**BigDofBA** · 01-20-13, 09:09 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

what was the reason they were +9? i dont get what you're saying...

Honestly I don't know. That's why I was implying, there must be a reason they're getting so many points.

I had them last week and it felt square yet they won straight up.

I didn't want to push it two weeks in a row even though I loved them. It seems like this line should have been like 4-5 not close to 10.

**No coincidences** · 01-20-13, 09:11 PM

Now the under 21.5 isn't going to cash either.

Unreal collapse by the Pats.

**Dfjay9** · 01-20-13, 09:12 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Now the under 21.5 isn't going to cash either.

Unreal collapse by the Pats.

Did you take 2H over by any chance? Good chance my "hedge" out of Pats -7.5 works now. Any score (outside of a safety) does it now.

**Dexter** · 01-20-13, 09:16 PM

Originally posted by BigDofBA

Honestly I don't know. That's why I was implying, there must be a reason they're getting so many points.

I had them last week and it felt square yet they won straight up.

I didn't want to push it two weeks in a row even though I loved them. It seems like this line should have been like 4-5 not close to 10.

yeah, the way i look at lines like this, is that the dog would be the lean of the books (or at least they need more $$ on the favorite). NoCoin always preaches to fade a 1 or 2 pt home fav and this is no different imo.....sits under a key # of 10 for so long - to me, thats trying to entice money on the favorite.

this angle didnt work for me with kstate...that line sat at +8/+9 for a month but that backfired. but i like taking a deeper look at football games with spreads like this or 1/2 pt faves

**Dfjay9** · 01-20-13, 09:18 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

yeah, the way i look at lines like this, is that the dog would be the lean of the books (or at least they need more $$ on the favorite). NoCoin always preaches to fade a 1 or 2 pt home fav and this is no different imo.....sits under a key # of 10 for so long - to me, thats trying to entice money on the favorite.

this angle didnt work for me with kstate...that line sat at +8/+9 for a month but that backfired. but i like taking a deeper look at football games with spreads like this or 1/2 pt faves

This line closed at 7.5 at a lot of books and 7.5 is screaming for books trying to get people on the dog because they like the fav

**BigDofBA** · 01-20-13, 09:23 PM

Originally posted by Dfjay9

This line closed at 7.5 at a lot of books and 7.5 is screaming for books trying to get people on the dog because they like the fav

That's the way I saw it.

**PAULYPOKER** · 01-20-13, 09:34 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

what was the reason they were +9? i dont get what you're saying...

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

Silly Sammy,

Flacco got it done last year,

his wide receiver and kicker to boot let him down,

Flacco has been in the playoffs every single year of his 5 year young career,

in this time span he has more playoff time than Brady,

Flacco is ready, don't be fooled with the square ass Pats................

The -9 line is there to feed the public an illusion that the Ravens don't have a prayer to win the game............

Vegas is simply playing the clueless square headed public like a fukkin

**Dexter** · 01-20-13, 09:35 PM

Originally posted by Dfjay9

This line closed at 7.5 at a lot of books and 7.5 is screaming for books trying to get people on the dog because they like the fav

Originally posted by BigDofBA

That's the way I saw it.

now you're getting into another discussion DFJay....i am not a believer in books "liking" a side and trying to predict an outcome. they know who their sharp/winning customers are and adjust their lines based on the action of that player/syndicate etc and the general flow of money on the game.

The line opens at 9/9.5....closes at 7.5/8 with the majority of bets on the dog and $$ even on the game and you see this as books begging for the favorite to be bet? completely disagree guys.....if the books wanted people on the dog this would have moved to 10.5/11 instead of down. You dont see an NFL line go from 9 down to 6.5....they couldnt go much further then 7.5/8...

**Dfjay9** · 01-20-13, 09:38 PM

See I dont see any RLM which is big red flag. In the NFL I see lines sticking at 7.5 even with money pouring in on the dogs. Just my two cents.

On a side note - my "semi hedge" doesnt look like it will cash after that Brady tip-int... Oh well still 3-2-1 today if it loses.

**Dexter** · 01-20-13, 09:39 PM

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

lol....9 is no different then 7.5. im not sure why people view 9 as this big/huge #....the fact that this stayed under 10 was the most telling part of this movement.

pauly - do you remember my 15/1 ravens play to win the superbowl?

i would bump it but bumping your own posts is kind of toolish...