LTA's NFL PLays

[Love The Action]

Yet the line has not moved significantly, figured Bradford to be worth more than 1/2 a pt. Kinda making me like Seattle all the more......what you think bro?

Lean under, but I would like 38.5 or better.

[fly fisher]

would you take it at 38.5? My book for whatever reason still has it at 38.5.

[Krazymojo]

I think it will get there LTA....should we hit it at 38.5 if we see it?

[Redscot]

Lean under, but I would like 38.5 or better.

I nabbed a 7 pt. teaser -2 1/2 , under 45 1/2 , actually feel good about the play but gonna need to seek help on my Thursday/Monday teasing addiction. Teasing the totals not a good thing long term.....

GL if you play the under bro

[Love The Action]

would you take it at 38.5? My book for whatever reason still has it at 38.5.

I think it will get there LTA....should we hit it at 38.5 if we see it?

I am going to wait it out. I have this set at 36, so I would like 39. Plus, even though its not a top tier key number, 39 is important if you get a few fg's (see yesterdays cincy under). I would pull the trigger at 39 and will see if it gets there. 38.5 is playable, but 39 is prefered.

Otherwise, this could be a pass. I'm not exactly clammoring to play this one.

[Dexter]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 14 Recap (possible MNF play pending)

4 - 1 - 2 = +5.5x

A bittersweet week as we could have easily been 7 - 0 for +13x had the Chargers not missed an extra point, the Texans not scored with 2 seconds left based on a BS pass interference penalty and Marion Barber either stepped out of bounds or not fumbled (either or and we would have cashed +2.5x on that play alone). The NFL drives me crazy, but we still ended up with a profitable week so far with a possible MNF play pending.

NFL 2011-2012 Season

74 - 66 = +4.6x

Back in the black for the season and we're not looking back. We should be up way more than this after getting so many bad beats throughout this season. However, we continue to grind and will end the season on a strong run.

nice LTA

[fly fisher]

well I had taken it with earlier yesterday at 37.5, so if you were pretty confident, then I was thinking on putting a little more on it. I will ride with my 37.5, but at least you have it at 36, so maybe 37.5 will be enough.

[fecgp40]

I am going to wait it out. I have this set at 36, so I would like 39. Plus, even though its not a top tier key number, 39 is important if you get a few fg's (see yesterdays cincy under). I would pull the trigger at 39 and will see if it gets there. 38.5 is playable, but 39 is prefered. Otherwise, this could be a pass. I'm not exactly clammoring to play this one.

I agree LTA. There's a lot of variables in this game. Rams QB situation, injuries abound and really, just two teams that aren't very good. Playing a sh*t game like this always carries more risk in my opinion becaue you never know what you're going to get. My question is... Why the heck is this a MNF game????? What happened to the flex scheduling? Surely they could have found a place for this dog on Sunday at 4:15pm.

[Trivial]

I am borderline thinking of putting 0.50 units on Denver to win the super bowl. After what I've seen, I'm more inclined to think that what you think won't happen will happen and vice versa.

I'm not betting on Tebow. I'm betting on the impossible happening, that should not happen.

It is worth an action (small) wager.

I hate NFL.

That Bills OVER was in the bag. Got it at 47.5. DOH.

There is no way statistically Denver should even be a playoff contender, but for +5000 on Denver (5dimes), its worth a quarter of a unit just for some real fun.

I'll kick myself later for not doing it, so here is to throwing money away, while having fun jumping on the Denver city miracle.

LOCKED. 0.50x DENVER to win Superbowl XLVI +5000.

[Trivial]

I agree LTA. There's a lot of variables in this game. Rams QB situation, injuries abound and really, just two teams that aren't very good. Playing a sh*t game like this always carries more risk in my opinion becaue you never know what you're going to get. My question is... Why the heck is this a MNF game????? What happened to the flex scheduling? Surely they could have found a place for this dog on Sunday at 4:15pm.

I was thinking this myself. I need to double check, but I think flex scheduling is from week 10 onward, which means this crap on MNF shouldn't happen?

[Trivial]

I was thinking this myself. I need to double check, but I think flex scheduling is from week 10 onward, which means this crap on MNF shouldn't happen?

I am correct, and wrong.

http://www.nfl.com/schedules/tv/flexible

It applies to week 10 onward, but only to Sunday night games. Not Monday night.

Stupid.

[GChild]

I am correct, and wrong.

http://www.nfl.com/schedules/tv/flexible

It applies to week 10 onward, but only to Sunday night games. Not Monday night.

Stupid.

They need to change that!

[MrXYZ]

I'm on the over 38, good luck everyone.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 14

Play #1

Bills/Chargers over (47) 4x (Locked) PUSH

I may add another unit to this play but I want to see where the line moves. I am getting 48 at my sharper book and 47 at my squarish book, so that's always a good sign. Pinny has this one juiced up on the over at 47.5 and I expect them to make a move to 48 soon. Despite all of the Bills injuries and overall problems, they remain a top 13 offense in all of the advanced efficiency stats for both the pass and the rush, while SD is top 10 in both (top 5 in many). In addition, both offenses have big play capabilities through the air and can score quickly. However, what makes this a play is the weaknesses of the two defenses. Both defenses are in the bottom 6 of the league and I don't see any improvements coming this weekend. Bth defenses have suffered injuries to some of their best players and neither defense has recovered. Just because SD held Jax to 14 points, doesn't mean their defense has turned the corner and is now stout again. Instead, that is more an indictment on the Jax offense than an endorsement of the SD defense. The strength of both offenses comes through the air, but both the Bills' Spiller and Chargers' Matthews are capable of gashing the other team for some big plays and big rushing days. Also interesting is that both teams are top 10 in offensive yards per play, but bottom 10 in defensive yards per play. All of the stats point to the over in this game. I have this one set at 50, which may seem a little high, but the advantage of offense over defense in this game is huge. Bottom line is that I expect a shootout and I'm going to take the value here on the over. I am rolling with the over for 4x. Good luck.

Play #2

Browns/Steelers under (40) 1x (Locked) WINNER

This might get to 40.5, but its not going to 41. I was waiting to get a better number than 38 and I am happy to get 40. Because I will be busy at work unable to monitor line movement, I am jumping on the 40 now rather than risk losing that number. I think we see a game dominated by rushing and defense. The Browns are a top 10 defensive team against the pass in epa, dvoa, epa/p, wpa and sr%. However, they struggle mightily against the run where they rank in the bottom five. I expect the steelers to find success with Mendenhall and have no need to resort to their dangerous pass attack in the 2h. Pittsburgh should take command of this game and limit the browns through the air. However, the browns may find some success on the ground if Hills is ready to go against a steelers defense susceptible to the run. While this wont lead to a ton of points, the browns should be able to get some first downs and keep the clock moving. I have this game set at 37 and would have played the under at 39. Once I was able to get 40, I had to jump on it despite the steam on the over. I think this one closes below 39 illustrating that this movement on the over was made more for a better number on the under than a true move on the over. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Texans/Bengals under (39) 2x (Locked) PUSH

Most of the market is at 38.5 or 38 right now, so when one my locals moved to 39, I jumped on it. I actually wanted to get 40, but I'm not sure this gets there and I didn't want to lose out on the 39. You have two teams with rookie quarterbacks squaring off after the 12th game of the season when rookies tend to hit the wall (especially rookie qb's). Those rookies are going to be against two of the best defenses according to the advanced stats. However, each teams' defensive strength is especially successful against each teams' offensive strength. On offense, Houston needs to run the ball with success to take some pressure off of Yates (even if Delhomme plays a bit). However, Cincy's run defense is top 5 in the league in defensive rushing EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. Therefore, I don't see Houston finding a ton of success on the ground against Cincy. Similarly, on offense, Cincy will try to get the ball to AJ Green through the air but will face off against Houston's top 3 defense against the pass in EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. However, even if Cincy tries to run the ball with Benson, you still have to face Houston's top 10 run defense in the same advanced statistical categories. Bottom line is that I think you see both defenses come after these young qb's, stop the run and this one turns into a defensive struggle. Plus, the lack of Andre Johnson in this game, really cements this as a 2x worthy game. With Yates on the road for the first time as a starter, Kubiak will not force anything through the air without Johnson. This keeps the ball on the ground and the clock moving. It also plays into the hands of the Bengals defense who are much better against the run than the pass without Leon Hall at cornerback. Low total unders are always susceptible to turnover or special teams touchdowns, so we just need to cross our fingers and hope those don't happen. Otherwise, I see this one staying under the posted total and have this set at 36.5 giving us 2.5 points of value. I am rolling with the under for 2x. Good luck.

Play #4

Falcons/Panthers over (47) 2x (Locked) WINNER

I know that the Falcons have played to 9 straight unders because I've cashed quite a few of them. However, in this game, I think the offense will be too much. Carolina will be playing at home where they have been especially dangerous. In addition, Carolina will be playing without two of its best defensive line starters who were placed in IR this week. That opens Atlanta up for Turner to have a big game and there is no doubt Turner loves playing against the Panthers who he has rushed for over 750 yards against throughout his career. Carolina's defense is bottom 5 in the league against both rushing and passing and in DVOA, EVA, EVA/P, WPA and SR%. I think we see Atlanta run over Carolina quite easily and explode for some big plays through the play action pass with Matty Ice to Jones and White on the outside. However, this play really comes down to Carolina's offense and I think Cam and the boys play well this Sunday. Atlanta is a bit slow on defense and with Smith burning down the field opening up so much of the Panther playbook, I think the Panthers put at least 3 td's in the endzone. Atlanta's defense is respectable overall, coming in top 15 overall in advanced efficiency stats, but can struggle on the road at times with the pass. I think we see Carolnia get behind early which will force them to turn to the pass. This will open up the running lanes for Newton who should have some successful scrambling plays. In the first game this year, this matchup turned in 48 points. I expect a similar type game on Sunday. I have this one set at 50 and we're getting a field goal of value. I am rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #5

Giants/Cowboys over (50) 1x and over (49) 1x and over (48) 0.50x for total of 2.5x (Locked)WINNER

I was hoping to wait on this game and get a number around 49 or 48 as the early money trended under. However, this morning the number steamed all the way up to 50.5 and even 51 at some outlets, so I feel fortunate to get 50. I may add to this one down the road as long as I can get it under the key number of 51. You have two of the best passing offenses and quarterbacks in the league going against two weakened secondaries. Even though both defenses sport defensive lines that can be great at times, both defensive lines have been extremely inconsistent throughout this season. I think we see this become a shootout because both teams' offensive strengths are through the air where they rank top 10 in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR% and both teams will struggle to stop the receivers they will face. I have this one set at 53 and we this is another game where we are getting 3 points or more of value. I am rolling with the over for 2.5x. Good luck.

Play #6 LOSS

Bears ML (+160) 0.50x (Locked)

&

Parlay

Bears ML (+165)/Under (37)(-135) 0.50x to win 1.7x (Locked)

I love the Bears in this spot as a great public fade. I think the Bears win this game outright as Tebow has never faced such an aggressive and athletic defense all year. If the Bears win but the game stays under, this play will be considered a push. This is an official play now. Total risk of 1x for total payout possibility of 2.5x. My thoughts about this game are below from the earlier parlay writeup. Good luck.

I love the payout on this play and fully expect to cash this correlated parlay ticket. The Bears defense should put an end to this Tebow winning streak. Other than in the Jets game, Tebow has not faced such a dominate defense. However, I would argue this Bears defense is better than what NYJ has to offer. If you look at the advanced efficiency stats against both the pass and the run, the Bears come in at the top 5 of the leage in defensive rushing and passing DVOA, EVA, EVA/P, WPA and SR%. On the other side, the Broncos are not anywhere near as highly rated and are middle of the pack. However, during their winning streak, Von Miller has been dominate in leading them to victory. I would actually argue that the Broncos defense has had just as much if not more to do with their winning streak than Tebow. In this game, they will be facing a Bears offense that is without Cutler and Forte. With Hanie at QB they have not found much success because of his turnovers. However, this will be his third start and I expect improvement. I also expect a less aggressive game plan from Martz that is more conducive to Hanie's strengths. I do not think they will stick with those 7 step drops. Instead, look for quick passes, rollouts and other plays that will help accentuate Hanie's strengths. The Broncos are the favorite for one of the few times during Tebow's successful streak and the public is firmly behind them in this game. I think that gives us a great fade opportunity. I am going to monitor the line and I may still have other plays in this game, but for now I am locking in this action parlay. Good luck.

Play #7

Correlated Teaser

Giants (+10.5)/over (43) 1.1x to win 1x (Locked)WINNER

I just don't see the Giants losing by more than 10. I have the total set at 53, so once I was able to get 10 points of value on the tease and cover the key number of 43, I had to pull the trigger. We've gotten burned by some bullshit today, so let's cash this 2x over play and 1x correlated teaser for some late night profit. Good luck.

Play #8

Rams/Seahawks under (39) 1x (Locked)

This number is available at Legends or Bodog. I said I would take the under at 39 and that's what I got. This one could be undone by a special teams or turnover touchdown, but other than that I see two defenses which are way better than the offense. As far as the advanced stats, the defense are in the top 10 in the case of Seattle and bottom third in the case of St. Louis. However, with a healthy Chris Long to cause disruption on the STL defensive line, I think that STL is able to handle the passing game of Seattle. I think this one comes down to the running game and field position. Both offenses have good running backs but overall running game does not have good rankings with them both in the bottom 10 in EVA, EVA/P, WPA and SR%. Without the Rice and WR for Seattle, I don't see them stretching the field too often and with Bradford's injury I think they employ more three step drops and quick passes. I have this one set at 36 and we're getting 3 points of value at 39. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[fecgp40]

Play #8 Rams/Seahawks under (39) 1x (Locked) This number is available at Legends or Bodog. I said I would take the under at 39 and that's what I got. This one could be undone by a special teams or turnover touchdown, but other than that I see two defenses which are way better than the offense. As far as the advanced stats, the defense are in the top 10 in the case of Seattle and bottom third in the case of St. Louis. However, with a healthy Chris Long to cause disruption on the STL defensive line, I think that STL is able to handle the passing game of Seattle. I think this one comes down to the running game and field position. Without the Rice and WR for Seattle, I don't see them stretching the field too often and with Bradford's injury I think they employ more three step drops and quick passes. I have this one set at 36 and we're getting 3 points of value at 39. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Good luck LTA. I decided to do something I don't normally do and parlay Seattle -9 with the under 38. This way if fluky stuff happens I don't lose much, but still win my standard amount.

[Love The Action]

Good luck LTA. I decided to do something I don't normally do and parlay Seattle -9 with the under 38. This way if fluky stuff happens I don't lose much, but still win my standard amount.

Not a bad choice. I was thinking about a teaser with Seattle and the under, but one of books had -8/38 while the other had -9/39. If I could have gotten the -8 with the 39, I would have teased it to -2/45.
Because I couldn't, I just went with the under since I got the fg of value at 39. Good luck on your parlay.

[Love The Action]

A blocked punt!!!!! Come on...I wouldn't care, but I haven't won an over all year from a blocked punt but have had at least three unders lose because of them

[fecgp40]

A blocked punt!!!!! Come on...I wouldn't care, but I haven't won an over all year from a blocked punt but have had at least three unders lose because of them

I feel your pain bro. Seems like whenever you take the under there's some miraculous stuff happening to score points. I still think you're good in this one though. Seattle is stacking the box and Bradford looks really rusty.

[Love The Action]

I am borderline thinking of putting 0.50 units on Denver to win the super bowl. After what I've seen, I'm more inclined to think that what you think won't happen will happen and vice versa.

I'm not betting on Tebow. I'm betting on the impossible happening, that should not happen.

It is worth an action (small) wager.

I hate NFL.

That Bills OVER was in the bag. Got it at 47.5. DOH.

There is no way statistically Denver should even be a playoff contender, but for +5000 on Denver (5dimes), its worth a quarter of a unit just for some real fun.

I'll kick myself later for not doing it, so here is to throwing money away, while having fun jumping on the Denver city miracle.

LOCKED. 0.50x DENVER to win Superbowl XLVI +5000.

I think you just wasted a 0.50x

No, seriously, good luck bud. The NFL is crazy but I guess that's what we love about it.

[No coincidences]

Rams throw on 4th and 1 from the Seattle 36 and Seattle fumbles inside the Rams 30. I'd say those kind of plays help, LTA.

[Love The Action]

Rams throw on 4th and 1 from the Seattle 36 and Seattle fumbles inside the Rams 30. I'd say those kind of plays help, LTA.

Teams rarely punt in that situation, so that's not really too much of a break. The fumble was huge.

None of those compare to a blocked punt. This game should be 3-3.

[No coincidences]

Teams rarely punt in that situation, so that's not really too much of a break. The fumble was huge.

None of those compare to a blocked punt. This game should be 3-3.

I didn't expect them to punt, but hello? Run the ball?

[brucethebear]

Teams rarely punt in that situation, so that's not really too much of a break. The fumble was huge.

None of those compare to a blocked punt. This game should be 3-3.

At work, so only watching via NFL.com. Didn't see your post, so ended up teasing the -4/under45 for a little action.

Looked at the special teams TD. Just had a feeling, but couldn't pull the trigger

[Love The Action]

I didn't expect them to punt, but hello? Run the ball?

That was longer than a yard -- probably a yard and a half and Seattle has a great rushing defense with a tough d-line. I thought the play call wasn't bad and I like the aggressiveness -- you kind of hope you catch them sleeping for a big play. The problem was they didn't execute.

[brucethebear]

Wow - we caught a break there. So easily could have been 7.

[fecgp40]

no more points final 4:39 please.

[Love The Action]

Ofcourse they go for the onside kick with 5 minutes left....

I will be so pissed if we lose because of that blocked punt.

[Love The Action]

Unreal. If I've said it once, I've said it a million times, fuk the NFL.

[fecgp40]

and we did... because seattle idiots keep running out of bounds instead of running the clock. whatever.

[fecgp40]

Thanks Rams defense.

[Love The Action]

Take away the blocked punt and this game cashes.

[fecgp40]

Unreal. If I've said it once, I've said it a million times, fuk the NFL.

[fecgp40]

figures i was thinking about a seattle/under teaser and instead I decided to do a parlay. unbelievable.

[GChild]

Take away the blocked punt and this game cashes.

Yep

[cohbull]

Unders in the NFL suckkkk