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So much talk on this under I bought it to 51!Comment -
Teaser gb-6, ov43... Good luckComment -
I gotta get a bodog account!Comment -
You asked about buying points on NFL totals. Generally, I recommend against such strategies, but in the rarest of situations. Buying points in general is not a profitable proposition if done regularly over time because it requires that you win at a higher winning percentage than on -110 lines.
With that said, there are rare circumstances where I will buy a half point on a total (never a full point). These situations primarily revolve around key numbers, especially the most important key NFL numbers which are 41, 37, 44, 51, 43, 33, 47 and right on down the line. If I making a play that is either a big play or another play that is right around a key number, then I will, on rare occasion, buy the hook. A perfect example would be last week in the Miami (Oh) game in NCAAF where I bought it from 44.5 to 45 because of the importance of that key number in NCAAF. That resulted in a push rather than a loss because the game ended at 45.
For basic reference, memorize key numbers and make your bet based on where the line opens in relation to key numbers, where it moves from open in relation to the closest key number at open and where the number closes in relation to that opening key number.
For example, tonight's game opened at 51 and was hit with steady sharp money on the under all week which saw a drop to 48.5, below the less important, but still relevant, key number of 49. Nevertheless, as soon as it went below 49, you started to see sharps hit the over because they were getting coverage on 49. Consequently, sharps that like the under in this game bought it early at 51 thereby covering that ultra important key number and other sharps who like the over, bought the over at 48.5 getting a win on the key number of 49 or more. For me, I like the under, but I would only play it at 51 because that was the best available number for that play. If I had liked the over, I would have played it at 48.5, because that was the best available number for that play. Consequently, you need to shape your plays around key numbers in the NFL no matter which side you are on. It's all about beating the closer, but in order to do so you should get the best available number for whichever side you want to play. Get the best number, beat the closer and you will be a long term winner.
I hope that helps. Good luck.
Last edited by Love The Action; 11-14-11, 07:52 PM.Comment -
Wow!!! This is why I like following people like you!!Comment -
Waiting to get 51....my sharp book that follows Pinny/5d moved down to 49.5, however, my other more square books that is similar to Legends and Bodog is at 50.5. If that one moves to 51, I will lock it in. We'll see. Good luck tonight.Comment -
^ It's 47 at 5DimesComment -
Ya. I just recently joined Bodog. Seems to have very good lines when betting against the public from what I am seeing so far. Oh Canada.Comment -
Just got 51 on the under...posting it now.Comment -
Lta, i went teaser Minny +19,
and Under 56 lets get em.
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Play #10
Vikings/Packers under (51) 1x (Locked)
This was a situation where shopping lines and constantly monitoring those lines paid off. This one went from 50.5, to 50 then started fluctuating between 50 and 51 rapidly. It took me two tries, but I was finally able to get 51 and illustrates the advantage to having access to both a square and sharp book. I would not have played this at less than 51. I don't think Ponder generates much offense tonight and I expect GB to shut down Peterson and force him to beat them. On the other side, you can't really stop Rodgers but you can slow him down with a tough pass rush. With Jared Allen pumped to play a prime time game, I expect a heavy pass rush against Rodgers tonight. Therefore, even though Minny is poor against the pass, I expect a better performance tonight with Antoine Winfield back in the lineup at CB. This is a pretty big total and I don't think we see Minny score over 24 like the first game between these two teams. I like this one to squeak under the posted total and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
I like that play, although I might have went with GB at -7 instead. Still, you can wrong with getting 19 points in the NFL and I don't care who is playing who. These are all pros....
I just don't expect much out of the Vikings offense outside of Peterson, and I expect the Packers to key on him in an effort to force Ponder to beat them. I think it's a tall task for any rookie qb in his third real game of NFL action to produce big time points against the world champs.
Should be a good game, I was glad to get 51 on the under. Hoping to top off a great week with a big win to put me back in the black for the season.
Good luck Pac
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Not sure about the Panthers/Lions under. I expect close to 60 points in that game, especially after both being shut down in their last game.
BOL!Comment -
Pinny = "sharp" book. Pinny welcomes all action and caters to professional sports investors. Therefore, their lines are considered the sharpest and most efficient in the market.
Bodog = "square" book. Bodog does not welcome pros and caters to the casual gamblor. Therefore, their lines are likely to have value on dogs and unders.
You need access to both types of books so you can get good numbers no matter what you are wagering. Generally, you get more value on faves and overs at "sharp" books and more value on dogs and unders at "square" books. That is why I recommend having access to both types of books.
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Lions have no running back and a qb with a broken throwing hand in Stafford, while their defense remains one of the best in the league. On the other side, the long awaited Cam Newton regression seems to be here now that teams have caught up with the option capabilities. Plus, the panther defense is not great, but they do have some potential according to the advanced stats. The under was hit right at the open and has dropped from the 48.5-48 range to the 47.5-47 range indicating early money on the under.
Why do you like the over?Last edited by Love The Action; 11-14-11, 09:39 PM.Comment -
Thanks LTA for the explanation. Makes good sense. Now if only Minny stops turning the ball over.Pinny = "sharp" book. Pinny welcomes all action and caters to professional sports investors. Therefore, their lines are considered the sharpest and most efficient in the market.
Bodog = "square" book. Bodog does not welcome pros and caters to the casual gamblor. Therefore, their lines are likely to have value on dogs and unders.
You need access to both types of books so you can get good numbers no matter what you are wagering. Generally, you get more value on faves and overs at "sharp" books and more value on dogs and unders at "square" books. That is why I recommend having access to both types of books.
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That helps a lot. Thanks for taking the time out to respond and trying to fully explain everything. I only have one more question for you. I'm not sure where the books closed the line since I was away at kick-off. Hypothetically, assuming they didn't move the line and left it at 49.5. Why would the book not cover that number of 49 in case of a push? Are they trying to entice you to take the under thinking the game will go over or are they still thinking people go over and covering the under? In this situation the sharps were betting it down from 51, some sharps brought it back up from 48 and the general public was all over the over. So were they playing 49.5 to get the overs from the public to lose in case it went 49? Or am i reading too much into this?You asked about buying points on NFL totals. Generally, I recommend against such strategies, but in the rarest of situations. Buying points in general is not a profitable proposition if done regularly over time because it requires that you win at a higher winning percentage than on -110 lines. With that said, there are rare circumstances where I will buy a half point on a total (never a full point). These situations primarily revolve around key numbers, especially the most important key NFL numbers which are 41, 37, 44, 51, 43, 33, 47 and right on down the line. If I making a play that is either a big play or another play that is right around a key number, then I will, on rare occasion, buy the hook. A perfect example would be last week in the Miami (Oh) game in NCAAF where I bought it from 44.5 to 45 because of the importance of that key number in NCAAF. That resulted in a push rather than a loss because the game ended at 45. For basic reference, memorize key numbers and make your bet based on where the line opens in relation to key numbers, where it moves from open in relation to the closest key number at open and where the number closes in relation to that opening key number. For example, tonight's game opened at 51 and was hit with steady sharp money on the under all week which saw a drop to 48.5, below the less important, but still relevant, key number of 49. Nevertheless, as soon as it went below 49, you started to see sharps hit the over because they were getting coverage on 49. Consequently, sharps that like the under in this game bought it early at 51 thereby covering that ultra important key number and other sharps who like the over, bought the over at 48.5 getting a win on the key number of 49 or more. For me, I like the under, but I would only play it at 51 because that was the best available number for that play. If I had liked the over, I would have played it at 48.5, because that was the best available number for that play. Consequently, you need to shape your plays around key numbers in the NFL no matter which side you are on. It's all about beating the closer, but in order to do so you should get the best available number for whichever side you want to play. Get the best number, beat the closer and you will be a long term winner. I hope that helps. Good luck.Comment -
Lta, the Det/Carolina total is now at 47 any thoughts?
Bol, on your under.Comment -
Donnie : Any chance the TT cahes now?Comment -
Just for your reference, the Pinny closer was 49, so I got a great number at 51.
I don't think you are over-thinking it, I think you are starting to apply the type of critical thinking that is necessary to be successful in sports investing.
However, you also have to remember that the books aren't moving the lines to "trick" anyone. They are simply trying to balance the action so that no matter what they profit. While there are some people that think books pull "headfakes" with fake steam or post false numbers in order to elicit certain action, I don't tend to agree with that sort of thinking (although I believe anything is possible). I generally believe that books move lines in response to the overall amount of their handle on particular side or in response to someone they "respect" (e.g. BW) taking a strong position.
(NC -- check in pal, what do you think about headfakes...do they exist?)
Especially in football, however, books are going to move their lines around key numbers in the manner you indicate. By using the hook, they can manipulate the money they get depending on which side then need. So you are correct in the sense that they are trying to entice one side or the other depending on where they place the hook in relation to the key number they are shaping it around in order to get the money they need in support of one side or the other.
Therefore, even though they are simply moving the line and the hook in order to balance their action, they always have key numbers in mind when setting and adjusting the number.
I hope that helps.
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NFL is such a joke. No "easy" wins with this under -- the league won't allow it.
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I like it whole lot more at 48, but would not play it for more than 1x at 47. 48 is the tenth most common final score in the NFL (47 is the 7th most common). The remaining 8 of the top 10 most common final scores come under 47, except for 51 which is the fourth most common final score. Therefore, I like this play more at 48, but still think its a play at 47 (but no less). GL
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Green Bay is unstoppable...and Minny isn't exactly Jacksonville on D. I felt like Minny was lucky to have only given up 17 in the 1h. I expected the 2h to be tight with respect to the final, but if you take away that fumble on the punt, the under would have a good pace because it would have a 17 point cushion going into the 4th quarter. Now there's only a 13 point cushion going into the 4th quarter which is a HUGE difference as you know.
It doesn't make me feel any better when Minny goes for it on 4th and 9 from the 50...and the refs call bullshit pass interference penalty with the score 31-7. Let it go....Comment -
Hopefully the Pack settle for 3 points, stop the Vikings and then run out the clock for the rest of the game. We have a 13 point cushion. This would be a killer to lose by 1 point....Comment -
These penalties are KILLING us right now
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This one's going to take a miracle. I just hope we don't lose because of some garbage touchdown in the final few minutes...time to finish capping tomorrow's MAC game. GL
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