2011 NFL Pro Picks with John Ryan

[spike1519]

I pay a fee to a private sports company. Stats LLC is a reliable source.

With the database, you can implement back propagation and then weight the variables based on the results for the 'learning' phase of the model. the majority of variables must have a current period weighting to reflect the current game environment.

Thanks so much John as always spot on advise I'm looking forward to getting this going and then back testing some query packages I've found online at other forums. This would at least save me the majority of programming the "bulk" of the query's all id need to add are the more current ones as well as new ones I come up with as well as other's query's and of course this "weighting" to newer and current stats. I'm thinking of assigning newer stuff with a plus or minus points system that allows more recent win's losses to count or minus more point's as well as things like home field or say monday night games (which seem to have a mind of there own) say like this season gets a plus one or negative one point in the query automatically, as would recent games against same opponents E.T.C just thinking out loud here. Any way I'm having fun with it and just need to work more on the interface between the Database and the user trying to simplify the input so most could do it. Certainly dont want to invent my own query language to make this happen mostly its fun so far am looking into the file types at the place you reccomended to see if I'll have any compatability issues that might come up. Again thinking this has got to be at least a start towards something to refine, as time goes by thanks John.......Spike........

[spike1519]

WWWWWWWWWait a minute here are you talking about nueral binary networks using propagation and Exemplar weighting (just dawned on me) because through user-defined dynamic link libraries (DLLs). and using
exemplar weighting. Requiring each network to run on user input macros, this suddenly makes it much more involved including classification, function approximation as well as prediction and clustering then theres the learning neural network. I reasearched your back propagation and this goes way beyond what i initially thought it was this is actually a self teaching algorythm based on time (holy cow) this is way beyond simply sampling a database and depending on your query's getting an answer this would involve complex algorythims to compute outcomes by learning weighting and thru binary codes to virtually and i assume eventually actually use self propagation to learn what your after! wow I'm impressed! maybe I bit off more than I could chew here. This could not only predict the winner of a game it could solve military and monetary as well as pick stocks and predict best courses for governments to decide on issues. It would have capability's way beyond this christ it could practically cook dinner lol. If this is what you have Berkely press has many articles that may interest you (way over my meager programming skills) It would seem that football predictions would be easy for this thing it could almost tell you which hole tiger would make his next hole in one on if so desired.....is this what your talking about cause im gonna quit if thats the case lol....Much respect .....Spike........

[wblgolfer59]

WWWWWWWWWait a minute here are you talking about nueral binary networks using propagation and Exemplar weighting (just dawned on me) because through user-defined dynamic link libraries (DLLs). and using
exemplar weighting. Requiring each network to run on user input macros, this suddenly makes it much more involved including classification, function approximation as well as prediction and clustering then theres the learning neural network. I reasearched your back propagation and this goes way beyond what i initially thought it was this is actually a self teaching algorythm based on time (holy cow) this is way beyond simply sampling a database and depending on your query's getting an answer this would involve complex algorythims to compute outcomes by learning weighting and thru binary codes to virtually and i assume eventually actually use self propagation to learn what your after! wow I'm impressed! maybe I bit off more than I could chew here. This could not only predict the winner of a game it could solve military and monetary as well as pick stocks and predict best courses for governments to decide on issues. It would have capability's way beyond this christ it could practically cook dinner lol. If this is what you have Berkely press has many articles that may interest you (way over my meager programming skills) It would seem that football predictions would be easy for this thing it could almost tell you which hole tiger would make his next hole in one on if so desired.....is this what your talking about cause im gonna quit if thats the case lol....Much respect .....Spike........

I remember when I wanted to sound smart.....

[Greyraptor]

WWWWWWWWWait a minute here are you talking about nueral binary networks using propagation and Exemplar weighting (just dawned on me) because through user-defined dynamic link libraries (DLLs). and using
exemplar weighting. Requiring each network to run on user input macros, this suddenly makes it much more involved including classification, function approximation as well as prediction and clustering then theres the learning neural network. I reasearched your back propagation and this goes way beyond what i initially thought it was this is actually a self teaching algorythm based on time (holy cow) this is way beyond simply sampling a database and depending on your query's getting an answer this would involve complex algorythims to compute outcomes by learning weighting and thru binary codes to virtually and i assume eventually actually use self propagation to learn what your after! wow I'm impressed! maybe I bit off more than I could chew here. This could not only predict the winner of a game it could solve military and monetary as well as pick stocks and predict best courses for governments to decide on issues. It would have capability's way beyond this christ it could practically cook dinner lol. If this is what you have Berkely press has many articles that may interest you (way over my meager programming skills) It would seem that football predictions would be easy for this thing it could almost tell you which hole tiger would make his next hole in one on if so desired.....is this what your talking about cause im gonna quit if thats the case lol....Much respect .....Spike........

And I thought my college degree would do me good one day. BAH! Guess I should have spent more time listening in "Back Propogation Theory 101"

[vividjohn45]

gl. this weekend john ryan.

[GenosPicks]

this thread reads like a Russian novel--amazing information but you really have to pay attention. Stay hot Johnny!!! Here's my 5 NFL Picks for Week 8 as only Geno can present them. =)

http://www.sbrforum.com/nfl-football/free-picks/week-8-nfl-picks-geno-a-21788/

Take a peek and leave a comment BEST line??? worst pick???

[panikpoker]

john i know you have been on BYU before you on them tonight??

[PickMeAwinner]

BYU is a looking like the play for tonight, TCU to me hasn't really played a team that can play much Defense. I say this is gonna be a close game. Now that BYU has gotta spark on offense its gonna even favor the pick even more. I dont see BYU getting blown out. I'll take the points

BYU +14

I'll wait to see what John has to say.

[spike1519]

BYU is a looking like the play for tonight, TCU to me hasn't really played a team that can play much Defense. I say this is gonna be a close game. Now that BYU has gotta spark on offense its gonna even favor the pick even more. I dont see BYU getting blown out. I'll take the points

BYU +14

I'll wait to see what John has to say.

So far I've only been able to find 2 of John's ncaaf threads. Seems like theres gotta be a better way of locating them. Perhaps just combining them with this thread or at minimum a weekly link to them oh well. I see he's got Sooners covering 13.5 or even 14 as well as Nebraska covering over M.S.U (unsure of odd's in that game) lol it always seems to be a bet against the crowd thing on this thread but those of us who have been around for a bit have become used to this I'd worry if he just went with the crowd any week B.O.L to all this weekend.......spike........

heres the ones I located so far http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-fo...john-ryan.html

as well as http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-fo...john-ryan.html

and an interesting article at

http://www.sbrforum.com/college-football/free-picks/pick-oklahoma-kansas-state-when-9-meets-8-a-21768/

anyone knows of more please post em !!!!!!!!!!!

[spike1519]

BYU is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing TCU
TCU is 23-2 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of TCU's last 5 games at home
BYU is at 14.6 y.p.p and t.c.u is at 10.4
Defensive p.p.y BYU= 15.9 TCU= 15.9 diff is BYU= -1.2 and TCU is -5.5
yards per pass has tcu ahead by about 2.5 yards.
byu's defense gives avg. 4.0 yards per carry where tcu avg. is 3.6

These teams I think are more evenly matched than the point spread would indicate I'm in agreement I think byu to cover at + 14 is a great bet. bol, pickmeawinner, thinkin im on board with this as well ...spike....

after further revue meaning sportsbook just dropped my points significantly maybe I'll stay away ! or go for an upset on tcu if bcu gets off to a slow start it's not impossible at all. tcu's defense isnt that great but there undefeated somethin to be said there ...PRIDE 7-0 is nothin to sneeze at regardless of opponents and there at home, maybe thinkin to much lol

[PickMeAwinner]

BYU

[wblgolfer59]

This week is confusing, but betting Brady when the line is with in 3 sounds like good logic, and I doubt the browns get to ten so does San Fran score 19 ill go with a yes, though I might just go with John, where are your picks I need my fix

[wblgolfer59]

I think this is a rare week in the NFL where Religion comes into play, If you believe in Jesus then its pretty hard to be against Tebow expecially after last weeks nothing short of a miracle, I read on Grantland that the odds of winning were less than one percent when he had the ball down 15 and jumped to 2 percent after the first TD, though it was the dolphins and he had no points you would think the Lions can bounce back going vs somebody who many say cant even play in the NFL on only a 4 point spread....

[John Ryan]

Yes, BYU was the play for sure. Sorry I was not able to get into the thread last night. I will be back at Noon Saturday for the release of the NFL plays and further discussion of them. It also look slike I created a 'monster' referring to backpropagation. Yes, his statements are true enough. I had a career on Wall Street from the mid-80's to 2001. Early on I climbed the corporate ladder quite quickly and at the age of 28 was VP - Institutional Trading. My boss was the Chief Economist and he had already programmed a 'pattern recognition' algorithm for commodity and currency markets. The price movements of currencies always precede the large bear and bull movements in stock prices. The same holds true with commodities. This is quite simple, but if we had a BUY signal for the price of copper it would then extend to a 'buy' for many sectors of the economy. For example, home building uses copper wiring et. al to build homes. So, there is always this domino effect originating from currency and commodity prices. Even recently, the Euro has dictated the direction of the stock market. The Euro has risen with each 'up' day this month in world equity markets. Now, this is quite simple and believe me I can expand on this and put most you completely asleep. In the early 1990's I began to ticker around with neural networks and the like and was basically looking for ways to make my bosses 'price recognition' system better. We succeeded and the currency model I developed is one that I still use today for my individual trading/investments. It's not perfect - nothing ever will be - but I have the confidence knowing it is putting me into the highest probabilistic trades and investment opportunities. Due to 9-11 - one of many reasons- I retired from Wall Street as a Chief Currency Strategist - lived two blocks from the towers. However, during the early 90's, a buddy of mine said John, take that 'thing' and apply it to sports. My first response was sports betting is not powerful economic trends and would never produce the same results, and is simply a 50/50 proposition. Well, out of curiosity I began to tinker with it and I found that there were situational patterns that tied in well with what I had learned about human herd mentality. i then wanted to see what the 'industry' was all about and immediately discovered how many services were out there that claimed to have the LOCK of the Year and were nothing more than BS artists. There are many great sports handicappers out there, but I think we would all agree that most of the time it is ' buyer beware'. So, now I had the added motivation of showing people that wanted the 'action' of sports betting, the thrill of the chase, that you could win at sports betting over time with a strong disciplined approach. So, now you have a bit of the background and foundation of my selection process.

[John Ryan]

I think this is a rare week in the NFL where Religion comes into play, If you believe in Jesus then its pretty hard to be against Tebow expecially after last weeks nothing short of a miracle, I read on Grantland that the odds of winning were less than one percent when he had the ball down 15 and jumped to 2 percent after the first TD, though it was the dolphins and he had no points you would think the Lions can bounce back going vs somebody who many say cant even play in the NFL on only a 4 point spread....

Interesting.... I do think that Tebow's way of life is highly contagious to his teammates and despite his short comings in skills, release point, etc, he gets the job done and that makes everyone around him want to play harder and get better themselves. Good POINT!

[John Ryan]

So far I've only been able to find 2 of John's ncaaf threads. Seems like theres gotta be a better way of locating them. Perhaps just combining them with this thread or at minimum a weekly link to them oh well. I see he's got Sooners covering 13.5 or even 14 as well as Nebraska covering over M.S.U (unsure of odd's in that game) lol it always seems to be a bet against the crowd thing on this thread but those of us who have been around for a bit have become used to this I'd worry if he just went with the crowd any week B.O.L to all this weekend.......spike........

heres the ones I located so far http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-fo...john-ryan.html

as well as http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-fo...john-ryan.html

and an interesting article at

http://www.sbrforum.com/college-football/free-picks/pick-oklahoma-kansas-state-when-9-meets-8-a-21768/

anyone knows of more please post em !!!!!!!!!!!

I will make it very clear when I release an article this coming week. My featured thread will be the BIG showdown between Alabama and LSU. This will be an awesome game to debate and handicap. Spike, thanks so much for providing the research, info, and facts, you do. It clearly brings out the best in this thread.

[aussieH]

A bit of topic but which way is the stock market going to go John. any thoughts on Europe or china

[GenosPicks]

No matter how they open, the Asian Markets always promise a happy ending... I know, we all saw that but coming. In any case.. more gold like that with my Week 8 NFL Picks (which are a great FADE at 40% ATS this year) or am I due this week??? It's definitely worth a look as it's an entertaining 5 minutes any way you slice it.. lemme know your thoughts.

http://www.sbrforum.com/nfl-football...-geno-a-21788/

[Avenger]

No matter how they open, the Asian Markets always promise a happy ending... I know, we all saw that but coming. In any case.. more gold like that with my Week 8 NFL Picks (which are a great FADE at 40% ATS this year) or am I due this week??? It's definitely worth a look as it's an entertaining 5 minutes any way you slice it.. lemme know your thoughts. http://www.sbrforum.com/nfl-football...-geno-a-21788/

FWIW, I watched your vid. Hilarious. That's the good news.

Bad news: I agreed on every team except the Chargers.

This will either be the weekend of my $100 giftcard or a bloodbath. We'll see. I can't see any of those teams losing, so... of course one of them will.

[John Ryan]

A bit of topic but which way is the stock market going to go John. any thoughts on Europe or china

can we table this until Sunday afternoon. Remind though to answer your question please. We have a big of a rare snow storm keeping me trapped in an airport so I am abit delayed.. Football picks coming.

[John Ryan]

21-11 ATS 5* Plays, 1-0 ATS 10* Plays, 1-1 ATS 20* plays.

5* graded play on the St. Louis Rams +14 1/2 -110
5* graded play on the 49ers -9 -110
5* graded play Denver +3 -105


Research and matchups to follow... Looking at a 10* play as well that i will get to as well.

Snow storm/ice storm in the Northeast is giving me limited internet, but I will be back. Plenty of Starbucks and kiosks around.

[jjaycuny]

Accidentally took DALLAS +3 instead of DENVER

[spike1519]

thanks as always John ...spike

[phillybadboy]

edit

[John Ryan]

Accidentally took DALLAS +3 instead of DENVER

Keep the Dallas bet. I like Dallas too, but more on that in the morning.

[Swinging Johnson]

John "Smarty Pants" Ryan, there's enough room for all of us Mr. Proprietary Algorithmic Software Genius man. If you've gotten tired of winning with John, visit me here http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-bettin...nfl-picks.html and tell me whatcha think.

I've got 3 big plays for NFL Week 3. Good luck John!

[John Ryan]

I just saw on the weather channel that this is the first time there has been measurable snow in NYC since the Civil War!!!

Anyway. it has caused me some inconvenience getting on-line, but....

Saints are an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points per game over the last 2 seasons.

Cleveland is just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.

And Tebow is NOT the reason that Denver showed up on the radar. Detroit is s 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) as a road favorite of 7 points or less since 1992.

[John Ryan]

John "Smarty Pants" Ryan, there's enough room for all of us Mr. Proprietary Algorithmic Software Genius man. If you've gotten tired of winning with John, visit me here http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-bettin...nfl-picks.html and tell me whatcha think.

I've got 3 big plays for NFL Week 3. Good luck John!

Thanks BOL to you too...

[Salvatore Bing]

John, I signed up just so I can say thank you.

I really appreciate all of the hard work, time, and energy you put in to your selections. You are an asset to this community, and I look forward to your insight and analysis week after week.

Wishing you continued success!

[sweethook]

John, I signed up just so I can say thank you.

I really appreciate all of the hard work, time, and energy you put in to your selections. You are an asset to this community, and I look forward to your insight and analysis week after week.

Wishing you continued success!

100%

[Kooser55]

After last weeks performance by the saints , you dont think there offense will click this week against a rams team with a back up qb?

[soonerstud7804]

john i do like the sf pick, but dosen't denver give up a ton of yards too passing teams at home...det is in a bit of a slump and i just think with best not being available and staff and mega with there backs to the semi wall i think the lions come up big here and bring Timmy back down to reality...idk thats why they call it gambling..congrats on the great week in cfb. dug myself out of a great hole starting with the troy pitt OU (my team) and NEB was great....do you have any opionon or thought on Bellicheck coming of a bye against pitt..I think there record coming off abye of a 3 pnt fav on the road is pretty good i maybe wrong thought i heard something like that.. keep it up john i am up this year and my wife is off my ass....

[Seaton420]

After last weeks performance by the saints , you dont think there offense will click this week against a rams team with a back up qb?

exactly and thats why John Ryan Sucks! he has this OLD "system" and he is tracking games from the lions today for example and saying that the lions are 2-13 as dogs on the roads or some shit like that, & he says dating back til 1992!! Welll the lions sucked ass for about 20 years straight! His system is obv flawed and it doesnt take a genius to say hmmm should i take the sorry ass rams with a backup QB vs a team that can score at will and put up 62 in the 3rd Q before letting off. hmmmmm

[Seaton420]

I just saw on the weather channel that this is the first time there has been measurable snow in NYC since the Civil War!!!

Anyway. it has caused me some inconvenience getting on-line, but....

Saints are an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points per game over the last 2 seasons.

Cleveland is just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.

And Tebow is NOT the reason that Denver showed up on the radar. Detroit is s 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) as a road favorite of 7 points or less since 1992.

Since your using stats from the 1992 lions.. i will go ahead and throw 10 units on the saints -14

The Lions are a Much Much different team. u can throw out all the stats and games played in the 90's.

Whats next well from 47'-57' the bears were 10-0 ATS so we should bet the bears this week to cover!

[Seaton420]

GreenBay won the 1st superbowl so i think they cover this week.