Week 1 Games

[brucesmall]

New to the forum, been following quite a bit. But I started to bet on football last year and boy it was up and down. Unfortunately I created a formula. A simple formula, plus a little bit of reasoning for the conference championships and super bowl and it worked fantastic. So for Week 1 I am using last years stats, now as the season goes on I'd imagine the formula will work better. I can go into detail about the formula I use if anyone is actually interested.

Anywho, I have not done all the games, but so far through what I have done I have a few bets:

Bets I love: Packers -5:
Atlanta -1
K.C. -6.5:

Bets for a smaller amount: G.B./Saints over 46.5
Cle/Cincy under 36.5
Pitt +3(Great in a teaser)

Predictions for the games are G.B. 41 N.O. 24
ATL 28 Chicago 19
K.C. 41 Buffalo 7
Pitt 21 Baltimore 18
Cle 19 Cincy 13
Now I am a Cincinnati Bengals fan, so please don't hate on me, I gotta watch the worst team in football almost every year. So those are it so far I will update picks as I go along. And like i said if your interested in how I arrive at the scores I'll explain.

[billgur]

I can go into detail about the formula I use if anyone is actually interested.

I'd like to know more about your formula - i was lucky one year and happened on a formula that hit over 70% on totals and 63% on sides. it did crappy the next season tho.

[brucesmall]

Okay so step 1: Usual PF vs. PA, this gives you a base score. Then add the three to the home team or subtract from away team(dependent on if home team is defensive or offensive)

Step 2: Average margin of victory at home for the home team and average margin of victory for the away team.

Step 3: Add or subtract margin of victory to the teams.

Step 4: Turnover Differential. This is where I do the thinking I don't have this in a set format.

Step 5: Weather and Field Conditions. These two can take points off or on the board, so I factor this in.

After that you have a score. I then base my decision off the line difference and total difference.


Believe it or not my prediction for the Super Bowl was 31-27, AFC i had 27-19, and NFC I had 20-16. So I was pretty close to the actual total. As stated above each season is different so hopefully this works out well towards the middle. I think this will be great for the playoffs. But I'm going to use last season's stats and personally factor in any moves a team has made.

I'm interested in what you did, if you would share. Maybe combine our formula's and get something cracking.

[brucesmall]

My prediction was pretty good!!!!