SSK's 2010 NFL Thread 3

[RAK]

What book has SD -8?

[ClimbSomeRocks]

SSK you're "teaser/round robin/parlay" team really needs to reevaluate what you're doing... You are really going away from any strengths you started to have by putting all sorts of teams in play... and then on top of that you're hedging them...

You, yourself, even said you weren't projected for a big week.. Yet you touch over 70% of the games in play?

I'm only telling you this because I know.. I used to do what you do... and still do now to a lesser degree...

I know you're trying to show everyone what you can do, but put your ego/ambition in check, and figure out games that have an edge and getting the right number/price... You would get WAY more respect touching 2-3 games and betting them strongly, then whatever it is that's going on here the past few weeks...

Great information here! SSK you're record of ATS picks speaks for itself. Keep those up and be more selective with your plays, I think you're a very profitable capper. Also, your threads are going to continue to get closed if you battle with the haters on this forum. A friend of mine who is becoming a very successful business man said "If you don't have haters... then you're not at the top." Just continue doing what you do best and handicapping games. If you ignore the trolls and haters, they'll fade away. I've seen too many cappers over 60% chased away from this forum because of drama, don't let them add another one to their resume.

[ssk13809]

What book has SD -8?

The book I said I've been using all year

Bookmaker


Cash this in guys, it's a good one. And I hit 70% on teasers long-term anyways (Avg. Bet odds of +100)

2 Team Teaser (6 points)
Chargers -2
Raiders -0.5
Risk 22 to Win 20


Excellent teaser. Chargers are in do or die mode, and trust me, the 49ers still suck. No way they go into San Diego with Alex Smith and no running game (Seattle shut their running game down) and beat the Chargers. Furthermore, Phillip Rivers is not Hasselbeck, and that is the only reason San Francisco "looked" so dominant. 49ers still have a weak secondary. Finally, 49ers play a lot worse on road vs. home. Lock that in.

Raiders vs. Broncos? Broncos are arguably the worst team in the NFL. The Cardinals beat them 43-13. This team looked just horrible with new coach, Orton went 19/41 against one of the worst pass defenses. Raiders on the other hand, destroyed the Broncos 59-21 in Denver, and are solid on both ends. Furthermore, Denver already sucks on the road, and Raiders are a good home team this year. Lock this in too.

[ssk13809]

Great information here! SSK you're record of ATS picks speaks for itself. Keep those up and be more selective with your plays, I think you're a very profitable capper. Also, your threads are going to continue to get closed if you battle with the haters on this forum. A friend of mine who is becoming a very successful business man said "If you don't have haters... then you're not at the top." Just continue doing what you do best and handicapping games. If you ignore the trolls and haters, they'll fade away. I've seen too many cappers over 60% chased away from this forum because of drama, don't let them add another one to their resume.

You think anyone can chase me away? I chase away haters not the other way around.


But you're spot on here

A friend of mine who is becoming a very successful business man said "If you don't have haters... then you're not at the top."

[847jhop10]

SSK who do u like today Gmen or Vikings?

[ssk13809]

SSK who do u like today Gmen or Vikings?

Slight lean on NYG. I had a slight lean on MINN before they lost Home Court Advantage.

[847jhop10]

Slight lean on NYG. I had a slight lean on MINN before they lost Home Court Advantage.

Im with you on this one I think the D shuts down Jackson (or Favre) and Eli has a good game in Detroit

[GoCougs!]

Have a great trip. Thanks for the insite on your picks.

[Pete0]

SSK dont u have a 3g/4g phone ?

I dont know what makes it so busy to just make a simple post
You dont need to bold or fancy ur posts, but u should be able to take 2 min of ur time to log in and say what ur picks are ?

atleast post if there is a lock

c'mon man , help the forum out

[ssk13809]

SSK dont u have a 3g/4g phone ?

I dont know what makes it so busy to just make a simple post
You dont need to bold or fancy ur posts, but u should be able to take 2 min of ur time to log in and say what ur picks are ?

atleast post if there is a lock

c'mon man , help the forum out

Oh trust me, I will be way too busy to do anything. The recruitment process is quite intense, and besides when you are in another country, the last thing you want to do is post on SBR even if it is just for 2 minutes. I'm going to be living it up and there are many things that come on the list before "post your picks on SBR". I barely will have time to put my own picks in.


Nonetheless, I will be posting picks for this week before I leave, and I promise they will be strong. I already posted a couple (check teaser), and will have more. A potential lock.


And besides, I will be back for the playoffs stronger and sharper than ever.

[ssk13809]

I got something on the Ravens too. But I'm not worried. Their the last part of my 10 point teaser. Ravens +7.

I must say, fun game.


This was the only real SAFE bet. Ravens haven't lost by 7+ all year. My teasers always have strong plays. No wonder they hit 70+% long-term (Avg. odds +100)

[Full Time Hobo]

Lock in Ravens.
Good work

[ssk13809]

Alrite, so despite everything going wrong, I break even for the week. All my records have been updated.


So the story for this week, once again, all my parlays failed. It seems like this is my downfall every week. I continue to hit well on straight MLs, I'm hitting about 70% ATS and 70% on Teasers (Avg. Odds of +115), but my parlays suck.


My teasers continue to be strong. I keep saying this and I will say it again, I feel like teasers are very easy to hit. There is no doubt in my mind I can't hit 70+% on Avg. Odds of +100 long-term. Every time I lose a teaser, it's some extreme situation that occurs that causes the loss, such as this week Rodger's injury. Unfortunate and unpredictable. Oh well, still made a good profit on teasers like every week thus far.

My ATS rate continues to be pretty high at around 70% for the season, and my LOCK rate is acceptable as well at 86%.



So with all this going well, how do I possibly not have a winning week every week? Parlays. Thanks to everything else, I was able to break even for the week. But parlays always take me down. Will have to think about that.

[ssk13809]

On to next week.

I already have 2 bets booked


Raiders -6.5
Risk 11 to Win 10


2 Team Teaser (6 points)
Chargers -2
Raiders -0.5
Risk 22 to Win 20





Will talk to my LOCK team to see if the Raiders are a lock or not tomorrow. And might have more ATS plays coming in. Will for sure have more Teasers. And yes I hit 70+% on both long-term.

[ssk13809]

Also, I was thinking of buying a Ferrari next year


My money management team has helped make a Ferrari Plan



I was thinking about buying a nice Ferrari. My Money Management team has estimated costs of 200k for a nice enough Ferrari. They say I will need to make a 10% down payment, and I have easily enough for that. But still will have to pay around 5k per month for it. And then add insurance and maintenance, it will probably be around 8k/month estimated from my MM team.


So the question really is, can I legitimately own a Ferrari with 50k? I can accumalate that much easily by next year (before the NFL season starts). I make a down payment of 20k, that leaves me with 30k. With

- A 70+% Teaser Rate (+100 odds)
- A 70+% ATS Rate, with locks hitting 90+%
- Some solid income from straight MLs
- Less to no Parlays lol

And

- Account in Matchbook (Betting Exchange)
- Multiple Accounts in Different Books (5 Dimes, Bookmaker, Greek, and BetJamaica)


So with 30k to bet, with those rates and money in multiple books, I should make a very big return on that 30k. Just look at here I have gone 120+% in 2 months, with all those losing parlays. 8k shouldn't be much, and after that 30k grows, it will be even easier.





So what do you guys think? Can SSK (and those who tail him) own a nice Ferrari with just 50k? And this is actually a serious question so please answer appropriately. There might be others wondering "If I tailed SSK can I own a Ferrari with 50k?"

Are there any potential problems with this Ferrari Plan? If so, what?

[dugdogg]

Oh trust me, I will be way too busy to do anything. The recruitment process is quite intense, and besides when you are in another country, the last thing you want to do is post on SBR even if it is just for 2 minutes. I'm going to be living it up and there are many things that come on the list before "post your picks on SBR". I barely will have time to put my own picks in.


Nonetheless, I will be posting picks for this week before I leave, and I promise they will be strong. I already posted a couple (check teaser), and will have more. A potential lock.


And besides, I will be back for the playoffs stronger and sharper than ever.

are you getting locked up for 30 days or something??

[Full Time Hobo]

At the rate youre going and capping you are very capable of owning a Ferrari.

Be careful though. you may be getting a little ahead of yourself. Youre still new to the game.

Good Luck

[ssk13809]

At the rate youre going and capping you are very capable of owning a Ferrari.

Be careful though. you may be getting a little ahead of yourself. Youre still new to the game.

Good Luck

Full Time Hobo you probably have the most knowledge on this topic.

Do you think that plan will work? There are some key questions


1. Will those 70+% rates continue to hit?

2. Will those books actually not only pay me, but on time to make my monthly payments

3. Is 50k a good starting amount? Or should I accumulate more? It will leave me with about 30k to bet with. But that should grow. Granted I will have to withdraw every month, but not everything, only the money I need. In other words, 1st month I will need 25% gain on that 30k to get about 8k, and the rest I can keep to let grow. 25% is not very much. I think I passed that mark in 2 weeks. And is even the estimation of 8k/month a good one?


I think #2 is the one I can see becoming the most problematic. What do you think? It won't matter if I keep winning if I don't get paid. And not just paid, but in a timely fashion.

[Full Time Hobo]

If i remember correctly this was the topic where i first met you

Betting exchanges are the best option for you. Look into Matchbook. It is definitely a MUST.
Spread your money out across a few books. don't let your amounts build up to high if you're winning and withdraw often.

Youre already at Bookmaker. Get into 5Dimes or BetJamaica. But definitely get into Matchbook. The lines there are crazy good and incredible value. Dont worry about being paid by Matchbook because you are not betting against the book you are betting against other betters. Look into it you will love it with your Math skills. You will learn to shop lines and scalp with multiple books for guaranteed profit.

Youre very focused on making money week by week but it is unfortunately inevitable that you will go cold every once and a while. This week for instance may be a cold week for you... but it could be worse.

Any A rated book on this site you are guaranteed your money. Some problems may occur with getting paid on time but its all relative and is why you should research the books you will invest in.

[ssk13809]

If i remember correctly this was the topic where i first met you

Betting exchanges are the best option for you. Look into Matchbook. It is definitely a MUST.
Spread your money out across a few books. don't let your amounts build up to high if you're winning and withdraw often.

Youre already at Bookmaker. Get into 5Dimes or BetJamaica. But definitely get into Matchbook. The lines there are crazy good and incredible value. Dont worry about being paid by Matchbook because you are not betting against the book you are betting against other betters. Look into it you will love it with your Math skills. You will learn to shop lines and scalp with multiple books for guaranteed profit.

Youre very focused on making money week by week but it is unfortunately inevitable that you will go cold every once and a while. This week for instance may be a cold week for you... but it could be worse.

Any A rated book on this site you are guaranteed your money. Some problems may occur with getting paid on time but its all relative and is why you should research the books you will invest in.

Matchbook does sound great. But it has to have some drawbacks with all these positives doesn't it?

The main one I found was there is not much flexibility at all. From buying points, to even doing teasers, which as you know are a big part of my profit plan. I mean, Matchbook does sound optimal for straight plays, which are also very important, but for everything else it isn't as good. Nonetheless, the other books can take care of that.

With monthly withdraws, I don't think the amount will be built too high anywhere. Greek I know has the best liquidity, in terms of getting your money and on time. That is what their known for. The others, I'm not so sure.


Even if I stick to only selective Straight ATS plays, with LOCKs, and some strong teasers, yes going cold is inevitable in a given week. I mean, it's hard to imagine going cold playing my strengths (ATS/LOCKs/Teasers/MLs) only, but it can happen I suppose.






I guess living a lifestyle like that, using sports betting to pay off your Ferrari, could be pretty intense every week. I mean just imagine it, you have a great week, "Oh don't have to worry about the Ferrari for the rest of the month here is the 8k", but if you have a bad week, as unlikely as it could be, it could be a long month. I wonder if anyone has tried to own a Ferrari for 50k and use Sports Betting as the main way to pay it off.

[Full Time Hobo]

Matchbook is great for straight bets... as its all you can do with it.
Great value.
Use other books for other bets you make like parlays, teasers, etc.

Its tough. not many make a living off of gambling... which in order to afford a ferrari is essentially what you need to do... pull off enough money to pay it off..

[ssk13809]

Matchbook is great for straight bets... as its all you can do with it.
Great value.
Use other books for other bets you make like parlays, teasers, etc.

Its tough. not many make a living off of gambling... which in order to afford a ferrari is essentially what you need to do... pull off enough money to pay it off..

True, 8k/month is nearly 100k a year. Man it's tough to maintain a Ferrari.


Honest answer now. GIVEN I have 50k by next year, would you honestly recommend I try something like this. And if not, why?

a) You have to prove yourself further. Prove you can hit as well as you do for another 3-4 years (Sample Size ~200-500) before trying something like this.

b) It will have too much hassle with the books. Getting paid how much you are owed on time will just be too big of a hassle.

c) I wouldn't "recommend" it because it's just too stressful. Too much on the line every month.

d) Something else

e) a and/or b and/or c and/or d




Honestly FTH, given 50k, would you honestly trust this "Ferrari Plan"?

[Full Time Hobo]

A and D

You need to prove to yourself that you can manage a large sample size before you engage in a project like this.

Look across this forum. Plenty of threads where guys are doing a project where they are going from like 10k to 1 mill in such and such time period. It is very hard to profit so much unless you are on a crazy hot streak. even then you need to assume it wont last long and you may end of burning in the end. Gambling is meant to be a marathon not a sprint.

Essentially you would need to be much further ahead of your payment plan.
Sure you need 8k a month or whatever but you would basically need it a month before to ensure that you have it.
By that point you would basically be starting every month negative, if you didnt make the full amount, even, or even positive.

In the end, I would trust the plan if I had previous results that proved i could do it.

Lets put it this way... your money management team you got going would need a crazy new plan of attack for a project like this.
50k could be enough it could not be... thats where you need to prove yourself with a large sample size and see how you do week to week / month to month / etc

[ssk13809]

A and D

You need to prove to yourself that you can manage a large sample size before you engage in a project like this.

Look across this forum. Plenty of threads where guys are doing a project where they are going from like 10k to 1 mill in such and such time period. It is very hard to profit so much unless you are on a crazy hot streak. even then you need to assume it wont last long and you may end of burning in the end. Gambling is meant to be a marathon not a sprint.

Essentially you would need to be much further ahead of your payment plan.
Sure you need 8k a month or whatever but you would basically need it a month before to ensure that you have it.
By that point you would basically be starting every month negative, if you didnt make the full amount, even, or even positive.

In the end, I would trust the plan if I had previous results that proved i could do it.

Lets put it this way... your money management team you got going would need a crazy new plan of attack for a project like this.
50k could be enough it could not be... thats where you need to prove yourself with a large sample size and see how you do week to week / month to month / etc

Hmm interesting insight.

You're right that I might need 8k from the month before to make ensure I will have it for the next month.
However, other thing that we aren't factoring in, is that will not be my only source of income. The months where I am not able to accumulate 8k, there still will be another source of income that can be used in the rare occasions where I go negative for a month.

But once again, I am very confident I can pull off what I'm doing at the pace I'm doing it at. I've suffered some bad beats lately (I never get a good beat for some reason), but still have managed to lose practically nothing somehow.

And once you cut down these parlays that always lose, the future looks very bright.








At the end of the day, who wouldn't want a nice Ferrari for 50k.

[ssk13809]

The other thing is NFL is not on all year



But thankfully I'm pretty strong at the NBA too.

[ssk13809]

My weekly 10 point teaser winner


3 Team 10 Point Teaser
Texans +11.5
Browns +12
Ravens +9
Risk 12 to Win 10


I also like Browns ML as well. Colt Mccoy should be back.

Browns +110 ML
Risk 5.5 to Win 5

[bobbyk1133]

I thought you were taking the Orient Express to Asia to recruit a new team of ninja statisticians?

[ssk13809]

So I talked to my LOCK team, no locks this week. All I have is the Raiders as an ATS pick. Apparently they didn't like it enough for it to be a LOCK.

[ssk13809]

Some more teasers though (I hit 70% on Teasers Long-Term Avg. Odds of +100)

2 Team Teaser (6.5 points)
Saints +7.5
Jets +12
Risk 24 to Win 20


2 Team ML Parlay
Colts -235
Buccaneers -260
Risk 10.3 to Win 10


7 Team Teaser (9 points)
Chargers pk
Colts +4
Texans +10.5
Browns +11
Eagles +12
Saints +10
Jets +14.5
Risk 4.3 to Win 10

And let me split that one in 2 just in case 1 play loses by a miracle. Instead of losing 15 on 1, I will lose 5 overall.


3 Team Teaser (8 points)
Chargers -1
Colts +3
Browns +10
Risk 10.5 to Win 10


4 Team Teaser (9 points)
Eagles +12
Saints +10
Jets +14.5
Texans +10.5
Risk 10 to Win 10




So only 1 parlay, I think that will work towards my favor. I like my last teaser too. Don't see any of those losing.

[ssk13809]

So this is my total action for the weekend

Week 15 Play Card

Raiders -6.5
Risk 11 to Win 10

2 Team Teaser (6 points)
Chargers -2
Raiders -0.5
Risk 22 to Win 20

3 Team 10 Point Teaser
Texans +11.5
Browns +12
Ravens +9
Risk 12 to Win 10

Browns +110 ML
Risk 5.5 to Win 5

2 Team Teaser (6.5 points)
Saints +7.5
Jets +12
Risk 24 to Win 20

2 Team ML Parlay
Colts -235
Buccaneers -260
Risk 10.3 to Win 10

7 Team Teaser (9 points)
Chargers pk
Colts +4
Texans +10.5
Browns +11
Eagles +12
Saints +10
Jets +14.5
Risk 4.3 to Win 10

3 Team Teaser (8 points)
Chargers -1
Colts +3
Browns +10
Risk 10.5 to Win 10

4 Team Teaser (9 points)
Eagles +12
Saints +10
Jets +14.5
Texans +10.5
Risk 10 to Win 10

[ssk13809]

Yeah a lot of teasers this week, and have minimized the parlays.

But I hit 70% (Avg. Odds of +100) on teasers long-term, might as well put my skills to the test. All those teasers should cover.



If anyone has any questions on any of my picks, or comments, let me know.

[dwang0725]

ATS is where real cappers make their money. Stick to the basics!

[ssk13809]

ATS is where real cappers make their money. Stick to the basics!

I can hit 70% long-term on teasers avg. odds of +100. You want me to stop playing teasers?

[bobbyk1133]

How do you know you hit 70% long-term on teasers if you only started playing them a few weeks ago?

[ssk13809]

How do you know you hit 70% long-term on teasers if you only started playing them a few weeks ago?

Projections


Besides they just naturally feel so easy to me. They fit my style.