Patriots At Dolphins ...............lock.thats Right,i Said Lock!!!!

justdoingit · 10-15-07, 10:05 AM

I agree with you it seems to me that these huge spreads dont work in the NFL i mean they cant keep covering these right im sure there is one of those crazy stats 0-6 teams at home in a divisional game against an undefeated team when their opponent has won by more then seven are 35-2 ATS

Thomasha7 · 10-15-07, 10:26 AM

Interesting thought. Well have to see what happens.

ShamsWoof10 · 10-15-07, 10:28 AM

Miami has always played the Patriots tough no matter who was good or bad that season... It's not unimagineable for Miami to beat them outright... Some teams can just match up with other teams however the differance between now and then is Miami's soooooorrrry as* Defense although I do agree 14 may be too many...

MJFtheGenius · 10-15-07, 10:30 AM

I think Maimi shows great value here, I'm with you man.

Tchocky · 10-15-07, 12:04 PM

I wouldn't be surprised to see Belichik resting Brady and Moss or at least limiting their playing time assuming they are going to get the win. Brady's shoulder is alway suspect.

mshanedub420 · 10-15-07, 12:11 PM

I bet Miami gets rolled and if Miami wins(by the spread) it will be a ****'n nailbiter, I mean trent green most likely wont do shit all year, the backup QB backup sucks and the team really seems like they dont care, i say Pats 45-17, dont forget belichik takes every team sereiously

mv09 · 10-15-07, 12:43 PM

Originally posted by ShamsWoof10

Miami has always played the Patriots tough no matter who was good or bad that season... It's not unimagineable for Miami to beat them outright... Some teams can just match up with other teams however the differance between now and then is Miami's soooooorrrry as* Defense although I do agree 14 may be too many...

Miami used to match up well because they could pressure Brady without having to blitz with an incredibly talented defensive line. Their D-Line is old and meh now. Their RB play is grossly overrated and their QB, Cleo Lemon played AF2 just a couple of years ago. Miami's Oline is also terrible.

Miami is 6th in Passing Defense
Miami is 31st in Rushing Defense

Miami is 19th in Offensive 3rd Down Convertions (40%)
NEng is 1st in Defensive 3rd Down Stops (30.6)

NEng is 5rd in Offensive 3rd Down Convertions (48.5%)
Miami is 32nd in Defensive 3rd Down Stops (53%)

NEng is 1st with a +7 TakeAway/GiveAway Ratio
Miami is 31st with a -5 TakeAway/GiveAway Ratio

In short:
People run all over Miami
Miami can not get off the field on 3rd downs, while New England converts all the time.
New England causes turnovers frequently, while Miami gives the ball away alot.
Miami struggles to keep their offense on the field, while New England gets off ALOT (#1)

This is a no action for me (right now) because I hate to give up that many points, but Id take New England if I had to.

This game has teaser written all over it for me, though

The Baron · 10-15-07, 02:07 PM

I disagree. Just because the Dolphins are gonna play hard and the Patriots think they are "unstoppable" doesnt mean they'll loose. The Pats will crush the Dolphins.

jrcaces · 10-15-07, 03:50 PM

Pats cover easily

SBR Lou · 10-15-07, 03:52 PM

I didn't see this thread, just started a similar one myself (without dropping L word of course). I don't agree with you that Miami +14 is a good bet, but by the same token I wouldn't take NE -17.

etothep · 10-15-07, 04:26 PM

Originally posted by bradleysnyder

Fish +14 Or More By Game Time.

Everyone Thinks The Patriots Are Gonna Roll This Game And They Very Well Could,but Dont Count On That.here Is My Reasoning For Betting The Dolphins With The Points.believe It Or Not I Think Miami Has A Chance At An Outright Win.heres Why

1.the Patriots Think They Are Unstoppable Which Is Very True,but I Look At This As A Weakness.

2.miami Has Not Won A Game.kinda Like The Saints Situation Last Night

3.miam Is At Home

4.when Your 0-6 You Better Do "something" To Redeem Yourself As Worthless Nfl Talent.

5.everyone Will Forget About The Dolphins First 6 Games And It's A New Beginning If The Fish Can Beat The Patriots Outright.

6.miami Is So Awful,who Wants To Bet On Them At All..........the Sportsbooks??????thats About It.

7.if You Can Beat The Best Team In The Nfl It It Will Prove Something That Has Been Done Time And Time Again........"any Given Sunday"

Here She Is In A Nut Shell Fellas.dont Be Fooled By The Patriots Amazing Ability As They Have A Lot More Important Games Ahead Of Them.they Could Try Out Some New Things On The Dolphins As They Expect To Walk All Over Them.most Important Is That New England Will Most Likley Win The Super Bowl Reguardless Of The Outcome Against Miami.the Dolphins Have More To Prove Than Anyone In The Nfl And You Guys Know They Would Love To Roll The Patriots At Home.the Dolphins Could Win This Game ,but I Doubt That................what I Dont Doubt Is That The Spread Is Wayyyyyyyyyyy To High And Everyone Is On The Patriots Bandwagon.they Are Division Teams And Everyone Knows That Games Like This Could And Should Be Close.either Way I Dont See A 14 Pt Win By Either Team.

Im Rolling Out A Very Very Large Wager On This Spread Next Week.not Sure For How Much,but I Will Let You All Know Once My Wager Is Finalized

this makes me feel much safer about my pick (the pats)

thanks for your lock and keep the fades coming

area51steve · 10-15-07, 04:28 PM

Originally posted by etothep

this makes me feel much safer about my pick (the pats)

thanks for your lock and keep the fades coming

Well said etothep.. This thread is a joke..

elliott0924 · 10-15-07, 04:31 PM

I have been telling everybody that NE will run the table. Just to much talent up there.

elliott0924 · 10-15-07, 04:31 PM

I like NE over Miami by 21.

HAPPY BOY · 10-15-07, 05:11 PM

Originally posted by ShamsWoof10

Miami has always played the Patriots tough no matter who was good or bad that season... It's not unimagineable for Miami to beat them outright... Some teams can just match up with other teams however the differance between now and then is Miami's soooooorrrry as* Defense although I do agree 14 may be too many...

I agree with your statement had this been last year two key points here though: (1). miami had a stout D that gave Brady fits his own words. Jason taylor had carrer days against Brady. This however is not the same Dolphin D I have never seen a Defense deteriate so fast in such a short time. (2) and this is not the same Pariots O. They have a sick passing attack and Miami's secondary is arguably the worst in the entire NFL. As a life long Dolphin fan I couldn't touch this game.

Redchevy · 10-15-07, 05:26 PM

No way Miami even comes close to covering this number. Belichick has a very special team this year and he knows it. There will be NO letdown here as Miami has kept it close over the last few years. However, Miami's D this year is a shell of itself from prior years, they can't stop anyone, running or passing. On 790 The Ticket this morning, they went back and forth with the football fanatics down here about what number they would need to take the Fins in this game. The general consensus down here, is that IF the Fins were getting 27 to 28 1/2 they MIGHT lay a G on them. What's that tell you about how bad the locals think they are? Don't overthink this game, NE rolls again in the 38-45 range to 10-13 and that's if Miami gets a LUCKY 7. Watch Welker have another career day, they could put these numbers up without a running back!! PS, I live in FT. Lauderdale.

prop · 10-15-07, 05:28 PM

My biggest bet of the football season is Pats -13.5 -115 in this game.
I don't bet large %'s though. This is a 3 unit play for me (unit =1.33% of roll).

mshanedub420 · 10-15-07, 05:32 PM

Originally posted by etothep

this makes me feel much safer about my pick (the pats)

thanks for your lock and keep the fades coming

hahaha not joking

WestsidePete · 10-15-07, 06:18 PM

Hey guys...BradleyS has picked a number of big winners...he may come on strong in responses here but he has done quite well overall...

area51steve · 10-15-07, 08:13 PM

Originally posted by bradleysnyder

hey steve,why dont you go back and review all my posts and wager amounts for the last year......COME ON MOUTH.CALL ME OUT IF I HAVE NOT MADE A PROFIT ON HERE.I WON 14 BASEBALL PARLAYS IN A ROW AND IM SURE SOMEONE READING THIS CAN BACK ME ON THAT.CHECK MY RECORD OUT.I DID LOSE 10,000 AND WON OVER 40 IN 1 WEEK.ALL PLAYS ARE POSTED ON THIS FORUM SIR.CHECK IT OUT.

chill bradley.. No reason to throw a fit.. roll some weed or crack open a cold one and kick the f*ck back.. we're all just tryin to make sum money here and takin the dolphins is gonna lose people some money.Change your pick to the pats and you can thank me later.The patriots are the sh*t and the dolphins are a piece of sh*t.. It just makes a lot of us sick when u think the pats cant cover the fish.. thats all..

pokernut9999 · 10-15-07, 08:30 PM

Originally posted by Tchocky

I wouldn't be surprised to see Belichik resting Brady and Moss or at least limiting their playing time assuming they are going to get the win. Brady's shoulder is alway suspect.

I doubt they will rest anyone here. They lost last year 21-0 in Miami.

B1GER1C828 · 10-15-07, 09:00 PM

pats will win by around 24+ i hate the "miami is due" and "pats r due for an upset" its bs belicheck doesnt over look teams pats will win and win by more then 14..easily

bradleysnyder · 10-16-07, 06:23 AM

it seems way to easy to take new england -14........

Skidcom · 10-16-07, 08:10 AM

There has to be a Patriots letdown eventually. Just hope I don't go broke before it happens

mshanedub420 · 10-16-07, 07:12 PM

14 baseball parlays in a row..................................... ........................................ ........................................ ........................................ ........................................ your not sylvia brown or jesus come on now

Redchevy · 10-16-07, 07:24 PM

Originally posted by Skidcom

There has to be a Patriots letdown eventually. Just hope I don't go broke before it happens

Why do you say that? There ABSOLUTELY won't be any letdown with this team. Belichick is on a mission this year and he has the personnel to back it up. Don't you get it yet? This team is money in the bank!!!!!! Get on the money train!!!!!

Redchevy · 10-16-07, 07:27 PM

Originally posted by bradleysnyder

it seems way to easy to take new england -14........

It is easy Bradley, don't sweat the points. NE will be up 27-3 at the half. And if you have the Fins + 16 or 17, it's you that will be sweating. They're money this year. Forget your hatred and climb on board. Don't over think this!!!!! PS NE's killed the books for 6 weeks and it won't stop here!!!

WCSC · 10-16-07, 07:41 PM

Outcome Of This Ne Miami Game

Many Of The Betting Public Foresees A New England Crusher...especially Since Their # 1 Reciever Is Going To San Diego.....so Much Money Will Be Put On N.e. One Will Definately Get Overvalue Line If U Like Miami...but The Truth Be Told Is That This Line Is Going To Move And Make This Play More Enticing To Miami Fans...... I Really Dont Like The Game Personally Cuz It Will Go Down To The Wire Making U Sweat Your Money One Way Or The Other.......if I Had To Choose I Would Take A Tired Miami Defense Giving Good Field Position Throughout The Whole Gm / With A Miami Offense Having A Out Of The Ordinary Big Game Without Their Big Reciever...the Patriots Are Still The Patriots So I Will Go With The Overe Once Agan In This High Scoring Affair..

Pac-man Rich

Deceptive · 10-17-07, 02:32 AM

Dud bradleysynder let me save u some $$$$ the most important stat of this game is that N.E. lost to miami last year. When everyone tried to say that N.E. won and was winning because of cheating we all know how N.E. responded. belichick holds grudges and this has payback written all over it, i mean miami got blown out by oakland lets not look at what should be but what is, dallas is way better team than miami and i believe the spread was covered. new england will fail but not a blow out spread but a 10 or less line. FUNNY BUT THE BOOKS TRY TO PUSH THE PUBLIC AWAY FROM THIS LINE KINDA OF DECEPTIVE

RageWizard · 10-17-07, 06:37 AM

In the past Miami has been Brady's kryptonite, but come on, Miami's secondary got exposed by Dallas, and just last week the clowns exposed them for 41 points. Then there's Miami's offense that is good for at least one turn over a game. Even Miami's special teams are just that "special" as in the olympics. They are now the most disfunctional frachise in the NFL, and just yesterday traded there best reciever away to San Diego for a 2nd round pick next year which they will probably blow on another worthless return man like Mr. Ginn. I think N.E. covers the now 17 points by half time and by the end of the game will probably cover the over by themselves. The only chance for Miami is for hurricane type weather with heavy winds so that N.E. has to run. Even that won't do it because Miami's run defense sucks too, but at least the score won't be an over. Take N.E. and the over and cash in by half time.

whitesoxrock33 · 10-17-07, 07:24 AM

NE covers easily

Skidcom · 10-17-07, 08:06 AM

Very surprised at the opening number. There should be more value on a Miami play.perhaps by kickoff. Does anyone think it can get to 17?

ws1975 · 10-17-07, 08:53 AM

Miami may not even score in this game. Take NE in a rout. NE won't be challenged in until the Indy game in a few weeks.

bradleysnyder · 10-17-07, 11:28 AM

the masses are asses.headed straight to the slaughter house.take the dolphins and the points