NFL - Situational Plays - SDQL

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  • Consigliere
    SBR High Roller
    • 02-10-13
    • 126

    #176
    HF and division=o: division and day=Thursday and total <45 Something for the under tonight
    Comment
    • Mako-SBR
      SBR Sharp
      • 10-15-13
      • 492

      #177
      FortySix, your posts continue to have smilies in the code despite JMon posting about how to correct that multiple times. Please edit and clean your posts after you make them, thanks.

      For those who haven't seen it:

      INSTRUCTIONS TO ELIMINATE SMILIES (thx J)

      1. Make your post as normal
      2. Edit your post.
      3. Click disable smilies from text
      4. Save.

      Comment
      • Consigliere
        SBR High Roller
        • 02-10-13
        • 126

        #178
        Originally posted by Consigliere
        HF and division=o: division and day=Thursday and total <45 Something for the under tonight
        Big under hit. Any promising trends for this weekend?
        Comment
        • Mako-SBR
          SBR Sharp
          • 10-15-13
          • 492

          #179
          Originally posted by Consigliere
          Big under hit. Any promising trends for this weekend?
          That was a good one, nice Consig!

          I'm on three for the weekend, do not like all three picks, but that's the game with SDQL...have to bet the games your queries point to if you believe your scenarios are sound (thanks to JMon and others who contributed to these):

          A and P:L and p:AL and op:L and 4<=game number<=11 and season>=2008

          H and 4< tS(ats margin>0,N=7)< 7 and o:rest<9 and week<=15 and week!=14 and week!=13 and season>=2008

          H and p:AW and op:HW and (5.5 >= line >= 1.5 or line >= 8.5) and division!=NFC East and season>=2008
          Comment
          • Consigliere
            SBR High Roller
            • 02-10-13
            • 126

            #180
            Originally posted by Mako-SBR
            That was a good one, nice Consig!

            I'm on three for the weekend, do not like all three picks, but that's the game with SDQL...have to bet the games your queries point to if you believe your scenarios are sound (thanks to JMon and others who contributed to these):

            A and P:L and p:AL and op:L and 4<=game number<=11 and season>=2008

            H and 4< tS(ats margin>0,N=7)< 7 and o:rest<9 and week<=15 and week!=14 and week!=13 and season>=2008

            H and p:AW and op:HW and (5.5 >= line >= 1.5 or line >= 8.5) and division!=NFC East and season>=2008
            Awesome. Will check these out. I have nothing in my bank for NFL trends but will try and do some legwork this weekend and report back anything promising.
            Comment
            • FortySix
              SBR High Roller
              • 02-18-14
              • 134

              #181
              Hey Mako,

              With H and p:AW and op:HW and (5.5 >= line >= 1.5 or line >= 8.5) and division!=NFC East and season>=2008, whats the play? When I put that into SDQL there isn't any active queries..
              Comment
              • JMon
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 12-11-09
                • 9800

                #182
                Originally posted by FortySix
                Hey Mako,

                With H and p:AW and op:HW and (5.5 >= line >= 1.5 or line >= 8.5) and division!=NFC East and season>=2008, whats the play? When I put that into SDQL there isn't any active queries..
                It moved out of the line parameter. Easy check is too simply remove it from the query
                Comment
                • JMon
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 12-11-09
                  • 9800

                  #183
                  Originally posted by Mako-SBR
                  That was a good one, nice Consig!

                  I'm on three for the weekend, do not like all three picks, but that's the game with SDQL...have to bet the games your queries point to if you believe your scenarios are sound (thanks to JMon and others who contributed to these):

                  A and P:L and p:AL and op:L and 4<=game number<=11 and season>=2008

                  H and 4< tS(ats margin>0,N=7)< 7 and o:rest<9 and week<=15 and week!=14 and week!=13 and season>=2008

                  H and p:AW and op:HW and (5.5 >= line >= 1.5 or line >= 8.5) and division!=NFC East and season>=2008
                  Yes, I was going to post this. I will be on the Bears...love the ML/margin of victory in this revenge angle! May put a little on the ML.
                  Comment
                  • JMon
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 12-11-09
                    • 9800

                    #184
                    Over - Mia/Det

                    SDQL- Play over in a non-conference matchup; on a road team with a winning streak of three more.

                    A and streak>=3 and conference != o:conference and 32<total<47.5 and losses<6 and 3>= line>=-10
                    Comment
                    • emceeaye
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 08-20-13
                      • 704

                      #185
                      Can't remember where I got this but although it favors Panthers ATS, I'm reticent to act on team-specific queries of low sample sizes across multiple seasons...just in case, here it is:

                      (team=Cowboys or team=Eagles) and F and p:F and season>=2011
                      Comment
                      • Consigliere
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 02-10-13
                        • 126

                        #186
                        Tough week on the trend bets this week. Luckily I went with GB not CHI and stayed away from MNF. The OU trend I posted is active again this Thursday with Bills vs Dolphins. Like this pick a lot, two solid defences and two struggling offences. HF and division=o:division and day=Thursday and total <=45
                        Comment
                        • Mako-SBR
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 10-15-13
                          • 492

                          #187
                          NFL is just tough for situational analysis because of a variety of factors...it makes the NBA seem like child's play in comparison.

                          Things like Special Team play being so variable week to week (fluke muffed punts, runbacks for TDs, etc), prime-time games versus non-prime-time (tough to quantify whether a scenario is still valid if it occurs on SNF or MNF where stars tend to shine brighter---see GB/CHI this past MNF, sigh), the smaller sample sizes due to limited games (try creating good TNF trends, nearly impossible due to low volume and Thanksgiving screwing it up), etc, etc, etc.

                          Not the easiest thing to do, but definitely looking forward to seeing how the NFL tab of nash's master sheet grows.
                          Comment
                          • Consigliere
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 02-10-13
                            • 126

                            #188
                            Yeah NFL has been tough the last few years. Like you said, crazy things happen. Also the trend to more passing seems to make results more variable and difficult to predict. Will work on NFL some more this week to see if anything. Feels like this time in the year is prime time to tail the big spreads...going to do some work on this angle.
                            Comment
                            • mdunlap3
                              SBR MVP
                              • 02-18-13
                              • 1847

                              #189
                              Query I just started fooling with...small N, but looks pretty solid, worth a shot I think. FINS SU

                              The Bills playing an away game against a divisional opponent coming off a loss where they scored less than 14 points since 2005.

                              team=Bills and A and p:L and DIV and points<14 and season>=2005
                              Comment
                              • Consigliere
                                SBR High Roller
                                • 02-10-13
                                • 126

                                #190
                                Originally posted by Consigliere
                                HF and division=o: division and day=Thursday and total <45 Something for the under tonight
                                Another Thursday night division game under hit big time...keep on rolling! I will post any compelling trends I find but probably not too much time this weekend to look at.
                                Comment
                                • Mako-SBR
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 10-15-13
                                  • 492

                                  #191
                                  Originally posted by Consigliere
                                  Another Thursday night division game under hit big time...keep on rolling! I will post any compelling trends I find but probably not too much time this weekend to look at.
                                  Nice Consig!

                                  That game was a perfect example of what we were talking about this week in terms of difficulty with SDQL for NFL forecasting...from the crazy "safety" call, to the game-changing pass interference call shortly after, to the Buffalo kicker missing by a few inches...the variables in a typical NFL game are just insane to try and get a handle on.
                                  Comment
                                  • b1slickguy
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 11-24-11
                                    • 11959

                                    #192
                                    HF and rest>10 and po:TY - p:TY >=150 and season>=1996
                                    Comment
                                    • moshi
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 12-18-11
                                      • 801

                                      #193
                                      A couple I am looking at this week:

                                      50>=Andrew Luckasses>=35 and Andrew Luck:completions/Andrew Luckasses>.45

                                      ATS 20-3-1 (87.0%) Have been riding this all year. 5-1 in 2014.

                                      team=Packers and p:margin>=3 and po:PENY>=95 and NB and 19971201<=date

                                      ATS 11-0-0 (100%) but there's also...

                                      4< tS(ats margin>0,N=7)< 7 and H and month=11 and 2008<=season and o:rest<9

                                      ...which is on the other side, so may lay off this one.

                                      Marshawn Lynch:rushing yards>=113 and NB and season>=2011

                                      ATS 12-0-0 (100%)

                                      team=Broncos and F and p:AFW and date>=20061029

                                      OU 13-3-0 (81.2%)

                                      I know there's some weaknesses around player/team-based queries so play at your own risk !
                                      Comment
                                      • JMon
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 12-11-09
                                        • 9800

                                        #194
                                        Consider the Packers today!

                                        9>=line >= 3.5 and 20>=week >= 7 and WP >= 77 and 1993<=season

                                        contrarian view where we want to fade a winning dog in latter half of the season...a on heater.
                                        Comment
                                        • JMon
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 12-11-09
                                          • 9800

                                          #195
                                          Consider the Broncos today!

                                          Basic premise behind this sdql is playing a favorite where their run defense is performing good the last few games and conversely their oppt's rushing offense is not.

                                          SDQL

                                          -9.5<=line<=-5 and po:rushing yards<=99 and ppo:rushing yards<=99 and op:rushing yards<=99 and opp:rushing yards<=99 and oppp:rushing yards<=99
                                          Comment
                                          • JMon
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 12-11-09
                                            • 9800

                                            #196
                                            Originally posted by b1slickguy
                                            HF and rest>10 and po:TY - p:TY >=150 and season>=1996
                                            week > 8 and wins = 0 and D and conference = o:conference and losses > 6 and o:wins > 2

                                            Winless conference dogs (seven or more losses) seem to cover in the latter part of the season. It tightens up as divisional game.
                                            Comment
                                            • moshi
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 12-18-11
                                              • 801

                                              #197
                                              Something on the Bears/Bucs game in week 12:

                                              team=Bears and NDIV and nIV and total<47 and season>=2010

                                              OU 16-1 (94.1%) since 2010.
                                              Comment
                                              • Jay Price
                                                SBR Sharp
                                                • 07-10-10
                                                • 284

                                                #198
                                                I cherry picked this one, but tossing it out there for those that believe:

                                                po:division=division and ppo:division=division and o:division=division and HD and total>40 and total<44

                                                Raiders

                                                16-3-1 (7.70, 84.2%)
                                                Comment
                                                • Cutler'sThumb
                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                  • 12-06-11
                                                  • 287

                                                  #199
                                                  Hi guys, maybe someone can come up with the correct query for this trend I manually back tested last summer. I've been fiddling around with it but the language is really still all greek to me.
                                                  Here's what I got manually: Inter conference dome games OVER is 60-32 since '08. I think that result is with me eliminating the game if both teams are dome teams. The idea is unfamiliar teams playing each other on a fast surface = more scoring.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • JMon
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 12-11-09
                                                    • 9800

                                                    #200
                                                    Originally posted by Cutler'sThumb
                                                    Hi guys, maybe someone can come up with the correct query for this trend I manually back tested last summer. I've been fiddling around with it but the language is really still all greek to me.
                                                    Here's what I got manually: Inter conference dome games OVER is 60-32 since '08. I think that result is with me eliminating the game if both teams are dome teams. The idea is unfamiliar teams playing each other on a fast surface = more scoring.
                                                    something like this???? non conference on artificial turf, but only back 2010 - non sure how to eliminate games if both are dome teams.

                                                    conference!=o:conference and surface=artificial and 2010<=season and H
                                                    Comment
                                                    • JMon
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 12-11-09
                                                      • 9800

                                                      #201
                                                      Consider a small favorite (ATL) in second half the season, good offense against a average defense, coming off win by 6 pts or less

                                                      F and 27>=tA(points)>=23 and 23>=oA(ooints)>=18 and game number>=8 and p:W and p:margin<=6 and 2005<=season and line>-5.5
                                                      Comment
                                                      • mdunlap3
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 02-18-13
                                                        • 1847

                                                        #202
                                                        Dr.M is really struggling as of late....I believe he is 1-4 this week. He was horrible the last two weeks too. Very frustrating to say the least...
                                                        Comment
                                                        • JMon
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 12-11-09
                                                          • 9800

                                                          #203
                                                          NFL and sdql is tough..least favorite sport to use it. I think mako warned of the cherry picker
                                                          Comment
                                                          • nash13
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 01-21-14
                                                            • 1122

                                                            #204
                                                            NFL style of sport is no easy field to use a tool like SDQL. Few Games, few situations that work long term.
                                                            Best sport to use for me is MLB. Tons of games, tons of situations. Simple as that.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • JMon
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 12-11-09
                                                              • 9800

                                                              #205
                                                              Originally posted by nash13
                                                              NFL style of sport is no easy field to use a tool like SDQL. Few Games, few situations that work long term.
                                                              Best sport to use for me is MLB. Tons of games, tons of situations. Simple as that.
                                                              agree...luv NBA as well.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • mdunlap3
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 02-18-13
                                                                • 1847

                                                                #206
                                                                Can't disagree with you gentlemen, just frustrating ya know. You guys mess with college basketball at all? I've been looking at this website kenpom.com, he has some sick stats. Been doing pretty well so far this season, you guys should check it out.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Cutler'sThumb
                                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                                  • 12-06-11
                                                                  • 287

                                                                  #207
                                                                  Originally posted by JMon

                                                                  conference!=o:conference and surface=artificial and 2010<=season and H
                                                                  Thanks JMon! This is pretty close...it gives us any game played on an artificial surface, which would seem to fit the overall logic. Bigger sample size that still hits at 60% (although only 11-12 this year). Maybe worth rolling with, but this season's results are a little troubling.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • JMon
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 12-11-09
                                                                    • 9800

                                                                    #208
                                                                    Consider the Jets ATS, possible ML

                                                                    AFC divisional revenge game

                                                                    PIV and P:L and DIV and P:season = season and AD and conference = AFC and 18>game number>6 and line<7 and 1992<=season and losses<11 and o:wins<11
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • parlayin
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 11-03-07
                                                                      • 1091

                                                                      #209
                                                                      what's a good way to include high-scoring and low-scoring teams in a query? Like average ppg
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • JMon
                                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                        • 12-11-09
                                                                        • 9800

                                                                        #210
                                                                        Originally posted by parlayin
                                                                        what's a good way to include high-scoring and low-scoring teams in a query? Like average ppg
                                                                        Using the summative method with the points parameter would probably be the best.

                                                                        For example....below you will find teams that averages 30 or more points a game in 2014.

                                                                        tA(points)>=30 and 2014=season
                                                                        Comment
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