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Tenn blowing it.Comment -
Wow Tenn blowsComment -
damn tenn...they did look horrible!Comment -
Savannah vs wisky (-27, 111)
Wisconsin looks to head into final exams on a positive note when it hosts Savannah State. The No. 15 Badgers are coming off a tougher-than-expected victory at Milwaukee on Tuesday, rallying late after blowing a 17-point lead in the second half.
The Badgers rank at or near the top of Division I in most defensive categories, leading the nation in points allowed (45.7) and holding opponents to 34 percent shooting. A balanced lineup features four players scoring in double figures, led by junior center Jared Berggren (12.3). Senior All-American point guard Jordan Taylor averages 11.8 points and 5.5 assists for Wisconsin, which commits the fewest turnovers (8.4) of any team in the country.
However, the Badgers had a tough time with UW-Milwaukee the last time they took the court. Wisconsin slipped away with a 60-54 road victory, but couldn't cover the number as a 10.5-point favorite.
The Badgers should be able to get back on track in front of their home fans, but there's no way we're biting on this fat line.
Pick: Under
Oral roberts vs gonzaga (-11.5, 139.5)
This isn't exactly the way the Bulldogs drew it up.
Gonzaga has dropped two straight, losing at Illinois before dropping a 74-67 decision at home to Michigan State. Seven-foot center Rob Sacre continues to shoulder a big load and dropped 16 points while adding seven rebounds in the losing effort. He's putting up 16.1 points and 7.1 rebounds per game on the year.
"Shake off the dust and get ready, and get all that losing out of our system," Sacre told reporters ahead of Thursday's game with Oral Roberts. "[We need to] really focus on getting better and go after these guys. We're really hungry for these guys."
They had better be, because the Golden Eagles are coming off a big win. Damon Bell-Holter hit a heave at the buzzer to give Oral Roberts a 58-55 victory over Arkansas-Little Rock.
This is a big one for the 'Zags and they'll show up.
Pick: BulldogsComment -
Who’s hot
NFL: The under is 8-1 in Atlanta’s last nine.
NHL: Detroit has won 10 of its last 12.
NHL: Vancouver has won nine of its last 11.
NCAAB: Wisconsin is 9-3 against the spread following an ATS loss.
Who’s not
NFL: Jacksonville is 2-5-1 against the spread in its last eight road games.
NHL: Edmonton is 1-7 in its last eight meetings with Phoenix.
NHL: Tampa Bay is 1-7 in its last eight.
NCAAB: George Washington is 1-5 against the spread in its last six home games.
Key stat
17– The St. Louis Blues fired Davis Payne earlier this season and brought in veteran coach Ken Hitchcock in hopes he could improve the team’s defense. The Blues are now the NHL’s best under bet, checking under the total 17 times this season compared to eight overs. They host the New York Rangers Thursday night as -135 favorites with a 5-goal over/under.
Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked
Josh Scobee, Jacksonville Jaguars - Scobee did not kick in practice Tuesday and was limited Wednesday, leaving his status in question for Thursday's game against the Atlanta Falcons. Scobee suffered a groin injury in Sunday's win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Jacksonville signed kicker Brandon Contu to the practice squad Tuesday as insurance in case Scobee can't go. Scobee has connected on 18 of 20 field goal attempts this season, including five of six attempts from 50 yards or longer.
Game of the day
jags vs atl(-12, 42.5)
Notable quotable
“We can’t have anything happen to him. We just can’t. It will just ruin the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. If something were to happen to him we would be devastated and hearts would be broken. We play for him.” – Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end Kellen Winslow about rumors that coach Raheem Morris is on the hot seat after seven consecutive straight up losses. The Bucs host Dallas as 7-point underdogs Saturday.
Notes and tips
The Atlanta Falcons opened around -11 for their home game against Jacksonville at most books, but could be found as high as 12.5-point favorites as of Wednesday evening were split just about down the middle with 51 percent backing the underdog Jaguars.
The Orlando Magic made it clear on Wednesday that they are keeping Dwight Howard. The Magic informed teams interested in the All-Star center that they intend to start the season with Howard on the roster, Yahoo! Sports reported. The news comes on the heels of the Portland Trail Blazers becoming a third team in a rumored blockbuster trade that would aid in the New Jersey Nets acquiring Howard from the Magic. Howard is considered one of the best big men in the game today. The 26-year-old averaged 22.9 points and 14.1 rebounds last season.
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger watched practice on Wednesday wearing a walking boot as opposed to cleats. Roethlisberger was brandishing a noticeable limp after suffering a high ankle sprain late in the first half of Thursday's 14-3 win over the AFC North rival Cleveland Browns. He was able to return and play the entire second half. Backups Charlie Batch and Dennis Dixon are both planning as if they'll start Monday's game against the San Francisco 49ers (10-3). Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin said Tuesday that Roethlisberger will have to practice in "some form or fashion" to see the field against the 49ers.Comment -
top 25 ncaa basketball teams
1) Syracuse -20.3 Syracuse slips into the number one spot with UK and OSU losing Saturday. However, it's not as if the Orange don’t deserve it. This team is rock solid and the real deal.
2) Louisville -19.6 Despite injuries, UL keeps winning. The Cards have a week to get healthy before facing Memphis Saturday. Getting healthy would put this team over the top.
3) Duke -18.9 Poor foul shooting burned Duke bettors against Washington. The Blue Devils must get better on defense. Until that happens, bettors should proceed with caution.
4) Baylor -18.1 Baylor passed their first test of the season against NU. Between Perry Jones, Quincy Acy and some high-flying freshmen, Baylor is arguably the most exciting team in the country. The Bears command attention.
5) Kentucky -18.0 Kentucky's lack of depth was exposed by foul trouble in the upset to IU. Poor foul shooting down the stretch doomed Kentucky and the Wildcats must get more production from their reserves when called upon.
6) Ohio State -17.4 It's tough to knock OSU back a bit for a loss to KU when Ohio State was without their best player on the floor. However, the Buckeyes offense did look lost at times without Sullinger in the middle.
7) Marquette -17.2 Marquette is still undefeated, but that doesn't mean much to bettors who were burned in three of four games. The betting market has caught up to the Golden Eagles…at least for now…eventually that trend will reverse so watch Marquette closely.
8) North Carolina -17.1 North Carolina's defense isn't at a Final 4 level - at least not yet. It is apparent that the Heels have work to do and a soft schedule with which to do it in. For now however, it may be wise to keep your hands in your pockets when it comes to stepping to the window with UNC.
9) Xavier -16.4 Xavier moves up, but suspensions are coming down for Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons after the Crosstown Shootout ended ugly. Oddsmakers can't adjust enough for that duo. That may be a pure "stay away" for now.
10) Missouri -16.2 The Tigers burned me in a play on Villanova this week. Missouri could be the best team in the Big 12 - they're already the conference's best bet.
11) Pittsburgh -16.1 Ashton Gibbs is putting in a quiet bid for player of the year, scoring 18.7 points per game while serving as a leader for a young Pitt team. Consistent play from the defense could key this team's rise.
12) Illinois -15.8 Illinois survived a letdown against the Bonnies after a big win over the Zags. The Illini has a foot race with speedy UNLV on the schedule this weekend. Illinois will need to control the tempo to be successful.
13) Wisconsin -15.7 The Badgers picked up a big win over UNLV in a battle of contrasting styles. The slowed down Wisconsin offense coupled with a solid effort on the other end of the floor helped to hold the Rebels to 20 points below their season average.
14) Connecticut -15.7 Talent trumped smarts with Uconn's victory over Harvard. The Huskies have covered three straight games. Note that those ATS wins have all come since Ryan Boatright joined the team. Uconn is on the rise!
15) Kansas -15.4 Would KU have won if Sullinger was on the floor for OSU? Maybe. Will they continue to win without Tyshawn Taylor for the next three weeks? Maybe not. Proceed with caution here.
16) Michigan -14.6 Michigan had three players score 20 or more in a win over Detroit. Note that the Wolverines have played over the total in five straight games.
17) Mississippi State -14.5 Mississippi State has covered the spread in five of their last six games. The offense is hitting on all cylinders with all five starters scoring in double figures vs Troy.
18) Memphis -14.3 With Louisville this weekend, Memphis is in the ultimate letdown spot against a very good Murray St Racers team this coming Sunday.
19) Michigan State -14 The Spartans came through for me on a late game play vs Gonzaga. The road win could be the turning point for an MSU team that is better than many realize.
20) Florida -13.2 All the points in the world can't help Florida cover as big faves unless the Gators toughen up on defense. That said, they do have a week to prepare for Texas A&M on Saturday.
21) Vanderbilt -12.8 Vandy just covered vs Davidson but the Commordores late game jitters have to worry bettors who have already been burned badly by Vanderbilt even before SEC play has begun.
22) UNLV -11.8 UNLV has only one speed. That was obvious against Wisconsin and that could prove to be their undoing. The Badgers put the breaks on the Runnin Rebels and set the blueprint for Big 10 brothers Illinois, who play UNLV this weekend.
23) Texas A&M -11.1 Yes, A&M is ranked and winners of six in-a-row. But the Aggies haven't beaten anyone of note and have a big challenge vs Florida on Saturday.
24) Creighton -11.1 The Blue jays busted one of my plays when they forgot how to play defense in the second half vs. St Joe's. This is a deserved drop for Creighton this week in the rankings.
25) Indiana -10.9 Indiana gets the final top 25 spot with their upset win over UK. The Hoosiers look like they are in a letdown spot vs Notre Dame but the state rivalry could absolutely keep Tom Crean's kids rolling.Comment -
Making decent coin from fading Butler and Montana State overs?
If you are don’t expect the same to happen in the new year.
The transition in the schedule from non-conference games into conference games is a critical time for handicappers. What was seen as prime value in November and December can hurt the bankroll if not approached with caution during January.
While these trends are obvious to most handicappers, here is a quick look at three common occurrences during this transition period with examples from previous seasons.
Princeton 1997-98
Value Dog to Heavy Favorite
With all respect to this year’s Harvard team, it will difficult for them to surpass what Bill Carmody’s Princeton Tigers did 15 years ago. Leading up to Ivy League play the Tigers went 11-1 and covered the spread 7 out of 8 times.
These weren’t easy wins either, as their victories came against the likes of Texas, NC State, and Wake Forest. And that single defeat was just a 50-42 road loss to a North Carolina team that included Vince Carter and Antawn Jamison. Princeton was a +15.5 dog in that contest.
What happened during conference play was obvious. In their 14 Ivy League games they were double digit favorites in all but one contest. In fact the average spread that the Tigers had to cover was -19.54.
This year’s candidates: Murray State, Harvard, Middle Tennessee State
Centenary 2010-11
Awful Team, Solid value
With a 1-29 record last season, the Gentlemen of Centenary, who now play in Division III, were one of the worst Division I teams in recent memory. In November and December of 2010 they loss all 15 of their games and were doing so by an average of 22.8 points.
That performance played a key role in making them one of the better cover teams in the month of January. The Gentlemen went 6-2 against the spread with the benefit of numbers in the late 20s.
This year’s candidates: Northern Illinois, Towson, Canisius
West Carolina 2003-04
NBA Talent Overvalued
Unless you were a scout, very little was known about Kevin Martin at the start of the 2003-04 season. That all changed with a late December road trip to Arkansas where the future 1st round pick put up 33 points in a 62-59 overtime win.
What that did was overvalue a team whose offense centered upon one individual. Even for a conference as weak as the SOCON this was relatively easily to gameplan around. Their first conference game in January with a posted line put them as just +2 underdogs against a Charleston team that was 9-2 at the time. Martin went 2 for 11 and the Catamounts lost 84-61.
Other than short spreads another key element to look for in mid-major teams with NBA scoring talent is value on the under. The first 7 totals that were released for West Carolina that season all went under.
This year’s candidates: Weber State, IUPUI, Ball State, Detroit
Key Games
Thursday Dec 15 Oral Roberts at Gonzaga
Oral Roberts can’t cover at just 1-5 ATS this season in which they were favorites in all and by no less than 8. Regardless of their small value to handicappers they should be a top contender for the Summit League title and will come in as underdogs in Spokane against Mid-Major powerhouse Gonzaga.
Friday Dec 16 Weber St at California
The 8-2 California Bears will put their undefeated home record on the line against Weber State and the nation’s leading scorer. Damian Lillard is averaging 26.9 points per game and earlier in the month he put up 41 points, 4 assists and 8 rebounds against San Jose State. He could be in for a huge performance as Lillard will look to impress with scouts watching his every game now and also with this being a homecoming for the Oakland native.
Saturday Dec 17 Mississippi St at Detroit
An awful start to the season for the Titans who were perhaps of bit overvalued in November because of former McDonalds All-American Ray McCallum Jr. However they provided value in their last going 2-1 overall and a perfect 3-0 ATS. They were particularly impressive in their 62-54 road loss to Alabama where they were +14.5 dogs. With Mississippi State they have another tough test from the SEC, but this time have the benefit of home court. Expect decent value here.Comment -
Each week throughout the college basketball season, Scott will dissect the new top-25 rankings on Monday evenings and post what he feels is the week's most overrated top-25 team, along with the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he feels should be in the AP top-25.
MOST OVERRATED: Louisville Cardinals
The Cardinals have built a 9-0 SU record, a #4 ranking, and even a couple of first place votes in the AP Top-25 without playing an overly difficult schedule. Rick Pitino's squad is solid, has deep tourney potential, and is a top-12 team. But I don't believe they should be ranked in the top-5...at least not yet. Beating Butler in Indianapolis this season is no great accomplishment. And let's not forget that Butler, (4-6 SU), led the Cardinals midway through the second half. Louisville's toughest contest came at home against Vanderbilt on December 2. Vandy is certainly a top-20 team. But the point is, the 4th ranked Cards were taken to OT before winning by a basket on a late Peyton Silva layup. Louisville's weakness is that they're basically a 7-man team. Eventually, the lack of depth will catch up to this squad. Louisville had their problems last season on the glass. They have hit the boards well so far this season, but again, the compeition has not been what they'll face in Big East play. Pitino has serious talent in the top-7 players and a deep tourney run in March is possible. But for now, they still have to prove themselves against top compeition. The Cardinals do host a decent but not great Memphis team this Saturday. We will find out a lot about this team when they face Georgetown and Kentucky on December 28 and 31, respectively. The contest at UK with be just their second true road game of the season. Louisville is this week's Most Overrated ranked team.
MOST UNDERRATED RANKED TEAM: Marquette Golden Eagles
We'll stay in the Big East for our underrated squad. Marquette is extremely athletic and love to force a fast-paced tempo. Having said that, their most impressive performance of the season came in Madison, when Wisconsin forced their typical halfcourt affair. The rigors of Big East play has served Marquette well. They were not intimidated by the physical Badgers and were never truly threatened down the stretch. It should be noted that the Eagles played the game without point-guard Junior Cadougan, who is the true on-court leader of this team, averaging over 6 assists per game. Yet, even shorthanded, Marquette had no trouble with the deliberate pace, out-rebounding Wiscy by a 44-32 margin, and holding the Badgers to 32% shooting. The mark of a quality team is how they perform against solid opposition without their leader. Just see Ohio State's performance at Kansas without Jared Sullinger if you need proof. Marquette came alive this past March. But they must remain consistent from one game to the next which was a problem last season. Buzz Williams' troops passed a huge test in Madison and 5 of their 9 wins have come away from home. The schedule lends itself to a 12-0 record when the Eagles host Vanderbilt on December 29. Marquette is this week's Most Underrated ranked team.
UNRANKED TEAM THAT SHOULD BE RANKED: Harvard Crimson
Tommy Amaker has done a tremendous job with Harvard. Last week, they landed their first AP top-25 ranking. I don't believe the Crimson should have dropped from the rankings based on a loss at Storrs, their only loss of the season. Harvard went through a couple of rough shooting droughts in the loss at UConn, but it should be noted that they were within 7 points with 4:30 to go in the contest. Everyone is back from last year's 23-7 squad. No less than 10 players have seen a decent amount of action in all 10 games this season. Eight of those 10 average between 14 and 29 minutes played per game. Harvard slammed the door on the glass and defensive end when they held then 22nd-ranked Florida State to 41 points in a 5-point Crimson win. That's the same FSU team who's only other two losses came against UConn and Michigan State. Harvard owns athleticism and power with forwards Kyle Casey and Keith Wright, respectively. Harvard's next "real" test will be on New Year's eve against a tough defensive St. Joe's team that just handed Creighton their first loss of the season. Harvard is mentally tough, they're deep and well coached - and I believe they're more qualified to be ranked in this week's top-25 than 3 teams who are. Harvard is this week's Unranked team that should be in the AP top-25.Comment -
GL today fam.Comment -
YTD: Through 12/14 (NCAA BB Only)
*Top line = Overall
*Bottom line = Current week
Sonny:
77-80-5 = +10.2x
1-2-0 = -6.0x
Buck:
*71-52-0 = +36.45x
1-2-0 = -3.8x
Ayo:
73-63-1 = +2.555x
4-3-0 = +1.4x
Bean:
58-48-3 = +6.65x
2-2-0 = -0.3x
-Any discrepancies report to your local authoritiesComment -
no plays today dont like the cardLETS GET ITComment -
Buck, Ayo any plays tonight?Comment -
Public%
Jags @ Falcons
12/15/11 04:58:08pm Falcons 70%Comment -
sorry for the late post, was really pressed for time today
wisconsin game under 111 1x
add:
lsu game under 135.5 .5xLast edited by CantTouchAyo; 12-15-11, 07:02 PM.Comment -
over140 zags /oral roberts 1x
uc irvine +15 1x
george washington / bradley over 130 1x
wiskey /savanna st under 111 1x
Last edited by WIZARDOFBEANTOWN; 12-15-11, 07:04 PM.Comment -
NO THAT WAS A ARTICLE I THREW UP THERE NOT MY PICK FROM COVERS
I THINK IT WILL BE CLOSE THAT'S WHY I WENT OVER INSTEAD.
ADDING adding NFL
JACKSONVILLE +14.5 1X BOUGHT HOOKComment -
I'm just curious. Are any of you african american?Comment -
my connex in Vegas says there is a lotta $$$ goin in on jags +14 by some big bettors try to buy .5 or 1 pt if you canComment -
thanks for the excellent writing, bean.
good luck to the concrete jungle family tonight.
I'm rolling w the jaguars +19/under 49.5 7pt tease.
peep my play on the gonzaga team -9 for 1u.
bought it down 3pts @ -170. right now, I'm chasing
the savannah state 1h +15 4x. good luck, bros.Comment -
if you like Jags gettin 15 points you gotta like the correlation of that parlayed with U41 for the game total since that is more than a third of the total in your favor. Thinking about going in on a 6 point parlay with +21 and U47.Last edited by thebigd1; 12-15-11, 08:16 PM.Comment -
bigd whats your playComment -
12/15/11 4:54pm $150.00 $322.50 Pending 6 Team Teaser (ties push) Teaser tp 11fb & 8bk
Pending 12/15/11 8:00pm College Basketball 544 LSU -6 * vs Cal Irvine
Pending 12/15/11 8:00pm College Basketball 543 Cal Irvine/LSU Under 144½ *
Pending 12/15/11 9:00pm College Basketball 552 Gonzaga -3½ * vs Oral Roberts
Pending 12/15/11 8:00pm College Basketball 553 Savannah State/Wisconsin Under 120½ *
Pending 12/15/11 8:25pm NFL Football 301 Jacksonville Jaguars +26½ * vs Atlanta Falcons
Pending 12/15/11 8:25pm NFL Football 301 Jacksonville Jaguars/Atlanta Falcons Under 52½ *
Put the above parlay in several hours ago but I'm putting in 6 point teaser of Jags and Under again.
UPDATE:
So I just went in to enter a second parlay with Jags +21 and Under 47 and this message popped up:
"Jacksonville Jaguars* and Jacksonville Jaguars/Atlanta Falcons* Under are invalid within the same Teaser. Please make a different selection."
Guess big money was coming in towards the final seconds on the two. Hope everyone got something in lets get it.Last edited by thebigd1; 12-15-11, 08:33 PM.Comment -
BOL bigd w the parlay. I got the same message when I tried to tease the jax and under.Comment -
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Canisius +7.5 1x
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WE ARE YOUR SLIMES - Make it happen
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