Sonny,Bean,Buck and Ayo's Hoops thread

**RoadDog** · 12-05-11, 04:50 PM

Originally posted by riffraff24

Sorry i'm fresh at this and trying to understand what line movements mean what. If everyone is betting on Elon, why is the line moving in their favor? Didn't it open at Elon -3 and is now -1? Thx and excuse my ignorance

Sorry, I was in a rush earlier and couldnt be more thorough.

Elon opened at -3. Since then, 88% of the bets have come in on them. With so much money on Elon, logically the line should move up to Elon -3.5 or -4. Instead, this line has moved from -3 to -1. This is reverse line movement. In these instances, if your initial thought is to bet Elon, it's probably smart to hold off now. The line movement makes this a no play for me. Again, this isnt always the case, but just watch out when this occurs.

If you want another example of RLM look at the St. John's Detroit game. St Johns opened at -1.5 and is receiving 85% of the bets, yet they are a pick at some books now. When i capped the games last night I leaned Detroit and Elon. The RLM moved in my favor for Detroit so I will play them. The RLM moved against me for Elon so that is a no play for me. Hope this helps.

**RoadDog** · 12-05-11, 04:52 PM

And just to add. Line movement is just one of MANY factors u need to key on when handicapping games. This isnt the only thing to look for.

**dugdogg** · 12-05-11, 04:55 PM

Originally posted by Filmoz

88% of bets, not 88% of the money.

BINGO!...none of us know what percentage of money is on what side and at what line. the percentage number is some kind of average. we have no way of knowing what percentage was at -3 or -2.5 or -2 etc...

everyone here is just guessing. maybe only 10% was on elon at -3 but now it's down to -1 it could be almost all of it...who knows

what we do know is that a line moving down on a favorite when the huge majority of betting is on that side smells like a trap.

my guess is vegas wants everyone to bet on elon thinking they are a far superior team just by looking at the records...they are hoping greensboro wins and they just made a killing by "trapping" the public bettors

**riffraff24** · 12-05-11, 04:57 PM

Originally posted by RoadDog

And just to add. Line movement is just one of MANY factors u need to key on when handicapping games. This isnt the only thing to look for.

Thanks. Understanding line movement is new to me but I do look at other aspects as well. Appreciate everyone on this forum for schoolin me. Good luck everyone!

**RoadDog** · 12-05-11, 04:59 PM

Originally posted by dugdogg

BINGO!...none of us know what percentage of money is on what side and at what line. the percentage number is some kind of average. we have no way of knowing what percentage was at -3 or -2.5 or -2 etc...

everyone here is just guessing. maybe only 10% was on elon at -3 but now it's down to -1 it could be almost all of it...who knows

what we do know is that a line moving down on a favorite when the huge majority of betting is on that side smells like a trap.

my guess is vegas wants everyone to bet on elon thinking they are a far superior team just by looking at the records...they are hoping greensboro wins and they just made a killing by "trapping" the public bettors

"what we do know is that a line moving down on a favorite when the huge majority of betting is on that side smells like a trap.

my guess is vegas wants everyone to bet on elon thinking they are a far superior team just by looking at the records...they are hoping greensboro wins and they just made a killing by "trapping" the public bettors"

That's exactly what I'm saying dug

**thebigd1** · 12-05-11, 05:05 PM

Originally posted by RoadDog

No, it means everyone in the world is betting Elon, yet the line is moving in their favor.

If everyone is betting Elon and it went from -3 to -1 isn't that moving against their favor?

**RoadDog** · 12-05-11, 05:06 PM

It's moving in their favor because it's easier to cover 1 than it is to cover 3...

**tokio** · 12-05-11, 05:08 PM

^ sometimes Vegas gets rocked also by the reverse line movement meaning nothing. Too much bets on Elon will have the books adjusting numbers to even out the bets on both sides.

**riffraff24** · 12-05-11, 05:09 PM

Waiting to hear Buck's opinion on this.

**RoadDog** · 12-05-11, 05:11 PM

Stay away from Elon, IMO. If they cover theyre gonna make you sweat your ass off haha.

**Phil the Folder** · 12-05-11, 05:15 PM

Hello all. New to the thread and a big fan of you guys!

I'm looking at the Charleston Southern/FSU game tonight. The line is 17. Anyone have a play for that game? Thanks

**dugdogg** · 12-05-11, 05:25 PM

Originally posted by tokio

^ sometimes Vegas gets rocked also by the reverse line movement meaning nothing. Too much bets on Elon will have the books adjusting numbers to even out the bets on both sides.

not true...vegas is trying to trap the public in my opinion on this game...they want the majority of the bets on one side because they have a good hunch who will win.

a game like the BCS championship LSU vs ALABAMA, then yes they will adjust the line to keep bets split evenly...but new towers get built in vegas because they trap the public at the sportsbook. this is one of those games. it's not a mega loss if elon does actually cover. but i would choose the side of vegas on this one. a trap is not a guarantee win for the books obviously. but like i said new towers get built on the majority of these traps favoring the vegas side

if a line seems to good to be true it likely is. sure elon could cover...then all the public yahoos will say TOLD YOU so..but they dont realize the percentages of times they will be wrong on these in the long run...lets see if the funding for a new tower gets added to from this game!

**riffraff24** · 12-05-11, 05:27 PM

-1.5 now on 5D

Vegas tryin to make us 2nd guess Greensboro? haha

**upscope** · 12-05-11, 05:34 PM

Originally posted by dugdogg

not true...vegas is trying to trap the public in my opinion on this game...they want the majority of the bets on one side because they have a good hunch who will win.

a game like the BCS championship LSU vs ALABAMA, then yes they will adjust the line to keep bets split evenly...but new towers get built in vegas because they trap the public at the sportsbook. this is one of those games. it's not a mega loss if elon does actually cover. but i would choose the side of vegas on this one. a trap is not a guarantee win for the books obviously. but like i said new towers get built on the majority of these traps favoring the vegas side

if a line seems to good to be true it likely is. sure elon could cover...then all the public yahoos will say TOLD YOU so..but they dont realize the percentages of times they will be wrong on these in the long run...lets see if the funding for a new tower gets added to from this game!

They're not building towers in Vegas off of sportbook winnings. Sportbook winnings make UP a VERY small % of the casinos take. They're building new towers off of pit games & slot machines.

**southpaw74** · 12-05-11, 05:36 PM

Well this thread is on the opposite side as most of the board. I guess that's usually a good sign. I might just wait to make some 2H plays.

**Filmoz** · 12-05-11, 05:38 PM

Originally posted by dugdogg

not true...vegas is trying to trap the public in my opinion on this game...they want the majority of the bets on one side because they have a good hunch who will win.

a game like the BCS championship LSU vs ALABAMA, then yes they will adjust the line to keep bets split evenly...but new towers get built in vegas because they trap the public at the sportsbook. this is one of those games. it's not a mega loss if elon does actually cover. but i would choose the side of vegas on this one. a trap is not a guarantee win for the books obviously. but like i said new towers get built on the majority of these traps favoring the vegas side

if a line seems to good to be true it likely is. sure elon could cover...then all the public yahoos will say TOLD YOU so..but they dont realize the percentages of times they will be wrong on these in the long run...lets see if the funding for a new tower gets added to from this game!

This brings up a good point. It's important to be able to differentiate between lines that are off because the book is trying to trap, and lines that are off because RLM pushed them that way. If sharp money is coming in and causing RLM and you can spot it, then you can do pretty well piggybacking on the sharp money, as you are basically substituting the better judgment of sharp bettors for yours.

However, if a line seems off but it is only because the book is picking a possible trap spot, then it is pretty volatile to pick the non-public side. This is because the book is just basically making a smart bet in that spot, but the result is far from certain. So, for example, if Elon -1 should cover a majority of the time, but the books have enough information that they think UNCG covers that number even 30-40% of the time, then the books clean up if they get 90% of action on Elon. If Elon covers, the books can handle it.

**Filmoz** · 12-05-11, 05:39 PM

Originally posted by upscope

They're not building towers in Vegas off of sportbook winnings. Sportbook winnings make UP a VERY small % of the casinos take. They're building new towers off of pit games & slot machines.

This. Blackjack is an evil, evil game.

**dugdogg** · 12-05-11, 05:50 PM

Originally posted by Filmoz

This. Blackjack is an evil, evil game.

blackjack and craps have the lowest house advantages of all the games...roulette is something like 17% house advantage, whereas BJ and craps can be less than 1% if played correctly, as most big time gamblers do i'm sure

as for sportsbook winnings, well they may be a smaller percentage than table games but they still make hundreds of millions ever year on the sportsbook...so new towers do get funded from those winnings if you want to be technical.

none of us will never know what is RLM or what is sharp money moving the line. none of us. only the operators of the books who move the lines know how much exact money is coming in on every bet

**iceman8847** · 12-05-11, 05:57 PM

Nc greensboro

Originally posted by sonnybaby

detroit +1 5x

nc greensboro +1 5x

brown +12.5 5x

sonny are you taking nc greenboro because of the rlm and that the public is on elon or do you really think nc greensboro is a better team?

**Filmoz** · 12-05-11, 06:09 PM

Originally posted by dugdogg

none of us will never know what is RLM or what is sharp money moving the line. none of us. only the operators of the books who move the lines know how much exact money is coming in on every bet

Obviously, but we try our best.

**CAS2550** · 12-05-11, 06:36 PM

Sonny the only guy with plays so far?

**rb3b3** · 12-05-11, 06:37 PM

Originally posted by CAS2550

Sonny the only guy with plays so far?

lol i think we all waiting on buck to chime in

**riffraff24** · 12-05-11, 06:39 PM

Elon now +1 lol...what the hellis up with this game

**CAS2550** · 12-05-11, 06:42 PM

Originally posted by riffraff24

Elon now +1 lol...what the hellis up with this game

wow your right. shoulda grabbed that shit earlier.

looks like that was the play..

im gonna grab it now

**dugdogg** · 12-05-11, 06:43 PM

Originally posted by riffraff24

elon now +1 lol...what the hellis up with this game

elon = trap

**CAS2550** · 12-05-11, 06:57 PM

so you guys take any of the 6 o clock games?

**riffraff24** · 12-05-11, 07:01 PM

No early game plays for you Buck?

**PassUrChipZ** · 12-05-11, 07:02 PM

taking depaul. Milwaukee hasn't played anyone. blow out city here. probably the best line of the night.

**BubbleTeaJelly** · 12-05-11, 07:04 PM

Even at -4?

**Checkerboard** · 12-05-11, 07:06 PM

Go Titans!!

**dugdogg** · 12-05-11, 07:42 PM

depaul should crush!

**WIZARDOFBEANTOWN** · 12-05-11, 07:44 PM

NCAA HOOPS
DEPAUL -3 2X

NFL
SD -2.5 -150 2X

nhl
blackhawks ml -145 1x
tampa ml -110 1x

**CAS2550** · 12-05-11, 07:54 PM

Need Detroit U to hang in there.

UNC Greensboro needs to step it up. Same with Brown.

Best of luck tonight boys

**CAS2550** · 12-05-11, 07:55 PM

Liking the Blackhawks and Chargers as well Bean.

Just dont like the juice with Chicago

**YOUNGBUCK** · 12-05-11, 08:45 PM

Depaul -4 3x
Under 139.5 3x