Free Money Plays, Sat Jan 26

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  • curious
    Restricted User
    • 07-20-07
    • 9093

    #1
    Free Money Plays, Sat Jan 26
    There were a lot of games that qualified today. Trying to decide if I should post them all or filter them somehow.

    South Carolina St @ Kentucky Kentucky -7 1/2 Win
    Gonzaga @ Memphis Gonzaga +13 (buy the 1/2 point) Win
    Nebraska @ Kansas Nebraska +23 Loss
    Ball St @ Ohio Ohio -14 1/2 Loss
    Notre Dame @ Villanova Notre Dame +3 (buy the 1/2) Win
    Wight St @ Detroit Wright St -3 Win
  • curious
    Restricted User
    • 07-20-07
    • 9093

    #2
    Gonzaga comes in!!!

    nice start to the day
    Comment
    • freeVICK
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 01-21-08
      • 7114

      #3
      nice win. which one of those should i ride?
      Comment
      • curious
        Restricted User
        • 07-20-07
        • 9093

        #4
        Originally posted by hawaii04
        nice win. which one of those should i ride?
        My absolute best play is Central Florida, but of the ones I posted that have not started I would say Ohio.
        Comment
        • freeVICK
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 01-21-08
          • 7114

          #5
          awesome. thanks for that chart too, im looking at it now.

          i wanna ride central florida, but i just saw that billings the center is listed at questionable. know anything about it?
          Comment
          • curious
            Restricted User
            • 07-20-07
            • 9093

            #6
            Originally posted by hawaii04
            awesome. thanks for that chart too, im looking at it now.

            i wanna ride central florida, but i just saw that billings the center is listed at questionable. know anything about it?
            Nope. I only look at the pythagorean factor.

            Look for the teams that have the highest number in the edge column, those are the highest probability wins.
            Comment
            • curious
              Restricted User
              • 07-20-07
              • 9093

              #7
              Great day 4-2

              The free money plays keep on trucking.
              Comment
              • Tigers1230
                SBR MVP
                • 12-04-07
                • 1568

                #8
                So curious, you saying your on Central Florida tonight?? Because I was checking this game out and want to lay some major dough on it.
                Comment
                • curious
                  Restricted User
                  • 07-20-07
                  • 9093

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Tigers1230
                  So curious, you saying your on Central Florida tonight?? Because I was checking this game out and want to lay some major dough on it.
                  I can only tell you what the math says:


                  Line P% Pr Line Edge
                  -7 1/2 0.82 -32.4 24.9 Central Florida
                  7 1/2 0.18 32.4 Southern Methodist


                  Line = best line available at SBR Odds
                  P% = pythagorean win %
                  Pr Line = predicted line using a formula which includes P% (what the line should be)
                  Edge = estimated edge, higher number is better.
                  Comment
                  • Tigers1230
                    SBR MVP
                    • 12-04-07
                    • 1568

                    #10
                    so... the 24.9 is a 7.5 difference. So your saying through your system its a good bet?
                    Comment
                    • curious
                      Restricted User
                      • 07-20-07
                      • 9093

                      #11
                      Originally posted by Tigers1230
                      so... the 24.9 is a 7.5 difference. So your saying through your system its a good bet?
                      The line is -7 1/2, the pythagorean formula says the line should be -32 1/2, a 25 point difference. I'm rounding off here to make the math easier. So, the edge is 25. This is very high. So, yes, the formula says this is a good bet.
                      Comment
                      • Ganchrow
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 08-28-05
                        • 5011

                        #12
                        Originally posted by curious
                        I can only tell you what the math says:


                        Line P% Pr Line Edge
                        -7 1/2 0.82 -32.4 24.9 Central Florida
                        7 1/2 0.18 32.4 Southern Methodist


                        Line = best line available at SBR Odds
                        P% = pythagorean win %
                        Pr Line = predicted line using a formula which includes P% (what the line should be)
                        Edge = estimated edge, higher number is better.
                        Personally I'm skeptical, but if you honestly believe in that 82% win probability for UCF you might want to consider the ML.

                        You can pick it up at Bookmaker at -300, implying an expectation of 91/3% and expected full Kelly bankroll growth of 1.4138% (both based on you stated expected win probability of 82%).

                        To achieve the same expected full Kelly growth on the spread it'd need to win at about a 60.71% clip.
                        Comment
                        • babaoriley
                          SBR MVP
                          • 12-11-06
                          • 2316

                          #13
                          This UCF/SMU game is basically a Jermaine Taylor-Jon Killen 1-on-1 game (or so it has seemed). They're a combined 12-24 from downtown.
                          Comment
                          • freeVICK
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 01-21-08
                            • 7114

                            #14
                            that sucked
                            Comment
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