PittVipers - 50 days - 100 plays - 60% Winners?

[southpaw74]

tech is already down to +2.5 and dallas down to -2 Still rolling with them though. GL pitt

[pittviper]

GL bro .. and thanks.

[Busterflywheel]

Love the wake call.. BOL today Pit

[pittviper]

Thanks buster GL.

[rochestertitans]

gl bro like ure style

[pittviper]

Thanks.

2-1 on the night with Dallas pending.

[ol'Tex]

Dallas is on it tonight no doubt

[pittviper]

2-2 yesterday. Thought we had that Dallas game but 2-2 isn't awful. I have two for Friday, will have two for Saturday .. and Sunday is a day off.

Day 18:
NBA: Chicago Bulls (+4.5)
CBK: Canisius (ML)

After day 17:
NBA Record: 13-4 (77%)
CBK Record: 14-3 (82%)
Overall Record: 27-7 (80%)

Days [1-5]: 9-1 (90%)
Days [6-10]: 7-3 (70%)
Days [11-15]: 9-1 (90%)
Days [16-20]: 2-2 (50%)

BOL
PV

[TNT17]

I gave you points in the NBA thread..whoops. Here take some here a well lol. Good job, bol tonight.

[bigboyfosho]

good luck tonight man, nice job and thanks

[pittviper]

I gave you points in the NBA thread..whoops. Here take some here a well lol. Good job, bol tonight.

Haha. Thanks for the points bud.

Thanks and GL everyone.

BOL
PV

[pittviper]

Thank you everybody. PS. I just posted my largest NHL selection of the year in the hockey forum.

BOL
PV

[pittviper]

2-0 night. Canisius dominated the 2nd half, but because of dumb fouls let Niagara back into the game and needed some luck to get to overtime. Once in overtime they took control again. Chicago dominated most of the game being up 12 at the end of the 3rd Q. They let New Orleans back into it .. it was tied at the halfway mark of the 4th and then a tight game until the end .. where Chicago tied the game up on a mis-play by New Orleans forcing overtime. Would have been happy if that had not happened as the bet still would have covered by 2.5 points. Chicago dominated overtime.

After day 18:
NBA Record: 14-4 (78%)
CBK Record: 15-3 (83%)
Overall Record: 29-7 (81%)

Days [1-5]: 9-1 (90%)
Days [6-10]: 7-3 (70%)
Days [11-15]: 9-1 (90%)
Days [16-20]: 4-2 (67%)

BOL
PV

[Ralphie1412]

edit: nevermind i looked it up....u got screwed in the first period. STill a nice night.

[TJHotpicks]

Great job again Pit!!!

[AKATDOG]

[CrimsonQueen]

[pittviper]

2-0 last night. Remember that I will not be having any plays for Sunday. Been up all night handicapping and watching tennis. Finally able to break it down to two games. I'm off to bed. haha.

Day 19:
NBA: Sacramento Kings +1
CBK: Arkansas State -2

After day 18:
NBA Record: 14-4 (78%)
CBK Record: 15-3 (83%)
Overall Record: 29-7 (81%)

Days [1-5]: 9-1 (90%)
Days [6-10]: 7-3 (70%)
Days [11-15]: 9-1 (90%)
Days [16-20]: 4-2 (67%)

BOL
PV

[Maddhatter]

Love the Ark St pick. Glad I'm on the same side as you are. Tailing you on the Kings! GL today Viper!!!

[pittviper]

I wen't against my gut on Portland and it cost us. Sorry guys. 1-1 night, but every period of 5 days the goal is to win 6 bets to 4. Nothing for tomorrow i'll see you Monday. There is some betting advice at the bottom if you are tailing.

After day 19:
NBA Record: 14-5 (74%)
CBK Record: 16-3 (84%)
Overall Record: 30-8 (79%)

Days [1-5]: 9-1 (90%)
Days [6-10]: 7-3 (70%)
Days [11-15]: 9-1 (90%)
Days [16-20]: 5-3 (63%)
---------------------------------------------
What I have been doing and is paying off is betting both games and parlaying the 3rd for half. I have been betting 150 or 200 on each bet and playing a 50$ parlay of the two bets as well. Tthe past 19 days i've been 2-0 twelve times, 1-1 six times, and 0-2 once. Let's just say you are betting 55$ to win 50$ on every bet and are betting 25$ to win 75$ on every parlay. You would be +1,675$ the past 19 days, risking only 75$ per day for a, get this, return on investment of +117.5%.

R.O.I = total profit (1675$) divided by total investment (75$ x 19 days = 1425$) = 1675/1425 = 1.175 *100 for a ROI (return on investment) of 117.5%.

Just food for thought.

BOL
PV

[pittviper]

The idea behind this is that the goal is to win 6 games out of every 10 plays selected. So, for every five day period, to win 6 games I would need to go 2-0 once, with the other four days going 1-1 .. or 2-0 twice, going 0-2 one day and 1-1 the other two days .. or going 2-0 three times, and going 0-2 the other two days. That is if I only hit 6 games out of 10 (60%).

With those three possibilities and assuming each week I go 6-4, , which is lower then I've yet to be, and risking 55$ on each bet and 25$ on each parlay the three possible +/- after the five days would be: +45$ .. OR .. +135$ .. OR .. +225$ (the average of that is +135$).

The proper way to get the average of this situation is looking longterm. Since I am assuming my winning rate over the long term is 60%, this is the hypothetical situation over a 50 day, 100 play period, with me going 6-4 every five day period, for all ten periods.

Since I would be 60%, this meas that I have a 10% edge over the line. Meaning there is a 60% chance that I win any single game. So over a 100 day period we assume I would win 60 games and lose 40 games. This means that I win 50$ on 60 of the games and lose 55$ on 40 of the games (3000$ - 2200$ = +800$).

As for the parlays, we are assuming that I have a 60% chance of winning any given game so I would have a 36% chance of winning a parlay (0.60 * 0.60 = 0.36 * 100 = 36%). This means for every 50 days of plays that I bet, I have a 36% chance of winning a parlay each night, meaning I would win 18 parlays on average, and lose 32 parlays. The odds are 2.6 to win a parlay; we are betting 25$ per parlay so 2.6 *25 = 65$ .. so 65$ * 18 parlays = 1,170$. Minus the 25$ you lose on the 32 parlays (25$ * 32 parlays = 800$) .. leaves you at (1,170$-800$= 370$) on the parlays over every 50 day period.

This means on average over a 50 day, 100 play period following the picks you would be +1,170$. Now if I hit 70%, you would assume I would be +2805 after 50 days. If I were to continue at the rate I am at now (79%) , you would be +3,789$.

Now, let's say I only did mediocre over the 50 days and hit 55%, you would be +491$ on average.

Once again .. just food for thought.

[Kingsbury78]

nice stuff man. i like it

[whatsgood5]

Very impressive record and nice picks. GL today!

[jlippens]

PV: The picks have been red hot, but the problem with your reasoning on parlays is that, well, of course you are going to make a ton of money on parlays on the assumption you are hitting 60%. Then again, on that assumption, you could completely jack your unit size as well. At 60%, resizing units, you could turn 1000 into 1 million blazingly fast.

This isnt to take anyting away from how well you've done to date, just to temper your expectations before you either flip out on parlays or go tout (you're advertising your picks on every board in existence! LOL). The number of one season flash in the pan hot shots who go tout and promptly try to unsuccessfully scam people into their 48% ATS service are uncountable, even in just the two full years that I've been on boards. Don't be that dude.

BOL as always.

[djzmoney]

pittviper, you are the man dude!! much respect and thank you for the insightful wisdom

[ol'Tex]

pitt has been on here posting every day to try and help people. dont go making accusations about what he is or isnt going to do.. let him do his thing and if you dont like it, the back button is to your top left

[Busterflywheel]

Pitt...Keep banging..BOL

[pittviper]

Jilipen. I've been posting on forums since 2005 .. I am not new to betting, or posting on forums. Maybe new to this forum .. though I did join years ago, just didn't post. Mostly only at cappersmall.

I understand your point about parlays, though. I am not one who likes parlays either, but that is how I learned to bet thus I kind of feel that I need to incorporate parlays into my gambling some way another .. as long as it shows profit. As you said that is assuming I hit 60%, but if I were to only hit say 55%, then I would still profit. I really see no reason I would stoop below 60% if I continue to put as much time as I have been the past couple years into handicapping.

Thanks guys, I appreciate it. Hope you all won some money today, i'll post tommorows plays later.

Thanks to those who sent me points too.

BOL
PV




Hope people have made money

[southpaw74]

Thanks for the info pitt! It helps and makes sense. We all go cold from time to time but if we manage money properly then we will make money in the end. Appreciate the help and good picks!

[Lnn7]

Pitt is absolutely correct. In fact, when you compare 2 team parlay and single bet play, the odd of you winning or losing is very similar. For example, in a typical 10% juice, to break even in single bet you have to pick the winners correctly on 52.38% of your bets. On 2 team parlays u have to pick the winner 52.70% of the time correctly. So mathematically, your odds of winning when making single bet compare to 2 team parlays is only 0.32%, or 1/3 of a percent.

The formula for how much you're expected to win base on the percentage of your correct picks on 2 team parlay is this.

(X^2)(260) - (1-X^2)(100) = Average % of profit per bet

X= %of picks u got right
This formula assume it's a 10% juice bookie.

Now let's say you pick 100 games, and u get 60% of those picks right. That means you plug .60 in for X into the formula and it should give you 29.6%. So then, if u pick 100 games and you pair those into 50 parlays, and say each parlay you bet $100, that's then 100x50 = $5000 you risked and 29.6% win = $1480. So basically, you just risked $5000 and won $1480, a 29.6% profit from your risk.
Let's compare that to what if you just play your 100 bets on single play. Since you win 60 for $100 each bet, your plus side is $6000. You lost 40 games at $110 risked each, so that's 4400. 6000 - 4400 = $1600. You actually win $1600 on single bet which is more than the $1480 on parlay. So you would ask why would you want to do parlay when u win more from single bet? Well the answer is how much money you're risking on those 2 bets. On parlay you only risk $5000 to win 1480, a 29.6% profit.

On single bet, for 100 bet at $100 each and 10% juice, you're risking $11000 to win $1600, a 14.54% profit. You gain a bit more money overall on single bet, but you have to risk twice as much money, another word, your profit % is only half as much. In fact, if u were to risk 11,000 on the parlays, you'd win more than double the $1480. There's also a down side to the parlay though. Even if you pick 60% of the games right, you're more susceptible to luck. At the worst case scenario, the 40 games u got wrong were all paired with one of the 60 games you got correct. that means you would have lost 40 out of the 50 parlays and you would have lost $1400 instead of winning $1480. But then if your luck is that bad, you would have probably been born with more stds and brain tumor then i would want to count. On the other hand, if you get extremely lucky and the picks all paired in your favor, you would win 30 out of the 50 parlays and your winning comes out to 5800. More than double your amount risked.

[bodio]

good stuff Lnn

[pittviper]

Thanks guys. Monday is here. In the NBA I think Boston -5, Boston/Washington under 191 and Memphis +2.5 are all good bets but I am going with the freshest team, in Memphis. Boston should cover the -5 without motive, but they have motive now with three straight losses (to the leagues three best teams) with two of those games being decided by 2 points or less (2 and 1). They lost last night coming back by a double digit deficit to keep it close with the Lakers but they couldn't win, falling up short by 1 point. They should be hungry for a win, and have a chance right away to pound on a bad Washington team who really hasn't been the same since Arenas was suspended (though they have won their past two games, all be it vs. New York and New Jersey). The ONLY reason why Boston is not my play for today .. this is their fourth game in five days, and I refuse to bet on Washington games for the remainder of the season as they can be a tricky team to read with all the problems inside of that organization.

With four games in five days, with two of them being on the road and this being the 3rd road game in that period, the under looks like a strong bet. Add this to the fact that neither team has been scoring lately .. Washington with 7 unders in their last 10 games, as well as 6 unders in their last 8 home games .. as well as Boston with 5 unders in their last 8 games .. the bet in this game is definitely BOSTON, UNDER or nothing. I'm going to go with nothing, because Washington's playing and I don't know how tired Boston will be . That information is just for anyone betting that game.

Day 20:
CBK: Iona Gaels -9.5
NBA: Memphis Grizzlies +2.5 (bought half point)

I suggest if you have +1.5 to buy to 2, and if you have +2 to buy to +2.5 on the Memphis game .. it could be a nail biting finish. It is the Lakers though, and the line may rise on its own but I don't wan't to take the chance with the amount sharp money coming in on Memphis.

After day 19:
NBA Record: 14-5 (74%)
CBK Record: 16-3 (84%)
Overall Record: 30-8 (79%)

Days [1-5]: 9-1 (90%)
Days [6-10]: 7-3 (70%)
Days [11-15]: 9-1 (90%)
Days [16-20]: 5-3 (63%)

* I'll be adding write-ups soon *

BOL
PV

[Lnn7]

good stuff Lnn

thanks man, im new to this forum and basically pretty new to sports picking. I just started looking into it the last 3 weeks, been doing a lot of research calculations. Even started my own system to track the past 3 weeks and i think i might come close to finding something good. But i see a lot of guys on this forum are really good. My goal was to find something to get 60% but I see quite a few ppl on this forum are already doing that well or even better.

[bodio]

Looks good viper...I like Grizzlies tonight as well..

[JRLM8]

Thanks for the picks. Looking forward to the write up on Iona.