Regul8er's '14 NCAAB Conference Tourny Thread

**inZane** · 03-04-14, 05:33 PM

Hey Regul8er, just curious, why do you like Jax with their horrible SU record on the road coupled with Mercer's 15-1 SU at home? Also, what do you think about the overs in Jax. and Oakland? Thanks

**bababooey13** · 03-04-14, 05:49 PM

gl buddy

**Regul8er** · 03-04-14, 06:44 PM

Originally posted by inZane

Hey Regul8er, just curious, why do you like Jax with their horrible SU record on the road coupled with Mercer's 15-1 SU at home? Also, what do you think about the overs in Jax. and Oakland? Thanks

Your right inZane....Jacksonville horrible SU on the road, and Mercer is fantastic SU at home. Jacksonville had a disappointing season, after they predicted to finish top 4 in the conference, with 4 seniors in the starting lineup. I think we caught a glimpse of it in the last games as they beat Upstate, ETSU and even there last defeat at Mercer. Yes, they lost the game by 14, but trailed by 2 with about 8 minutes left, and just couldn't score down the stretch. When looking strictly at Conference games, offensively these teams are very similar in most categories. Defensively Mercer has a huge advantage, as teams shoot under 40% from the field, while opponents shoot about 49% against Jacksonville....yes, big difference! In 18 A-Sun games, Jacksonville who is a good offensive team, had their 2 worst shooting performances against Mercer. I don't think it's by accident based on Mercer's season long defensive success......but I'm relying on the fact that Jacksonville will study the tapes, and find ways to get better percentage looks. They are a veteran led squad, and hanging with mercer over the weekend should give them confidence coming in tonight.

No opinion on the totals.....sorry!

**TwoWays** · 03-04-14, 06:54 PM

regs, what's the original friendly investment stand at now? or are u using your own dollars?

**Regul8er** · 03-04-14, 06:58 PM

haha, using my own dollars. The challenge didn't last long, as my friend got greedy and pulled the plug. Before doing so, he paid me for my work over a few days time, which was a few hundred if I remember. I've done extremely well with that money from November until now......as I think I've received 5 or 6 max payouts from my book, helping me get rid of some debt among other things. I need to solely focus on NCAAB and MLB......I get buried in everything else.

I thought this would be fun over the next few weeks. Also, the plan is for this to make me accountable to strictly wager to win 1 unit...and not go off the deep end after a few bad beats, which will undoubtedly happen.

**inZane** · 03-04-14, 07:11 PM

Originally posted by Regul8er

Your right inZane....Jacksonville horrible SU on the road, and Mercer is fantastic SU at home. Jacksonville had a disappointing season, after they predicted to finish top 4 in the conference, with 4 seniors in the starting lineup. I think we caught a glimpse of it in the last games as they beat Upstate, ETSU and even there last defeat at Mercer. Yes, they lost the game by 14, but trailed by 2 with about 8 minutes left, and just couldn't score down the stretch. When looking strictly at Conference games, offensively these teams are very similar in most categories. Defensively Mercer has a huge advantage, as teams shoot under 40% from the field, while opponents shoot about 49% against Jacksonville....yes, big difference! In 18 A-Sun games, Jacksonville who is a good offensive team, had their 2 worst shooting performances against Mercer. I don't think it's by accident based on Mercer's season long defensive success......but I'm relying on the fact that Jacksonville will study the tapes, and find ways to get better percentage looks. They are a veteran led squad, and hanging with mercer over the weekend should give them confidence coming in tonight.

No opinion on the totals.....sorry!

Good analysis Regul8er, I dropped my Mercer bet. Win or lose, I look forward to comparing future plays with you, esp. with these small schools.Good luck...

**inZane** · 03-05-14, 08:13 AM

Great job last night, Reg! There's a lot of these small school match-ups again tonight, let's do it!

**Regul8er** · 03-05-14, 08:40 AM

Thanks inZane......I feel bad because the only loss on my card was the game I talked you away from. Hopefully you tailed a few of the winners! But Jacksonville did the exact thing they did 3 days earlier. Were right in the game with about 10 mins to go, then couldn't buy a bucket. I'll be posting plays today from the Big South, Patriot League, Northeast and Ohio Valley!

But yes, 6-1 on the night for +4.95 units.......very happy with the start. Some fortunate wins mixed in there with Youngstown and Illinois Chicago winning by the hook, and ETSU winning by 1 point in Double OT. These are the wins you need to have, so let's hope they continue. I actually caught the end of the ETSU game, and boy was the finish crazy. Lipscomb up 2, and fouls ETSU with 11 seconds left......ETSU hit both free throws to tie the game. Lipscomb gets the last shot, and misses with about 3 seconds left. Apparently a guy on Lipscomb thought they were losing, and immediately wrapped up ETSU's rebounder with about 1 second left. Hit 1 of 2 FT's, and win by a point! Crazy stat of that game; 77 3 pointers attempted, 47 by Lipscomb. I'm sure it's not a record, but does anyone have that info?

(Mon, Mar 3rd) 2-0, +2.00 units
(Tues, Mar 4th) 6-1, +4.95 units
__________________________
(Overall) 8-1, +6.95 units

**inZane** · 03-05-14, 09:16 AM

Originally posted by Regul8er

Thanks inZane......I feel bad because the only loss on my card was the game I talked you away from. Hopefully you tailed a few of the winners! But Jacksonville did the exact thing they did 3 days earlier. Were right in the game with about 10 mins to go, then couldn't buy a bucket. I'll be posting plays today from the Big South, Patriot League, Northeast and Ohio Valley!

But yes, 6-1 on the night for +4.95 units.......very happy with the start. Some fortunate wins mixed in there with Youngstown and Illinois Chicago winning by the hook, and ETSU winning by 1 point in Double OT. These are the wins you need to have, so let's hope they continue. I actually caught the end of the ETSU game, and boy was the finish crazy. Lipscomb up 2, and fouls ETSU with 11 seconds left......ETSU hit both free throws to tie the game. Lipscomb gets the last shot, and misses with about 3 seconds left. Apparently a guy on Lipscomb thought they were losing, and immediately wrapped up ETSU's rebounder with about 1 second left. Hit 1 of 2 FT's, and win by a point! Crazy stat of that game; 77 3 pointers attempted, 47 by Lipscomb. I'm sure it's not a record, but does anyone have that info?

(Mon, Mar 3rd) 2-0, +2.00 units
(Tues, Mar 4th) 6-1, +4.95 units
__________________________
(Overall) 8-1, +6.95 units

Don't worry about it, I had FGU and the under, as well as some other totals that hit. All in all I did okay. Be aware there are 3 early games today, all small school playoffs.

**Regul8er** · 03-05-14, 09:53 AM

OK good. Yes, I have everything in a spreadsheet, definitely on top of it. I will have the 12pm and 2pm Big South plays posted in the next hour or so.

**Regul8er** · 03-05-14, 10:57 AM

I'll get the rest of the games posted up later in the afternoon. Just wanted to make sure and get the two afternoon games up prior to tip.

Wednesday, March 5th

(Big South) Winthrop ML - 1.75 units to Win 1 Unit
(Big South) Radford -13.5 - 1.05 units to Win 1 Unit

The only thing that really scares me about the Winthrop/Liberty game is the fact that Liberty has two JR's and 2 SR's starting from a team that won the Big South Tournament last year and punching its ticket to the dance. I see that there 11-20 overall with an RPI over 300 and 1 win over a DI school who finished above .500 (VMI) But then I notice they were like 12-20 last year before making a run in Conway. Outside of this, I like the Eagles to win this game. Veteran lineup to match Liberty's experience, and they are rolling going 7-2 in their last 9. When comparing conference only stats, the only area Radford really has Winthrop beat is rebounding margin. They lead the conference with a 5.8 rebounding margin, while Winthrop sits at -0.9. Outside of this, advantages for Winthrop all over the board. Winthrop hits 3.5 more 3's per game, and shoots em at a much higher percentage. Winthrop gets to the line 3 more times per game, and shoots em at a higher percentage. And finally, Winthrop owns the best TO margin in conference games at 2.44, while Liberty owns the 2nd worst at -2.81......huge difference. Based on everything I've studied, I thought Winthrop was going to be in the -6 or -7 range....so I'll happily pay -175 on the ML here.

Not as long of a writeup for Radford/Presbyterian. Presbyterian starts 3 FR, including their point guard....they rank at or near the bottom in nearly every offensive and defensive category. Radford starts 3 JR, including their point guard...and rank near the top of most offensive categories, and middle of the pack defensively. Further, Radford handled Presbyterian on the road by 17 a few weeks ago. I also like the fact that Radford was 6-2 on the road in conference, meaning their comfortable outside their own gym. Since January 8th, they have 7 wins by 9 or more points, including double digits wins over Asheville, Winthrop and High Point. With this said, I don't think asking to beat the Blue Hose by 14 is too steep. Finally, I had a wager on Presbyterian against Bowling Green in a pre-season tournament earlier the year and watched the game. BG won that game by 20+, and I vowed to remember how bad Presbyterian was......now is the time! lol

**Bet10Heinekens** · 03-05-14, 11:03 AM

On the Winthrop ml also

Good Luck Reg8, hope you go on a heater during March

**inZane** · 03-05-14, 11:16 AM

Good write-up Reg, I was already on Winthrop and the over and just added Radford. Good luck, Bro!

**Bet10Heinekens** · 03-05-14, 01:34 PM

dang, Radford up to -15 now

**sportsguy04** · 03-05-14, 01:34 PM

Rad ford should win by 20.

**Louisvillekid1** · 03-05-14, 01:44 PM

Great thread

**Regul8er** · 03-05-14, 01:46 PM

Thanks LKid....Winthrop took control knocking down late 3's and going 21-21 from the charity stripe. I won't be providing analysis for all my later picks, or I'd be on here all day. Just know that I'm putting very similar inner-analysis on all the games, not just pulling from a hat. If you need a reason and I see it...I'll try and respond.

**inZane** · 03-05-14, 02:29 PM

Originally posted by Regul8er

Thanks LKid....Winthrop took control knocking down late 3's and going 21-21 from the charity stripe. I won't be providing analysis for all my later picks, or I'd be on here all day. Just know that I'm putting very similar inner-analysis on all the games, not just pulling from a hat. If you need a reason and I see it...I'll try and respond.

Take your time Reg, you're off to a great start!

**Regul8er** · 03-05-14, 04:00 PM

I'll have my picks up by 5pm EST. Looks like 1-1 in the early games. When Radford got up 15 a few mins ago, I thought I had it....didn't anticipate an 11-0 run by the Hose, including a 3 point barrage from the worst shooting 3 point team in the conference. Nearly matched their makes per game in a 1 minute stretch, lol. Big card tonight.

**Regul8er** · 03-05-14, 04:47 PM

Alright guys.....here we go. Heavy card tonight. Just the beginning of the grind. Been working on these games for hours today, after getting all my info together on these conferences together the past few days. Hoping for a nice night.

Wednesday, March 5th (continued)

(Big South) Campbell +6 - 1.05 units to Win 1 Unit
(Big South) Longwood +13 - 1.05 units to Win 1 Unit
(Ohio Valley) Tennessee Tech ML - 2.10 units to Win 1 unit
(Ohio Valley) Eastern Illinois +7 - 1.05 units to Win 1 unit
(Patriot League) Boston University -8.5 - 1.09 units to Win 1 unit
(Patriot League) Bucknell ML - 2.40 units to Win 1 unit
(Patriot League) Lehigh +8.5 - 1.01 units to Win 1 unit
(Patriot League) Colgate +6.5 - 1.05 units to Win 1 unit
(Northeast) Fairleigh Dickinson +11 - 1.05 units to Win 1 unit
(Northeast) Central Connecticut +11.5 - 1.02 units to Win 1 unit
(Northeast) Bryant -12.5 - 1.05 units to Win 1 unit
(Northeast) St. Francis (NY) ML - 0.67 units to Win 1 unit

**inZane** · 03-05-14, 05:55 PM

Thanks for the work,Reg. I know how much time this shit takes. Appreciate your input on these teams I don't know jack about. Looks like a lot of dogs barking, I love dogs. Best of luck, my man.

**Regul8er** · 03-05-14, 09:02 PM

Wow...did Bucknell ever fu(k up my day. Up 7 with ball just over 2 mins to go at home. These are the ones that are very hard to recover from!

**Regul8er** · 03-05-14, 09:28 PM

And then st francis NY up 10 with 1:30 left loses. I might just bugger off and keep to myself. Sbr jinx hitting way too early for me to handle

**Regul8er** · 03-05-14, 09:56 PM

Just difficult I know I have to win 5 straight just to get back what I had already counted as wins. Very cruel game this is. St Francis was completely unacceptable. A 80% FT shooter went 1-4 in last few seconds to give MSM shot at te last second 3

**inZane** · 03-06-14, 07:41 AM

Tough breaks Reg. We've all been there. Believe me I know when a guy puts in all the time and energy to cap these games and either loses or breaks even makes you wonder why you do it. I still think you've got a lot of insight and knowledge to pick plenty of winners. This party's just starting!

**Regul8er** · 03-06-14, 08:40 AM

Thanks inZane.....I'm gonna stick with this for at least another day. I just looked at play by play, and St. Francis NY led by 19 with under 10 mins to go...lol. But let's update last night's record.

(Mon, Mar 3rd) 2-0, +2.00 units
(Tues, Mar 4th) 6-1, +4.95 units
(Wed, Mar 5th) 5-9, -5.39 units
__________________________
(Overall) 13-10 (56.5%), +1.56 units

**Regul8er** · 03-06-14, 01:56 PM

I'll have my card up shortly. Yesterday's dog day might be flipped today........having a tough time finding underdog value today.

**Regul8er** · 03-06-14, 04:33 PM

Quite a few ML favorites! I can't help it, I hate taking favorites with the spread when it's in the 3-5 range....been burnt way too many times. I hope this decision doesn't hurt me either, lol. My favorites tonight are Morehead St and Drake.

Thursday, March 6th

(Metro Atlantic) Rider ML - 1.70 units to Win 1 Unit
(Metro Atlantic) Fairfield +3 - 1.08 units to Win 1 Unit
(Metro Atlantic) Marist ML - 1.75 units to Win 1 unit
(Ohio Valley) Morehead St ML - 1.90 units to Win 1 unit
(Ohio Valley) Eastern Kentucky -4.5 - 1.04 units to Win 1 unit
(Atlantic Sun) East Tennessee St +10 - 1.05 units to Win 1 unit
(Atlantic Sun) USC Upstate +8 - 1.07 units to Win 1 unit
(Missouri Valley) Drake ML - 1.35 units to Win 1 unit
(Missouri Valley) Bradley ML - 1.45 units to Win 1 unit
(West Coast) Loyola Marymount +3.5 - 1.08 units to Win 1 unit
(West Coast) Pacific -2 - 1.02 units to Win 1 unit

Goodluck to everyone tonight. Let's cash boys!

**inZane** · 03-06-14, 05:59 PM

Good luck, Reg. May the free throws and whistles go our way!

**inZane** · 03-06-14, 06:54 PM

Good start, had Rider and under, took E ten st and over. Let's go Reg.

**Regul8er** · 03-07-14, 12:16 AM

My two largest plays in terms of risk both lose on last second shots. Bradley gives up 1, Marist cant hit 1. Who ever said things even out in the end is a fu(kin liar.....10 years and it never has for me. It rarely even fools me

**Regul8er** · 03-07-14, 01:22 AM

Such a promising start to my day and then a bad beat, and then downhill spiral that killed all profits made. Pacific is about the worst team ive seen all year, truly and utterly fn pathetic

**inZane** · 03-07-14, 08:04 AM

In spite of those bad beats, and the Fairfield push, (which I lost because I had Fair. plus 2.5), you still had a better day than Wed. Today will be even better, I know it! These bullshit trends have got to turn around.

**Regul8er** · 03-07-14, 08:23 AM

Thanks Man.....but still pretty fired up. I'm putting in way too much effort to lose every game that comes down to the last possession. Just in the last 2 days:

1) St. Francis (NY) ML - up 19 with under 10 mins to go......Mount St. Mary's hits a 3 with 1 second left to win by 1 --> 1.67 unit swing
2) Bucknell ML - up 7 with 2:30 to go and the ball at home....Army hits a game winning shot with 13 seconds left --> 3.40 unit swing
3) Bradley ML - made a great comeback to get a 1 point lead....only to see Loyola hit a crazy running buzzer beating 3 --> 2.45 unit swing
4) Marist ML - I lose every buzzer beater, except when the team I backed gets a shot to win, after a nice run --> 2.75 unit swing
5) Fairfield +3 - After fu(kin up in regulation, St. Peter's hits a 3 pointer at the buzzer to win by 3 for a stupid push --> 1 unit swing

That's an 11.27 unit.........it's honestly just too much to recover from. I'd be chasing the next 2 weeks to MAYBE get that back. Not saying I should win every game that's tight, but how about a couple.

Thanks for the support!