Non-major conferences can have weak lines

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  • QuantumLeap
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 08-22-08
    • 6878

    #71
    This one is still available. I wan to see how this "hunch" goes.

    Cal Riv +9 over Cal Irvine
    Comment
    • pimike
      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
      • 03-23-08
      • 37139

      #72
      Nevada was a push or win. Some got 14

      Should had won. Easy. 10 min no baskets...

      Fans were crazy!!

      Fun game to be at.
      Comment
      • QuantumLeap
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 08-22-08
        • 6878

        #73
        Originally posted by pimike
        Nevada was a push or win. Some got 14

        Should had won. Easy. 10 min no baskets...

        Fans were crazy!!

        Fun game to be at.
        I was thinking about taking SDSU. I would have taken it at -13 1/2 but held off since you were on Nevada so you saved me some money.
        Comment
        • QuantumLeap
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 08-22-08
          • 6878

          #74
          Here's the synopsis of the last 2 days.

          Winners
          Yale
          Canisius
          Iowa
          Baylor
          DePaul
          Detroit Mercy
          Florida
          UNLV (won by 21)
          Boise St (won outright)
          Idaho St

          Losses
          Baylor under (no more totals for me)
          Alabama A&M (mistake, thought they were at home)
          Arkansas (tied it at 44 and the Ky coach got thrown out inspiring the players)
          Nebraska (failed to cover by 1 1/2)
          Seattle (was close until they failed to cover by 4 1/2)
          UC Riverside
          UCSB
          Comment
          • QuantumLeap
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 08-22-08
            • 6878

            #75
            I think I'm going to start 2 new threads next week: 1 for small schools and 1 for home/away.

            Rutgers 8-2-1 ATS at home this year (26-14 home ATS last 2 years). Minnesota 2-3 road ATS this year (10-16 road ATS last 2 years)

            Rutgers -5 1/2

            I can't understand why Siena has been favored so much on the road this year. They are 0-8 on the road.

            Niagara +3
            Comment
            • pimike
              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
              • 03-23-08
              • 37139

              #76
              Originally posted by QuantumLeap
              I was thinking about taking SDSU. I would have taken it at -13 1/2 but held off since you were on Nevada so you saved me some money.
              Well shoot! Glad I did something to help you.. lol.

              Keep em coming bud...

              Comment
              • QuantumLeap
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 08-22-08
                • 6878

                #77
                I bet against Canisius last week and they covered and that brought my attention to them. I then bet on them the next game and they came through for me. They have new-found confidence going into a home game against Rider who is 2-7 ATS on the road this year.

                Canisius +2

                Another Summit Conference battle. We have been paying special attention to this conference in this thread. It has a great home ATS record outside of W Illinois and Denver.

                This game was postponed from Saturday to to a snow storm. NDSU is a powerhouse in this league and failed to cover ATS at home their last game. But this was against South Dakota which is a decent team. The same can't be said for NDSU's cross-state rivals North Dakota.

                NDSU -7 1/2
                Comment
                • QuantumLeap
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 08-22-08
                  • 6878

                  #78
                  13-5 Drake are only 1 1/2 point favorites against 8-10 SIU. What's wrong with this picture? Nothing. SIU has covered their last 6 home games ATS. Drake is 3-4 ATS on the road but 2 of those games they covered were at a neutral site so their opponent was on the road as well.

                  SIU +1 1/2

                  KC is 6-2 SU at home. GCU is 1-5 ATS on the road.

                  KC -2 1/2
                  Comment
                  • QuantumLeap
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 08-22-08
                    • 6878

                    #79
                    WIN) Rutgers -5 1/2
                    WIN) Niagara +3 (Siena still hasn't won on the road.)
                    WIN) Canisius +2
                    WIN) NDSU -7 1/2
                    WIN) SIU +1 1/2 (won by 17)
                    Loss) KC -2 1/2

                    5-1 today

                    15-8 Fri/Sat/Sun

                    I'll start a new thread on Monday.
                    Comment
                    • pimike
                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                      • 03-23-08
                      • 37139

                      #80
                      Originally posted by QuantumLeap
                      WIN) Rutgers -5 1/2
                      WIN) Niagara +3 (Siena still hasn't won on the road.)
                      WIN) Canisius +2
                      WIN) NDSU -7 1/2
                      WIN) SIU +1 1/2 (won by 17)
                      Loss) KC -2 1/2

                      5-1 today

                      15-8 Fri/Sat/Sun

                      I'll start a new thread on Monday.
                      Very quiet winning thread!!

                      Great job in here!!!
                      Comment
                      • QuantumLeap
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 08-22-08
                        • 6878

                        #81
                        Originally posted by pimike
                        Very quiet winning thread!!

                        Great job in here!!!
                        Thanks Mike. Just throwing around some loose change. Will start a new thread.
                        Comment
                        • Mike Huntertz
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 08-19-09
                          • 11206

                          #82
                          Q-Leap, well done.....mo money for hookers!
                          Comment
                          • QuantumLeap
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 08-22-08
                            • 6878

                            #83
                            Originally posted by Mike Huntertz
                            Q-Leap, well done.....mo money for hookers!
                            Yes Mike!

                            How are things up north?
                            Comment
                            • Mike Huntertz
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 08-19-09
                              • 11206

                              #84
                              Originally posted by QuantumLeap
                              Yes Mike!

                              How are things up north?
                              Doing well except for I'm 3 weeks into Dryuary!
                              A drink goes well while watching a game.
                              How are things with you other than wining money?

                              Coaster
                              Comment
                              • QuantumLeap
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 08-22-08
                                • 6878

                                #85
                                Originally posted by kingdom
                                i have done well with cal at home and cal baptist. stanford is another team that crushes home lines going 26-9 ats last 35. i know they are in a bigger conf, but other pac teams are rather inconsistent. i pay attention to the fades too. like fullerton 14-31 ats last 45. cal poly at home 16-45 ats since '14. liberty 7-30 o/u at home. iowa st. is 44-19 o/u on road since 14' so with so many games, there are sweet lines across the board. one reason i like purdue today is they are 51-25-2 ats at home since 14' and they are in the big 10. and i bookmarked cal baptist earlier in the season as they are now 19-6 ats last 25 matchups

                                the summit conf alone is 85-48-2 at home last 2 seasons (excluding denver) including 31-12 ats this year. i spend a lot of time looking for strong trends that are consistent over a season or more.

                                https://sportsdatabase.com/ncaabb/qu...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
                                OK, I think I'm going to concentrate more on teams like you mention that have established records like the ones you show. Later on, my NCAABB betting kind of got off track and I started paying attention to teams that were hot and of course they cool off.

                                One team I've found to be gold to fade is Cal on the road and it hasn't been close. I think the closest game they've played was a loss by 10 points to UCLA. It's like they aren't even trying and they're counting on winning at home to get a good record.

                                I also played Cal Baptist today. Seattle was favored by 2. Yes, Seattle was at home but Cal Baptist has a good road record.

                                Stanford also covered at home today.

                                I think I'll stay away from the home teams for the Summit Conference for now. That tide seems to be changing.

                                So here is the schedule of teams I'm watching:

                                Tonight Utah State (away)
                                Last 3 seasons 9-17 ATS away.

                                2/5 Cal Poly (home) [caution: they have covered their last 2 home games]
                                Last 2 seasons 4-12 ATS at home.

                                2/5 Cal State Fullerton (home)
                                Last 2 seasons 3-15 ATS at home.

                                2/5 Purdue (home)
                                Last 2 seasons 18-8 ATS at home.

                                2/6 Cal (away)
                                2/8 Cal (away)
                                Last 2 seasons 3-15 ATS away.

                                2/13 Stanford (home)
                                2/15 Stanford (home)
                                Last 2 seasons 18-9 ATS at home.
                                Last edited by QuantumLeap; 02-01-20, 10:16 PM.
                                Comment
                                • QuantumLeap
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 08-22-08
                                  • 6878

                                  #86
                                  Utah State lead by 8 at the half but San Diego St was too much for them outscoring the Aggies 49-29 in the 2nd half to cover easily.
                                  Comment
                                  • QuantumLeap
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 08-22-08
                                    • 6878

                                    #87
                                    I missed Lafayette tonight. They are 17-8 ATS on the road in the last couple years.
                                    Comment
                                    • QuantumLeap
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 08-22-08
                                      • 6878

                                      #88
                                      Alabama A&M +7 over Prairie View

                                      This one isn't as solid as others due to the lower amount of games. Here is their ATS record at home.

                                      2018: 8-3
                                      2019: 4-2
                                      Total last 3 season: 12-5
                                      Comment
                                      • QuantumLeap
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 08-22-08
                                        • 6878

                                        #89
                                        Sometimes you just have to go against the numbers. Baylor is #1 in the country and is 17-9-1 on the road the last 3 years.

                                        What makes me think this is a trap is that it's almost the last game of the night and 75+% are on Baylor.

                                        K State +7 over Baylor
                                        Comment
                                        • QuantumLeap
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 08-22-08
                                          • 6878

                                          #90
                                          Originally posted by QuantumLeap
                                          I missed Lafayette tonight. They are 17-8 ATS on the road in the last couple years.
                                          Lafayette wins and covers.

                                          Comment
                                          • QuantumLeap
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 08-22-08
                                            • 6878

                                            #91
                                            Originally posted by QuantumLeap
                                            Sometimes you just have to go against the numbers. Baylor is #1 in the country and is 17-9-1 on the road the last 3 years.

                                            What makes me think this is a trap is that it's almost the last game of the night and 75+% are on Baylor.

                                            K State +7 over Baylor
                                            WINNER!!!!!

                                            K State sinks a 3 with less than 10 seconds left and Baylor tanks 2 FTs for the Wildcats to cover!!!
                                            Comment
                                            • QuantumLeap
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 08-22-08
                                              • 6878

                                              #92
                                              Originally posted by QuantumLeap
                                              Alabama A&M +7 over Prairie View

                                              This one isn't as solid as others due to the lower amount of games. Here is their ATS record at home.

                                              2018: 8-3
                                              2019: 4-2
                                              Total last 3 season: 12-5
                                              I broke my own rule here: "Never count on a bad team to cover the spread". Alabama A&M is now 5-14. I bet this one less due to the lower sample set. Alabama A&M lead at half but was overpowered in the 2nd.
                                              Comment
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