Non-major conferences can have weak lines

[QuantumLeap]

I have been noticing what I thought were some weak lines yesterday in the non-major conferences. There are so many games how can the books get sharp lines for every game. Keep in mind that hindsight is 20/20 so some of my observations could be just that, hindsight.

One game yesterday was So Dak St against Fort Wayne. SDSU was a 2 point favorite on the road. I'm guessing this line was this small because Ft. Wayne had a good home record. But this SDSU team is constantly at the top of its conference and gave Arizona a good run on the road. SDSU lead 40-20 at the half and covered easily.

Another game was California Baptist. I've been rather impressed with them after giving South Dakota a good run. South Dakota has a great record at home. They were an underdog against Grand Canyon who was 3-7 in their last 10. Cal Baptist ended up winning by 4.

Feel free to chime in on any others you may think are off. I especially like the games where the team I think is better is favored by only a few or else underdogs.

[QuantumLeap]

My first pick is St. Peter's -2 over Canisius. This is not so much of a bet on St. Pete but a bet against Canisius. They are 1-8 on the road. Now I know that road records can be misleading this time of year since these weaker teams play warmup games for the major conference teams. However, Canisius has lost their last 8 out of 9 games.

St. Pete has played 6 out of their last 8 games on the road and will be having some home cooking. Their last 2 home games have been convincing. They are 2-1 in conference play and will look for this game to be a good leg up to a 3-1 record against Canisius who is 0-4 in conference play. St. Peter's is 8-1 ATS in their last 9.

[kingdom]

i have done well with cal at home and cal baptist. stanford is another team that crushes home lines going 26-9 ats last 35. i know they are in a bigger conf, but other pac teams are rather inconsistent. i pay attention to the fades too. like fullerton 14-31 ats last 45. cal poly at home 16-45 ats since '14. liberty 7-30 o/u at home. iowa st. is 44-19 o/u on road since 14' so with so many games, there are sweet lines across the board. one reason i like purdue today is they are 51-25-2 ats at home since 14' and they are in the big 10. and i bookmarked cal baptist earlier in the season as they are now 19-6 ats last 25 matchups

the summit conf alone is 85-48-2 at home last 2 seasons (excluding denver) including 31-12 ats this year. i spend a lot of time looking for strong trends that are consistent over a season or more.

https://sportsdatabase.com/ncaabb/query?output=default&sdql=conference+%3D+SUMM+and+H+and+team%21%3DDENV++and+season+%3E+2017&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

[QuantumLeap]

Wright St -5 1/2 over Ill-Chicago
Two totally different class of teams here. The thing I like about this pick is that Wright State has been dominating teams. With the exception of a 1-point win against Detroit U they have won by 6 points or more in their last 7 games.

[QuantumLeap]

i have done well with cal at home and cal baptist. stanford is another team that crushes home lines going 26-9 ats last 35. i know they are in a bigger conf, but other pac teams are rather inconsistent. i pay attention to the fades too. like fullerton 14-31 ats last 45. cal poly at home 16-45 ats since '14. liberty 7-30 o/u at home. iowa st. is 44-19 o/u on road since 14' so with so many games, there are sweet lines across the board. one reason i like purdue today is they are 51-25-2 ats at home since 14' and they are in the big 10. and i bookmarked cal baptist earlier in the season as they are now 19-6 ats last 25 matchups

the summit conf alone is 85-48-2 at home last 2 seasons (excluding denver) including 31-12 ats this year. i spend a lot of time looking for strong trends that are consistent over a season or more.

https://sportsdatabase.com/ncaabb/qu...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

Most excellent info! Even the big conferences can have soft lines. That Michigan State team was just too obvious so I stayed away from it.

One thing to watch out for when going back so many seasons is when a team turns around. Cal Poly used to be the doormat of their conference for so many years and I believe they are doing much better this year. Just something to consider.

I'll try to track Cal Baptist in this thread for their next game.

[kingdom]

My first pick is St. Peter's -2 over Canisius. This is not so much of a bet on St. Pete but a bet against Canisius. They are 1-8 on the road. Now I know that road records can be misleading this time of year since these weaker teams play warmup games for the major conference teams. However, Canisius has lost their last 8 out of 9 games.

St. Pete has played 6 out of their last 8 games on the road and will be having some home cooking. Their last 2 home games have been convincing. They are 2-1 in conference play and will look for this game to be a good leg up to a 3-1 record against Canisius who is 0-4 in conference play. St. Peter's is 8-1 ATS in their last 9.

gl on your play. i did lose on canisius the other night. i consider them as a team i play as a dog. they are 22-13 ats road last two years and play close to the number. st petes has been hot going 14-4 ats. i took it as a no play as canisius plays so close to the number so often. they lose often su. but ats can be solid.

https://sportsdatabase.com/ncaabb/query?output=default&sdql=t%3Ateam%3DCAN+and++A+and+date%3E%3D20170222&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

[pimike]

Good stuff here!!!

[QuantumLeap]

gl on your play. i did lose on canisius the other night. i consider them as a team i play as a dog. they are 22-13 ats road last two years and play close to the number. st petes has been hot going 14-4 ats. i took it as a no play as canisius plays so close to the number so often. they lose often su. but ats can be solid.

https://sportsdatabase.com/ncaabb/qu...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

I noticed that about Canisius too but I thought this 2 point spread was enough for St. Pete's to cover.

[QuantumLeap]

Good stuff here!!!

Thanks Mike. Just finding some fun on a slow basketball day. Waiting for baseball to start in a couple months.

[QuantumLeap]

i have done well with cal at home and cal baptist. stanford is another team that crushes home lines going 26-9 ats last 35. i know they are in a bigger conf, but other pac teams are rather inconsistent. i pay attention to the fades too. like fullerton 14-31 ats last 45. cal poly at home 16-45 ats since '14. liberty 7-30 o/u at home. iowa st. is 44-19 o/u on road since 14' so with so many games, there are sweet lines across the board. one reason i like purdue today is they are 51-25-2 ats at home since 14' and they are in the big 10. and i bookmarked cal baptist earlier in the season as they are now 19-6 ats last 25 matchups

the summit conf alone is 85-48-2 at home last 2 seasons (excluding denver) including 31-12 ats this year. i spend a lot of time looking for strong trends that are consistent over a season or more.

https://sportsdatabase.com/ncaabb/qu...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

Stanford plays their next home game Jan. 30th against Oregon St.
Cal Baptist plays their next game Jan. 17th against Bethesda. Cal Baptist beat them 115-65 in their last meeting last season.
Cal plays their next home game Jan. 26th against Stanford.

[QuantumLeap]

One that I missed due to being too cautious is Manhattan +2 1/2 over Siena. Siena is 0-6 on the road and Manhattan has 9 out of their last 10 on the road but I didn't want to play the "home cooking" angle too much.

I just checked back on Siena's road games. Only once, against Harvard, did they outscore their opponent in the 2nd half. The second half line is Manhattan +5 so I'll take that. I'm hoping Siena phones this one in and Manhattan continues to roll.

[pimike]

Thanks Mike. Just finding some fun on a slow basketball day. Waiting for baseball to start in a couple months.

Baseball can’t get here fast enough’!!!

[QuantumLeap]

My first pick is St. Peter's -2 over Canisius. This is not so much of a bet on St. Pete but a bet against Canisius. They are 1-8 on the road. Now I know that road records can be misleading this time of year since these weaker teams play warmup games for the major conference teams. However, Canisius has lost their last 8 out of 9 games.

St. Pete has played 6 out of their last 8 games on the road and will be having some home cooking. Their last 2 home games have been convincing. They are 2-1 in conference play and will look for this game to be a good leg up to a 3-1 record against Canisius who is 0-4 in conference play. St. Peter's is 8-1 ATS in their last 9.

St. Peter's was up by 5 with 2:48 left and fail to score the rest of the game. Canisius wins by 4.

[kingdom]

One that I missed due to being too cautious is Manhattan +2 1/2 over Siena. Siena is 0-6 on the road and Manhattan has 9 out of their last 10 on the road but I didn't want to play the "home cooking" angle too much.

I just checked back on Siena's road games. Only once, against Harvard, did they outscore their opponent in the 2nd half. The second half line is Manhattan +5 so I'll take that. I'm hoping Siena phones this one in and Manhattan continues to roll.

i looked hard at manhattan too. but this is a sporadic conf. and don't wanna take too many chances. i learned that many a friday night when only action was this and ivy league. now in the pac 12 i think both are giving too many points and both may lose su. i think memphis wins ml and couldn't pull trigger on under. when they play well in tight games it goes under. sometimes you just sit it out and watch.

[QuantumLeap]

Looks like we have some Summit League for Wednesday night. First 2 games I would like to comment on (Battle of the Dakotas).

So Dak State is 10-0 at home and have covered their last 6 at Frost Arena. No Dak is 4-9 ATS on the road.

South Dakota is a relatively good team.....at home. They haven't covered the line on the road since November when they played a tournament in Hawaii. North Dak St has covered their last 3 home games. Don't over think this.

[QuantumLeap]

i have done well with cal at home and cal baptist. stanford is another team that crushes home lines going 26-9 ats last 35. i know they are in a bigger conf, but other pac teams are rather inconsistent. i pay attention to the fades too. like fullerton 14-31 ats last 45. cal poly at home 16-45 ats since '14. liberty 7-30 o/u at home. iowa st. is 44-19 o/u on road since 14' so with so many games, there are sweet lines across the board. one reason i like purdue today is they are 51-25-2 ats at home since 14' and they are in the big 10. and i bookmarked cal baptist earlier in the season as they are now 19-6 ats last 25 matchups

the summit conf alone is 85-48-2 at home last 2 seasons (excluding denver) including 31-12 ats this year. i spend a lot of time looking for strong trends that are consistent over a season or more.

https://sportsdatabase.com/ncaabb/qu...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

Iowa State plays on the road at Baylor. Going with over 138.

[kingdom]

Iowa State plays on the road at Baylor. Going with over 138.

i like it. gl. i went with uga over 137 today. s. dakota state i looked at as the most secure ml bet for a parlay tonight. i have a feeling they roll and looking at unlv for later.

[kingdom]

i was scared to play samford over today just being a bit tight as there are so many wednesday games it can feel like a buffet. but they are definitely a fade ats and a great over play as a dog.

https://sportsdatabase.com/ncaabb/query?sdql=%28t%3Ateam%3DSAM%20and%20D%20and%20date%3E%3D20170121%29%20as%20%22SAM%20is%2037-16%20OU%20%289.24%20ppg%29%20since%20Jan%2021%2C%202017%20as%20a%20dog.%22

[QuantumLeap]

i like it. gl. i went with uga over 137 today. s. dakota state i looked at as the most secure ml bet for a parlay tonight. i have a feeling they roll and looking at unlv for later.

Don't know what happened to Iowa State.

I'm going to have to keep an eye out for the So Dak St Jackrabbit team. They've covered the line 7 out of their last 8.

[kingdom]

Don't know what happened to Iowa State.

I'm going to have to keep an eye out for the So Dak St Jackrabbit team. They've covered the line 7 out of their last 8.

Have to credit baylor defense. no one has scored 60 on them in the past 5 games and only twice in the last 10. i didn't look into that game very much until halftime and seeing the score. i did some digging on baylor and their d is really solid. even moreso since conf. play has started. they quietly jumped up to no. 2 in country by winning 14 of 15. i guess we are gonna have to pay attention now. with that defense they can make a serious tourney run too.

another night i didn't fade fullerton and they are getting whooped again. they have 4 more games in january.

[pimike]

Let’s get em tomorrow bud!!

[kingdom]

i have done well with cal at home and cal baptist. stanford is another team that crushes home lines going 26-9 ats last 35. i know they are in a bigger conf, but other pac teams are rather inconsistent. i pay attention to the fades too. like fullerton 14-31 ats last 45. cal poly at home 16-45 ats since '14. liberty 7-30 o/u at home. iowa st. is 44-19 o/u on road since 14' so with so many games, there are sweet lines across the board. one reason i like purdue today is they are 51-25-2 ats at home since 14' and they are in the big 10. and i bookmarked cal baptist earlier in the season as they are now 19-6 ats last 25 matchups

the summit conf alone is 85-48-2 at home last 2 seasons (excluding denver) including 31-12 ats this year. i spend a lot of time looking for strong trends that are consistent over a season or more.

starting to think stanford may just be good this year and its not just at home. they are untested on the road but are now 15-2 su and 13-4 ats holding teams to 58 ppg. only losses are to kansas and a 1 pt loss against butler.

hartford is another team i have been watching as they have now won 7 in a row ats. seem to be building confidence and playing better lately.

[kingdom]

murray st. is 25-11 o/u since dec. '18. tenn martin 16-2 o/u since feb. '19. think these guys def hit the over.

https://sportsdatabase.com/ncaabb/query?sdql=%28t%3Ateam%3DTNMA%20and%20date%3E%3D20190221%29%20as%20%22TNMA%20is%2016-2%20OU%20%2811.00%20ppg%29%20since%20Feb%2021%2C%202019.%22

[QuantumLeap]

Have to credit baylor defense. no one has scored 60 on them in the past 5 games and only twice in the last 10. i didn't look into that game very much until halftime and seeing the score. i did some digging on baylor and their d is really solid. even moreso since conf. play has started. they quietly jumped up to no. 2 in country by winning 14 of 15. i guess we are gonna have to pay attention now. with that defense they can make a serious tourney run too.

another night i didn't fade fullerton and they are getting whooped again. they have 4 more games in january.

Baylor's defense was my thought as well.

[QuantumLeap]

murray st. is 25-11 o/u since dec. '18. tenn martin 16-2 o/u since feb. '19. think these guys def hit the over.

Let's go with the over on this one.
In Summit League action tonight, W Illinois is home to Oral Roberts who are 1-8 on the road. However, Oral has played some good teams on the road so I'm staying away from that one.

[kingdom]

i totally missed the fgc under. when these guys win and especially cover, they are going under:

https://sportsdatabase.com/ncaabb/query?sdql=%28t%3Ateam%3DFLOGC%20and%20H%20and%20F%20and%20date%3E%3D20110206%29%20as%20%22FLOGC%20is%208-23%20OU%20%28-4.23%20ppg%29%20since%20Feb%2006%2C%202011%20as%20a%20home%20favorite.%22

[kingdom]

Let's go with the over on this one.
In Summit League action tonight, W Illinois is home to Oral Roberts who are 1-8 on the road. However, Oral has played some good teams on the road so I'm staying away from that one.

i def hopped on the over with murray st. if i lose this, it's like a poker hand. i feel like i did the right thing

[kingdom]

Let's go with the over on this one.
In Summit League action tonight, W Illinois is home to Oral Roberts who are 1-8 on the road. However, Oral has played some good teams on the road so I'm staying away from that one.

i actually excluded w. ll and denver from the query i use as they suck so bad. i use this one:

https://sportsdatabase.com/ncaabb/query?output=default&sdql=conference+%3D+SUMM+and+H+and+team%21%3DDENV+and+team%21%3DWILLI+and+season+%3E+2018&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

[kingdom]

i totally missed the fgc under. when these guys win and especially cover, they are going under:

https://sportsdatabase.com/ncaabb/qu...20favorite.%22

wow. 34-7 at half. had to check two sites to make sure that was real lol.

[QuantumLeap]

wow. 34-7 at half. had to check two sites to make sure that was real lol.

There's always under 65 for 2nd half! I took it.

[QuantumLeap]

i actually excluded w. ll and denver from the query i use as they suck so bad. i use this one:

https://sportsdatabase.com/ncaabb/qu...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

Oftentimes people will look at the record only and see 1-8 on the road and not look at the tough teams they play.

I'm not betting them but I think Oral Roberts covers.

[QuantumLeap]

Let’s get em tomorrow bud!!

I hope you're following along. Good stuff in here!

[QuantumLeap]

Oftentimes people will look at the record only and see 1-8 on the road and not look at the tough teams they play.

I'm not betting them but I think Oral Roberts covers.

87-70!

I'm hoping my instincts are getting better.

This game reminds me of Canisius, who had a bad road record but played teams close. That's really where I think the lines can be off. So many people, myself included, have a tendency to get lazy and only look at one factor, oftentimes the record. If I can find teams that are different than their record like Canisius and Oral Roberts then we can have a decent team with a poor record covering the line.

[trillz]

King any idea cal poly ats on the road? I know u posted they’re ats at home and it was pretty atrocious

[QuantumLeap]

King any idea cal poly ats on the road? I know u posted they’re ats at home and it was pretty atrocious

Cal poly ATS:33-42-4 on the road since 2014.

https://sportsdatabase.com/ncaabb/query?output=default&sdql=team+%3D+CALPO+and+A+and+season+%3E+2013&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++