-
Comment -
Knew that kid was gonna be one to take it, I was screaming at his ass from the inbounds all way up court he better hit it!! Honestly I was more worried wofford was gonna miss a ft! Once they hit both I had a pretty good feeling!! lol.. if you would have told me wofford was gonna score 79 I'd have freaking unloaded on that play, think that biggest upset I've seen based off spread. I've seen bunch of 15-20 point dogs win in my life (handful already this season), don't think I can recall a 25 point dog ever winning!!Comment -
Comment -
Wazzu better start knocking down these open looks before this game gets out of hand!Comment -
Man these assholes missing open 3s, point blank layups, pretty much every good look they get. On bright side they are getting good looks. Surely they will start dropping at some point, right?? If they can stay within striking distance while no shots falling feel like they will have a chance in this game.Comment -
I see we got some more day games 2marro!! Of course gotta take dog to vet so once again I'll prob not get to watch! Always something! LolComment -
Someone needs to slap Flynn, little dipshit taking god awful shots.Comment -
12/21
Liberty -1.. huge style discrepancy here, liberty grinds you down while Fort Wayne likes to get up and down. I tend to lean to the grind it out club in these matchups as it easier to impose that style than it is to speed them up if they know what they doing. The more deliberate club usually tends to be the better defensive squad as is the case here as well. Liberty grinded a very good Houston offense into a game played in the 60s, yes Houston won that game but a 2 point loss to Houston prob the most impressive thing either these teams have done. Think liberty little better team here and will force Fort Wayne into a game they not comfortable playing.Comment -
Tennessee st/Purdue over 133.. started looking at this game thinking under before I even looked at number, more I looked the more I thought maybe not, then I checked out total and saw this 133 and man I think they came low here.
On surface under makes sense, tigers one these bad teams that plays slow and has decent overall defensive numbers and atrocious offensive numbers. When you dig a little deeper you see while their defensive adj efficiency is solid they get that number mostly due to being 5th in the nation turning teams over on 26% of their possessions. That is impressive and all but they doing that against mostly bad teams. When they faced mtsu they didn't turn them over at that kind of clip, and I don't think they will turn Purdue over at that huge clip either as Purdue takes care of the rock. Once you get passed that you see a effective fg percentage allowed of 53.3% which 255 in nation, allowing teams to shoot 36% from behind the arc (213 in nation), 52.5% inside the arc (242). How you think a Purdue squad with a 57.7% effective fg percentage gonna shoot vs them?!?
Boilermakers have hung 80+ on similar paced better defensive clubs like butler, valpo, Maryland, in fact if you take away that island tourney that has notoriously tough shooting conditions Purdue has hung 80+ in all but 2 games!!! I just don't see them being held under 80 here and think they could easily go for more. For arguments sake let's say 80 tho, in that case we need 54 from Tennessee st to get us over this number. As mentioned tigers are not a good offensive team, however they have achieved that number every game but their last against a slow paced very defensive Texas squad. That is not purdue's style so I think it incredibly safe to assume they can once again hit this number and then some. I think we have a good 6-7 points of value here as I think this game played around 139/140.Comment -
Man I hope wazzu can pull the upset, I did sprinkle the ml on my dog today!!Comment -
Cash wazzu. Unreal how good this night could have been without those bs pushes. Still 3-2-2 for another winning day which makes 4 of the last 5!!
Overall: 109-91Comment -
wazzu should of called a timeout when they were down by three. Instead they took a very poor three which essentially sealed the deal for them. bad coaching.Comment -
Did you want it to go to ot? I sure the fukk didn't, they can have that little bit I lost on ml! Lol.. I thought that foul call when it was a 1 point game was total horse shit! Kid went straight up and got all ball, the k-st player initiated the contact to the body, I think you let kids play there but whatever, we get the cash
Comment -
Oregon st -4.5Comment -
Cleveland st/cincy under 137Comment -
Sorry for format and no write ups but I'm in car, letting woman drive but it just hard enough capping them on my phone. Once we get home I'll try to have write ups on any later games I play!Comment -
Wow, Tennessee st not gonna get us the 54 we were hoping for. Mf'ers have 16 at halftime! Lol. Hopefully they start hitting some shots in second half.. feel like 5 of us could score more than 16 in a half!!! LolComment -
Oh yea me either. I had it like a 28-30 point game if memory serves me right (don't have my notes on me at moment). Just thought there was actually few more points of value in the over as I made it 139-140ish.. good start to second half, looks like Tennessee st doubled their halftime score in about 4 minutes!
Comment -
Yea they fell a few points short but still went 5 points over my total which was 7 points higher than they set it I kinda figured Purdue could put up a big number here, Tennessee st overall adj defensive number was very misleading due to fact they force lot of turnovers mostly vs bad teams. Their effective fg percentage allowed was horrendous.
Now just need freaking cincy to play some damn defense, absolutely didn't expect that game to be close when playing the under, why should have I? It was a huge spread for Christ sakes!! LolComment -
Gonzaga/SDst under 151.5...this one has slightly less perceived value than I generally look for but I think the fact books are willing to hang the number here speaks volumes as they a few points under where kenpom has it and zags overs are always the popular side. They played a incredibly low scoring game last year but that doesn't mean much as the aztecs been playing with a much quicker pace under dutcher. What hasn't changed is SDst calling card is still defense and they have the size to compete w zags excellent interior scoring (60% inside the arc). I think interior defense wise aztecs rank favorably to Texas who held zags to 67 points in regulation. Zags interior defense is stout as well and both teams do a good job playing defense without fouling which big here as both get a lot of points from the charity stripe.. where zags d faulters is defending the 3 but aztecs don't really have the shooters to exploit that. I expect this gonna be a tight game, I have zags winning but think the spread is probably a touch high, something like 76-71 which again little less value than I prefer but think books willingness to keep line down here says I'm on right track expecting a game played in low to mid 70s.,Comment -
Idaho-6.. Irvine the more battle tested team but they havnt beaten anyone inside the top 300! This a poor matchup for the anteaters as they very poor defending the 3 and Idaho has 3 sharpshooters that can light you up.Comment -
Bank I want to go all in on someone who should I go all in onComment -
Nothing today bud. I would'nt recommend ever doing that but if you really insistent on doing so sleep on it, if you still feel that way in morning we will find you best possible play.. I really didn't think today was a great card. Surely there be better bets 2marro!!Comment -
As predicted interior defenses ruled the day at sdst. It would take a unreal 2nd half to beat our under as we have 103 points to play with!! now just need vandals to complete their comback and put some distance between between anteaters.
Comment -
Hmph haha glad you will cash if I don’t I guess!! Didn’t expect 6/24 from 3 either.Comment -
12/23
Temple +3..way more battle tested squad here, owls have played the 12th toughest schedule in the country. Uga has a few decent wins but against softies like st Mary's and Marquette. Owls way more hard nosed squad than those teams and don't think uga physicality will bother them. I do worry a little bit about about offensive rebounding but think the advantage uga has there will be offset by temple winning the turnover battle. Ultimately as we talked about with Uga the other day they need to get to the foul line to have much success offensively and owls rank 10th in the country in ft allowed. Uga did have a unreal offensive game the other day vs gtech but I just don't expect them to repeat that effort as that was way out of norm for them. I like Alston and quinton rose to be the difference here in a game I think the dog can win outright.Comment -
Ull/Clemson under 147..toughest thing about this one is there really no favorable comps as ull hasn't played much of a schedule and the few decent teams they have faced are nowhere near tigers caliber and even worse not close stylistically so having to make few assumptions here but think they the correct ones.
1st and foremost pace, ull 77th in adjusted tempo however that is more due to teams they face shooting early in the clock. As I mention often I tend to lean to the deliberate team imposing their style and think that absolutely will be the case here, just don't see them speeding the tigers up. Secondly cajuns 109.7 adj efficiency comes from offensive rebounding where they rank 13th in the country and FTs where they get 21% of their points. That is all well and good but those numbers were piled up facing the 305 schedule in the country! They now facing a tigers team that is 21st in the country in defensive rebounding and 12th when it comes to points allowed at the charity stripe as teams only get 13.7% of their points at the line.
Points are not gonna be easy to come by for the cajuns, you can throw out that 85.2 points a game the Cajuns score cause this a huge step up in class from not just the norm but anyone they have faced. I think if they get the 63 tigers allow on average they will have done well. For arguments sake let's give them 65 which quite honestly I think 5 higher than they will actually get. That leaves Clemson needing 83 to beat us, is that possible? Yes. Likely? No. Tigers average 77 but that down to 72 their last 3. They have only hit or exceeded this number 4x on the season and 3 of those 4 came against atrocious teams ranked outside the top 200 while the other was a 83 point effort vs a pretty bad unc ashville team they held to 53. In fact of those 4x tigers hit 83 or more 2 of them still stayed under this number, one barely went over totalling 150, and just one flew past this number. As I said I would be surprised if la la hit the 65 I'm giving them for arguments sake. Tigers take away the 2 main things cajuns do to achieve their high season average, I see this as being played right around 140 giving us those 7 points of perceived value I crave.Comment -
Southeast Missouri st +7... really don't think there a whole lot separating these teams, they both beat siu by almost identical score only difference being semo did it on the road while slu was at home (a game siu gifted them by the way!). Obviously I don't like my hometown squad as seems I fade them quite often, I can't help it I watch them a lot and I'm not impressed. I feel like they get benefit of a lot of calls for some reason. Travis fords team likes to put their heads down and initiate contact which has lead to the 4th best FT rate in the nation but imo it pure garbage! Red hawks have some capable shooters and slu pretty poor defending the 3, I think between that and the motivation for these kids from little school in cape to compete with the city boys be enough to have this game competitive till the end.Comment -
Really like reading the thread. Good analysis here, in general. G/l to you, Bank.Comment -
Had I gotten to card at opens I would have been all over bama at pk. Less thrilled about them laying 2.5 just cause could very well be close, if I think it could be that close why would I like bama to win so much? Well simple, I'll take sexton at end to win it over anyone longhorns have to offer. Texas offense really struggling since Andrew jones got hurt and he won't be playing this one either. 3 games since he been out horns have managed 52 vs Michigan, 75 vs la tech, then a miserable 47 point performance vs a Tennessee st team Purdue just hung 97 on!!! Might have to play bama anyways!Comment
