HG's College Hoops Thread

[HeeluvaGuy]

Most likely my last one for the day:

10:30 Omaha/CS Fullerton o153.5 -110
Omaha should be able to push the tempo in this one to get us up to 75 possessions or so. Defenses are bad here, and I'm expecting an endless parade to the foul line.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Went 2-2 yesterday. I had the pace right in all of the games but ran into some particularly bad scoring in the NIU (both teams season low in points per possession) and Detroit (season low in ppp) games.

6-10 (-4.49u)

[HeeluvaGuy]

7:00 Fairfield/Rider o140.5 -110
I have this game at 72+ possessions, which should get us over 140. I like that neither team relies heavily on the 3, so anything we get there will be a bonus.

[doubledime]

Good luck tonight

[stevebets90]

gl

[HeeluvaGuy]

Thanks guys. Looks like I beat the line move at least.

[doubledime]

Well done!!

[HeeluvaGuy]

Thanks. Survived 14-28 FT shooting from Rider thanks to a few more possessions than I thought we would need.

7-10 (-3.49u)

[HeeluvaGuy]

7:00 Niagara/Marist u147.5 -110
This is a game where the current season averages are misleading. Marist opened the season against Duke and Rhode Island, and both teams absolutely abused the Red Foxes. That led to some skewed pace and defensive stats for Marist. Niagara's possesssion stats are also slightly skewed due to an OT game against Hartford. Niagara is also averaging 6 more possessions per game this year than they did last year. I look for that stat to come down a bit. The result of all of this is that I see a game right around 70 possessions. At that pace these offenses would have to be more efficient than I think they're capable of, so I like the under.

[HeeluvaGuy]

1-0 Game finished with exactly 70 possessions. Niagara was 26/27 from the FT line, but these two shot poor enough that it didn't matter.

8-10 (-2.49u)

[doubledime]

Nice call

[HeeluvaGuy]

Working my way through the card. Here's the first:

9:00 Pacific/CS Fullerton o142.5 -110
Damon Stoudamire has Pacific playing fast enough this year that this game should see 75+ possessions. At that pace, these two can be below their average offensive efficiency and still go over 142. I particularly like how much these two foul and get to the line.

[HeeluvaGuy]

2:00 Morehead St/Purdue o140.5 -110
I see this one getting up to at least 72 possessions, which should provide plenty of cushion to get over 140. That Morehead St is a fouling machine, and Purdue is a pretty decent FT shooting team should help us get there.

[Louisvillekid1]

I like em both

[HeeluvaGuy]

Thanks kid. Not finished yet. Just keep getting interrupted. Best of luck today!

[HeeluvaGuy]

2:00 South Dakota/Nebraska o136
I get 70-72 possessions for this one, which should get us to 140+.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Probably the last one for today:

4:00 Buffalo/St Bonaventure o148 -110
I get at least 75 possessions for this one, which should get us there.

[HeeluvaGuy]

3-1 yesterday. The one that got away was the SD/Nebraska over, which had 76 points at half (o/u was 136) and a whopping 75 possessions. Unfortunately, SD set a season low in offensive efficiency and we missed the number by 2.

11-10 (+.51u)

[HeeluvaGuy]

Looks like one play today:

4:00 Jacksonville St/Samford u135 -110
Barring something unusual this game should be played at 65 possessions or less. At that pace I think this one stays under 135.

[doubledime]

3-1 yesterday. The one that got away was the SD/Nebraska over, which had 76 points at half (o/u was 136) and a whopping 75 possessions. Unfortunately, SD set a season low in offensive efficiency and we missed the number by 2.

11-10 (+.51u)

Well done again

[HeeluvaGuy]

0-1 today. I had the pace but was way off on the efficiency.

11-11 (-.59u)

[HeeluvaGuy]

Nothing today

[sportsfan9698]

give stetson +20 a look

[HeeluvaGuy]

give stetson +20 a look

I'm really just focusing on totals right now, but thanks for stopping by.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Two for today so far:

7:00 LaSalle/Villanova u149 -100
We should see 70 possesssions or less here, and at that pace this one should stay under 150.

8:00 NJIT/Minnesota o141 -110
I get 75+ possessions for this game. At that pace this should go over 141 even if NJIT struggles some to score.

[doubledime]

LaSa/Vil under just missed my Program Play criteria. I like it now.

[HeeluvaGuy]

LaSa/Vil under just missed my Program Play criteria. I like it now.

Down to 146 right now. Hoping that's a good sign.

[HeeluvaGuy]

7:00 St Bonaventure/Hofstra o155 -110
I get at least 73 possessions here, which should be enough to get us over 155. However, I think this one could get up to 75+ possessions. Hofstra's reliance on the 3 bothers me a little, but I also think we see quite a few free throws in this one.

[HeeluvaGuy]

2-1 tonight. Got really luck with a meaningless 3 to cover in the Minnesota game, and the loser was the one we beat the closing line by 6 points. Go figure.

13-12 (+.31u)

[HeeluvaGuy]

Probably no plays today because I just don't have time.

Best of luck with your wagers today.

[HeeluvaGuy]

7:30 Vanderbilt/MTSU o133 -105
I get a minimum of 65 possessions here. If that's where this one ends up this one will be close. But I believe we'll see closer to 68+. At that pace I like the over here. I'm not crazy about Vandy's reliance on the 3, but I think we'll see a decent number of free throws in this one to help the efficiency.

[Louisvillekid1]

Tend to agree

GL

[HeeluvaGuy]

0-1 yesterday. Bad pace and bad shooting. Not how you hit an over.

13-13 (.74u)

[HeeluvaGuy]

7:00 Wake Forest/UNC-Greensboro u158 -105
I'm expecting a sub-75 possession pace. Greensboro really likes to slow it down and is the 7th slowest team by possesssions per game. If they can limit some possessions, the under should hit comfortably. Couple of added bonuses here: under is 8-0 in last 8 at UNC-G, kenpom has it at 147 and Massey at 149.

[HeeluvaGuy]

I'll also point out that UNCG's season scoring average (73.6) is skewed by non-D-I opponents. Their average against D-I teams is just 66.3 ppg.