Happy New Year, Lkid
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Derrick Henry u87.5 Rush Yds / Ravens 1h -13.5 +500 0.5x (365)
Henry is basically priced for the full game here, so I have to jump at thisOpportunity, as Baltimore looks to clinch the 3 seed as 17.5 favs. Of course he can get this in the first half, but Lamar gonna do whatever he wants against a Team that packed it in. Also zappe / DTR whoever it is, will not be able to score much if at all. I def predict henry wont play the 4th but good chance not the 2h at all. I think Keaton Mitchell will plenty of 2h carries so looking for that line as well to evaluate.
This is not a lock to go heavy on obv, it’s still a divisional game. But they are gonna rest 2h and great chance this one is over early. Lamar may not even play much of the 3Q either. It could be 21-0 @ half or more. Begin a 5/1 parlay, it’s definitely worth 0.5x , just wouldn’t go more than 1x , never wanna get hurt on a parlay . $50 gets back $300 and I like it our chances.
Derrick Henry u87.5 Rush Yds / Ravens 1h -13.5 +500 0.5x (365)
Henry is basically priced for the full game here, so I have to jump at this
Opportunity, as Baltimore looks to clinch the 3 seed as 17.5 favs. Of course he can get this in the first half, but Lamar gonna do whatever he wants against a Team that packed it in. Also zappe / DTR whoever it is, will not be able to score much if at all. I def predict henry wont play the 4th but good chance not the 2h at all. I think Keaton Mitchell will plenty of 2h carries so looking for that line as well to evaluate.
This is not a lock to go heavy on obv, it’s still a divisional game. But they are gonna rest 2h and great chance this one is over early. Lamar may not even play much of the 3Q either. It could be 21-0 @ half or more. Begin a 5/1 parlay, it’s definitely worth 0.5x , just wouldn’t go more than 1x , never wanna get hurt on a parlay . $50 gets back $300 and I like it our chances.Comment -
Gardner Webb / Charlie South O152.5 1x
Charlie South Ml + O152.5 +238 0.2x
Fast break points / second chance points / fast paced game to start the day tomorrow. Buccs are even better than their numbers show offensively , as they played the 51st toughest schedule and believe it or not this only they 2nd home game vs D1 team and its January! It would be a perfect storm if either team could make a foul shot. Especially Charleston, because they are gonna be a lot tomorrow. If they shot even like 69% instead of a putrid 58.2% I’d be on them for a full unit. Garder Webb splits are crazy. They normally have one insane scoring half and one horrible half. It’s pretty wild actually. But just shows how streaky they are. This would be a bigger play if the bulldogs hadn’t been off since the 12/21, because of rust concern. But no defense being played in this game anyway.Comment -
Don’t sleep on these posts folks.
kid been here since 07 handing out get rich starter kitsComment -
Longwood -1.5 -112 (DK) 1x
Will try and write later .Comment -
In short , lancers get whatever they want on offense. Second chance points / points the paint & they gonna have more points down the charity strike.
Blue Hose live and die by the 3, and defending the perimeter is one of the things Longwood does well.Comment -
USC Upstate / Winthrop may the be the fastest paced game I ever handicapped in 20 years. The amount of possessions are gonna be absolutely insane. Eagles are walking layup in this game and will get plenty of points at the line with clock stopped.
I have to play the over , this could be nuts
O164.5 -112 (DK) 1x
I may add 1h tomorrow when it comes out , because could lose a minute or 2 because of blowout.
After not liking much, recently , I’m firing so far tomorrowComment -
Play #4
Troy -2 -108 (DK) 1x
-Short Road favs not typically my style but here’s the second one of the card. This is an underrated coaching matchup btw. But anyway, having played on the road against Houston / Oregon / @ Arky, legit 3 brutal environments (which is where 3 of their 4 losses have come) should have them well prepared for Appy st. I’m not saying Holmes convocation center is an easy place to play by any means, but being the day after new year , it should help.
Let’s get to on the court. Troy will dominate the offensive glass, there scheme includes crashing the O boards as a team. When you’re rebounding 38.9% of your shoots, good for 12th outta 364, and don’t have a guy averaging over 5.2 per game, well that’s telling enough. Appy st is currently 257th in defensive rebounding to give you idea of this mismatch. So all of Troy’s points are coming from the paint.
The downside to the Trojans Offense is they are 355th in turnovers @ a 23% clip, however let’s dive into that. They have played some of the highest turnovers forcing teams in the nation. The 3 we mentioned along with eastern Kentucky all ranked in the top 90 in that regard. The Mountaineers well that rank 294th! I’m thinking no more 11-12 turnovers tomorrow because of that.
On the d side, Troy forces a ton 20.8% good for 52nd and yeah you guessed it , Appy st is awful as well protecting the ball , ranked 312th @ 20.1%.
Mountaineers gonna struggle to score in this game. Troy will eventually grind them down, by scoring inside and getting easy buckets in transition off those turnovers. Not gonna be many fouls in this game, but good to know we ahoot 74.3% Va their 64.3% in this small spread matchup.Comment -
Elon / NC A&T u152.5 (DK) 1x
Definitely a contrast of styles here, but lots to like when it comes to this total. I’ll just keep it simple . Fast Break points will be hard to come by, as I expect turnovers to be at a minimum. Secondly, there won’t be many points from the foul line, unless it’s close late and some kind of extensive fouling comes. Aggies are 10-3 to the over and I think that plays a part to an inflated number. Interestingly enough Elon is 9-1 ATS , and this line is bumped a few points as well. I just think A&T is gonna struggle to score, and Elon isn’t explosive enough nor plays the style that would hang high 80’s low 90’s like many have against the Aggies. If there is one area that’s gonna be easy to Exploit it’s, the Phoenix scoring second change points with ease, but the flip side to that is the Aggies will be one and done. As I type this I’m realizing A&T TT near 74 is just as strong if not more. But I’m locked in on game and don’t want 2x here.Comment -
Some CLV on 4/5 so far, hopefully good sign lol. Still got a bunch to games to cap for tonight. So should be even more plays. We’ll see.Comment -
Why do I have to login every damn I leave this page on phone .
anyway play 6
Army / Colgate
1h u67.5 0.6x (365)
u143.5 0.2x (365)
u143.5 / Army +6 +242 (DK) 0.2x
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Not too often will people be excited bet an under featuring two defenses with ranks of 274 & 317, but I see a lot to like. First off they may be bad, but they never foul. I mean never. They rank 336 & 345 In opponents points from the line. That’s pretty wild. No fouls mean of course no points with clock stopped, so that baby will just be running. Army can score inside, and Colgate will hit plenty of threes. But they are extremely dependent on the 3 and maybe not playing since 12/22 , first game off break, could show some rust. On offense, neither team forces many turnover nor turns it over themselves very much at all. So that limits fast break points. Additionally, these squads can’t get an offensive rebound to save their lives. Which in turn , limits easy second chance points. Colgate at home should dictate the pace, which army won’t mind at all, it’s not like the knights play fast. Although thought their defenses possessions are pretty quick, but this is not your typical Raider team , you’ve seen last 3 years or so. They have been legit 23+ win team. There getting better and played a tough schedule , but just wanted to point that out. On a side not Colgate has beat them 9’in a row and Although that trend doesnt effect this game with roster turnover and army coach only in his second year, it could be used as extra motivation for the team. I mean I would use it as bulletin material. Also just wanted to point that out as well. Obv not the only angle im using in the parlay , I just feel 6 is too much.
Maybe the Raiders are on fire from 3, but they only shoot 33% and still get the 18th highest % of points from deep. So they let it fly.Comment -
I’m firing today , not because of action I just like a lot and there will be more just heads up if your tailing. Abnormal volume for me.
play #7
Kasparas Jakucionis O15.5 Pts -105 (365) 1xComment -
Just wanna make note, I make Charleston -7.2 , current line is 9.5. I don’t love the matchup on paper but if this gets to 10 -110 , I have to put lunch money on it.Comment -
I don’t understand how Marshall is favored tonight. Can’t figure it out. Something fishy here. This is not good matchup for them at all. I’ll pass because of gut feeling. Curious to see how it plays outComment -
Arky St -12 -108 (DK)
This team is a wagon right now. Coach Hodgson has obviously benefited a ton learning under Nate Oats next door over at Bama. This is a squad they could win out. They haven’t played since 12/21 and a trip that sneaky tough place to play in Virginia , is the only things that stop this from being a multiple unit play. On paper this is lights out , 20 point blowout. Can’t imagine they be In any let down spot , but it is first game off break. I think they ready to roll.
The thought crossed my mind, that maybe if the time off creates a slow start , I’ll add live and attack that way. But a unit good for now.Comment -
Wky / Liberty 1h u68.5 -108 (FD) 1xComment -
No Zona TT u72.5 -115 (DK) 2.6x Risk
No Zona TT u72.5 / Idaho St +3.5 +162 0.4x risk
I’m not sure I’ve seen a team 13 games in , who’ve played 13 worse defenses. Their offensive numbers are definitely skewed. On the Idaho has played tough against some very good teams. It doesn’t hurt that they’ve known their next opponent since not playing 12/18.
Just don’t worry about all that, I can’t find where Lumberjacks gonna get their points from. I don’t see an advantage in any category, these are using numbers and matchups reports vs 2 totally different strength of schedules. I like this a lot.Comment -
PC switched to zone outta the half which they never play and longwood must of never practiced against zone. 4 points in first 8 min + of 2h .Comment -
Full swing on the nut sack today Kid
Track meet at Winthrop NEXTComment -
JMU / Arky St / Flo Gulf Coast / East Ky ML par +114 1x
Don’t bet these much, but I been over this, and decided had to play itComment -
Welp Eastern KY OT , either gonna be
9-5 +5.46x
Or
8-6 +3.31x
WellSeeComment -
Forgot about KJ prop also pending
early foul Trouble really hurt this one, maybe big 2h but a lot of ask after only 7 1h minutes.Last edited by Louisvillekid1; 01-02-25, 10:55 PM.Comment -
KJ legacy cash
10-5 +6.46xComment -
Merrimack Ml -400 is very a strong Dejucer for today. Or ml parlay leg.
3rd str8 roady for Fairfield, and they just are one of the worst teams in the county , bottom line. Can’t beat a team in top 200, imo. Warriors have played a much a tougher schedule traveling all over, this is only their 2nd home game as they are very prepared from that to start league play. ( I took Malik Beasley NBA so used this with his 15+ pts @ +103 for 0.6x) they are most likely gonna win by Double Digits here. But I can’t justify a play after being late to the party and already moving 1-2 points.
One warning part if your watching this game, is the stags are gonna get second chance points. To a point it’ll be we’re dumb shots late in the shot clock , are being bailed out with Offensive Boards. But its there best and only way to score here.
However there is an angle to look out for. The Warriors haven’t played since 12/19. Which is potential for a slow start. If at any point this live line gets -6 or better it’s 0.6x add .
I’ve been looking for MAAC future line, last week or so, haven’t found one. Was hoping to get Merrimack at even money or better but with it just starting and then being 5-8 overall , probably would be +200 ish.
Hope all this makes sense, game is early tip @ 3 , here on the east coastComment -
Cent Conn St 1h -2.5 -120 0.6x (DK)
Cent Conn St 1h -3 -110 0.6x (365)
Cent Conn St -5.5 -112 (DK) 0.6x
You can split the game play 0.3x each if you want to save juice, 365 is -6 -105, but risk a push. My units always to win, unless it’s plus money play then it’s risk, btw.Comment -
Le Moyne / LIU O144.5 -110 (365) 2.2 to win 2I think this pace is gonna be much faster than the numbers that are being used to set this total. I make this 152. So gotta go 2x. Let’s talk about why.
Let’s look at LIU’s 18 sec avg offensive possession that ranks 244. First off if you know Rod Strickland , he wants to run. Last year they were at 17.2 (133th) year before that they were at 16.0 (28th). I wanna type out the defensive pace rankings they played:
265
212
306
26
331
143
294
51
291
257
150
343
290
look that’s some big numbers ( meaning the higher the number the slowest ,’outta 366, incase didn’t know) so of course their numbers are gonna show much slower than want they want. The Dolphins run, and I just think Coach Strickland is gonna open it up.
Another key to this wager, is the amount these two team foul. LIU is ridiculous 363/366 , and their opponents score 27.3%!!!! Welp, Le Moyne scores 21% of their points formThe line be use they don’t shoot the 3 and everything is attacking inside. On the other side Le Moyne fouls a ton as well. They rank 103 as their opponents get 20.6% of they points fromThe charity strike. They just all adds up to big chunk of points being scored with the clock stopped. They both shoot 70% + as a team.
Also, both teams are loose with the ball, grading out in the lower 77th percentile of turnovers. I’mNot sure about live ball, but when you turnover it this much that equals easy fast break points going the other way.
Last year they averaged 150.5 per game in their 2 matchups .
So even though these are 2 of the lowest ranked offenses in the country, ( I know it sounds crazy as they rank 337 & 349 , lower 92nd percentile) this one is all about volume, not efficiency.Comment -
Alright went a lil crazy , really dug into Xavier game. In short yes I strong lean Xavier but prefer G Town TT u74.5 / 73.5 is playable too.
But Marcus Foster is straight missed priced In this game.
9.5 -125 (365
10.5 -105 ( Dk , Fd)
15+ (+350 365)
Xavier is the 6th best 3 point shooting team in the county , and he’s a big reason 22-47 (46.8%) . 27 of those 47 attempts have came In the last 5 games.
Yes he averages just over 9 but the furman transfer has really settled in here as of late. And that’s when Musketeers schedule has been loaded with tough competition.
Last 5 games
146 (52 D) Seton Hall 14 pts 2-4 from 3
9 (10 D) Marquette 16 pts 3-7 from 3
13 (94 D) UConn 15 pts 3-6 from 3
23 (5 D) Cincy 6 pts 2-4 from 3
348 (358 D) Morgan St 18 pts 4-6 from 3
Yeah Morgan st is awful and doesn’t fit with the rest of those teams , who have legit defenses. But that’s were he found his confidence and settled in as a big part of this team. He wasn’t shooting nearly as much in the first 8-9
Games of the season, as I layed out with all those attempts in last 5. His line is based of season numbers and not he’s newly found Aggression, imo.
Xavier’s biggest edge here is the 3 ball , as Hoyas defend the paint well. Big reason why Musketeers shoot it so
Well from deep, is they have assists on 65% of their FG’s which is 6/363 and pretty insane how they find the open shooter.
I was gonna play 3 3’s @ +$ but he can score in other ways too, so went points . He prob gonna need 2+ threes to get this , use that how you will.
I got carried away and kept clicking buttons lol .
I played
O9.5 -125 to win 1 (365)
010.5 -105 to win 1 (dk)
15+ (+350 @ 365 , risk 0.6x ) prob went to heavy here but feel like I’m cashing That 9.5 atleast, so I gambled .
I also bet g town u74.5 -125 (365) 0.75/0.6x
I’m not a prop specialist , just heads up, but this one just jumps
Off the page, really like how’s he’s been doing this Vs top teams , including two top 10 defenses. (Realize he didn’t get it vs Cincy but still shot 2-4 from 3 and g town nowhere near Cincy)
G town is ranked as the 45th defense and middle of the pack in 3 point defense , but remember they played one of the weakest schedules in the country (346/366)Comment -
Welp warriors rolling, so much for the hope of slow start ,Comment -
Fairfield has 14 o boards to their 2 and still down by 20+, lol it literally only way they can score , like spoke on before.Comment
