Dexter's 2011-2012 NBA

[Dexter]

So the NBA is definitely my worst sport, but i am determined more then ever to make a profit this season. Like baseball, i was working on a referee auto-bet system but i am not going to be able to continue with it as my company has blocked all gambling sites. There is just no way i can get home from work, then scramble to look up the referees. Its not as easy as baseball, where you just look up the home plate ump as the NBA has several ref's that need to all be factored in. So the plan this year is to play 1-3 games per day, and go much more conservative. I will use my normal money management system of pressing when i'm hot, and scaling back when cold. Accepting losing weeks is what makes you survive as a long term gambler, and if there is one thing you should ever take away from my threads, its that piece of advice.

A1: Fade any team playing their 4th game in 5 nights, so long as the other team is on at least 1 day's rest. 3u per play from Dec to Jan 31. 5u per play from February 1st till season end.

A2: Fade any team playing 3 days in a row, so long as the other team is playing with at least 1 days test. 2u per play minimum.

A3: Fade any team playing back to back in Denver or Utah. The Jazz/Nuggets must be playing with at least 1 days rest. 3u per play minimum.

[lyon804]

GL Dexter!!

[Dexter]

GL Dexter!!

There he is. Gonna have a thread for us?

[Goat Milk]

what was the percent of a3 last season?

[suicidekings]

I feel like this season is going to be a good one.

[Dexter]

what was the percent of a3 last season?

56%

[Love The Action]

FYI...you can usually get ref info by noon everyday off nba.com. That site should not be blocked. As long as you know what refs to look for and why, I think you should still be able to try or test your proposed ref system.

Good luck this season Dex

[Dexter]

FYI...you can usually get ref info by noon everyday off nba.com. That site should not be blocked. As long as you know what refs to look for and why, I think you should still be able to try or test your proposed ref system.

Good luck this season Dex

i didnt know that - to be honest, its a lot of work to backtest. ive gotten through like 20 refs so far, and i dont really feel like looking this stuff up every day on top of capping the games. maybe im just feeling lazy today but i may just pass on this.

[GTS925]

I'm glad you didn't go tout. Let's get this!

[Goat Milk]

Dexter,

if you have this information let me know. the ats record of teams in their next game that had covered the spread against the heat in their previous game.

[Dexter]

Dexter,

if you have this information let me know. the ats record of teams in their next game that had covered the spread against the heat in their previous game.

nope....clear your inbox

[mlb]

gl dex .. if anyone on this whole damn site can do it its you ... wish u the best of luck as always .. dont know how you have the time and drive to have a season long with every sport and stay up with it ... i was hoping basketball was going to be my sport to finally get one going but im taking my 4th CPA test in january and that takes up way too much of my time

looking forward to your plays

[Dexter]

gl dex .. if anyone on this whole damn site can do it its you ... wish u the best of luck as always .. dont know how you have the time and drive to have a season long with every sport and stay up with it ... i was hoping basketball was going to be my sport to finally get one going but im taking my 4th CPA test in january and that takes up way too much of my time

looking forward to your plays

did all that stuff years ago....good luck with the cpa. the only certification i had was my series 7, but i am not with a broker dealer anymore so it expired.

[mlb]

did all that stuff years ago....good luck with the cpa. the only certification i had was my series 7, but i am not with a broker dealer anymore so it expired.

Nice nice... still impressive!

Thanks. I started in may and past the first 3 and with time restriction conflicts I had to force number 4 in less then 3 weeks and failed by 3 points. Didn't place a single bet in that time, now starting the process for #4 again and taking it in early January

[Dexter]

Sunday 12/25:

(1u) Heat -3

[mlb]

Sunday 12/25: (1u) Heat -3

good luck.... i like it

[Hoopster17]

GL on the season Dex

[ragiche]

Best of Luck this season my friend.

[paco]

GL to a successful season Dexter.

Brother Sam will be looking out for you.

[tullamore21]

Good Luck, Dex!

[Dexter]

Atlantic Division:

1) Celtics - 44
2) Knicks - 39
3) Sixers - 34
4) Nets - 27
5) Raptors - 18

-As much as i wanted to take the knicks over boston, i dont see it without a true point guard to run this offense. toney douglas is a backup filling the role of starter till the knicks make a move. rondo is obviously the young star on boston that should be able to assist the old timers to one more run (not an an nba title though)...Philly hasnt changed much, so that will be a team i will look to back early in the season. deron williams can do so much with that nets team, and andrea bargani is simply a scorer and nothing more for the raptors. neither of those teams will sniff the playoffs. From a betting perspective, the celtics and sixers will be teams i will likely back early on as the season plays out.

[Dexter]

Central Division:

1) Bulls - 50
2) Pacers - 35
3) Bucks - 32
4) Pistons - 25
5) Cavs - 15

No major change is happening in this division, as the Bulls are set up to dominate the Central for the next few years. Boozer should be even better year 2 with Rose, and their depth will carry them to the Eastern Conference Finals. The Bucks and Pacers are 2 teams with mostly the same core players returning, so i will look to back them early in the season. I'm a big fan of Ramon Sessions, so a trade to a team like the Knicks makes a ton of sense with Irving running the show. Sorry Goat, I tried to look for reasons that the Pistons will make the playoffs - its not happening unless Gordon just goes into one of those hot streaks for a 50 game stretch.

[Love The Action]

[Dexter]

SouthEast Division:

1) Heat - 48
2) Wizards - 40
3) Magic - 39
4) Hawks - 35
5) Bobcats - 17

The Heat added Battier and that will make their defense even more ridiculous then what it was. I really like Wizards to make the playoffs this year with a now healthy John Wall. He will be a top 10 player in the league within the next year or 2. Mcgee, Blatche both have all star potential and Wall will make them even better then what they naturally are. Howard will obviously win games for the Magic while he is there, but he'll be gone thus ending the Magic's chances of competing in this division. The Hawks should be about what they usually are - a good, but not great team. Everyone will beat up on the Bobcats.

[Dexter]

Northwest Division:

1) Thunder - 46
2) Blazers - 43
3) Jazz - 35
4) Nuggets - 30
5) Wolves - 18

The Thunder and Blazers should have a pretty good battle for the division, but OKC is set up with a young/deep versatile team. Sounds like Oden is done, and Roy has retired as well, but Crawford will play a big role off the bench for Portland. They have length and defenders around the basket - that includes Gerald Wallace who is a great help defender. The Nuggets are a mess with a bunch of their players in China and Love can do so much with that supporting cast. From a fantasy perspective, i will be looking to back the Blazers a lot as i usually do. Playing in the thin air of Utah and Denver should be even more difficult this year with the crammed schedule.

[Dexter]

Ron Artest's name has been legally changed to Metta World Peace.

[suicidekings]

Ron Artest's name has been legally changed to Metta World Peace.

I'm trying to think of a crazier pro athlete and I can't... Gotta love guys that don't care about following conventional thinking.

[Dexter]

I'm trying to think of a crazier pro athlete and I can't... Gotta love guys that don't care about following conventional thinking.

[Goat Milk]

Starbury basketball shoes

purchased them about 5 year ago for $8 at steve and barry's

lol such garbage

[demens]

Should be an interesting season with this condensed schedule. Wonder how the books will cap these 3 nighters we'll have this year.

[demens]

A1: Fade any team playing their 4th game in 5 nights, so long as the other team is on at least 1 day's rest. 3u per play from Dec to Jan 31. 5u per play from February 1st till season end.

A2: Fade any team playing 3 days in a row, so long as the other team is playing with at least 1 days test. 2u per play minimum.

Haven't done any capping or basketball thinking for that matter in quite a while. I had some similar ideas to those above as to how i'm going to approach this season. But i'm having 2nd thoughts after running some queries in the database. I think books will be ready for these tricks and feed us some crappy lines in these situations.

A1: Is a fairly winning formula pretty much any given year. Only 2 losing seasons out of the last 12. But...the 13th season, the previous lockout season in 1998, produced a 56% win% for the "tired" team. Another interesting point is that the average lines in 98 for those games were the 2nd lowest out of the 13 years.

A2: Is an extreme situation that can only be compared to 1998. And back then, teams playing their 3rd game in 3 days had a 57% win%.

Just some things to keep in mind.

[Dexter]

Pacific Division:

1) Lakers - 43
2) Clippers - 40
3) Warriors - 35
4) Suns - 28
5) Kings - 22

I wouldnt be surprised to see the Lakers not win the division, but the Clippers will need time to mesh. Fisher as the starting PG is laughable and i would assume the Lakers find someone at some point. Losing Kaman is a big deal for the Clippers, as Jordan is the type of young player that i can see in foul trouble all the time. The Suns run is officially over, as Nash will not be able to run that team up and down the court on a consistent basis at his age. Tyreke Evans is a stud, and Cousins should blossom in the next year or 2 . What better coach for Curry/Ellis then former PG Mark Jackson. You know i will be all over the Warriors as usual - and i most definitely will be fading the Clippers early on as they mesh. Yes, the Warriors will be a play for me on opening day, but i'm sure that will go up to LAC -3 at some point.

[Dexter]

A1: Is a fairly winning formula pretty much any given year. Only 2 losing seasons out of the last 12. But...the 13th season, the previous lockout season in 1998, produced a 56% win% for the "tired" team. Another interesting point is that the average lines in 98 for those games were the 2nd lowest out of the 13 years.

A2: Is an extreme situation that can only be compared to 1998. And back then, teams playing their 3rd game in 3 days had a 57% win%.

Just some things to keep in mind.

not sure what you mean by the 2nd lowest?

57% win % ATS or straight up? yeah, i havent looked at the schedule in depth, but i bet it will be rare for the team i'm looking to back to be on 1 days rest.

[demens]

not sure what you mean by the 2nd lowest?

57% win % ATS or straight up? yeah, i havent looked at the schedule in depth, but i bet it will be rare for the team i'm looking to back to be on 1 days rest.

I used the criteria you described. Fade team (4th-in-5 or b2b2b) vs team with at least 1 day of rest. The % was for ATS, SU the "tired" team do lose more often, i just think the books give them favorable lines.

By 2nd lowest i meant favorable to the "tired" team so its easier to cover.

I guess we'll see as the season goes on. I'm thinking we'll know early on if thats what the books will be doing as these lines should be easy to spot.

[Dexter]

Southwest Division:

1) Mavs - 48
2) Spurs - 41
3) Grizzlies - 39
4) Hornets - 34
5) Rockets - 32

What an unbelievable divison - put any of these teams in the East, and they make the playoffs. Dallas should easily surpass the Spurs for the division this time around - the Odom trade was a joke. The Spurs are old, but they have the best coach in the game so they'll be there as usual. Love the talent on the Grizzlies, and having Gay back will make them even better. If Mayo can return to his 2008-2009 form, this team can be a nightmare come playoff time for any team. Lowry/Martin are a legit backcourt, and Scola is a solid PF down low. The Hornets got a lot back for Paul, and i think they will still be a very good team. Gordon is a star on the rise, and they should dominate the glass with Kaman/Okafor. Jack is an underrated PG who should flourish now that he has the job all to himself. Ariza is the wildcard for this team.