SuicideKings 2011-12 NBA Thread

**Pauulzcappin** · 03-04-12, 04:42 PM

Do you like anything for the late games, SK?

I like a few myself.

**suicidekings** · 03-04-12, 04:55 PM

Originally posted by Pauulzcappin

Do you like anything for the late games, SK? I like a few myself.

Houston for sure. The Kings +6 & ML seems too good to be true, but also hard to resist. I think the Spurs line is very tough to bet at -6.5 but is most likely a very strong play with what appears to be a lot of changeover in the Nuggets lineup for the day, with Nene and Fernandez returning and Gallinari coming back tomorrow. I think the Nuggets will be dysfunctional tonight.

**Pauulzcappin** · 03-04-12, 04:58 PM

I like the Rockets and Spurs. Kings sound good but Phoenix has been playing well and building confidence, not so sure about that.

Also think there's good value on Philly ML. Card looks really good tonight.

**suicidekings** · 03-04-12, 05:08 PM

It's tough to bet the Sixers against the Bulls. They really are outclassed in many ways and the Bulls are one of the few teams in the league that can resist the Sixers tempo game effectively, with Noah/Gibson/Deng taking away rebounds and their superior perimeter defense pushing the Sixers guards off their spots. The Bulls are the #1 team in the league in disrupting opponents' 3 point shooting by a fair margin, and 3 point shooting is so important to the Sixers.

I'm not sold on playing the Bulls -4, but I see too much of a mismatch to play the Sixers with any degree of confidence. Another game that might offer a huge opportunity on the Bulls live if the Sixers come out of the gates throwing big punches.

**Pauulzcappin** · 03-04-12, 05:39 PM

Metta World Peace is playing like Ron Artest tonight.

**demens** · 03-04-12, 05:55 PM

I was just about to say. Lakers big man having an ok game, Artest is the reason they are up right now, probably his best game this season. That and Lakers defense not letting the Heat run too much.

**suicidekings** · 03-04-12, 05:59 PM

Originally posted by Pauulzcappin

Metta World Peace is playing like Ron Artest tonight.

**suicidekings** · 03-04-12, 06:18 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

3/4

Celtics ML (-108) x1
Lakers ML (+140) x3

2-0 (+5.2u)
YTD: 63-64-2 (+34.28u)

Rockets -2 (-107) x1

**suicidekings** · 03-04-12, 07:51 PM

LIVE (38-34 Sixers): Bulls ML (-112) x1

**suicidekings** · 03-04-12, 09:57 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

3/4

Celtics ML (-108) x1
Lakers ML (+140) x3
Rockets -2 (-107) x1
Bulls ML (-112) x1

3/4: 2-2 (+5.13u)
YTD: 63-66-2 (+34.21u)

**No coincidences** · 03-04-12, 09:59 PM

I had the Rockets too. Bunch of fvcking chokers. Up 103-100 with 1:34 left in OT and didn't score again thanks to Kevin Martin's broke jumper in the clutch.

**Pauulzcappin** · 03-04-12, 10:08 PM

Kevin Martin is an idiot.

**suicidekings** · 03-04-12, 11:57 PM

The thing about the Rockets is, they have the talent on the team to do very well, but lack the senior leadership good teams need to close out tight games. Martin just isn't that type of player, and overall, we're talking about a very young team with a rookie coach. Kind of an annoying loss, but the Rockets just couldn't pull away from the Clippers despite several opportunities. No big deal.

**suicidekings** · 03-06-12, 02:20 AM

3/6

Mavericks -2.5 (-108) x5

I think the market perception of this matchup is not correct. IMO, the value is all on the Mavs, and they should cover this line comfortably. This line will not stay at -2.5.

**No coincidences** · 03-06-12, 02:22 AM

Originally posted by suicidekings

3/6

Mavericks -2.5 (-108) x5

I think the market perception of this matchup is not correct. IMO, the value is all on the Mavs, and they should cover this line comfortably. This line will not stay at -2.5.

I'm frankly perplexed by this line. Bookmaker opened at 4.5 and it is now 2.5 at most shops. Why?

**suicidekings** · 03-06-12, 03:12 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

I'm frankly perplexed by this line. Bookmaker opened at 4.5 and it is now 2.5 at most shops. Why?

Early action on a line means NOTHING, out of context. How do you determine if the line is getting genuine action or just being deflated on the low limits to get hit the other way? It's a different story when you have 24 hours of activity to reflect on and you're 60 minutes from tip-off. That move from -4.5 to -3/-2.5 happened in a matter of 90 minutes. It's like watching the first 8 minutes of a game and being sure of who's going to win based on who starts fast.

**suicidekings** · 03-06-12, 11:04 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

3/6

Mavericks -2.5 (-108) x5

3/6: 1-0 (+5.0u)
YTD: 64-66-2 (+39.21u)

**demens** · 03-06-12, 11:13 PM

So lots games tomorrow. Lots of overprices favs imo. How do you like 2 of your favs this year for tomorrow, Kings and Jazz. I wanted to jump on the Jazz but -7 with their starting PG possibly out is kind of scary. Good spot though, Bobcats pretty terrible on b2b and should be a big let down after a huge win.

**hawley** · 03-06-12, 11:18 PM

Demons does Harris being out really worry you?

Watson and Burks both have been pretty good this year and I don't rate Harris at all.

**alamo** · 03-06-12, 11:24 PM

Great call on the Mavs SK.

**demens** · 03-06-12, 11:24 PM

It wouldn't worry me if the line was a bit more down to earth. I know Harris isn't having much of a season and Jazz got good backups for him, but Jazz on the road without their starting PG and -7 is a little discomforting.

I though Harris was playing better since the Allstar game anyway. I think i'll make a small play on them but hope line goes down to around 5 (if harris is confirmed out).

**hawley** · 03-06-12, 11:27 PM

Laying 7 on the Jazz on the road is a scary proposition in itself but they should have far too much inside for the Bobcats.

**suicidekings** · 03-06-12, 11:31 PM

Originally posted by demens

So lots games tomorrow. Lots of overprices favs imo.

This sums up Wednesday's card nicely. Four road faves laying -7 or more is crazy, especially when two of those teams are 4-13 (Jazz) and 6-12 (Lakers) away from home... Any way you look at it, playing the Lakers & Jazz mean betting bad lines here. Not worth it, IMO.

I could see maybe 1-2 small plays, but it's a tough card. I think the revitalized Nuggets smash the Cavs tomorrow, and the Warriors finally get a W against the Grizz.

**MidgetTossers** · 03-06-12, 11:39 PM

nice work SK

**parlayin** · 03-06-12, 11:43 PM

great call, Kings

**No coincidences** · 03-07-12, 12:28 AM

Originally posted by suicidekings

Early action on a line means NOTHING, out of context. How do you determine if the line is getting genuine action or just being deflated on the low limits to get hit the other way? It's a different story when you have 24 hours of activity to reflect on and you're 60 minutes from tip-off. That move from -4.5 to -3/-2.5 happened in a matter of 90 minutes. It's like watching the first 8 minutes of a game and being sure of who's going to win based on who starts fast.

Mavs were hit a little late, but it only moved back to -2.5 at close. Just weird.

I disagree that early action on a line means nothing. Wholeheartedly.

**suicidekings** · 03-07-12, 12:57 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Mavs were hit a little late, but it only moved back to -2.5 at close. Just weird. I disagree that early action on a line means nothing. Wholeheartedly.

It was the "out of context" part that was relevant in that statement. What did the 2.5 point deflation of the Knicks line mean today? I'm pretty sure the answer is "nothing".

**No coincidences** · 03-07-12, 01:01 AM

Originally posted by suicidekings

It was the "out of context" part that was relevant in that statement. What did the 2.5 point deflation of the Knicks line mean today? I'm pretty sure the answer is "nothing".

So the books were just conceding the game? Something or someone had to move it from -4.5 to -2.

**suicidekings** · 03-07-12, 01:24 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

So the books were just conceding the game? Something or someone had to move it from -4.5 to -2.

And how much money do you think that early shift from -4.5 to -2.5 (played at low-limits) represents as a percentage of the total money wagered on this game? I would guess it's a very small fraction.

So why is it so important?

**suicidekings** · 03-07-12, 11:42 AM

3/7

Celtics +7 (-110) x2
Celtics ML (+265) x1

Gotta love that steam..

**No coincidences** · 03-07-12, 11:46 AM

Originally posted by suicidekings

And how much money do you think that early shift from -4.5 to -2.5 (played at low-limits) represents as a percentage of the total money wagered on this game? I would guess it's a very small fraction.

So why is it so important?

It's important because books are making corrections to the line based both on where money's coming in and for the sake of getting the line in a more proper place.

**SparJMU** · 03-07-12, 11:47 AM

Do you think last night's OT game against Milwaukee will hurt them? The big four played roughly 40 minutes a piece.

**suicidekings** · 03-07-12, 11:58 AM

Originally posted by SparJMU

Do you think last night's OT game against Milwaukee will hurt them? The big four played roughly 40 minutes a piece.

I think the gravity of this game is not lost on either team. Giving Boston +7, even on a back to back is just wrong in a division rivalry game. Boston does a lot of the same things Chicago does on the defensive end, and that style of play is disruptive to the Sixers style of play. The B2B is not an optimal situation, but when all is said and done, Boston wins this division and the Sixers early success was performance above their true level. I would take Boston every time in this matchup at this price, B2B or not.

**demens** · 03-07-12, 11:58 AM

Crap, that thing sailed past me real quick. I was ok with -6.

**No coincidences** · 03-07-12, 12:00 PM

Originally posted by demens

Crap, that thing sailed past me real quick. I was ok with -6.

Agree. I almost locked it in at -5.5 last night -- didn't think it'd even reach 6, let alone 7.