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Wallco NBA Chase 110
2011-12 System to date: 18-0 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +18.00 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 1 (-26.99 units)
(1/21/12):
#18 N.Y. Knicks (+2½) (C) - Loss
v1 Plays
(A) 13-6
(B) 2-4
(C) 2-2
(D) 1-0
V2 Plays
In production
There are no system plays for (1/22/12):
#18 Resumes (D) on 1/24/12
We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a zero point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day, if the lines change, but it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from my post. On occasion, we will have plays that go head-head. The system will grade ALL bets, regardless of opponents, how you wish to play these games is your choice.Comment -
No. The only thing you can buy in Vegas is the hook or half point. However, you can play 5, 5.5 and 6 point teasers. I have used this strategy the past few years. The risk is higher but the added points have put me in the win column more often. Especially when everyone has lost a JM system bet by a point and he claims a victory because some obscure book had it briefly listed on a certain pointspread. The thing I like about Vegas is you strictly deal in cash and there is no record of your transaction unless you hit a parlay with 300-1 odds. A friend of mine won $45,000 on a $200 dollar 8 team parlay and walked up to the window and collected it all in $100 dollar bills and never had to sign anything or pay for a payout.Comment -
Question for experienced bettors:
Do you think that there will be a lot of money on Knicks on the next game? If so, we should place our bet EARLY since as the day goes, more and more money will be laid on them so the line will get worse and worse?Comment -
Thought I'd post this. Isn't it funny how Morrison touts his services when he has temporary success.
James,
Good job on winning yet again with Indiana on Friday to keep our
winning record PERFECT so far this NBA season! I have no doubt
that we will remain perfect for the rest of the year!
Now, before we get to today's bets, I just want to mention to you
that my Sports Picks Buffet program has been on a tearing winning
run ever since the NBA season started!
Yesterday, we banked in again with another massive winning day.
The NBA picks in my Sports Picks Buffet program have been hitting
winners at a record rate since the start of the season! Every day
you're not betting with my Sports Picks Buffet, you're losing out
on money! Get in on the action now at: [IMG]chrome://litmus-ff/skin/small/lvl2.png[/IMG]http://www.SportsPicksBuffet.com
Now, go to the link below to see today's NBA system bet:
[IMG]chrome://litmus-ff/skin/small/lvl2.png[/IMG]http://www.sportsbettingchamp.com/476381
This page shows the bet(s) that you will need to place. The team
on top is the team you need to bet for. The team on bottom is the
team they're playing against. The letter in bracket is the bet type.
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JM January 22
V1 TORONTO +12.5 @ LA Clippers (A)
All official plays are posted with 3 points bought. ML will not be taken on favorites greater than -3.Last edited by thelimit0310; 01-22-12, 12:26 PM.Comment -
Hm! JM send Toronto as a B betComment -
Toronto is NOT a B, they played Portland at home last game and lost.Comment -
Wallco Those are some awesome results! In it's most simplistic form, it's not even really a chase anymore. Rather, its flat betting with more weight put on the more effective games. It really is thinking out of the standard box. The 7/5 really works well with Chase -110 as the A bets perform very well for the system most season, so assigning the most effective bet level with the bigger gain is a great idea! And seeing as you turned the 7 year test of Chase -110 from a little over +200 units to over +900 units, the results speak for themselves!
I wanted to see if JM would respond similarly to the 7/5 method, so I ran a few quick tests for both this current year and last year using the method in various different ways. I figured the results would be similar as JM has about a 60% win rate on A bets, heres what I got: (should be noted this is fast math as well, there may be some discrepancy, but it wont take away from the message)
Current Season (11-12):
5/7 on B/C bets - +73 units
7/5 on B/C bets - +83 units
5/7 on A/B bets - +76 units
7/5 on A/B bets - +84 units
Not much of a difference between the bet levels thus far. You could bet either A and B or B and C and really not feel the difference. Playing 7/5 on A/B is the victor here by a unit, but this does not include the 2 series that lost unofficially. And because in playing the B/C method we would have never played those 2 losses, the 7/5 on B/C is most likely the true victor thus far.
2010-2011 Season:
5/7 on B/C bets - +245 units
7/5 on B/C bets - +293 units
5/7 on A/B bets - +333 units
7/5 on A/B bets - +361 units
Last year the winner was clear, playing 7/5 on the A/B bets, stopping at B bet loss, was the victor here. The only thing I can think of that could change this outcome is playing the games at -110. There could be more losses playing from the A bet than playing from the official B bet. The 2 unofficial losses suffered earlier this season are proof of that. Even so, it performed at 100 units over playing 5/7 on B/C, the way originally proposed. I'll have to look more into this and go into earlier seasons to really see it's performance. But I believe either 7/5 on A/B or more likely B/C is the best way to go. If you have any input I'd like to hear it!Last edited by thelimit0310; 01-22-12, 01:15 PM.Comment -
For those of you asking about 5/7 and 7/5, it really isn't anything to worry about at the moment. 5/7 was a money management method I started for JM, and Wallco came up with the idea to flip it to 7/5 if the system is more of an A bet winner like Chase -110. The details are currently being hammered out and me and Wallco have done some good work together thus far on the subject. But everyone should just keep playing the way they have been until the method has been explored fully. Thanks for your interest!Comment -
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I really do like the 7/5 or 5/7 system. I can never stick to chase systems because a few losses would put you in the red and for what 1 unit? It will be interesting to see how this shapes up. Thanks in advance.Comment -
Thelimit
What do u think us the best method to bet if u use a labby, is it to start at the A bet lever or still bet only B/C??Comment -
knugen If your labbying just play all 3 bet levels. No reason to skip out on anything when using a labby.
peeiempee Thanks! Yes that is the main fault of a chase system and why I have refused to play any system as a chase until this point. The 5 and 7 method is practically flawless in that it really isn't about whether or not you will have a winning season like it is in a chase, but rather how much your going to win by! Losses cost the same as a chasing loss, the only difference is the wins are 5-7 times bigger than in a standard chase, it's beautiful and I hope it continues to stand up to scrutiny so it can be officially introduced as a great money management method next season!
Maxi_EV I think it would be a good idea to eliminate the M/L filter in Chase -110 if using the 7/5 method. It could cause some extra losses but it could also prevent BIG losses from happening. Keeping the M/L filter in the system would screw with the unit amounts because the potential for a HUGE loss would exist. This is something I hope Wallco investigates, it is up to him!Comment -
Not much action today so I put together the results of the Chase 101 to the best of my ability using the 7/5. I will not be going back to double check, so if Wallco or whoever sees any discrepency please defer to their expertise.
2011-2012
A bet Wins: 14
A bet Losses: 6
B bet Wins: 2
B bet Losses: 4
Net +39.8 using 7/5
Assume all spreads are -110 and not playing the ML.
This makes sense since teams will be more aggressive trying not to drop 4 in a row. As a culture 3 is usually our key number...3 strikes, 3 times the charm, 3 wishes,Comment -
Finding this a great read tonight, am I right then if I back just A and B bets that wallco advises (or should they be thelimits one, or even both), if it is an A bet I back it with 7 units and if it is a B bet then I back it with 5 units. BUT it's a no bet if it's a M/L bet? I hope I've got my head round this!
Cheers lads for the usual great thread.Comment -
Awesome research guysDO WORK + KROW OD
do work! do work! do work! do work!
od krow! od krow! od krow! od krow!
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I have a question... not just for you, but for everyone involved in this discussion... Why are you testing it with 7/5? Why not 1.4/1 units instead? Or 70/50? I mean, yea 39.8 units looks great so far using 7/5... but if you use 70/50 it would be +398 units, or if you used 1.4/1, it would be approximate +7.9 units. Of course the more you bet, the more units you will make. Basically, if these are the only bets you are making, 7/5 might as well be 1.4/1 unit increments instead of 7/5. Do I make sense? You can make your unit amount whatever you want, but if that is your standard wager, you might as well make the bet a 1 unit wager and just raise your unit amount if you would like. Seems like the validity of the backtesting would be better. For instance, if you backtest all the chase110 bets using 5 units per bet instead of 1, of course the total profit would be 5 times higher. I know im rambling and maybe making no sense.. .but just a thought I had..Comment -
do u still buy 3 points with this new betting strategy?Comment -
call it 1,4/1 if u want.only the ratio is importantComment -
Bugs Essentially it would be 7 units on A and net 5 units on B. The reverse is true when playing 5/7. Either way at -110 that would be a total to win 12.70(12.50 with 5/7) units on the B bet.
dlunc Using 1.4 and 1 would result in the system not churning out as many units as even a standard chase. The amount is too low. 5/7 is used as the equilibrium point. A loss at 5/7 is equal to a standard chase loss yet at the same time is high enough to exponentially increase unit gross. You can go higher or you can just adjust your unit amount so that you win more money per unit and stay at this "equilibrium" point.
Nino7 DO NOT buy points, losses will be much higher and will offset the profits.Last edited by thelimit0310; 01-22-12, 03:20 PM.Comment -
Guys, all the info you will need to use this method will be released when it's finished. I do not recommend you start using this method right now as it is NOT finished. I will try to get all the info and the final verdict out asap and definitely before the end of the season so that you all can take it with you into the following seasons. But for the time being I would recommend just playing the season how you have been!Comment -
I am not saying anyone is wrong here. In fact I might be the one who is wrong, I just ran the back test of 2010-2011 for -110 not playing money lines.
A win 37
A loss 49
B win 27
B loss 22
Net -10.43 unitsComment -
This is using the 7/5 systemComment -
The limit is right. I'm just doing my own verification. While limit and Wallco I'm sure are great people, I can't put money into things without evidence. This is cash, can't just go believing everyone. If you prefer for me to keep my results to myself I can do that.Comment -
This is my opinion. When the A bets where losing at the beginning of the season, every one was saying "Only follow the B and C bets for bigger units." Then the A bets started winning like 5-6 in a row. Each season is going to be a little different. Just follow the system as it is. A,B,C.Comment -
dlunc, the reason for using 5 units and 7 units in this discussion is to provide a baseline reference against the traditional systems of A, B, C and D chases to win 1 unit. The 2 chase systems under discussion have a total risk: JM 3 point buy to the C Bet at odds of -182 risks 21.40 units and the -110 chase to D Bet risks 18.45 units. So, when testing out different betting strategies in chase systems,we need to use multiples of 1 unit and work within the max risks of 21.4 and 18.45 units.
Once the optimum strategy has been calculated from back testing, the system can then be published with the 5/7 (or whatever the ratios) simplified to 1 (larger) unit and other multiples of 1 unit. So, yes, 1 and 1.4 units might well be the ultimate strategy.Comment
