John Morrison 2011-12 NBA Thread

**cmdyrds** · 01-10-12, 04:36 PM

miami isn't as they are ruled out via the filter noted i believe

If a team starts a road series in conference followed by three consecutive out of conference games, only play the team if they lost all their preceding road games by more than 3 points ATS before the start of the three out of conference games.

**Kev the Brit** · 01-10-12, 04:46 PM

Originally posted by jcygts6

I think miami heat is a v1 jm play tonight

Miami won an in-conference V3 A Bet on 1/5, so they are filtered out of JM NBA tonight.

However, Miami is a Chase110 B bet tonight.

GL guys

**knugen** · 01-10-12, 05:20 PM

Detroit is à B bet in chase110 system, but i dont think Miami are!?

**Wallco99** · 01-10-12, 05:24 PM

Originally posted by Maxi_EV

Wallco:

can you please go answer our question in your nhl gold thread.

Thanks

I did, I just got home.

**stevex** · 01-10-12, 05:24 PM

Any one else going to play the 2nd half of a teams road trip (IE: Cleveland tonight)?

**Wallco99** · 01-10-12, 05:28 PM

Originally posted by Kev the Brit

Miami won an in-conference V3 A Bet on 1/5, so they are filtered out of JM NBA tonight.

However, Miami is a Chase110 B bet tonight.

GL guys

Where in the hell are you coming up with that. It is not a play, and even if it was, it wouldn't be a (B), since we never played the (A). For anyone who may be confused MIAMI IS NOT A PLAY IN CHASE 110 OR JM NBA.

**Wallco99** · 01-10-12, 05:30 PM

Originally posted by stevex

Any one else going to play the 2nd half of a teams road trip (IE: Cleveland tonight)?

No, I am not going to start playing by changed rules just to create more action during a shortened season. Without any backtesting, this could be a recipe for disaster.

**stevex** · 01-10-12, 05:32 PM

Kev the Brit likes to make random things up a lot, don't mind him

BTW would like to get your input JW Cash on some thing if your on here....

I pushed my JM V1 magic bet the other night (I play -110 spreads) and am using a labby. Do I either A) Continue the magic series on the same labby line (as if that A bet lost and just add to the line), or B) Do I move on to the next series (Nets tomorrow), just using the same risk numbers (as if the magic series never happened)? Just some food for thought, but figured I'd ask since I break down each version into there own labby line...

**DollarBill10** · 01-10-12, 05:37 PM

Originally posted by jcygts6

I think miami heat is a v1 jm play tonight

Where did this pick come from?

**Kev the Brit** · 01-10-12, 05:48 PM

Originally posted by Wallco99

Where in the hell are you coming up with that. It is not a play, and even if it was, it wouldn't be a (B), since we never played the (A). For anyone who may be confused MIAMI IS NOT A PLAY IN CHASE 110 OR JM NBA.

Yeh, sorry, Wallco and all. I confused Miami with Detroit. Dunno how I did that.

**Wallco99** · 01-10-12, 06:06 PM

No problem KEV

**Wallco99** · 01-10-12, 06:07 PM

Originally posted by DollarBill10

Where did this pick come from?

Why would you ask this after my post with the
GIANT RED LETTERS

**stevex** · 01-10-12, 06:13 PM

Actually that's a good general question, what do you do when a bet pushes? Continue the series or move on?

As per JM Rules I should say...

**DollarBill10** · 01-10-12, 06:16 PM

Originally posted by Wallco99

Why would you ask this after my post with the
GIANT RED LETTERS

Well Wallco, I didn't read all the way down before I responded to it...

**Wallco99** · 01-10-12, 06:29 PM

Originally posted by DollarBill10

Well Wallco, I didn't read all the way down before I responded to it...

Well then, that would be a good reason.

**Wallco99** · 01-10-12, 06:33 PM

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2011-12 System to date: 8-0 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +8.00 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 1 (-1.10 units)

(1/9/12):
#8 Detroit (+14) (A) - Loss
#9 New Orleans (+14) (A) - Win

v1 Plays
(A) 7-2
(B) 1-0
(C) -
(D) -

V2 Plays
In production

Games for (1/10/12):
#8 Dallas @ Detroit (+6½) (B) (7:35 pm EST)

We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a zero point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day, if the lines change, but it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from my post. On occasion, we will have plays that go head-head. The system will grade ALL bets, regardless of opponents, how you wish to play these games is your choice.

**GGPLAYER** · 01-10-12, 06:46 PM

Everyone chill

**Kev the Brit** · 01-10-12, 07:23 PM

Originally posted by stevex

Actually that's a good general question, what do you do when a bet pushes? Continue the series or move on? As per JM Rules I should say...

My view FWIW is that a push counts as a loss to the system. However, a pushed A bet provides an opportunity to pass the on the rest of the series without loss. A pushed C Bet must create a loss with only rare D Bets available. Its only a pushed B bet that needs serious thought. My view is that the C Bet should be played. The JM rules can be interpreted this way.

**thelimit0310** · 01-10-12, 07:32 PM

Just to sort a few things out here. If you look at my schedule on page 3 for JM NBA, you will see that Miami would have been a play today IF they lost both SU and ATS in both their games on January 5th and 7th. This did not happen, so Miami is NOT a play. Cleveland is an optional play for anyone looking for more action, it follows all the JM system criteria EXCEPT that the series takes place in the same road trip as the previous official series took place in. These plays are not part of the system. Please keep this in mind and I hope this settles the uproar.

**stevex** · 01-10-12, 07:34 PM

I just thought about it for a second. Thanks for the input Kev (long day at work). Since I'm paying -110 odds, a push will be considered a loss for me and how I set my labby up. I did that last year and profited, so sticking to the same rules.

So Magic will be a B bet for me..

**Soldier4Life** · 01-10-12, 09:23 PM

Thank You..cmdyrds. Thats a lot easier then the way I posted it.

**Soldier4Life** · 01-10-12, 09:25 PM

Thank you Mitchp I will check it out.

**1gamer** · 01-10-12, 11:37 PM

Detroit came surprisenly close to covering +6 considering they were down almost 30 points with 3 minutes to go in the 4th. Let's hope the effort carries over to the (C) bet with Bucks.

**Joey1031** · 01-11-12, 05:03 AM

Originally posted by thelimit0310

For everyone wanting a backtest on Wallco's method I did a quick backtest from last years record, the results are:

Version 1 results = +69.16 units
Version 2 results = +54.72 units
Version 3 results = +80.16 units
Net units won = +204.04

This is to win 1 unit on A, win net 3 units on B, and win net 5 units on C. Losses equate to -17.28 units. Keep in mind this is with 3 points bought. Meaning that there could be 1-2 more series losses then what was posted. Even with another loss per version taken into account, the total units won is still at ~152.2 , 2 losses more per version and your still at over 100 units at +100.36. Winning over 100 units with a total of 13 losses over all versions is pretty incredible.

The amount of gross units using this method is incredible, but unfortunately the losses take a toll on them, making net units roughly half of what it could be, but still a fantastic outcome nonetheless. I commend you Wallco, you probably weren't even trying, but you may have just created the greatest JM money management system I have ever seen.

Should be noted that this year there are obviously not nearly the amount of plays, so the outcome could look different and even go negative depending on how the season plays out.

These numbers good great and all, but realistically, how much % of your bankroll does "a unit" represent? If each unit is equal to 1% of my starting bankroll, it seems you'd reach ruin before the end of the year. Each loss is taking away 17.xx% of my bankroll, and having 2 possibly 3 series open at a time. For example.. if we have 2 Bs and 1 C.. how much of my bankroll is waiting in limbo??? It seems you'd need to have thousands and thousands of dollars to see any sort of real profit.

Example, starting small.. $1000 bankroll. Would would be an accurate, affordable, reasonable amount to use as a unit size. 1% would almost seem to high..

..input?

**Wallco99** · 01-11-12, 05:54 AM

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2011-12 System to date: 8-0 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +8.00 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 1 (-3.41 units)

(1/10/12):
#8 Detroit (+6½) (B) - Loss

v1 Plays
(A) 7-2
(B) 1-1
(C) -
(D) -

V2 Plays
In production

There are no system plays for (1/11/12):
#8 Resumes (B) on 1/12/12

We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a zero point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day, if the lines change, but it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from my post. On occasion, we will have plays that go head-head. The system will grade ALL bets, regardless of opponents, how you wish to play these games is your choice.

**Wilba** · 01-11-12, 06:34 AM

Originally posted by GGPLAYER

Everyone chill

haha JM threads always get heated, it's a given..

**Wilba** · 01-11-12, 06:37 AM

Originally posted by Soldier4Life

Wallco99, or Wilba, or thelimit0310 or Anyone that can please direct me to the best source.

sorry man I got no idea for what ur after...

**Swan4brownlow** · 01-11-12, 07:36 AM

Sac only +5...?

**adidas-b 88** · 01-11-12, 09:41 AM

Originally posted by Swan4brownlow

Sac only +5...?

why and how?? Their 0-4 on the road

**thelimit0310** · 01-11-12, 10:55 AM

Originally posted by Joey1031

These numbers good great and all, but realistically, how much % of your bankroll does "a unit" represent? If each unit is equal to 1% of my starting bankroll, it seems you'd reach ruin before the end of the year. Each loss is taking away 17.xx% of my bankroll, and having 2 possibly 3 series open at a time. For example.. if we have 2 Bs and 1 C.. how much of my bankroll is waiting in limbo??? It seems you'd need to have thousands and thousands of dollars to see any sort of real profit.

Example, starting small.. $1000 bankroll. Would would be an accurate, affordable, reasonable amount to use as a unit size. 1% would almost seem to high..

..input?

Hey Joey, thanks for the questions! I not only hope you read my response, but I hope everyone here does as well as this information about my method should be out there for everyone to see and understand!

Let me say right now that slightly less than 1% is what I would personally do, but you can easily get away with doing 1% if you don't choke under pressure situations.

Next, just a quick fact, using this method a series loss is actually LESS than the traditional method. So, if you feel comfortable at 1% traditionally, you have no reason not to carry that confidence over to this method.

Now, a quick way to find out what's best for unit size is to calculate what a loss equals, and divide it through your bankroll. So if you had $1000, and used $10 units (I would personally go lower, perhaps $6 or $7), a loss would be 10*15.8 = $158. So 1000/158 = 6.3 this means that you can lose 6 series (that's losing both B and C) in a row right off the bat without winning any other bets. How often does that happen to you? Going down to $6, your losses total $94.8. 1000/94.8 = 10.5, now you can lose 10 series right from the get go without winning anything at all before you'd bust. How often does this system have 10 C losses in a row without any winning bets at all?

Now lets talk recuperation after a loss. If you do lose the 15.8 units on a series loss, it will take at most only 4 winning series to recuperate the entire unit amount. But you can do it in as little as 2-3 series wins depending on the situation. Just to compare that with the traditional method, it would take you 16 series wins to recuperate. Which sounds better to you?

To quickly answer your units in play question - yes, in this method having 2 Bs and 1 C in play at the same time would = more units in play than the traditional method. But are you expecting all 3 of those series to inevitably lose? That's highly unlikely, and even if 1 of the plays turns into a series loss in the end, I have shown you can easily recuperate and survive. Not to mention actually be out less money than the traditional method (because as I stated a series loss in this method is less costly than the traditional way).

Like anything in the world of sports investment, don't be greedy and have the balls to do what is required of you and you will be successful here. Remember, a series loss in this method is less than the traditional method. Recuperating losses is much easier than the traditional method. And the profit margin is much higher than the traditional method. I hope this answered your questions and helped you gain a little confidence!

**adidas-b 88** · 01-11-12, 10:57 AM

Sac is + 4.5 now....

**juice050** · 01-11-12, 12:12 PM

Originally posted by adidas-b 88

why and how?? Their 0-4 on the road

torontos not all that.

**keemosabi** · 01-11-12, 12:27 PM

thelimit, are you going to put up one of your usual posts detailing tonight's plays?

edit: Also, how have most people decided to play the system? The discussion going on in this thread is great but what have most people settled on? Skip the 'A' bet? Wallco's 1-3-5 method?

**bisturis** · 01-11-12, 12:50 PM

I'm betting A, B, and C bets using the Labby method.

Wallco's 1, 3, 5, is almost like a chase and I don't have the bankroll for that. Wish I did though.

**thelimit0310** · 01-11-12, 12:53 PM

JM January 10

V2 SACRAMENTO +12.5 @ Philadelphia (A) LOSS

RESULTS PER VERSION

Version 1
A: 4-2
B: 0-2
C: 2-0

Version 2
A: 0-2
B: 1-0
C: 0-0

Version 3
A: 5-6
B: 5-1
C: 1-0

Totals
A: 9-10
B: 6-3
C: 3-0