LTA's NBA Plays

[Catchn_Picks]

Win or lose, Minnesota is playing their hearts out.

[ifiwaspresident]

No, not for the purposes of calculating the expected value of my play on the Knicks/Bulls under (199).

When you mention the early movement, I believe you are thinking that because the total opened at 197.5 and moved up to 199 where I bought it before eventually moving back down to 198 where it closed, that traditional line movement theories would point to the over. However, from a pure EV calculation standpoint according to the formula in the links, the aforementioned line movement has absolutely no bearing whatsoever.

Just like you think "Greek" is no longer sharp, I tend to think that the whole premise of "reading the lines" and "fading the public" is an antiquated concept that is losing its relevancy on an almost daily basis. The books know what everyone is thinking when the public is on one side and the line moves on the other side. RLM is basically a 50/50 proposition these days.

Despite what people say, I think you look at more factors than just line movement because you understand from your experience that solely reading lines in order to make plays will not make you a long term winner. Instead, I think you know that we all need to be able to read lines in conjunction with quantitative (statistical) and qualitative (situational) analysis in order to succeed.

More and more very intelligent people are getting into sports investing on both sides (books and players). This means that this business as we know it is in a state of evolution. We all need to stay ahead of the game, unlike some of the dinosaurs on this site who will argue that "reading the lines" is the only way to profit, meanwhile they are all in the red. Just like in life, we either adapt or we end up going extinct.

If I'm reading you correctly, in layman's terms you're saying that using the line as a starting point and figuring which side it will end up on is a fundamentally flawed approach to the process. Rather, you need to project the flow and outcome of a particular contest based on basically everything BUT the line (qualitative and quantitative), then wager according to the deltas between your analysis and the line. Yes, no, STFU?

[Love The Action]

So with all that being said, why wouldn't beating the closing number be just as antiquated as everything else?

That question makes no sense. It's not about beating the closer, it's about making +ev plays. The closing number is just one variable in the overall calculation.

As far as antiquated, I would venture to guess that very few people on this site know how to calculate the expected value of their play, while 95% know how to look for RLM. I'll leave it up to you to decide which concept the books fear more....

[Prof Bungletree]

I think covers does a great job.

http://scores.covers.com/custom-scores.aspx

Pick just the games you are betting and in game pace calculator for totals play.

CBSSports.com/my/scores has something very similar where you can pick the games you want to follow. It's also much more work friendly, as it's more likely to get through security.

[Catchn_Picks]

Great pick on Mn LTA...put a sweetener on the ML too.

[Love The Action]

If I'm reading you correctly, in layman's terms you're saying that using the line as a starting point and figuring which side it will end up on is a fundamentally flawed approach to the process. Rather, you need to project the flow and outcome of a particular contest based on basically everything BUT the line (qualitative and quantitative), then wager according to the deltas between your analysis and the line. Yes, no, STFU?

Sort of. However, in order to make a +ev play you need to predict how the market is going to react to a certain number. In order to do that, you need to project your own "fair" number that does not include public perception (i.e. a quantitative based number). Once you add your qualitative analysis to what you believe a fair number is, you should know which way the line is going to move. Conceivably, if you know how the market is going to react to every opener, you will know whether to jump on a number early or wait. Once you have your fair number and you properly anticipate the line movement by locking up the best available number for your play, you can make an expected value calculation.

That doesn't mean a play with +EV will not lose, but if you make enough of them over time you will be a long term winner. Plus, there are +EV plays to be made on both sides of a play. For example, both of the following scenarios are +EV: (1) player A projects the Bulls to be -10 favorites, bets the Bulls opener at -8 and it closes at -9.5; (2) player B projects the Knicks at +6 and waits to bet the Knicks at +9.5. Both bets are +EV, but only one will win. However, over 1,000 plays, as long as you making these +EV bets you are going to win more than you lose.

[ronnieseah]

i like this.

Win or lose, Minnesota is playing their hearts out.

[Dave88]

Good Call LTA and very well played TWolves.

[Notorious_Donk]

Damn I wish we coulda hit that under. Onto the next one!

[fitguy67]

Has nothing to do with where the line opens. All you're trying to do as a sports investor is to make +EV plays. You can calculate your +EV edge as long as you have three factors: (1) a projected or fair number absent public perception (for me, I had this one set at 195), (2) the number you bet (in this case 199) and (3) the closing number (in this 198). Now, in order to do this you need to know that your "fair" line is consistently accurate within an acceptable standard deviation. In my case, I have proven my model's numbers over a large sample and have confidence in the lines it projects.

Here is a solid thread where SK explains it quite well.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/266449-calculating-expected-value-its-use.html

Here's a great thread from Ganchrow with about expected value from a theoretical perspective.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...ical-hold.html

the last time i read something you recommended (pinny's page on "beating the closer") it woke me up to the importance of really line-shopping for bets...rather than just "putting bets on"

i've just bookmarked and skimmed these and will dive in soon

thanks for trying to teach us some valuable fishing skills along the way...in addition to the 12-15 fish you throw at us each week...all for an amazingly affordable price...

[ClausensHands]

Just like you think "Greek" is no longer sharp, I tend to think that the whole premise of "reading the lines" and "fading the public" is an antiquated concept that is losing its relevancy on an almost daily basis. The books know what everyone is thinking when the public is on one side and the line moves on the other side. RLM is basically a 50/50 proposition these days.

I think it's pretty obvious that you can't simply bet RLM. But as far as fading the public, which I see as a completely different concept altogether, are you saying you don't feel even better about a bet that you like for other qualitative/quantitative when the public money is against you? I guess I'm kind of confused why you seem to be grouping and dismissing these "techniques" (such as "reading the lines") as antiquated while it sounds like you still consider them to be part of the overall equation.

[CheeseHead]

I think now might be a good time to start fading Boston on this road trip. We might want to target March 17 also, when they play @ Denver..a night after playing in Sacramento. They're going to get tired.

[Love The Action]

I think it's pretty obvious that you can't simply bet RLM. But as far as fading the public, which I see as a completely different concept altogether, are you saying you don't feel even better about a bet that you like for other qualitative/quantitative when the public money is against you? I guess I'm kind of confused why you seem to be grouping and dismissing these "techniques" (such as "reading the lines") as antiquated while it sounds like you still consider them to be part of the overall equation.

My contrarian nature prefers that my plays be opposite a clear public fave. However, whether I am backing a public play or not has no bearing on my decision to make a play. Just like RLM, whether or not a play is "public" should be used more to decide how much to wager as opposed to whether to make the play. Perhaps I would think twice about making a big wager if there is RLM against me or if it's a big public play. However, neither of those factors matter when actually deciding whether to make a play. At this point of my sports investing career, I really don't care if I'm on the public side or not (although by nature prefer to be against the public).

The fact of the matter is that blindly following RLM or fading the public in today's market will lead you to the poor house. This is not me saying this either, this is some of the smartest minds in the business.

Check out old pod casts about this issue here: http://sports.espn.go.com/espnradio/...ive?id=5395837

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season Recap 3/12/2012

1 - 1 = -0.1x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

101 - 82 = +18.45x

We're suffering through some variance right now as evidenced by that Bulls game. Just have to keep working hard and making good plays. Good luck on Tuesday.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/13/2012

Play #1

Heat (-3)(-120) 1x (Locked)

I don't think there's any way this one gets to 3 on it's own, so I'm buying the hook here. As we have discussed ad nauseum, it's not a +ev strategy long-term, but can be profitable on occasion. Let's not forget a few weeks ago when we decided against buying the hook and lost on the Sixers by that half point. In games like this, lines are sharp and I will pay the insurance. In this game, I have Miami set at -4.5 but think they cover this one rather easily. One of the biggest reasons I like Miami in this game is the loss of Richardson for the Magic. Over the last couple of seasons, he has been pivotal to the Magic in this series as they have won the games he played well in, while they have lost the games he either struggled or sat out. In this game, Richardson will sit and I think that really hurts the Magic because it takes some much needed athleticism off the floor and puts in defensive liabilities such as Redick. Plus, Miami is coming in fully rested and ready to roll off two days off while Orland is coming in off one day of rest that was filled with trade rumor talk. At this stage, these rumors surrounding Howard cannot be having a positive effect on him or his team. I don't necessarily think this is a big factor for tomorrow because the Magic should get "up" for this game, but if these rumors distract just a little from the Magic's preparation for this game then we have the edge. Miami has a clear edge in almost every statistical category on offense and defense, except for three point offense, defensive rebounds and points in the paint. However, Miami is not too far in those categories anyway. As long as Miami is motivated for this game, they should cover the 3 points. Last time these teams played in Orlando over a month ago, I backed the Magic as 3.5 point dogs and cashed with an outright win. In this case, I think Miami wins by 5 or more. I have Miami set at -4.5, giving us 1.5 points of variance to the line we bought. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Heat for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Warriors/Kings over (206) 1x (Locked)

I'm jumping on this one now as I see it going up by tomorrow morning to 207 or more. I have this game set at 209.5 giving us over 3 points of value. Both teams are top 10 in PACE and bottom 10 in DEFF and most other controlling defensive categories. I just don't see what motivation either team has to play defense in this game. In addition, for those wondering, yes I know that Stephen Curry might sit, but it really doesn't matter to me. With Thomas seeming at the controls for Sacramento and their main guys healthy with Thornton, Evans and Cousins, I see the scoreboard lighting up with guys looking to pad their offensive stats. Sacramento is top 5 in points in the paint and fast-break points, while GSW is top ten in OEFF and EFG%. The common denominator is that both defenses are weak against both opposing offensive strengths. As I mentioned above, I have this one set at 209.5 giving us over 3 points of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[hawley]

Like both those plays LTA.

Gotta take my hat off to you for putting in the time everyday as well. Can't believe when I see people complaining about missing your plays etc in here. As I have always said you are a class act

[BluexBlue]

Woah! Super early plays! I see winners!

[PS3]

Wow early plays! I love the GSW/SAC Over play!

[sixzero]

Thanks for the early plays LTA

[Roto97]

Starting yesterday, I have decided to follow all your plays*. Picking and choosing is killing me, time to avg out the peaks and valleys.


*One exception is any Bobcat plays. I will have to see how i feel about that particular kitten play.

[Dtown13]

Thanks for the early plays LTA. I tailed the last couple that didn't come out in our favor and wasn't able to get on the Minn game because I missed it somehow so I am hoping to get back on the winning track here. Thanks for all your hard work. It's much appreciated.

[Roto97]

Heat line already at -4 on Bovada.


And does anyone know, why Bovada never posts the totals till the next day??

I can never get the opening line, as I can't get near a computer till later in the evening.

[aussieH]

Was able to get the gsw total at 205.5. I love it when you mention that both both teams will be looking to pad theis stats.

[JM92]

Just the plays I was thinking about yesterday! This always feels really nice to be honest. Let's get these two!

[NOREGRETS]

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/13/2012

Play #1

Heat (-3)(-120) 1x (Locked)

I don't think there's any way this one gets to 3 on it's own, so I'm buying the hook here. As we have discussed ad nauseum, it's not a +ev strategy long-term, but can be profitable on occasion. Let's not forget a few weeks ago when we decided against buying the hook and lost on the Sixers by that half point. In games like this, lines are sharp and I will pay the insurance. In this game, I have Miami set at -4.5 but think they cover this one rather easily. One of the biggest reasons I like Miami in this game is the loss of Richardson for the Magic. Over the last couple of seasons, he has been pivotal to the Magic in this series as they have won the games he played well in, while they have lost the games he either struggled or sat out. In this game, Richardson will sit and I think that really hurts the Magic because it takes some much needed athleticism off the floor and puts in defensive liabilities such as Redick. Plus, Miami is coming in fully rested and ready to roll off two days off while Orland is coming in off one day of rest that was filled with trade rumor talk. At this stage, these rumors surrounding Howard cannot be having a positive effect on him or his team. I don't necessarily think this is a big factor for tomorrow because the Magic should get "up" for this game, but if these rumors distract just a little from the Magic's preparation for this game then we have the edge. Miami has a clear edge in almost every statistical category on offense and defense, except for three point offense, defensive rebounds and points in the paint. However, Miami is not too far in those categories anyway. As long as Miami is motivated for this game, they should cover the 3 points. Last time these teams played in Orlando over a month ago, I backed the Magic as 3.5 point dogs and cashed with an outright win. In this case, I think Miami wins by 5 or more. I have Miami set at -4.5, giving us 1.5 points of variance to the line we bought. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Heat for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Warriors/Kings over (206) 1x (Locked)

I'm jumping on this one now as I see it going up by tomorrow morning to 207 or more. I have this game set at 209.5 giving us over 3 points of value. Both teams are top 10 in PACE and bottom 10 in DEFF and most other controlling defensive categories. I just don't see what motivation either team has to play defense in this game. In addition, for those wondering, yes I know that Stephen Curry might sit, but it really doesn't matter to me. With Thomas seeming at the controls for Sacramento and their main guys healthy with Thornton, Evans and Cousins, I see the scoreboard lighting up with guys looking to pad their offensive stats. Sacramento is top 5 in points in the paint and fast-break points, while GSW is top ten in OEFF and EFG%. The common denominator is that both defenses are weak against both opposing offensive strengths. As I mentioned above, I have this one set at 209.5 giving us over 3 points of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Miami is up to the -4 to-4.5 range and the gsw/kings over is up to 207 just as we predicted in last night's writeups. Let's just hope these lines continue to move in our favor and don't inch back in the other direction. Off to work....might have some additional plays later. Good luck tonight.

[ClausensHands]

Heat line already at -4 on Bovada.

And does anyone know, why Bovada never posts the totals till the next day??

I can never get the opening line, as I can't get near a computer till later in the evening.

Its a major disadvantage for placing wagers with Bovada. They always wait until the early money is in before they post their lines. Totals don't usually show up until noon ET. Heat already -4.5 -105 and when they finally list Warriors game it will probably be 207 -115 if not higher as LTA predicted.

Not to mention that they are completely content with pulling (or not posting lines at all) if there's even a whiff of some sort of perceived line shift. I've seen many times where they will pull a line from the book in the morning, and it will reappear right before game time with the exact same price/line.

Good luck to everyone today.

[Catchn_Picks]

Its a major disadvantage for placing wagers with Bovada. They always wait until the early money is in before they post their lines. Totals don't usually show up until noon ET. Heat already -4.5 -105 and when they finally list Warriors game it will probably be 207 -115 if not higher as LTA predicted.

Not to mention that they are completely content with pulling (or not posting lines at all) if there's even a whiff of some sort of perceived line shift. I've seen many times where they will pull a line from the book in the morning, and it will reappear right before game time with the exact same price/line.

Good luck to everyone today.

They have always been a scared book...deathly afraid that every favorite will hit. I would get a 5D account and use Bovada/Bodog for your dog plays. BetUS is another one...I use them well when they jack the price of favs too high.

[dynasty27]

like em both lets go tonight boys! I am also on the OKC over at 204 and am leaning SAC -3, whats everyone else thinkin tonight

[No coincidences]

Miami is up to the -4 to-4.5 range and the gsw/kings over is up to 207 just as we predicted in last night's writeups. Let's just hope these lines continue to move in our favor and don't inch back in the other direction. Off to work....might have some additional plays later. Good luck tonight.

I find it interesting that Pinny was juicing Miami as much as they were, though, before they moved it to 4.

[BayArea888]

I find it interesting that Pinny was juicing Miami as much as they were, though, before they moved it to 4.

yea i thought i was the only one to think weird of it...

[fitguy67]

LTA isn't Heisenberg (known for "the uncertainty principle")...more like The Amazing Kreskin (knower of all things) when deciding to lock (& thankfully post) plays the night before...

after LTA hops on the boat starts sailing away...and usually in the predicted direction...meaning we can expect a ton of "is it ok to take it at _____?" questions all day today

i missed the two boats...and unless they come back round to pick up more passengers at/near the quoted prices...i'll just have to miss one or both of them...i consider it an opportunity to cultivate discipline (and to lock in a new "chek thread for night-before picks before powering down" habit)

[dynasty27]

How do you think this trade talk makes the rest of the magic team feel? When Orlando management is sounding desperate and willing to get rid of anyone to make Dwight happy? Add to that earlier in the year when Dwight basically said he wants a better PG than Nelson...does Dwight continue to play hard and the rest of the team go soft, or vica versa

[icewatta23]

The Magic have been dealing with this trade talk all year, so I dont think it will hv a big effect on the outcome. The Heat are the better team. This game will show that Orlando needs more pieces to be a contender....and it will take a lot more than Monta Ellis. But that line jumping from 3.5 to 4.5 scares me.

[Catchn_Picks]

How do you think this trade talk makes the rest of the magic team feel? When Orlando management is sounding desperate and willing to get rid of anyone to make Dwight happy? Add to that earlier in the year when Dwight basically said he wants a better PG than Nelson...does Dwight continue to play hard and the rest of the team go soft, or vica versa

At first when I heard on sports talk that Howard wasn't going to be traded I thought that this would create some stability for the Magic tonight to build a good game around.

Then I heard that the Magic offered him the ability to fire the COACH AND GM if he would stay and be happy for the rest of the year.

Say what???????????????

Think Van Gundy will be happy tonight? So what immoral acts does he have to perform on Howard to remain his coach???

Is Howard that good? Why don't you just give him the team and be done with it?

Stupid is as stupid does. This is stupid. I think it can hurt the team tonight and for the rest of the year. Go Heat!!