miss miss miss misssssssssssss
-
Comment -
Need a miss by NY then finally giving up.Comment -
ahhhh ****.. sobComment -
what a horrible way to end itComment -
Jesus what a sick ending. Bulls get the stop and get the rebound and then turn it over. So grossComment -
Damn it...almost had it. Turnover at the end by the bulls cost us, didn't look like the knicks planned on fouling either. Oh well, on to the next one. Go twolves.Comment -
Wow...speechless.
Rose holds onto the ball and I think it is over.Comment -
Tough way to lose....nothing but variance there. The gambling gods owe us for this one. Let's hope they make it up to us on a big play of 2x or more.
Comment -
So dirty!!! We had thatComment -
Unlucky folks - LTA had it right again. All you can do is make the value play. Thanks again LTA. Go Wolves, and get 'em tomorrow.Comment -
I hedged live at u208.5 between 3rd and 4th so I only lost the juice, but damn I thought I was doubling up for awhile there. Good call LTA. Forces of nature conspired against us, if by forces of nature you mean the referees.Comment -
Only in the NBA. LMFAO. Im gonna start leaving the bulls alone they are very tough to cap their defense is not what it should be.Comment -
maybe we shoulda went with the over
Comment -
i'm pissed about losing the close one NOW, after it's really DONE...and starting to hate how every game is 46 minutes of basketball that takes about 90 minutes...followed by 2 minutes of contrived pussy-fouling/free-throw carnival-gaming that takes damn near 45 minutes (the coaches are to blame...it's not worth the effort if you're down more than 2 possessions per minute remaining...and it really screws up the entertainment value for the fans...turning end of the game into a goddam agonizing ordeal...and that's for those without a bet on it)Last edited by fitguy67; 03-12-12, 09:54 PM.Comment -
You gotta believe the Heat get some revenge tommorow, no? Might be Dwight's last game in Orlando, though...Comment -
In the end NYK coach D'Antoni had an excellent game plan to surprise Chicago. It happened to contribute to our demise. They had a plan of penetration and drawing fouls and it worked, kept them in the game and got to the foul line. A total of 41 points were made for the game at the line. That is quite high.
Good game plan Knicks, please contact before the game next time to let us in on the plan...promise we won't tell anyone.
Meanwhile, the Wolves are leading in the game.Comment -
LTA play is right. Those refs all betted OVER in that game. That many fouls is my proof of that!
Comment -
You made the right call LTA. Sound analysis. Results aren't indicative of your skill. I'll be looking to tail again. BOL to all for the rest of the night.Comment -
It wasn't so much the Knicks plan as the refs calling some phantom calls. I saw at least 5 calls that were completely whiffs with no contact that were called. The Knicks had 31 FT attempts and the Bulls 28, so I would say you are giving Dantoni too much credit. Whenever you get 59 FT attempts, you know the over has a good shot at hitting. We still almost cashed this one despite all those calls. I'm not disappointed in this call at all. We had a 7 point cushion with 50 seconds left, plus I beat the closer by 1 point. That's a +EV play through and through.Comment -
I wouldn't be suprised if that will be their gameplan from here on. Mike Woodson's defensive schemes are being exposed and its eliminating possesions, contrary to D'antoni's philosophy. D'antoni is starting to feel the heat so he has to go with what he knows....Run, Run, RunComment -
You guys are both wrong. The Bulls are rated #2 overall in the league in DEFF at 98.6 over the last 5 games (i.e. since Deng has been injured). The Bulls are still playing elite defense so you guys might want to reevaluate your thoughts on this subject. http://www.nbastuffer.com/2011-2012_...ced_Stats.htmlComment -
They have been top 5 in PACE all year though. It's not like they haven't been running all year. The problem is the players lack of effort on the defensive end. Right when Chandler went down a few games ago, they stopped playing hard D and have not reignited their passion for defense since his return. Defense is "want to" and the knicks have not been giving 100% effort on defense. It has nothing to do with running and eveything to do with a lack of effort on defense.Comment -
Didn't the line open at 197.5 though?
I guess I've never fully understood the concept of "beating the closer" unless you're also considering the opening number. Early money obviously pushed the number up. If the line opened at 200, you locked it in at 199 and it closed at 198, I would agree that beating the closing number was important. I guess I'm confused a little here given the fact that this line moved up before it moved down late.Comment -
Has Deng missed the last 5 games? Thought it was the last 2 or 3? But either way I disagree as Bulls cant beat an elite team without Deng. Heat would kill the Bulls without Deng. He is a big part of our defense. The last 5 games really shows nothing as its only 5 games and thats too small of sample. Dont think they have been playing great teams either
Edit: He has missed the last 2 games only so you are mistaken so I wont rethink anythingComment -
Has nothing to do with where the line opens. All you're trying to do as a sports investor is to make +EV plays. You can calculate your +EV edge as long as you have three factors: (1) a projected or fair number absent public perception (for me, I had this one set at 195), (2) the number you bet (in this case 199) and (3) the closing number (in this 198). Now, in order to do this you need to know that your "fair" line is consistently accurate within an acceptable standard deviation. In my case, I have proven my model's numbers over a large sample and have confidence in the lines it projects.
Here is a solid thread where SK explains it quite well.
Here's a great thread from Ganchrow with about expected value from a theoretical perspective.
Comment -
But the last game was without Noah, which is an even bigger effect on their defense than Deng. Therefore, you can't even look at that game.
Tonight, they played great defense with solid efficiency rating. Butler played great defense at the end as well. If the Knicks only had 20 free throw attempts instead of an abnormally large amount of 31, the Knicks would have score considerably less and this under would have easily cashed. Consequently, I would again recommend that you rethink your previous statement. This under was not lost because of the Bulls defense. GL.Comment -
So early line movement doesn't matter?Has nothing to do with where the line opens. All you're trying to do as a sports investor is to make +EV plays. You can calculate your +EV edge as long as you have three factors: (1) a projected or fair number absent public perception (for me, I had this one set at 195), (2) the number you bet (in this case 199) and (3) the closing number (in this 198). Now, in order to do this you need to know that your "fair" line is consistently accurate within an acceptable standard deviation. In my case, I have proven my model's numbers over a large sample and have confidence in the lines it projects.
Here is a solid thread where SK explains it quite well.
Here's a great thread from Ganchrow with about expected value from a theoretical perspective.
http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...ical-hold.htmlComment -
can anyone recommend a livescore site that have the most update score?Comment -
No, not for the purposes of calculating the expected value of my play on the Knicks/Bulls under (199).
When you mention the early movement, I believe you are thinking that because the total opened at 197.5 and moved up to 199 where I bought it before eventually moving back down to 198 where it closed, that traditional line movement theories would point to the over. However, from a pure EV calculation standpoint according to the formula in the links, the aforementioned line movement has absolutely no bearing whatsoever.
Just like you think "Greek" is no longer sharp, I tend to think that the whole premise of "reading the lines" and "fading the public" is an antiquated concept that is losing its relevancy on an almost daily basis. The books know what everyone is thinking when the public is on one side and the line moves on the other side. RLM is basically a 50/50 proposition these days.
Despite what people say, I think you look at more factors than just line movement because you understand from your experience that solely reading lines in order to make plays will not make you a long term winner. Instead, I think you know that we all need to be able to read lines in conjunction with quantitative (statistical) and qualitative (situational) analysis in order to succeed.
More and more very intelligent people are getting into sports investing on both sides (books and players). This means that this business as we know it is in a state of evolution. We all need to stay ahead of the game, unlike some of the dinosaurs on this site who will argue that "reading the lines" is the only way to profit, meanwhile they are all in the red. Just like in life, we either adapt or we end up going extinct.Comment -
Just want to thank you LTA for your great picks and your write ups. It is greatly appreciated that you take time out of your busy schedule to tells us your picks and give us these great writes. Thank you again. LTA.Comment -
I think covers does a great job.
Pick just the games you are betting and in game pace calculator for totals play.Comment
