WNBA Projections

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  • ebemiss
    Restricted User
    • 05-09-11
    • 364

    #141
    Add

    Los Angeles +6.5 1 unit
    Comment
    • ebemiss
      Restricted User
      • 05-09-11
      • 364

      #142
      Record

      34-26 (+8.60)

      2nd half experiment

      1-1 (-0.03)

      Sunday

      San Antonio +4 1 unit
      Comment
      • ebemiss
        Restricted User
        • 05-09-11
        • 364

        #143
        Record 35-26 (+9.60)

        Tuesday

        Under 165 Atlanta/NY 1 unit
        Comment
        • alamo
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 02-21-09
          • 7131

          #144
          Comment
          • ebemiss
            Restricted User
            • 05-09-11
            • 364

            #145
            add Tuesday

            651 NY +5.5 1 unit
            Comment
            • ebemiss
              Restricted User
              • 05-09-11
              • 364

              #146
              Record 37-26 (+11.60)

              Wednesday Projection

              Location Predicted Line
              at Los Angeles Sparks Connecticut Sun 79 Los Angeles Sparks 78 -1
              Neutral Connecticut Sun 80 Los Angeles Sparks 76 -4
              at Connecticut Sun Connecticut Sun 82 Los Angeles Sparks 75 -7


              Average Pace of Game 156.6
              Away Team Controls Pace 155
              Home Team Controls Pace 158.2
              Comment
              • ebemiss
                Restricted User
                • 05-09-11
                • 364

                #147
                Wednesday

                602 Los Angeles +3
                Comment
                • ebemiss
                  Restricted User
                  • 05-09-11
                  • 364

                  #148
                  Add

                  2nd Half over 81 La/Connecticut (0.5 units)
                  Comment
                  • ebemiss
                    Restricted User
                    • 05-09-11
                    • 364

                    #149
                    Record

                    37-27 (+10.50)

                    2nd half experiment

                    1-2 (-0.58)

                    Thursday

                    Over 157.5 Minnesota/San Antonio 2 units
                    Comment
                    • ebemiss
                      Restricted User
                      • 05-09-11
                      • 364

                      #150
                      Record

                      37-28 (+8.30)

                      Friday

                      Under 144.5 Indiana/Tulsa 1 unit
                      Comment
                      • ebemiss
                        Restricted User
                        • 05-09-11
                        • 364

                        #151
                        add

                        602 Tulsa +9.5 1 unit
                        Comment
                        • ebemiss
                          Restricted User
                          • 05-09-11
                          • 364

                          #152
                          2nd half under 74 Tulsa/Indiana .5 units
                          Comment
                          • ebemiss
                            Restricted User
                            • 05-09-11
                            • 364

                            #153
                            Record

                            37-30 (+6.10)

                            2nd half experiment

                            1-3 (-1.13)

                            Saturday

                            Over 147.5 NY/Washington 2 units
                            Washington +4 1 unit
                            Over 150 Tulsa/San Antonio 1 unit
                            Comment
                            • ebemiss
                              Restricted User
                              • 05-09-11
                              • 364

                              #154
                              Record

                              39-31 (+8.00)

                              2nd half experiment

                              1-3 (-1.13)

                              Sunday

                              Over 157.5 Minnesota/Los Angeles
                              Chicago +2.5

                              1 unit each
                              Last edited by ebemiss; 08-07-11, 10:41 AM. Reason: corrected record
                              Comment
                              • ebemiss
                                Restricted User
                                • 05-09-11
                                • 364

                                #155
                                Record

                                41-31 (+10.00)

                                Tuesday

                                Indiana -6.5
                                Chicago +6.5

                                1 unit each
                                Comment
                                • ebemiss
                                  Restricted User
                                  • 05-09-11
                                  • 364

                                  #156
                                  add

                                  Tuesday

                                  659 Minnesota +1
                                  Comment
                                  • ebemiss
                                    Restricted User
                                    • 05-09-11
                                    • 364

                                    #157
                                    Record

                                    42-33 (+8.80)

                                    Wednesday

                                    Over 186 Atlanta/Phoenix

                                    1.5 units
                                    Comment
                                    • ebemiss
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 05-09-11
                                      • 364

                                      #158
                                      Thursday, not Wednesday
                                      Comment
                                      • pentaguard
                                        SBR Hustler
                                        • 06-01-10
                                        • 65

                                        #159
                                        Atlanta/Phoenix over 5 unit
                                        Comment
                                        • ebemiss
                                          Restricted User
                                          • 05-09-11
                                          • 364

                                          #160
                                          Adding

                                          Over 150.5 Connecticut/San Antonio
                                          Phoenix -6

                                          1 unit each

                                          and another .5 to

                                          Over 186 Phoenix/Atlanta 2 units total
                                          Comment
                                          • alamo
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 02-21-09
                                            • 7131

                                            #161
                                            Originally posted by ebemiss
                                            Adding Over 150.5 Connecticut/San Antonio Phoenix -6 1 unit each and another .5 to Over 186 Phoenix/Atlanta 2 units total
                                            Comment
                                            • ebemiss
                                              Restricted User
                                              • 05-09-11
                                              • 364

                                              #162
                                              Originally posted by alamo
                                              Thank you. Last time you stopped by to encourage me, I swept my 2 plays. Hopefully you'll bring me good luck again tonight. Keep up the good work.
                                              Comment
                                              • ebemiss
                                                Restricted User
                                                • 05-09-11
                                                • 364

                                                #163
                                                Late addition

                                                San Antonio +6

                                                Over 91 1st half Pho/Atl

                                                1 unit each
                                                Comment
                                                • ebemiss
                                                  Restricted User
                                                  • 05-09-11
                                                  • 364

                                                  #164
                                                  2ND half "project" play

                                                  Over 94.5 Pho/Atl 0.5 units
                                                  Comment
                                                  • ebemiss
                                                    Restricted User
                                                    • 05-09-11
                                                    • 364

                                                    #165
                                                    Record

                                                    46-34 (+12.70)

                                                    2nd half experiment

                                                    2-3 (-0.53)

                                                    Friday

                                                    Under 150 NY/Washington 1.5 units
                                                    Comment
                                                    • ebemiss
                                                      Restricted User
                                                      • 05-09-11
                                                      • 364

                                                      #166
                                                      Saturday

                                                      2nd half

                                                      Over 79 Atlanta/Seattle 0.5 units
                                                      Comment
                                                      • ebemiss
                                                        Restricted User
                                                        • 05-09-11
                                                        • 364

                                                        #167
                                                        Record

                                                        47-34 (+14.20)

                                                        2nd half experiment

                                                        2-4 (-1.18)

                                                        Sunday Projections

                                                        Location Predicted Line
                                                        at San Antonio Silver Stars San Antonio Silver Stars 75 Chicago Sky 71 -4
                                                        Neutral San Antonio Silver Stars 74 Chicago Sky 72 -2
                                                        at Chicago Sky Chicago Sky 74 San Antonio Silver Stars 72 -2


                                                        Average Pace of Game 146.1
                                                        Away Team Controls Pace 144.9
                                                        Home Team Controls Pace 147.3

                                                        Location Predicted Line
                                                        at Minnesota Lynx Minnesota Lynx 86 Tulsa Shock 67 -19
                                                        Neutral Minnesota Lynx 85 Tulsa Shock 69 -16
                                                        at Tulsa Shock Minnesota Lynx 83 Tulsa Shock 70 -13


                                                        Average Pace of Game 153.6
                                                        Away Team Controls Pace 152.9
                                                        Home Team Controls Pace 154.3
                                                        Comment
                                                        • ebemiss
                                                          Restricted User
                                                          • 05-09-11
                                                          • 364

                                                          #168
                                                          2nd half

                                                          Under 77.5 Minnesota/Tulsa 0.5 units
                                                          Comment
                                                          • ebemiss
                                                            Restricted User
                                                            • 05-09-11
                                                            • 364

                                                            #169
                                                            Record

                                                            47-34 (+14.20)

                                                            2nd half experiment

                                                            3-4 (-0.68)

                                                            Tuesday

                                                            San Antonio +2 1.5 units
                                                            Under 147.5 San Antonio/Indiana 1 unit

                                                            will post anything else tomorrow
                                                            Comment
                                                            • bleek88
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 01-12-11
                                                              • 6385

                                                              #170
                                                              Watch out for the Sparks tomorrow
                                                              Comment
                                                              • mcontald
                                                                SBR Rookie
                                                                • 02-15-11
                                                                • 35

                                                                #171
                                                                Any chance you could post your projections? You might think no one cares, but I for one do. I thought the trend you mentioned correlating your number and the closing number was pretty interesting..
                                                                Comment
                                                                • ebemiss
                                                                  Restricted User
                                                                  • 05-09-11
                                                                  • 364

                                                                  #172
                                                                  Originally posted by mcontald
                                                                  Any chance you could post your projections? You might think no one cares, but I for one do. I thought the trend you mentioned correlating your number and the closing number was pretty interesting..
                                                                  Since I've started to do that in the beginning of the NBA season last fall, it's really helped my handicapping. I back test each team about 4-5 games using their "current" ranking and compare it with the closing line/total from a few of their previous games. You can't really back test further with the "current" number as they are changing daily.

                                                                  This process helps me compare my numbers to the lines makers. If my numbers are close to theirs based on previous games and then they are now DIFFERENT than theirs on a game today. It may lead me in the direction of a play or help me re-check my numbers to find out why the line is off.

                                                                  Projections

                                                                  Location Predicted Line
                                                                  at New York Liberty New York Liberty 78 Washington Mystics 71 -7
                                                                  Neutral New York Liberty 76 Washington Mystics 72 -4
                                                                  at Washington Mystics New York Liberty 75 Washington Mystics 74 -1


                                                                  Average Pace of Game 148.4
                                                                  Away Team Controls Pace 148.4
                                                                  Home Team Controls Pace 148.4

                                                                  Location Predicted Line
                                                                  at Connecticut Sun Connecticut Sun 79 Minnesota Lynx 79 0
                                                                  Neutral Minnesota Lynx 80 Connecticut Sun 77 -3
                                                                  at Minnesota Lynx Minnesota Lynx 82 Connecticut Sun 76 -6


                                                                  Average Pace of Game 157.6
                                                                  Away Team Controls Pace 155.3
                                                                  Home Team Controls Pace 159.8

                                                                  Location Predicted Line
                                                                  at San Antonio Silver Stars San Antonio Silver Stars 73 Indiana Fever 72 -1
                                                                  Neutral Indiana Fever 74 San Antonio Silver Stars 71 -3
                                                                  at Indiana Fever Indiana Fever 75 San Antonio Silver Stars 70 -5


                                                                  Average Pace of Game 144.9
                                                                  Away Team Controls Pace 146.7
                                                                  Home Team Controls Pace 143.1

                                                                  Location Predicted Line
                                                                  at Phoenix Mercury Phoenix Mercury 88 Seattle Storm 83 -5
                                                                  Neutral Phoenix Mercury 87 Seattle Storm 85 -2
                                                                  at Seattle Storm Seattle Storm 86 Phoenix Mercury 85 -1


                                                                  Average Pace of Game 171.3
                                                                  Away Team Controls Pace 160.5
                                                                  Home Team Controls Pace 182.4

                                                                  Location Predicted Line
                                                                  at Los Angeles Sparks Atlanta Dream 82 Los Angeles Sparks 81 -1
                                                                  Neutral Atlanta Dream 83 Los Angeles Sparks 80 -3
                                                                  at Atlanta Dream Atlanta Dream 85 Los Angeles Sparks 78 -7


                                                                  Average Pace of Game 162.8
                                                                  Away Team Controls Pace 164.4
                                                                  Home Team Controls Pace 161.2
                                                                  Last edited by ebemiss; 08-16-11, 05:04 AM.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • ebemiss
                                                                    Restricted User
                                                                    • 05-09-11
                                                                    • 364

                                                                    #173
                                                                    Originally posted by bleek88
                                                                    Watch out for the Sparks tomorrow
                                                                    Leaning that way myself. Hoping some Atlanta money will push the line up during the day.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • ebemiss
                                                                      Restricted User
                                                                      • 05-09-11
                                                                      • 364

                                                                      #174
                                                                      add

                                                                      NY -7.5
                                                                      Over 147 NY/Washington
                                                                      Over 157.5 Minnesota/Connecticut

                                                                      1 unit each
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • ebemiss
                                                                        Restricted User
                                                                        • 05-09-11
                                                                        • 364

                                                                        #175
                                                                        Add

                                                                        another unit to over 157 Minnesota/Connecticut (2 units total)
                                                                        Under 164 Atlanta/LA 1 unit
                                                                        Comment
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